SpaceX F9 / Crew Dragon : Crew-3 : November 10/11 (0203 UTC), 2021 : Discussion

[ChrisC]

Can anyone link to the launch trajectory or NOTAM(?) for this launch? I live further up the east coast and wonder if I'll be able to catch the second stage at all if its launching on a northern trajectory.

In general, Falcon 9 launches to ISS are harder to see up the East Coast because the first stage burn is short (~2.5 minutes).  Once the first stage has burned out, it gets a lot harder to spot.

Much easier to see are the Atlas launches to ISS, because the Atlas first stage burns for much longer (~4 minutes).  I have seen such launches from Atlanta!  (500+ miles away from the Cape, 100s of miles inland)  Alas, those Atlas-to-ISS launches are still very rare, since Starliner has suffered so many delays.  The two Cygnus-on-Atlas launches in 2015-2016 were two early opportunities to see this.

EDIT: if the lighting conditions are right then you can totally see the "squid" effect -- this requires that the second stage be rising into sunlight, which means not the middle of the night.  Here are some examples from across North Carolina; you should try similar searches for your state.  For this purpose, all Dragon launch trajectories are basically the same, so any Dragon launch video you find is valid for visibility of the arc.  https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=spacex+dragon+launch+north+carolina

[jacqmans]

https://twitter.com/Jacqmans1972/status/1455729044415201283?s=20

[snotis]

Eric Berger:

Hearing that the NASA/SpaceX Crew-3 launch will not happen this weekend. Crew-2 now likely to return from orbit before the launch happens.

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1456038853689626627

[Rondaz]

Support ship Doug has departed from the Crew-3 booster landing zone and appears to be returning to Port Canaveral.

However, JRTI droneship and Finn Falgout appear to be staying at the LZ.

Potential for a further delay beyond Nov 6th?

https://twitter.com/SpaceOffshore/status/1456026790795808778

[Orbiter]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the reason for the delay. Wanda is generating some pretty big swells in the abort zones and its extratropical remnants will be drifting closer to Ireland early next week. Once Wanda clears, should be good again.

[Rondaz]

Although the members of NASA/SpaceX Crew-3 haven't left the ground yet, they've certainly already made their mark around Kennedy Space Center!

Liftoff now targeting NET 11:36pm EDT Saturday, Nov 6. Backup opportunities available Nov. 7 & 8.

https://twitter.com/AlteredJamie/status/1455887681519603719

[StraumliBlight]

Launch Photography seems to confirm the delay: [updated November 3]

The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will carry the next four astronauts to the International Space Station from pad 39A on the Crew Dragon Crew-3 mission on November TBD around 10-11pm EDT

[Comga]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the reason for the delay. Wanda is generating some pretty big swells in the abort zones and its extratropical remnants will be drifting closer to Ireland early next week. Once Wanda clears, should be good again.

That’s out of date.
This morning’s NHC comment on Wanda is

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

[Orbiter]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the reason for the delay. Wanda is generating some pretty big swells in the abort zones and its extratropical remnants will be drifting closer to Ireland early next week. Once Wanda clears, should be good again.

That’s out of date.
This morning’s NHC comment on Wanda is

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

That's the NHC tropical weather outlook for all future (not active) tropical cyclones. Additional tropical cyclone development beyond Wanda is not expected.

The latest information on Wanda can be found here. Wanda is still active in the Atlantic as of 9am GMT, November 4th. Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/040846.shtml

[Lars-J]

Sounds like the medical issue that cropped up will have several more days to recover.

This makes me wonder. Has NASA abandoned the idea of backup crews?

But then again maybe the entire group would have to be replaced if they mostly train as a team.

[Vettedrmr]

You never hear of them, but OTOH you never really heard about STS backup crews before.  Or, for that matter, backup crews for Apollo, other than when they were on-camera in MC and the reporters made mention of the fact.

Not an answer to your question, but I'm guessing that they do have backup crews.  But crew flights to ISS aren't really that schedule-critical, so it might take a lot more reason to make a crew swap.

Have a good one,
Mike

[Orbiter]

NET November 8th at 9:51pm EST, provided Crew-2 does not return on Sunday.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2021/11/04/nasa-spacex-reviewing-commercial-crew-rotation-plans/

The earliest possible opportunity for NASA’s SpaceX Crew-3 launch is 9:51 p.m. EST Monday, Nov. 8, if mission teams do not pursue Crew-2 return on Sunday, Nov. 7 or Monday. Nov. 8.

[Rondaz]

Earliest opportunity for #Crew2 undocking is 19:05 CET, Sunday, 7 November. A back-up opportunity is available on Monday. The earliest opportunity for launch of #Crew3 is 03:51 CET, Tuesday, 9 November, if mission teams do not pursue the return of #Crew2 on 7/8 November.

https://twitter.com/esa/status/1456325673199484933

[SPKirsch]

https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1456428065274437632

Almost all of the recovery fleet is out and about tonight. Bob left port for a possible rendezvous with GO Searcher who appears to be doing some sea trials. Doug has stopped offshore after leaving the Crew 3 LZ. It will be interesting to see how events  finalize over the weekend.

[Rondaz]

Everybody is back in port today except Finn and Just Read the Instructions. You, Finn, I've got my eyes on you. Eyes Inching west. SMH. Don't you dare think port is looking good. Nope. Hopefully we'll hear from NASA today as they decide the Crew orders of operation.

https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1456619899875434500

[Rondaz]

Arrival!

Doug returns to Port Canaveral alone this morning, as Crew-3 is delayed further.

https://twitter.com/SpaceOffshore/status/1456606346003025925

[lenny97]

TFRs are popping up for Cape Canaveral, indication in description "Falcon 9 Crew-3".

Timing seems also to match ISS launch windows on Nov. 9 and Nov. 11 (UTC)...

[zubenelgenubi]

[TFR] Timing seems also to match ISS launch windows...on Nov. 11 (UTC)...

SFN coverage today:
No direct handover between Crew-2 and Crew-3.

Crew-3 launch November 11, 0203 UTC = November 10, 9:03 pm EST.

Launch date and time also from November 5 update of Launch Photography Viewing Guide.

[gongora]

latest NOTMAR is for the 11th (UTC) with backups the next two days

[Ken the Bin]

Here are the actual NGA notices along with known and my estimated launch times.

Primary Day = Thursday, November 11 at 02:03 UTC (Wednesday at 21:03 EST).
Backup Day #1 = Friday, November 12 at ~01:40 UTC (Thursday at ~20:40 EST).
Backup Day #2 = Saturday, November 13 at ~01:18 UTC (Friday at ~20:18 EST).

052354Z NOV 21
NAVAREA IV 1010/21(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   110158Z TO 110233Z, ALTERNATE
   120135Z TO 120210Z AND 130113Z TO 130148Z NOV
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-38-20N 080-37-13W, 28-38-23N 080-37-15W,
      28-51-00N 080-21-00W, 28-47-00N 080-19-00W,
      28-35-00N 080-28-00W, 28-34-34N 080-34-20W.
   B. 31-38-00N 077-28-00W, 32-14-00N 077-02-00W,
      32-39-00N 076-19-00W, 32-27-00N 076-07-00W,
      31-53-00N 076-38-00W, 31-29-00N 077-17-00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 996/21.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130248Z NOV 21.

060009Z NOV 21
HYDROPAC 3173/21(61,74,75).
INDIAN OCEAN.
DNC 03, DNC 04.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   110239Z TO 110316Z, ALTERNATE
   120216Z TO 120253Z AND 130154Z TO 130231Z NOV
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   20-47S 079-46E, 20-12S 081-13E,
   25-34S 088-19E, 36-18S 101-47E,
   47-20S 119-50E, 48-34S 119-08E,
   48-10S 115-48E, 43-51S 104-04E,
   37-44S 093-56E, 28-42S 084-39E,
   24-10S 081-13E.
2. CANCEL HYDROPAC 3132/21.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130331Z NOV 21.