SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[Orbiter]

Wondering if it's safe to say B1058 has been retired at this point?

[GewoonLukas_]

Wondering if it's safe to say B1058 has been retired at this point?

Last official news was that both B1058 and B1060 have reached their certification limit (15 flights), and that SpaceX was looking into whether they want to increase that certification to 20 flights.

[crandles57]

with 9 May date for 5-9, and expectation of 6-3 before Badr, schedule is looking more like:

~ approx NET date, and ? = extra uncertainty

Scheduled to launch in May:
May 4 _ CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG      Starlink 5-6
May 8 _ Vand SLC-4E     OCISLY    Starlink 2-9
May 9 _ CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS      Starlink 5-9
May~15 CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI       Starlink 6-3
May~18 Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4        Iridium Flight 9/OneWeb Flight 19
May~19? KSC LC-39A       ASDS      Axiom-2?
May 22 _ CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS      Badr-8
May~28? Vand SLC-4E     OCISLY   Starlink 2-10
May~29? CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 6-4?(OSD 18Apr) or 5-11?(OSD 3 May) or ?

(Possible 10 launches in May counting ViaSat-3 on 1 May UTC. But not sure there is enough time to change 39A from FH to crew dragon then to cargo dragon 1 May, 19 May, & 3 June and slippages are always possible.)

Scheduled to launch in June:
Jun 3 KSC LC-39A       ASDS   SpX-28
Jun 10 Vand SLC-4E      LZ-4?  Transporter-8

[Alexphysics]

I haven't received confirmation but I'm already doubting we'll see Axiom-2 this month. I remember being told if Viasat delayed for more than a week after April 18 then Axiom-2 would likely have to jump to September after the current slot for Polaris Dawn.

As things stand my total guess based on the stuff I've heard is...

Starlink 5-6 // May 4th SLC-40
Starlink 2-9 // May 8th SLC-4E
Starlink 5-9 // May 9th SLC-40
Starlink 6-3 // May 15th SLC-40
Iridium-9/OneWeb-19 // May 17th SLC-4E
Arabsat 7B // May 22nd SLC-40
Starlink 2-10 // May 25th SLC-4E
Starlink 6-4 // May 28th SLC-40
Starlink 5-7 // Early June SLC-4E

[striver]

after the current slot for Polaris Dawn.

PD isn't going to ISS.

[Alexphysics]

after the current slot for Polaris Dawn.

PD isn't going to ISS.

It's launching from 39A which is the slot I'm referring to

[striver]

after the current slot for Polaris Dawn.

PD isn't going to ISS.

It's launching from 39A which is the slot I'm referring to

It is much easier to find a launch opportunity in the LC schedule rather than on the ISS. They might have a window after Boeing Crewed Flight Test or after Crew-6 returns home. PD can easily fly after. They don't have such tight ISS schedule.

[Alexphysics]

after the current slot for Polaris Dawn.

PD isn't going to ISS.

It's launching from 39A which is the slot I'm referring to

It is much easier to find a launch opportunity in the LC schedule rather than on the ISS. They might have a window after Boeing Crewed Flight Test or after Crew-6 returns home. PD can easily fly after. They don't have such tight ISS schedule.

Based on the LC-39A schedule and the stuff I've heard, I would disagree with it being easy to find a slot on the schedule. Perhaps going into the winter it'll be easier but for the time being, LC-39A's schedule is very very tight. 

[gertkok]

Didn't both the "Spacex Transporter7" and "O3B mPOWER 3-4" boosters land successfully on the drone ships?

[wannamoonbase]

Didn't both the "Spacex Transporter7" and "O3B mPOWER 3-4" boosters land successfully on the drone ships?

Transporter 7 landed at LZ-4

[zubenelgenubi]

Recent Kennedy LC-39A launches; payload(s) requires LC-39A?:
2022
Oct 5       Falcon 9            Crew-5                     Yes
Nov 1      Falcon Heavy   USSF-44                   Yes
Nov 26   Falcon 9             SpX-26                     Yes
Dec 8      Falcon 9            OneWeb Flight 15   No
Dec 17   Falcon 9            Starlink 4-37             No
2023
Jan 15   Falcon Heavy    USSF-67                   Yes
Feb 2      Falcon 9           Starlink 5-3               No
Mar 2     Falcon 9            Crew-6                      Yes
Mar 15   Falcon 9            SpX-27                      Yes
May 1    Falcon Heavy    ViaSat-3.1                Yes

Upcoming Kennedy LC-39A launches for the remainder of the year:
Late May           Falcon 9            Axiom-2          Yes
Early/mid Jun   Falcon 9            SpX-28            Yes
NET Jul             Falcon Heavy   USSF-52          Yes
Jul 15                Falcon Heavy   Jupiter 3          Yes
Aug 17              Falcon 9            Crew-7              Yes
NET Sep           Falcon 9            Polaris Dawn   Yes
NET Oct 5         Falcon Heavy   Psyche             Yes
NET Nov           Falcon 9            Axiom-3            Yes
Dec                    Falcon 9            SpX-29              Yes
TBD                   Falcon 9            IM-1                  Yes
TBD                   Falcon 9            IM-2                  Yes

Perhaps going into the winter it'll be easier but for the time being, LC-39A's schedule is very very tight.

[hektor]

https://twitter.com/GewoonLukas_/status/1653661501733888001?s=20

[GWR64]

Group 5 is 43° inclination so far, these two too?
From the Vandenberg air force base?

0982-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1930 Starlink Group 5-8
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

0983-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1943 Starlink Group 5-13
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

[virtuallynathan]

Group 5 is 43° inclination so far, these two too?
From the Vandenberg air force base?

0982-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1930 Starlink Group 5-8
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

0983-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1943 Starlink Group 5-13
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

Also Group 5-7

[GWR64]

Group 5 is 43° inclination so far, these two too?
From the Vandenberg air force base?

0982-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1930 Starlink Group 5-8
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

0983-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1943 Starlink Group 5-13
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

Also Group 5-7

That's right, I overlooked that.
The ASDS positions are almost identical to mission 4-31 from Vandenberg. Minimal further west.
So missions 5-7, 5-8 and 5-13 go into a 53 degree inclined orbit?

[crandles57]

Recent Kennedy LC-39A launches; payload(s) requires LC-39A?:

Upcoming Kennedy LC-39A launches for the remainder of the year:
Dec                    Falcon 9            SpX-29              Yes

Does that yes to requires LC_39A mean LC-40 isn't going to be upgraded to do cargo dragon launches? And/or won't be complete by December?

[Tomness]

Recent Kennedy LC-39A launches; payload(s) requires LC-39A?:

Upcoming Kennedy LC-39A launches for the remainder of the year:
Dec                    Falcon 9            SpX-29              Yes

Does that yes to requires LC_39A mean LC-40 isn't going to be upgraded to do cargo dragon launches? And/or won't be complete by December?

They have said by Fall for LC-40 be ready for Cargo and crew after that.

[virtuallynathan]

Group 5 is 43° inclination so far, these two too?
From the Vandenberg air force base?

0982-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1930 Starlink Group 5-8
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

0983-EX-ST-2023  Mission 1943 Starlink Group 5-13
NET June from Vandy
ASDS North  North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41

Also Group 5-7

That's right, I overlooked that.
The ASDS positions are almost identical to mission 4-31 from Vandenberg. Minimal further west.
So missions 5-7, 5-8 and 5-13 go into a 53 degree inclined orbit?

AFAIK, Group 5 is 43 degrees.

[crandles57]

Can 43 degree inclination be done from VSFB?

Is the range of inclinations possible something like 51° - 145° ? In which case 53° may make more sense?

4-4 did 53.22° per https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/12/starlink-4-4/

53.2 was a generation 1 orbit. Is the generation 2 orbit exactly 53°?


Those minimal differences in ASDS positions for anyone interested
5-7 ASDS info
North  29  36  27   West  116  43  41   Autonomous Drone Ship, within 40.5 nautical miles
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=123956&RequestTimeout=1000

4-31 ASDS info
North  29  37  18   West  116  37  14   Autonomous Drone Ship, within 40.5 nautical miles
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=118688&RequestTimeout=1000

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Update on some booster allocations:

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1656224376302313474

The [USSF-52] side boosters, if they land successfully, will later be used as side boosters of the Falcon Heavy set to launch NASA's Psyche towards the metallic asteroid of same name. The side boosters originally assigned for that mission will now only fly as Falcon 9 boosters.

One of them, B1075, started already flying as single stick in January launching the Starlink Group 2-4 mission and later launched again in March to support the first SDA Tranche 0 mission. It will fly again later today from Vandenberg supporting the Starlink Group 2-9 mission.

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1656224956299235328

The other, B1072, still has to fly but latest information is that it is set to debut launching the NG-20 mission - Northrop Grumman Cygnus' first flight on Falcon 9.