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#260
by
Elthiryel
on 29 Jul, 2020 16:54
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Current NOTMARs also include the launch:
ATLANTIC OCEAN - FLORIDA - CAPE CANAVERAL
Eastern Range OP X0108 FALCON 9 Starlink v1.0-L9 will be conducting hazardous operations surface to unlimited within portions of Warning
Areas W497A, W497B, W137F/G, W138E, W139E/F, W140E, W141, W122 and the following Hazard Areas:
A: From 2839 40.67N 8038 9.75W
2848N 8030W
2920N 7952W
2917N 7950W
2837N 8027W
2834 20.25N 8034 15.16W
2838 25.83N 8037 17.02W to beginning
B: From 3139N 7720W
3315N 7557W
3340N 7459W
3321N 7425W
3245N 7432W
3125N 7706W to beginning
Hazard periods for primary launch day and backup launch days;
Primary Launch day: 01 / 0711Z thru 01 / 0819Z Aug 20. Preferred T-0 is 0721Z.
Backup Launch day: 02 / 0654Z thru 02 / 0757Z Aug 20. Preferred T-0 is 0659Z.
https://www.navcen.uscg.gov/pdf/lnms/lnm07302020.pdf
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#261
by
TorenAltair
on 30 Jul, 2020 05:35
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Storm #9 is now officially a storm named Isaias and scheduled to hit the cape on Saturday, August 1, 2020.
Image NOAA
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#262
by
zubenelgenubi
on 30 Jul, 2020 06:04
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Storm #9 is now officially a storm named Isaias and scheduled to hit the cape on Saturday, August 1, 2020.
Image NOAA
Take a closer look at the storm path timeline vs. the August 1 launch time: 3:21 am EDT.
At launch time on Saturday the 1st, Isaias is forecast to be in between the Friday 8 pm and Saturday 8 am time-marks. That location is west of Andros Island in the Bahamas. That is well to the southeast of Miami, FL.
I think that's too far away to affect either launch weather criteria and the drone ship landing weather criteria.
A delay to the Sunday, August 2 launch window--a different matter.
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#263
by
Jarnis
on 30 Jul, 2020 09:55
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However, it could complicate the returning of the booster to the port.
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#264
by
TorenAltair
on 30 Jul, 2020 12:26
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@zubenelgenubi
I agree with you. Though two points of concern I see. First the storm sped up a bit the last days, which should on the one hand be better that it can't suck it that much more additional energy but it could cross the launch time. The second issue I can imagine is if it increases in strength like storm 8 in Texas which grew to a hurricane level 1 if there is enough time even if the launch "fits" before the storm if there is enough time to handle all necessary safing thereafter.
But if I remember correctly SpaceX already had a launch ?2? years ago squeezed in just before a storm. Let's hope for the best especially for the people underneath the storm the next days.
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#265
by
intelati
on 30 Jul, 2020 13:04
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Look at the Tropical Storm force wind arrival time. Currently hitting the Cape at ~8PM Saturday.
Going to be a close thing.
With the Droneship and recovery, I don't thing SpaceX would risk losing the rocket....
But. What do I know... *shrugs*
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#266
by
Ken the Bin
on 30 Jul, 2020 14:32
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NGA update: launch is postponed.
301356Z JUL 20
NAVAREA IV 672/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
CANCEL NAVAREA IV 661/20 AND THIS MSG, OPERATIONS
POSTPONED.
Referenced as canceled:
271353Z JUL 20
NAVAREA IV 661/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
010711Z TO 010819Z AUG ALTERNATE
020654Z TO 020757Z AUG
IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A. 28-39-41N 080-38-10W, 28-48-00N 080-30-00W,
29-20-00N 079-52-00W, 29-17-00N 079-50-00W,
28-37-00N 080-27-00W, 28-34-20N 080-34-15W,
28-38-26N 080-37-17W.
B. 31-39-00N 077-20-00W, 33-15-00N 075-57-00W,
33-40-00N 074-59-00W, 33-21-00N 074-25-00W,
32-45-00N 074-32-00W, 31-25-00N 077-06-00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 655/20.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 020857Z AUG 20.
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#267
by
Comga
on 30 Jul, 2020 17:25
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Look at the Tropical Storm force wind arrival time. Currently hitting the Cape at ~8PM Saturday.
Going to be a close thing.
With the Droneship and recovery, I don't think SpaceX would risk losing the rocket....
But. What do I know... *shrugs*
This interpretation is better than some of those before it, but analysis of the graphs requires care
This graph says this prediction is ~30% probability of tropical storm force winds arriving at the Cape no earlier than ~2AM Sunday.
FWIW.
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#268
by
intelati
on 30 Jul, 2020 17:34
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Look at the Tropical Storm force wind arrival time. Currently hitting the Cape at ~8PM Saturday.
Going to be a close thing.
With the Droneship and recovery, I don't think SpaceX would risk losing the rocket....
But. What do I know... *shrugs*
This interpretation is better than some of those before it, but analysis of the graphs requires care
This graph says this prediction is ~30% probability of tropical storm force winds arriving at the Cape no earlier than ~2AM Sunday.
FWIW.
Took me a minute to figure out the
website layout.
Here's a higher res map.
Edit: Lord, I'm having issues today...
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#269
by
Elthiryel
on 30 Jul, 2020 17:53
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#270
by
ATPTourFan
on 30 Jul, 2020 21:28
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#271
by
M.E.T.
on 31 Jul, 2020 04:13
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This flight is starting to feel cursed. Feels like this batch of birds is always a week away from joining the flock in orbit. Hope this is not a sign of things to come for future Starlink launches. They need to be accelerating cadence, not slowing down.
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#272
by
Star One
on 31 Jul, 2020 07:01
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This flight is starting to feel cursed. Feels like this batch of birds is always a week away from joining the flock in orbit. Hope this is not a sign of things to come for future Starlink launches. They need to be accelerating cadence, not slowing down.
You’re over extrapolating from a few issues on one launch.
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#273
by
M.E.T.
on 31 Jul, 2020 09:09
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This flight is starting to feel cursed. Feels like this batch of birds is always a week away from joining the flock in orbit. Hope this is not a sign of things to come for future Starlink launches. They need to be accelerating cadence, not slowing down.
You’re over extrapolating from a few issues on one launch.
Not extrapolating anything. Just expressing hope that such delays don’t become more prevalent. Hopefully we see a flurry of Starlink launches over the course of the next month to get them back on schedule.
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#274
by
smoliarm
on 31 Jul, 2020 12:12
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This flight is starting to feel cursed. Feels like this batch of birds is always a week away from joining the flock in orbit. Hope this is not a sign of things to come for future Starlink launches. They need to be accelerating cadence, not slowing down.
You’re over extrapolating from a few issues on one launch.
Not extrapolating anything. Just expressing hope that such delays don’t become more prevalent. Hopefully we see a flurry of Starlink launches over the course of the next month to get them back on schedule.
C'mon
Such delays - caused by tropical storms/hurricanes - they ARE prevalent (more or less) during the hurricane season.
also
Such delays - caused by new technology development (like in "nobody did this before - ever") - they ARE prevalent - indeed.
This flight is going to use B1051 which flied FOUR times before. They do not have much experience with so *heavily used* boosters (nobody has), so delays are inevitable.
Especially - in project where they do not have much deadline pressure.
Bottom line - IMHO, there is no curse, just combination of bad weather with new tech.
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#275
by
clongton
on 31 Jul, 2020 12:15
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Bottom line - IMHO, there is no curse, just combination of bad weather with new tech.
Amen. From someone who grew up watching them just trying to get a rocket - any rocket - to lift off the pad without blowing up, let alone actually reaching space, stuff like delays for weather are just so "oh well". F9 is going to fly. There is literally no such thing as a curse on a rocket. Come on.
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#276
by
rsdavis9
on 31 Jul, 2020 12:54
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It seems that spacex whether they like it or not does flurries of rocket launches. Basically with 2 pads and quick turn around on the pad they build up a bunch of boosters and 2nd stages and payloads and then launch very quickly. Then because of various delays goes through a dry spell.
Nothing wrong with that. In fact it might be better from the standpoint of pad personnel to have on and off times like this. Once you get into the rhythm, keep doing it. More efficient from a human perspective.
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#277
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 31 Jul, 2020 13:35
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twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1289185594866913287
Arrival at @PortCanaveral: GO Quest! Finn Falgout & the ‘Of Course I Still Love You’ droneship are not far behind, and will enter in the next 10 minutes. #SpaceXFleet
https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1289188977149280256Arrival at @PortCanaveral: Finn Falgout with the ‘Of Course I Still Love You’ droneship in tow, now at the end of the Jetty. Back after departing only 2 days ago for the presumed Starlink batch 10 mission, likely due to hurricane #Isaias.
#SpaceXFleet
Edit to add:
twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1289200281612251139
Did you know 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on launch delays? 🦎
The ‘Of Course I Still Love You’ droneship is back after departing only 2 days ago for the presumed Starlink batch 10 mission, likely to wait out hurricane #Isaias.
#SpaceXFleet
https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1289202848958255106👋🏼🌀
Couple more shots from the 'Of Course I Still Love You' droneship return this morning.
#SpaceXFleet
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#278
by
Ronsmytheiii
on 31 Jul, 2020 19:08
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Dont forget that revenue launches (ie anything other than Starlink) probably have priority, while Starlink goes when the other payloads arent ready.
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#279
by
the_other_Doug
on 31 Jul, 2020 19:40
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I think people are just annoyed that the Landing Bingo can only support one mission at a time, sequentially. The more flights get popped in front of the current active Bingo game, and the fewer Bingo games we can have.
It's all about the breads and circuses, man...
