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#220
by
Nomadd
on 14 Jul, 2020 18:35
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I would expect plenty 2nd stages through production, but not necessarily on-site. They had seemed to try to time their deliveries of 'new' parts as late as reasonable the last time I watched closely (which was admittedly a while ago)
I've heard from a company person that the "lean production" philosophy of getting nothing before you needed it worked about as well as most people assumed it would, and they've gone to more stock and redundancy thinking in most things.
Schemes that require everything to go exactly as planned always seemed a little optimistic to me.
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#221
by
SteveU
on 14 Jul, 2020 20:05
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I would expect plenty 2nd stages through production, but not necessarily on-site. They had seemed to try to time their deliveries of 'new' parts as late as reasonable the last time I watched closely (which was admittedly a while ago)
I've heard from a company person that the "lean production" philosophy of getting nothing before you needed it worked about as well as most people assumed it would, and they've gone to more stock and redundancy thinking in most things.
Schemes that require everything to go exactly as planned always seemed a little optimistic to me.
Just-In_Time inventory control was a big fad in the early 80's when i was involved in manufacturing. Didn't work very well then and i doubt it has aged well. Especially in Areospace.
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#222
by
zubenelgenubi
on 14 Jul, 2020 21:59
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My speculation re: launch cadence from KSC/CCAFS, as of this post:
Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)
2020
NET Mid-July 10 11 - 14:54
Mid-July 14 19 - Anasis II (KMilSatCom 1, KMSC-1, URC-700K) - Falcon 9-090 (B1058.2) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 21:00-00:55
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50
July 25 - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August)
NET Late July August - Starlink flight 11 (x58) [v1.0 L10], SkySat 19, SkySat 20, SkySat 21 - Falcon 9-092 (S) - Canaveral SLC-40
August ? 2 - SiriusXM SXM-7 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 04:27:00
Changes on July 9th
Changes on July 10th
Changes on July 11th
Changes on July 12th
Changes on July 13th
Changes on July 14th
zubenelgenubi
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#223
by
sferrin
on 15 Jul, 2020 11:48
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I would expect plenty 2nd stages through production, but not necessarily on-site. They had seemed to try to time their deliveries of 'new' parts as late as reasonable the last time I watched closely (which was admittedly a while ago)
I've heard from a company person that the "lean production" philosophy of getting nothing before you needed it worked about as well as most people assumed it would, and they've gone to more stock and redundancy thinking in most things.
Schemes that require everything to go exactly as planned always seemed a little optimistic to me.
Just-In_Time inventory control was a big fad in the early 80's when i was involved in manufacturing. Didn't work very well then and i doubt it has aged well. Especially in Areospace.
It hasn't. Hell, just look at the CF to the supply chain caused by coronavirus.
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#224
by
Ronsmytheiii
on 15 Jul, 2020 15:44
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Vehicle rolling back to the HIF:
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#225
by
zubenelgenubi
on 20 Jul, 2020 23:28
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As of immediately after the successful Falcon 9 launch of
ANASIS-II from SLC-40:
Which Space Coast Falcon 9 launch will be next? And when?
The
Starlink flight from LC-39A?
Or the
SAOCOM-1B launch from SLC-40?
Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)
2020
NET Late July - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-090 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:00-12:00
NET July 25 - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August)
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50
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#226
by
wannamoonbase
on 21 Jul, 2020 19:20
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As of immediately after the successful Falcon 9 launch of ANASIS-II from SLC-40:
Which Space Coast Falcon 9 launch will be next? And when?
The Starlink flight from LC-39A?
Or the SAOCOM-1B launch from SLC-40?
Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)
2020
NET Late July - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-090 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:00-12:00
NET July 25 - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August)
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50
5 day turn around on SLC40 would be a very impressive achievement.
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#227
by
zubenelgenubi
on 21 Jul, 2020 19:35
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5 day turn around on SLC40 would be a very impressive achievement.
Precisely.
We now think that we know that Static Fire for the SAOCOM 1B launch will occur 5 days before launch. Ben Cooper currently has the same launch listed for late July or early August.My hypothesis: If either the
Starlink et al. payloads or the
SAOCOM 1B et al. payloads are ready, then SpaceX would proceed with the launch campaign for that one launch before the Atlas V mission on July 30. The other Falcon 9 launch would wait until afterwards.
My modified mini-schedule:
Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)
2020
NET Late July - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-090 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:00-12:00 (one Falcon 9 launch before and one Falcon 9 launch after Perseverance launch)
NET July 25 late July or early August - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August) (one Falcon 9 launch before and one Falcon 9 launch after Perseverance launch)
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50
commentary by zubenelgenubi
(I would love to be surprised and have 2 MORE successful Falcon 9 launches before July 30, but I must be practical.)
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#228
by
Raul
on 23 Jul, 2020 06:34
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New launch date NET July 29 according to issued NOTAM for Stage2 Debris Reentry.
MELBOURNE (FIR/FIC/ACC/COM/MET)
NOTAM #: F2077/20 Class: International Start Date UTC: 07/29/2020 1052 End Date UTC: 07/30/2020 1108 Status: Active
F2077/20 NOTAMR F2076/20
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/5056S10832E999
A) YMMM
B) 2007291052 C) 2007301108
D) PRI RE-ENTRY 29 1052-1130
BACKUP RE-ENTRY 30 1030-1108
E) ROCKET LAUNCH
FLW RECEIVED FROM GOVERNMENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:
HAZARDOUS OPS WILL BE CONDUCTED FOR ATMOSPHERIC RE-ENTRY AND
SPLASHDOWN OF OP X0108 LAUNCH VEHICLE FALCON 9
WI THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
2846S 06255E
2716S 06305E
2743S 06502E
3856S 08255E
4342S 09236E
4619S 10020E
4912S 11102E
5041S 12231E
5103S 14326E
5014S 15650E
5040S 15702E
5509S 13852E
5523S 11812E
5332S 10401E
5033S 09329E
4610S 08303E
4041S 07402E
3527S 06743E
3113S 06420E TO BEGINNING
F) SFC G) UNL
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#229
by
Hummy
on 23 Jul, 2020 10:46
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Launch time assuming the same sequence of orbit raising manoeuvres as was planned for previous launch attempts:
2020-07-29 08:26 UTC 2020-07-29 04:26 AM EDT
2020-07-30 08:04 UTC 2020-07-30 04:04 AM EDT
2020-07-31 07:43 UTC 2020-07-31 03:43 AM EDT
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#230
by
Norm38
on 23 Jul, 2020 13:44
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Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?
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#231
by
RocketLover0119
on 23 Jul, 2020 14:23
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Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?
I would say yes because a falcon has launched from 40 with an atlas sitting next door, but with how big of a mission this is that atlas is carrying I honestly don’t know.
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#232
by
wannamoonbase
on 23 Jul, 2020 14:36
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Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?
I would say yes because a falcon has launched from 40 with an atlas sitting next door, but with how big of a mission this is that atlas is carrying I honestly don’t know.
My guess is this, that SpaceX can prepare for the 29th and if Perseverance slips a day or more they can go. If it doesn't slip then SpaceX stands down for a few days until SLC41 is clear.
I don't imagine SpaceX wants to be even seen as getting in the way of an interplanetary launch. There is competition between launch providers, but I think all of us space fans can appreciate missions like Perseverance.
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#233
by
anof
on 23 Jul, 2020 14:48
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Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?
I think it depends on when roll out of the Atlas happens. I believe in the past once Atlas is at the pad Falcon static fires or launches wait.
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#234
by
zubenelgenubi
on 23 Jul, 2020 15:16
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#235
by
IntoTheVoid
on 23 Jul, 2020 15:45
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Does the position of the NOTAM exclude the possibilty that this is for SAOCOM rather than L9, or is that just an assumption?
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#236
by
Star One
on 23 Jul, 2020 15:50
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Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?
I think it depends on when roll out of the Atlas happens. I believe in the past once Atlas is at the pad Falcon static fires or launches wait.
Does the fact that Atlas is carrying a ‘nuclear’ payload have any impact, or is that irrelevant considering all the safety features built into that payload.
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#237
by
zubenelgenubi
on 23 Jul, 2020 16:04
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Does the position of the NOTAM exclude the possibilty that this is for SAOCOM rather than L9, or is that just an assumption?
See the coordinates of the polygon describing the second stage re-entry zone in the
NOTMAR quoted above. The polygon describes the southernmost section of a sinusoidal curve, which is how an orbit is projected onto the Earth's surface. Those latitudes of those coordinates approximately match the orbit inclination of
Starlink satellites.
The second stage re-entry zone for
SAOCOM 1B should run roughly north-south, as it's going to a polar orbit (more exactly, a sun-synchronous orbit).
(If someone could map the NOTAM, it would be appreciated!)
EDIT: See map
here.
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#238
by
zubenelgenubi
on 23 Jul, 2020 16:12
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Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?
I think it depends on when roll out of the Atlas happens. I believe in the past once Atlas is at the pad Falcon static fires or launches wait.
Does the fact that Atlas is carrying a ‘nuclear’ payload have any impact, or is that irrelevant considering all the safety features built into that payload.
Apparently, it's all approved. (I would like to read an explicit confirmation of such.)
Falcon 9 can launch on July 29 with Atlas V/MMRTG-loaded
Perseverance on its pad a few miles away.
Atlas V will move from its VIF to the pad on July 28.This would be a feat of coordination and cooperation for all involved.
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#239
by
zubenelgenubi
on 23 Jul, 2020 19:10
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