Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 466984 times)

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #140 on: 12/01/2020 07:07 pm »
Apparently the problem with NROL-108 will take longer to resolve than expected.

As a result B1051.7 will launch SXM-7 instead of a Starlink mission as there is now a sufficient gap. The next flight after that will tentatively be NROL-108 on B1059.5 if the issues are resolved, then Turksat 5A on B1060.4 in late December/early January.

NRO payload issues can days or years long. 

It makes sense to move on with the busy manifest, fly the booster and start the next processing cycle as soon as possible.

Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #141 on: 12/01/2020 07:21 pm »
You state a lot of assumptions like they're facts.

Should be confirmation soon from the usual sources.

Your assumptions aren't just dates.  You're assuming relationships between missions that don't exist.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #142 on: 12/01/2020 07:41 pm »
Apparently the problem with NROL-108 will take longer to resolve than expected.

As a result B1051.7 will launch SXM-7 instead of a Starlink mission as there is now a sufficient gap. The next flight after that will tentatively be NROL-108 on B1059.5 if the issues are resolved, then Turksat 5A on B1060.4 in late December/early January.

NRO payload issues can days or years long. 

It makes sense to move on with the busy manifest, fly the booster and start the next processing cycle as soon as possible.

My sources won’t give me any specific information about NRO missions. Everything is very general or  tentative.

The schedule revolves around them, so it really depends on when they say they will be ready.

It’s actually not so bad for SX as they have Starlink opportunities. It’s a lot less flexible for commercial launches as corners can’t be cut.

I’m not going to risk anyone’s job, so the info I  post can usually be inferred based on publicly available info.
« Last Edit: 12/01/2020 07:47 pm by Jansen »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #143 on: 12/03/2020 04:43 am »
However, 1060.4 may be assigned to another payload that isn't stuck on the other side of an ocean (for the time being/until alternate transportation is arranged for Turksat 5A).

This could be a "if life gives you lemons, make lemonade" opportunity for SpaceX to launch another gaggle of Starlinks from Canaveral/KSC before the end of December, on B1060.4.
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Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #144 on: 12/03/2020 05:01 am »
However, 1060.4 may be assigned to another payload that isn't stuck on the other side of an ocean (for the time being/until alternate transportation is arranged for Turksat 5A).

This could be a "if life gives you lemons, make lemonade" opportunity for SpaceX to launch another gaggle of Starlinks from Canaveral/KSC before the end of December, on B1060.4.

That’s one possibility, or it could be used for Transporter-1, based on the recently moved  launch date of January 14.

The alternatives for that would be B1063 with a 53 day turnaround and B1049 with 50 days.
« Last Edit: 12/03/2020 05:01 am by Jansen »

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #145 on: 12/04/2020 10:49 pm »
In the CRS-21 briefing Kenny Todd mentioned nine Cargo Dragon 2 flights on contract.  I don't recall any official announcement of flights past the first six, but more were expected to be added.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #146 on: 12/04/2020 11:01 pm »
In the CRS-21 briefing Kenny Todd mentioned nine Cargo Dragon 2 flights on contract.  I don't recall any official announcement of flights past the first six, but more were expected to be added.

Yes, same with Soyuz, Progress, Cygnus, HTV-X, Crew Dragon, Starliner, and Dream Chaser. The contracts were signed to allow the order of more missions as the life of the station is currently funded until 2024, is waiting be extended to 2028, and possibly beyond.
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #147 on: 12/05/2020 12:08 am »
Contract mods show Authority to Proceed for the Crew-4 mission, which should be early or mid 2022 depending on what Boeing does next year.

Offline scr00chy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #148 on: 12/06/2020 05:45 pm »
Cross-post

https://www.anchoragepress.com/news/new-telecom-satellite-for-alaska-on-schedule-for-launch-next-summer-will-provide-broadband-high/article_3c355424-0dad-11eb-8f93-0feaade192f0.html
Quote
A new communications satellite dedicated to Alaska is set for its launch next summer. It will provide affordable broadband service across the state, said Chuck Schumann, CEO of Alaska-based Pacific DataPort Inc.

It will also provide improved satellite access. Existing satellites that provide service to Alaska are in more southern latitudes so that they serve most of the state including Anchorage from very low angles.

That means the Chugach Mountains and trees around homes frequently block access.

The Aurora 4A satellite, the first of two planned by Pacific DataPort, will roar into space atop a SpaceEx Falcon Heavy rocket from the SpaceEx commercial launch facility at Cape Canaveral in Florida.

Schumann said the satellite will be placed into orbit by “direct entry,” a space industry term for a direct launch to geosynchronous orbit 22,000 miles above the earth. The usual procedure, he said, is to lift a geosynchronous satellite to its high orbit in several stages, a procedure that can take up to four months.

...

The Aurora 4A satellite will also be one of the first compact high-capacity satellites to be put in geosynchronous orbit typically at an altitude of 22,000 miles above the earth. Once in position, the Aurora 4A and Aurora IV, the second satellite that will follow the first, will be able to reach all parts of the state including areas off Alaska’s Arctic coast to a distance of several hundred miles offshore.

...

Two satellites are being launched so that there is a backup in case one malfunctions. Aurora 4-A is smaller and is being launched first so the Pacific DataPort can establish contracts with customers and secure revenue while the launch of the larger Aurora IV is being planned.

The first satellite, Aurora 4A, will have a capacity of 7.5 gigabytes per second, while the second satellite, Aurora IV, will have a capacity of 70 gigabytes per second. This is the speed at which data can be processed.

The current schedule calls for Aurora IV, which with more advanced service, to be put in orbit in about three years, but the second satellite requires more investment than the first and financing, from private sources, is still being raised.

Aurora IV could be launched sooner if public investment could be obtained to supplement private funds. The money could come from federal COVID-19 impact funds if Congress passes a new COVID-19 economic stimulus plan, or other state of federal sources. An argument can be made for a degree of public funding because the Aurora satellites will improve broadband access, and at lower costs, for rural health facilities as well as on-line learning in schools.

This seems strange to me. I'm guessing there is a mistake in the article?

Previous announcement about this satellite said it would launch on a shared Falcon 9 in late 2020. Now this article says it's actually launching on an FH to GEO in the summer of 2021. Is there some FH launch we don't know about, or is the sat hitching a ride on USSF-44 which is the only FH GEO launch around that timeframe? Neither of those seem likely to me...

So let's say the FH part is a mistake (it mentions Canaveral, not KSC, after all). Does that mean it's launching on a dedicated F9 directly to GEO now? That's never been done before, but at 300 kg, I guess it's possible?

Or is the entire article wrong and the sat is launching on F9 to GTO with some normal communications satellite, as was assumed previously based on the original announcements?

Offline PM3

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #149 on: 12/06/2020 06:04 pm »
This seems strange to me. I'm guessing there is a mistake in the article?

Previous announcement about this satellite said it would launch on a shared Falcon 9 in late 2020. Now this article says it's actually launching on an FH to GEO in the summer of 2021. Is there some FH launch we don't know about, or is the sat hitching a ride on USSF-44 which is the only FH GEO launch around that timeframe? Neither of those seem likely to me...

Could launch with Viasat-3, which goes to GEO on FH.
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Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #150 on: 12/06/2020 06:09 pm »
If the first Viasat 3 is going up with SpaceX (they still haven't announced their launch order)

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #151 on: 12/06/2020 06:10 pm »
The first Viasat won’t be ready until Q4 2021. That was announced recently.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #152 on: 12/07/2020 10:14 am »

Confirmed:

Dec 10  SLC-40
B1051.7 - SXM7

Dec 17  LC-39A
B1059.5 - NROL-108

Unconfirmed:

Dec 30  LC-39A or SLC-40
B1060.4 - Turksat 5A

Jan 14  LC-39A or SLC-40
B1063.2 or B1049.8 - Transporter 1

NET Jan 14 - Starlink v1.0 L16

Rationale:

There are currently only six regular F9 boosters available.

B1049 - Reprocessing (mid Jan)
B1051 - SXM-7 SLC-40
B1058 - At sea ASDS (late-Jan)
B1059 - NROL-108 LC-39A
B1060 - Reprocessing (mid-Dec)
B1063 - Reprocessing (mid-Jan)

B1061 - Reserved Crew-2
B1062 - Reserved GPS III SV05


Turksat 5A is currently scheduled for 30th December according to Turkish news sources. B1060.4 is the only booster available at that time.

B1049.8 or B1063.2 are the only boosters available for the Jan 14 launch of Transporter 1.

It is likely that B1049.8 will be used for Starlink v1.0 L16, leaving B1063.2 for Transporter-1.

The next available booster after that would be B1058 in late January.

Offline Mangala

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #153 on: 12/08/2020 07:48 pm »
Yep, SpaceX would be glad to have available 2 or 3 more boosters to meet its launch needs.

I think the unexpected lost of B-1048 and B-1056 in the beginning of this year, not to speak about B-1050 just two years ago, left them in an uncomfortable situation to meet all their launch needs, specially for Starlink launches.

It is why I'm still surprised they didn't use B-1052 and B-1053 to compensate these lost. Maybe these two Falcon Heavy side boosters were made so lighter that they can't support a second stage without massive modifications that they are not worth to do.

Offline Mangala

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #154 on: 12/08/2020 07:51 pm »
In the other hand, if they could bring down the time between two launches from some 50, 60 days to some 35 days, it will make the actual fleet enough.

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #155 on: 12/08/2020 09:18 pm »
In the other hand, if they could bring down the time between two launches from some 50, 60 days to some 35 days, it will make the actual fleet enough.

Those 2 FH side boosters would really help out.

Shortening the reuse cycle helps for sure.  But at some point with the reserved cores and aging cores they could use more cores to meet the desired Starlink flight rate.

They need to improve several things to get to 40-50 flights per year.  ASDS and weather alone creates enough issues to make that flight rate.
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #156 on: 12/09/2020 11:34 pm »
I’m predicting at least 10-15 Starlink launches in the first half of 2021.

The rationale for that is simple. SpaceX can easily launch 4 flights a month with its current rate of booster reprocessing. However, there are only 7-8 external launches booked for 1H 2021. Three Starlink launches a month would fill that gap.

There is a huge demand for Starlink, and they will need a lot of capacity to meet that demand, which is reflected in the chart below.

Currently, there is a backlog of at least 720 Starlink satellites waiting to be launched.

With at least 16 external launches in 2H 2021 planned, the time to launch is sooner rather than later.
« Last Edit: 12/09/2020 11:54 pm by Jansen »

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #157 on: 12/10/2020 11:17 am »
Well, I hear a bit different story on Starlink deployment -
saying they will need some pause in Starlink launches - soon after beta-testing starts.
The pause would be on months scale.
Although, I can't be sure it's an info from insider, it well can be just another speculation.
Anyway, here are the reasons for a pause -
* evaluation of satellites, user terminals & gateway performance,
* collecting feedback from beta,
* implementing possible upgrades to satellites/terminals.

So, if we put some trust in this source, then the number of Starlink launches in H1 2021 would be 3 to 4.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #158 on: 12/10/2020 04:29 pm »
Starlink deployment strategy for 2021, AND satellite construction:
Moved to the Starlink general discussion thread.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #159 on: 12/13/2020 06:36 pm »
Updated graph after today's SXM-7 launch
A new record: 26 launches within the last 12 months (366 days)
If CRS-2 Flight 21 has not been delayed by a day SpaceX would have hit this mark last week.
The last ten launches have gone at a pace equivalent to almost 35 per year.
Food for thought for the upcoming annual prediction poll for the number of orbital launches in 2021.
(If anyone has a better place for these posts, please suggest it, probably by PM rather than clogging the thread.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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