SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[steveleach]

You can’t lose 20% of your Starlink launch capacity and not have an impact.

You can if launch capacity (booster availability) isn't the primary constraint. Maybe range availability is. 

I'm not saying that's the case, just that I'd be interested in seeing evidence one way or the other.

[Jansen]

You can’t lose 20% of your Starlink launch capacity and not have an impact.

You can if launch capacity (booster availability) isn't the primary constraint. Maybe range availability is. 

I'm not saying that's the case, just that I'd be interested in seeing evidence one way or the other.

SpaceX is the only provider launching from CCSFS or KSC from January through March. The only conflict has been a sounding rocket out of Wallops. So definitely not range constrained in that way.

The primary constraints have been ASDS availability and the issues with B1049 tying up LC-39A for an extended period. Now that LC-39A is launching again, SpaceX is booster constrained again after L22.

Hence the move of B1063. It’s almost perfect timing.

[ZachF]

Two more Starlink launches and SpaceX will have already beaten ULA and Arianespace's combined 2020 ΔV-adjusted tonnage to orbit figures!

Three more and they will have beaten China's 2020 total

It's possible SpaceX will have individual boosters this year that will beat ULA or Arianespace all by themselves

[niwax]

Two more Starlink launches and SpaceX will have already beaten ULA and Arianespace's combined 2020 ΔV-adjusted tonnage to orbit figures!

Three more and they will have beaten China's 2020 total

It's possible SpaceX will have individual boosters this year that will beat ULA or Arianespace all by themselves

They certainly have single boosters that are responsible for a double digit percentage of active satellites. That is pretty bonkers to think about, especially since most of those weigh more than the maximum payload on Electron.

[SMS]

https://twitter.com/SpaceNosey/status/1371142214538178565

[SMS]

https://twitter.com/SpaceNosey/status/1374645210756608001

[Jansen]

SpaceX has a good chance for 5 launches during April thanks to B1063 and B1061. Slight possibility of 6 launches, but ASDS constrained.

[M.E.T.]

Just a question:

What’s the logic behind the current manifest update thread mission list format? Why is there not a line drawn after 2020 to show where 2021 launches start? At the moment it is a rather taxing, squint-eyed, manual exercise to count 2021 launches separately, especially on a phone screen.

[Jansen]

Why is there not a line drawn after 2020 to show where 2021 launches start? At the moment it is a rather taxing, squint-eyed, manual exercise to count 2021 launches separately, especially on a phone screen.

Try viewing it in landscape mode.

But yes, it is probably time to move the 2020 launches to the other list.

[Joffan]

Just a question:

What’s the logic behind the current manifest update thread mission list format? Why is there not a line drawn after 2020 to show where 2021 launches start? At the moment it is a rather taxing, squint-eyed, manual exercise to count 2021 launches separately, especially on a phone screen.

It's good to have a reasonable number of recent launches in the top list. A line to mark off the change of year is a reasonable suggestion though.


2020-12-19  0900/-5   F9   1059.5   L   NROL-108   LEO   .   C-39A   103
---------------------------------------- 2021 --------------------------------------
2021-01-07*2115/-5   F9   1060.4   S   Türksat 5A   GTO   3500   C-40   104


(I can't do the proper formatting but you get the idea)

[allio]

When was the last time that the starlink manifest of confirmed dates was bare? as in they launched yesterday and there is no confirmed date for the next launch of starlink... in fact there are no NET dates now for falcon 9 with the exception of Crew 2 and 3...... Easter holidays?

[gongora]

Starlink dates are not confirmed very far in advance.

[gongora]

 Capella has previously applied back in January for permission to launch two sats on F9 to 53 degree 575km orbit NET April (which would probably make it one of the next two Starlink flights?), and haven't received permission yet.  More filings today for communications with those satellites starting in mid-April from several ground stations, pending approval to launch them.

[Orbiter]

Surprise new F9 first stage going up on the stand - any guesses what mission this one will be for? Seems a little early for Crew-3, but that's the first one that comes to mind! CRS-22 might be a good guess too.

https://twitter.com/bluemoondance74/status/1375665823377805315

[AndrewRG10]

Surprise new F9 first stage going up on the stand - any guesses what mission this one will be for? Seems a little early for Crew-3, but that's the first one that comes to mind! CRS-22 might be a good guess too.

https://twitter.com/bluemoondance74/status/1375665823377805315

It's B1067 and will probably enter service pretty quickly. Not sure what mission though, you're right it's early for Crew-3 but even CRS-22 is a bit too far out to get it in service quickly.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Quite a year unfolding for Dragon teams:

SMSR schedule update as of March 16:

SpaceX CRS-22 on June 3
SpaceX CRS-24 on December 2
SpaceX Crew-4 on April 5, 2022
SpaceX Crew-5 on October 25, 2022

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1379176348619567105

SpaceX has a packed schedule for crew and cargo Dragon missions in the months ahead:

April 22 — Crew-2 launch
April 28 — Crew-1 return
June 3 — CRS-22 launch
Sept. 15 — Inspiration4 launch
Oct. 23 — Crew-3 launch
Oct. 31  — Crew-2 return

[abaddon]

Quite a year unfolding for Dragon teams:

SpaceX has a packed schedule for crew and cargo Dragon missions in the months ahead:

April 22 — Crew-2 launch
April 28 — Crew-1 return
June 3 — CRS-22 launch
Sept. 15 — Inspiration4 launch
Oct. 23 — Crew-3 launch
Oct. 31  — Crew-2 return

Hopefully there's a missing "Inspiration4 return" in there

[Zed_Noir]

Quite a year unfolding for Dragon teams:

SpaceX has a packed schedule for crew and cargo Dragon missions in the months ahead:

April 22 — Crew-2 launch
April 28 — Crew-1 return
June 3 — CRS-22 launch
Sept. 15 — Inspiration4 launch
Oct. 23 — Crew-3 launch
Oct. 31  — Crew-2 return

Hopefully there's a missing "Inspiration4 return" in there

Since Inspiration4 is planning for a 3 day mission. You can probably penciled in Sept. 18 as their return date. 

[MATTBLAK]

No Falcon Heavy launch this year then? Has it been deferred to early 2022?

[gongora]

That was a partial schedule of NASA crew and cargo launches.  It doesn't even have all of those.