Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 466978 times)

Offline SMS

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #220 on: 01/08/2021 10:16 am »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #221 on: 01/12/2021 08:18 pm »
As much as I hate to do it, I may end up changing the Starlink mission thread titles to something like "Starlink (17) v1.0 L16" again.  It gets confusing because SpaceX still (usually) uses the "17th Starlink Mission" nomenclature with the media for the missions, and there are those upcoming missions with a different name on the FCC permits.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #222 on: 01/12/2021 08:30 pm »
As much as I hate to do it, I may end up changing the Starlink mission thread titles to something like "Starlink (17) v1.0 L16" again.  It gets confusing because SpaceX still (usually) uses the "17th Starlink Mission" nomenclature with the media for the missions, and there are those upcoming missions with a different name on the FCC permits.

Most space launch websites are using the “Starlink v1.0 L16” nomenclature. It’s on Wikipedia and most people understand and pick it up pretty quickly.

I suspect the RF mission names are placeholders like the previous “Mission 1xxx” format, or perhaps it will be “Starlink v1.1 L1”.

We can make a note of the total launch number in the first post. Would probably have to do it eventually anyway.

But for now let’s wait until SpaceX publishes their pre launch blurb for the first RF mission before we have to change thread title nomenclature.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2021 08:37 pm by Jansen »

Offline mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #223 on: 01/12/2021 09:32 pm »
As much as I hate to do it, I may end up changing the Starlink mission thread titles to something like "Starlink (17) v1.0 L16" again.  It gets confusing because SpaceX still (usually) uses the "17th Starlink Mission" nomenclature with the media for the missions, and there are those upcoming missions with a different name on the FCC permits.

I would just call it Starlink 17.  Let SpaceX decide what it wants to call their missions and go with that.  Besides this v1.0 L16 naming scheme is going to lead to more confusion down the road.

What happens when we get to v1.1?  Are we going to start counting from 1 again?  Given "v1.0 L16" that would certainly make sense.  But that also positively invites confusion.

Suppose the first version 1.1 batch is at Starlink 25.  The current naming scheme would mean going from v1.0 L24 to v1.1 L1.  And that would be logical if NasaSpaceFlight.com continues the convention that it has established.

But it would be less confusing and more straightforward to go from Starlink 24 to Starlink 25, which is almost certainly what SpaceX will do.  And then it will be merely a footnote that Starlink 25 was the first v1.1 batch, which is appropriate.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #224 on: 01/12/2021 09:53 pm »
As much as I hate to do it, I may end up changing the Starlink mission thread titles to something like "Starlink (17) v1.0 L16" again.  It gets confusing because SpaceX still (usually) uses the "17th Starlink Mission" nomenclature with the media for the missions, and there are those upcoming missions with a different name on the FCC permits.

I would just call it Starlink 17.  Let SpaceX decide what it wants to call their missions and go with that.  Besides this v1.0 L16 naming scheme is going to lead to more confusion down the road.

What happens when we get to v1.1?  Are we going to start counting from 1 again?  Given "v1.0 L16" that would certainly make sense.  But that also positively invites confusion.

Suppose the first version 1.1 batch is at Starlink 25.  The current naming scheme would mean going from v1.0 L24 to v1.1 L1.  And that would be logical if NasaSpaceFlight.com continues the convention that it has established.

But it would be less confusing and more straightforward to go from Starlink 24 to Starlink 25, which is almost certainly what SpaceX will do.  And then it will be merely a footnote that Starlink 25 was the first v1.1 batch, which is appropriate.

Here here, I favor just calling it Starlink X and not worrying about the V1.x
We could be headed into a period of Starlink rideshare, V1.0, whatever the RF ones are, polar etc.  It's going to get wild.
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

Offline niwax

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #225 on: 01/12/2021 10:30 pm »
As much as I hate to do it, I may end up changing the Starlink mission thread titles to something like "Starlink (17) v1.0 L16" again.  It gets confusing because SpaceX still (usually) uses the "17th Starlink Mission" nomenclature with the media for the missions, and there are those upcoming missions with a different name on the FCC permits.

If they keep swapping numbers and versions around, why not use the SpaceX name and then add something like (v1 1260-1320)? Number of launches since v0.9 isn't that helpful when they start putting small numbers of Starlinks on all kinds of missions.
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #226 on: 01/13/2021 12:26 am »
A lot of the people asking for a change are simply saying the same thing: it’ll simplify things.

I would argue that the people who come to the forums are looking for more information, not less.  There is a reason virtually all sites that cater to space enthusiasts use this current format.

We use mission names instead of generic launch numbers for the same reason.

Spaceflight Now, NextSpaceFlight, Reddit, Wikipedia, etc. all use the current format. Unilaterally changing it actually adds to confusion because you’d be using a different format than everyone else.

When you’re looking at a list of dozens of launches, having differentiation is important. And do we really want to go back and start changing thread titles?
« Last Edit: 01/13/2021 12:27 am by Jansen »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #227 on: 01/13/2021 12:45 am »
Spaceflight Now, NextSpaceFlight, Reddit, Wikipedia, etc. all use the current format. Unilaterally changing it actually adds to confusion because you’d be using a different format than everyone else.

We were one of the first sites to use the current format and drop the other numbering.  I'm not going to drop the detailed mission names. 

SpaceX uses different numbering (starting with the v0.9 flight) with the media and that's what you'll see in many news stories and social media posts.  Even our own media team ends up using those numbers when planning mission coverage because that's what they are called on the media attendance forms.  Long term it's probably less confusing to add SpaceX's media numbering in addition to the detailed mission name.

Part of the reason I had such antipathy towards the "17th Starlink Mission" numbering early on is that SpaceX hadn't publicly admitted the v0.9 satellites weren't part of the constellation, even though it was obvious they wouldn't be.  (It was also obvious that many SpaceXers were using the v1.0 numbers internally when they mentioned a flight number.)  Now that those test satellites are mostly gone and the numbers are getting bigger I'm a little more ambivalent about it. 
« Last Edit: 01/13/2021 12:47 am by gongora »

Offline mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #228 on: 01/13/2021 01:09 am »
A lot of the people asking for a change are simply saying the same thing: it’ll simplify things.

I would argue that the people who come to the forums are looking for more information, not less.  There is a reason virtually all sites that cater to space enthusiasts use this current format.

We use mission names instead of generic launch numbers for the same reason.

Spaceflight Now, NextSpaceFlight, Reddit, Wikipedia, etc. all use the current format. Unilaterally changing it actually adds to confusion because you’d be using a different format than everyone else.

When you’re looking at a list of dozens of launches, having differentiation is important. And do we really want to go back and start changing thread titles?

I doubt it was Spaceflight Now that made this decision.  I doubt it was NextSpaceFlight that made this decision.  It certainly wasn't Wikipedia that made this decision, since the relevant Wikipedia entries are just a reflection of this community.

Very likely it was either at here or at Reddit that the decision was made to name things like this, and then that decision was copied elsewhere.  But regardless of the logic for naming a mission "Starlink v1.0 16", SpaceX doesn't describe it as such, and that is a constant source of confusion, and if we keep to this scheme, it's going to get even more confusing in the future, once new versions of Starlink come along, and it escapes me what the benefit is of doing things this way.

I'm not arguing for going back and rewriting all the past references up to now, but for simply giving into how SpaceX wishes to name things and using that, mostly, from now on.

For instance the next mission might be described as "Starlink 17 (v1.0 16)."   This should make it clear to everyone what is being described.  And if at some point later, say "Starlink 24 (v1.0 23)," the name is reduced to simply "Starlink 24" then hopefully everyone will have adjusted and know what is meant.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #229 on: 01/13/2021 01:21 am »
... simply giving into how SpaceX wishes to name things and using that, mostly, from now on.

The problem is we don’t know how SpaceX will name things going forward and whether it will be based on marketing versus facts.

There is a theory that they will start counting every launch that contains a Starlink satellite as a launch. Which sounds great from a marketing perspective, but illogical when you’re counting launches.

Call me conservative, but let’s wait and see how things play out over the next couple of weeks. We should be seeing the first Starlink launch after Transporter-1 at the end of January, and the first of the RF missions the first week of February. Let’s make changes after this period of uncertainty, rather than before.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #230 on: 01/13/2021 01:49 pm »
On a Falcon 9? Kudos to Bezos on donating money to a good cause and not attaching strings to it that just benefit himself. This is good to see!
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Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #231 on: 01/13/2021 04:51 pm »
On a Falcon 9? Kudos to Bezos on donating money to a good cause and not attaching strings to it that just benefit himself. This is good to see!
Could you maybe clarify the reference there?
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #232 on: 01/13/2021 05:01 pm »
On a Falcon 9? Kudos to Bezos on donating money to a good cause and not attaching strings to it that just benefit himself. This is good to see!
Could you maybe clarify the reference there?
nothing at all in particular. im just saying that  it's good that bezos allowed them enough of a free hand to use the rocket of his competitor. sometimes donations by the very rich have strings attached so the donation ends up just helping the donor's financial  interests. or at least  that's the fear .

edit: looks like the post i was replying to was moved/deleted. reference to a methane observing satellite funded by bezos' climate charity
« Last Edit: 01/13/2021 05:03 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #233 on: 01/14/2021 01:47 am »
On a Falcon 9? Kudos to Bezos on donating money to a good cause and not attaching strings to it that just benefit himself. This is good to see!
Could you maybe clarify the reference there?
nothing at all in particular. im just saying that  it's good that bezos allowed them enough of a free hand to use the rocket of his competitor. sometimes donations by the very rich have strings attached so the donation ends up just helping the donor's financial  interests. or at least  that's the fear .

edit: looks like the post i was replying to was moved/deleted. reference to a methane observing satellite funded by bezos' climate charity
Thanks.

I think this might be the story?  https://cosmiclog.com/2021/01/13/rival-billionaires-both-play-roles-in-methanesat/

There are probably other sources...
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #234 on: 01/14/2021 02:15 am »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1349361110135222272

Quote
The Environmental Defense Fund says its Earth observing MethaneSat will launch on a Falcon 9 rocket in October, 2022. The satellite and its launch will largely be paid for by a $100 million grant from the Bezos Earth Fund.

Robotbeat posted a response in the Manifest Updates thread, so a moderator moved it out.

There is now a discussion thread for MethaneSat.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52787.0
« Last Edit: 01/14/2021 02:16 am by Jansen »

Offline PM3

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #235 on: 01/16/2021 10:39 am »
Gwynne Shotwell said two weeks ago:

Quote
We have signed deals where we can pick whether it's a Falcon or a Starship
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/gwynne-shotwell-talks-about-selling-flight-proven-rockets-starship/

This means that for 2022+ SpaceX launch contracts that do not reportedly include a Falcon rocket, it cannot be assumed that they will be fulfilled with a Falcon.

Is there any more information about launch contracts that include this Starship option for SpaceX? Did any customer come out with that?
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline SMS

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #236 on: 01/20/2021 02:43 pm »
---
SMS ;-).

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #237 on: 01/24/2021 02:05 am »
Korea made an ITU filing for KPLO on January 12.  It doesn't really have any useful information unless you're really into antenna plots, but good to see that project is still going.

Offline SMS

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #238 on: 01/24/2021 05:16 pm »
---
SMS ;-).

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #239 on: 01/24/2021 05:46 pm »
Updated graph after today's SXM-7 launch
A new record: 26 launches within the last 12 months (366 days)
If CRS-2 Flight 21 has not been delayed by a day SpaceX would have hit this mark last week.
The last ten launches have gone at a pace equivalent to almost 35 per year.
Food for thought for the upcoming annual prediction poll for the number of orbital launches in 2021.
(If anyone has a better place for these posts, please suggest it, probably by PM rather than clogging the thread.)

Updated graph after today's Transporter launch
Another new record: 27 launches within the last 12 months
The last ten launches have gone at a pace equivalent to over 40 per year.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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