SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[gongora]

I don't think 1060 is targeted for GPS use.  I wouldn't be surprised if 1062 launches the next two GPS sats.

[Jansen]

Sorry, it was Space News, not SFN:

The Falcon 9 rockets that launched two military GPS satellites June 30 and Nov. 5 both had brand-new boosters which the company recovered after launch. After renegotiating its contract with the Space Force, SpaceX will use the recovered boosters from the June and November launches to fly two more GPS satellites in 2021.

That doesn’t say anything about B1060 being reserved exclusively for GPS use.

On the other hand, we have a SpaceX representative saying on camera that B1062 will fly next launching GPS III SV05. If you don’t believe that, then nothing I can find will convince you.

[scr00chy]

Sorry, it was Space News, not SFN:

The Falcon 9 rockets that launched two military GPS satellites June 30 and Nov. 5 both had brand-new boosters which the company recovered after launch. After renegotiating its contract with the Space Force, SpaceX will use the recovered boosters from the June and November launches to fly two more GPS satellites in 2021.

That doesn’t say anything about B1060 being reserved exclusively for GPS use.

That's my point. It says both boosters will launch GPS sats in the future but since B1060 is about to launch Turksat 5A, it's clearly not reserved. So I'm thinking the same might be true for B1062.

I'm not trying to argue with you or trying to convince you I'm right. I'm just explaining what I'm basing my speculation on, just like you're doing with regards to B1063 moving to Florida, for example. I'm not saying I'm definitely right, so relax please.

[Jansen]

No hard feelings, I just think that you have misunderstood the article.

It’s not saying that they are reserved at all, just that they will be used again later for GPS flights. And it doesn’t make sense that B1060 would be reserved, because USSF only started talking about reusing boosters in September, 3 months after the GPS III SV03 launch.

On the other hand, B1062 is being used for reuse validation for the entire NSSL2 contract. That’s worth it for SpaceX to reserve it exclusively for USSF usage, not to mention that they have paid for that exclusivity.

Same thing with NASA and B1061. Paid for reserved use. There’s an article that talks about how closely NASA is involved with every aspect of that booster.

[vaporcobra]

B1063 is unequivocally assigned to DART. There's a distant chance SpaceX will fly it again for SARah-1 in Q1 or early Q2 but that mission has been MIA for like 15 months and DART will be NASA LSP's first flight-proven launch, so it shouldn't come as a surprise if B1063 spends 6+ months between flights 1 and 2.

[Jansen]

B1063 is unequivocally assigned to DART. There's a distant chance SpaceX will fly it again for SARah-1 in Q1 or early Q2 but that mission has been MIA for like 15 months and DART will be NASA LSP's first flight-proven launch, so it shouldn't come as a surprise if B1063 spends 6+ months between flights 1 and 2.

Tentatively, not unequivocally, according to SFN.

SpaceX tentatively plans to reuse first stage that flew with the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich mission Saturday on the company’s next launch of a NASA spacecraft from Vandenberg next July, NASA launch director Tim Dunn said in a recent interview with Spaceflight Now

Now look at what Cathy Lueders said about B1061 vs B1063:

“We have a backup in case something happens to this particular stage, but we’ve done all our inspections on this stage,” Lueders said. “We’ve done all the work. We understand the hardware. So we would really like to use this because it makes the job for Crew-2 easier.

“One of the things we’re looking at is using the Sentinel-6 booster because it is a booster we’ve looked at, too,” Lueders said. “It will have had a flight on it. But … there are a couple of other ones out there. The nice thing with SpaceX is there is a range of hardware out there that we can use.

”

From both of those statements, it doesn’t seem like there’s much exclusivity on B1063 or that it has had the same level of inspections as B1061.

Also consider that SpaceX has been very forthcoming in mentioning the exclusivity on B1061 and B1062, but no mention at all for B1063. That doesn’t fit the pattern.

[vaporcobra]

After recovery and with preliminary inspections and performance data reviews already complete, what I'm saying is that I'm hearing B1061 and B1063 are much more firmly (if not 100%) assigned to Crew-2 and DART, respectively.

[Jansen]

After recovery and with preliminary inspections and performance data reviews already complete, what I'm saying is that I'm hearing B1061 and B1063 are much more firmly (if not 100%) assigned to Crew-2 and DART, respectively.

I concur that they have been assigned to Crew-2 and DART. That has been corroborated by other articles.

However, there is no indication of B1063’s exclusivity when taken in context, compared to B1061’s exclusivity as stated by NASA and SpaceX.

Take the example of B1058. Scheduled for CRS-21 for months, even has the NASA worm on it. Flew two missions in between NASA launches anyway.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1340725113277300741

Every single SpaceX's launch at one render. Since 2006 till 2020. Launch with its mission name, date, rocket visualization (detailed) & booster number.

#Falcon9 #Space

[spacenut]

I looked up on US launches posted by Salo a few hours ago.  SpaceX has 39 scheduled for 2021.  Two of which are orbital Starships.  There were 2 or 3 Falcon Heavies, don't remember exactly right now.  This is more than all others combined.  Most of which are Starlink launches. 

How many used boosters are still in use?  How many new boosters will they make?  I know they have to make new FH cores if they can't manage to save them. 

[Jansen]

I looked up on US launches posted by Salo a few hours ago.  SpaceX has 39 scheduled for 2021.  Two of which are orbital Starships.  There were 2 or 3 Falcon Heavies, don't remember exactly right now.  This is more than all others combined.  Most of which are Starlink launches. 

How many used boosters are still in use?  How many new boosters will they make?  I know they have to make new FH cores if they can't manage to save them.

SpaceX is targeting 48 launches for 2021. The priority is NSSL and NASA launches, followed by commercial launches. Starlink will launch in any available gaps.

B1049 - Reprocessing (mid Jan)
B1051 - ASDS unloading (late-Jan)
B1058 - Reprocessing (late-Jan)
B1059 - LZ-1 (early Feb)
B1060 - Turksat 5A
B1063 - Reprocessing (mid-Jan)

B1061 - Reserved Crew-2
B1062 - Reserved GPS III SV05

B1064 FH
B1065 FH
B1066 FH

The plan was for 10 new Falcon 9 first stages in 2020. There is a need for at least 6 new boosters due to FH requirements for 2021, 3 of which are probably already built (64-66).

[wannamoonbase]

Jansen, great summary. 

Still think they need more first stages in circulation, and a 3rd ASDS

[Jakusb]

I looked up on US launches posted by Salo a few hours ago.  SpaceX has 39 scheduled for 2021.  Two of which are orbital Starships.  There were 2 or 3 Falcon Heavies, don't remember exactly right now.  This is more than all others combined.  Most of which are Starlink launches. 

How many used boosters are still in use?  How many new boosters will they make?  I know they have to make new FH cores if they can't manage to save them.

SpaceX is targeting 48 launches for 2021. The priority is NSSL and NASA launches, followed by commercial launches. Starlink will launch in any available gaps.

B1049 - Reprocessing (mid Jan)
B1051 - ASDS unloading (late-Jan)
B1058 - Reprocessing (late-Jan)
B1059 - LZ-1 (early Feb)
B1060 - Turksat 5A
B1063 - Reprocessing (mid-Jan)

B1061 - Reserved Crew-2
B1062 - Reserved GPS III SV05

B1064 FH
B1065 FH
B1066 FH

The plan was for 10 new Falcon 9 first stages in 2020. There is a need for at least 6 new boosters due to FH requirements for 2021, 3 of which are probably already built (64-66).

Where do you get the target to build 10 in 2020?
They have build 1060-1066, with 1066 unseen. That is 7, so either they already also build 1067-1069 (FH too?), or they fell short of their target.
Somehow the test flow in McGregor seems halted for S1’s as none have been seen vertical there since the arrival of presumably 1065.
And no other has been reported being transported. Interesting.

[smoliarm]

SpaceX is targeting 48 launches for 2021.

Yes, I heard this too. However I doubt they can get close to such target.
Below I attached graph showing SpaceX cadence during 2020 in the form "Date vs # days between launches".
Assuming SpaceX was REALLY busy with Dragon Crew DM2 in the first months of 2020, therefore they had slow launch cadence in this period.
So I calculated the average tempo for the rest of the year - from June to Dec. It gives 11.3 days between launches on average, which translates in (365/11.3) = 32.3 launches per year.
This is what one should expect IF SpaceX will keep the pace.
As we see from this year scheduling history, the launch tempo depends on (1) number of cores in rotation and on (2) refurbishing time.
As far as we can see, the refurbishing time remained the same during 2020
The number of cores did not go up significantly, as two new cores turned as GPS/Crew-assigned.
Actually one could expect number of cores will go down when B1049 and B1051 reach 10 flights. At that point SpaceX may want to take the core out of rotation for overhaul.

Bottom line - I don't see a way to boost the flight rate 50% up.
And to be honest - the flight rate of one launch evry 11 days - that's already awesome !!

[rockets4life97]

I think there will be 8 or so flights out of Vandenberg next year (mostly Starlink) and that will be a key part of how SpaceX achieves a higher cadence than this fall.

[clongton]

And don't forget Boca Chica. That 48 number includes Starship and Super Heavy launches.

[butters]

The 3 scheduled Falcon Heavy missions for 2021 have been eating up booster production capacity in the last quarter of 2020 and may eat up significant launch operations capacity in 2021. Starlink will have LC-40 mostly to itself for the first half of the year for lack of customer payloads for mid/low-inclination F9 launches, but LC-39A is going to be tied up for chunks of the year, and those FH missions will require both droneships, which will block Starlink missions from the other pad. FH is a bit of a cadence-killer for the Cape operations.

Fortunately, behind those three FH boosters on the production line, there should be badly-needed F9 boosters to replenish the fleet, hopefully by springtime. They need to replace the two life-leader boosters that are approaching well-deserved retirements, and they need to replace the two boosters which were unexpectedly lost in 2020.

[wannamoonbase]

The 3 scheduled Falcon Heavy missions for 2021 have been eating up booster production capacity in the last quarter of 2020 and may eat up significant launch operations capacity in 2021. Starlink will have LC-40 mostly to itself for the first half of the year for lack of customer payloads for mid/low-inclination F9 launches, but LC-39A is going to be tied up for chunks of the year, and those FH missions will require both droneships, which will block Starlink missions from the other pad. FH is a bit of a cadence-killer for the Cape operations.

Fortunately, behind those three FH boosters on the production line, there should be badly-needed F9 boosters to replenish the fleet, hopefully by springtime. They need to replace the two life-leader boosters that are approaching well-deserved retirements, and they need to replace the two boosters which were unexpectedly lost in 2020.

Don't forget that 2020 had multiple COVID problems and 2 lost cores early in the year.  without that maybe they could have made 30 flights this year.

I think they can make a 48 flight rate next year, but it will require increased use of VAFB (or is it VSFB now) and taking every possible window including the better Florida weather before summer.

If SS/SH make a single orbital flight in 2021 that would be massive, delivery any payload would be a cherry on top.

Maybe we need a 2021 poll, LOL!

[DistantTemple]

SpaceX is targeting 48 launches for 2021.

Yes, I heard this too. However I doubt they can get close to such target.
Below I attached graph showing SpaceX cadence during 2020 in the form "Date vs # days between launches".
Assuming SpaceX was REALLY busy with Dragon Crew DM2 in the first months of 2020, therefore they had slow launch cadence in this period.
So I calculated the average tempo for the rest of the year - from June to Dec. It gives 11.3 days between launches on average, which translates in (365/11.3) = 32.3 launches per year.
This is what one should expect IF SpaceX will keep the pace.
As we see from this year scheduling history, the launch tempo depends on (1) number of cores in rotation and on (2) refurbishing time.
As far as we can see, the refurbishing time remained the same during 2020
The number of cores did not go up significantly, as two new cores turned as GPS/Crew-assigned.
Actually one could expect number of cores will go down when B1049 and B1051 reach 10 flights. At that point SpaceX may want to take the core out of rotation for overhaul.

Bottom line - I don't see a way to boost the flight rate 50% up.
And to be honest - the flight rate of one launch evry 11 days - that's already awesome !!

From your graph Oct Nov Dec, ballpark average is about 8 days between launches. 365/8 =~ 45 Launches per year. I've read the rest of the posts about FH and FH dedicated manufacturing... And taking the flight leaders out of service for refurb.... But even if true, that effects the early part of the year. No one argues that several more new cores could be manufactured by mid year. Also, we don't know that a serious overhaul will take months! This is an EM company!
His recent attention to recovery turn around, and advertising for new managers, sounds like he considers recovery a bottle neck. One conclusion from that, is that he expects a faster launch cadence, and for recovery to be able to cope by improving their procedure's. Why consider the whole of 2020, or even the second half... the third 4th quarter better shows SX capabilities now, with an intention to improve.
Many many launches will be Starlink. SX probably has a strategy for continuing to use flight leaders for Starlink beyond 10 flights. Its crucial for them to race ahead with SL. And as for pads... it was once said SX were aiming for 24hr turn around. Although weather and holds are a major problem, we should still see faster cadence.
Edit 4th Quarter!

[mandrewa]

A Shortfall of Gravitas may show up in 2021.  If it is moved to the west coast then that will increase the number of Starlink satellites launched per polar launch.