The last ten launches have gone at a pace equivalent to over 40 per year.
Quote from: Comga on 01/24/2021 05:46 pmThe last ten launches have gone at a pace equivalent to over 40 per year.The launch cadence will actually increase during February and March due to being primarily Starlink launches and not having that holiday gap. There is much more control and the ability to cut corners. Also the reduced 35 day turnaround thanks to Elon’s initiatives.
A flurry of Starlinks, I like it.That would be a ton of additional on orbit capacity. Bye bye Better than nothing Beta, hello commercial operation.
I’m predicting at least 10-15 Starlink launches in the first half of 2021.The rationale for that is simple. SpaceX can easily launch 4 flights a month with its current rate of booster reprocessing. However, there are only 7-8 external launches booked for 1H 2021. Three Starlink launches a month would fill that gap.There is a huge demand for Starlink, and they will need a lot of capacity to meet that demand, which is reflected in the chart below.Currently, there is a backlog of at least 720 Starlink satellites waiting to be launched.With at least 16 external launches in 2H 2021 planned, the time to launch is sooner rather than later.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 01/26/2021 06:35 pmA flurry of Starlinks, I like it.That would be a ton of additional on orbit capacity. Bye bye Better than nothing Beta, hello commercial operation.Quote from: Jansen on 12/09/2020 11:34 pmI’m predicting at least 10-15 Starlink launches in the first half of 2021.The rationale for that is simple. SpaceX can easily launch 4 flights a month with its current rate of booster reprocessing. However, there are only 7-8 external launches booked for 1H 2021. Three Starlink launches a month would fill that gap.There is a huge demand for Starlink, and they will need a lot of capacity to meet that demand, which is reflected in the chart below.Currently, there is a backlog of at least 720 Starlink satellites waiting to be launched.With at least 16 external launches in 2H 2021 planned, the time to launch is sooner rather than later.Pretty much as I predicted almost two months ago. 1H on the manifest is wide open versus 2H.
There is a possible patter that could emerge over the next month of Feb and Mar. And that is that every ~14 days SpaceX would do Starlink launch followed a couple of days later by another Starlink launch. Thereby utilizing the two fairing catchers in one deployment. A 14 day spacing for a launch from a specific pad plus for a specific ASDS would be about the best possible launch rate achievable.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 01/31/2021 01:32 amThere is a possible patter that could emerge over the next month of Feb and Mar. And that is that every ~14 days SpaceX would do Starlink launch followed a couple of days later by another Starlink launch. Thereby utilizing the two fairing catchers in one deployment. A 14 day spacing for a launch from a specific pad plus for a specific ASDS would be about the best possible launch rate achievable.The best rate launch cadence from SLC-40 without a static fire is theoretically around 7-8 days. There are other ships that can recover fairings out of the water. I don’t see SpaceX waiting an extra week on launches just to catch fairings.If you look at the best case scenario a few posts above, they are already booster constrained in mid February.
It feels like a long time since we have seen a new built booster (out side of the FH ones)Surely one or 2 should be coming out of Hawthorne soon?
Quote from: cpushack on 01/31/2021 07:07 amIt feels like a long time since we have seen a new built booster (out side of the FH ones)Surely one or 2 should be coming out of Hawthorne soon?Pure speculation on my part, but given the projected shortage of boostersprojected in the near term and the next two FH vehicles will use all new cores,I've wondered if 1052 and 1053 aren't due to be refurbished as F9 boosters?18 months sitting idle seems like a long time!Plus SpaceX is quite good at logistics planning yet we've not heard rumoursabout 1052 and 1053 in a long while.Carl
Pure speculation on my part, but given the projected shortage of boostersprojected in the near term and the next two FH vehicles will use all new cores,I've wondered if 1052 and 1053 aren't due to be refurbished as F9 boosters?
Quote from: Galactic Penguin SST on 02/03/2021 02:36 amBTW how do we know the "L17" & "L18" designators are assigned to specific rockets/satellites and not sequential?Those are the mission names they provide to the range. They are on all of the planning documents (weather forecasts, hazard areas).
BTW how do we know the "L17" & "L18" designators are assigned to specific rockets/satellites and not sequential?
Quote from: cwr on 01/31/2021 07:00 pmQuote from: cpushack on 01/31/2021 07:07 amIt feels like a long time since we have seen a new built booster (out side of the FH ones)Surely one or 2 should be coming out of Hawthorne soon?Pure speculation on my part, but given the projected shortage of boostersprojected in the near term and the next two FH vehicles will use all new cores,I've wondered if 1052 and 1053 aren't due to be refurbished as F9 boosters?18 months sitting idle seems like a long time!Plus SpaceX is quite good at logistics planning yet we've not heard rumoursabout 1052 and 1053 in a long while.CarlThat is what I've been thinking for some time. I'm not even sure that there is an alternative.1063.2 is the Vandenberg booster, and it should launch Sarah 1, Sarah 2/3, Dart, and then are plenty of other missions for it at Vandenberg after that.1062.2 is dedicated to GPS III-5 and is not for the use of anything else in between. The earliest it will be available for other missions is August.1061.2 is dedicated to CCtCap Crew-2 and then CRS2 SpX-22 and the earliest it will become available for other missions is July.That leaves five boosters, 1049.8, 1051.9, 1058.6, 1059.6, and 1060.5, for everything else, and they can support, based on the empirical evidence, three missions per month. Except that 1049 and 1051 are almost at the end of their planned life. And then 1058 and 1059 aren't that far behind.So where are the other boosters going to come from? Well it wouldn't surprise me if 1067.1 is going to be put into this pool. And I won't be at all surprised if 1049 and 1051 end up doing more than ten missions. But I can't believe that SpaceX actually planned for that to happen. It's more that it's great if it happens, but they didn't count on it happening.So that leaves 1052.3 and 1053.3 which I suspect have been sidelined because SpaceX has some kind of contract to keep a Falcon Heavy set ready. And I speculate that they will show up in use for other missions, once USSF-44 launches.
