Plan to put Indian on moon in 2020

• Plan to put Indian on moon in 2020 by Chris Bergin on 02 Nov, 2006 01:30
• http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1833877,00040005.htm
• #1 by Martin FL on 02 Nov, 2006 02:35
• I think we need to hear more of this sort of thing from China and give the US a motive to push on ourselves.
• #2 by Super George on 02 Nov, 2006 04:14
• Is this overly hopeful, or could India do this? Will they need NASA help and could NASA make a load of cash from that?
• #3 by fdasun on 02 Nov, 2006 05:32
• Quote

  Martin FL - 2/11/2006  11:18 AM
  
  I think we need to hear more of this sort of thing from China and give the US a motive to push on ourselves.

  
  Yesterday China Central TV Station (CCTV) reported that China is aiming at robotic missions of moon landing & return by 2020. Not mention anything of manned flights to moon at all.
• #4 by hoorenz on 02 Nov, 2006 05:57
• "A training centre — with a zero gravity chamber- too has to be constructed".
  
  Wow....
• #5 by Dana on 02 Nov, 2006 07:10
• Quote

  hoorenz - 1/11/2006  10:40 PM
  
  "A training centre — with a zero gravity chamber- too has to be constructed".
  
  Wow....

  
  Antigravity! Woo-Hoo! Where do I sign up?
• #6 by MartianBase on 02 Nov, 2006 08:34
• Quote

  Super George - 1/11/2006  10:57 PM
  
  Is this overly hopeful, or could India do this? Will they need NASA help and could NASA make a load of cash from that?

  
  India has a wonderful culture, and great people but the government there is usually a mess, large scale poverty, child slavery, cast system....I'm happy to see the good and positive changes going on in India due to economic growth but there are still behind in many areas. On space they have done no projects for manned flights before, have launched some satellites but have little experience in exploration, and one the last ISRO launches ended in an explosion. As for India's robotic exploration, there isn't  much there and they have done little when compared to the achievements of the Japanese or Europeans.
  
  I won't say its impossible for India to land a man on the Moon by 2020, but they don't even have a man-rated rocket and they'd want to get their program up to speed quick if they want to play with the big boys in Russia or the USA.
• #7 by hop on 03 Nov, 2006 00:28
• Quote

  MartianBase - 2/11/2006  1:17 AM
  I won't say its impossible for India to land a man on the Moon by 2020, but they don't even have a man-rated rocket and they'd want to get their program up to speed quick if they want to play with the big boys in Russia or the USA.

  Agreed, if it was a major national objective like Apollo was for the US, there isn't any reason to think they couldn't do it. However, given the much more pressing issues facing India at the moment, it's very hard to see that level of commitment.
  
  If they pursue manned flight at all, I would expect it to be at a slow pace like the Chinese program. The first unmanned test flight of Shenzhou was in 1999. The first manned flight didn't come till 2003. The exact development timeline isn't clear, but according to astronautix, the agreement to buy Soyuz technology was completed in 1995, with construction of test articles started that year. That's 8 years from committing to the program to flying a manned flight, despite significant heritage from an existing spacecraft, and a fair bit of work on manned flight prior to that. Of course, China ended up with capable spacecraft, completely bypassing the Vostok/Voskhod/Mercury phase.
  
  If they do follow roughly the same pace as China, that would put the first manned flight around 2014, which is what the article suggests. Hmm.
  
  If India decided to start with a Vostok equivalent craft, development could be quicker. OTOH, they have less spaceflight experience than China did at the start of Shenzhou, and if they are serious about using indigenous technology, that will likely slow things down. A manned lunar flight only 6 years after the first manned flight seems highly optimistic, especially given the lack of a suitable launcher.
  
  This article looks to me like the press once again confusing what the space program engineers want to do with what the politicians have committed to fund, but the talk of a near future capsule test is pretty intriguing.
  

  Quote

  A formal project report will be submitted to the government before the end of the year and trials will start in early 2007.
  
  ISRO will conduct a space-capsule-recovery experiment. A 600-kg module, which will be hoisted by a PSLV (Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle) rocket, will orbit the earth for a week and splash down in the Bay of Bengal from where it will be retrieved. The experiment will be repeated in 2008.

  Does this mean they have designed the initial capsule and are looking for final go-ahead to fly it ?  Unless they have actually started bending metal, the timeline seems pretty optimistic. There also doesn't seem to be any mention of this project on the ISRO site.
  
  Converting the obscure units,  the reported cost is rs 100-150 billion, or roughly 2.2-3.3 billion USD at todays rates. That would be ~275-410 million USD/year for an 8 year program. For comparison, the entire ISRO budget for 2006-2007 was reported as $815 million here http://www.space.com/spacenews/archive06/Isro_030606.html
  
  Payload wise, PSLV and GSLV are sufficient to launch a modest manned capsule, but neither would be my first choice for a manned launcher.
• #8 by Chris Bergin on 03 Nov, 2006 03:16
• But India won't be seen as a "threat" - we need one of the bad boys to start pushing on this to give the US a reason to push themselves
• #9 by vt_hokie on 03 Nov, 2006 03:41
• Quote

  MartianBase - 2/11/2006  4:17 AM
  
  India has a wonderful culture, and great people but the government there is usually a mess, large scale poverty, child slavery, cast system....

  
  China has its share of poverty, and it hasn't stopped them from putting together a manned space program.
• #10 by MartianBase on 03 Nov, 2006 05:10
• Quote

  Chris Bergin - 2/11/2006  9:59 PM
  
  But India won't be seen as a "threat" - we need one of the bad boys to start pushing on this to give the US a reason to push themselves

  
  India was something of a rival during the Coldwar, as far as I remember Nixon, Kissinger and even Carter hated them for their stance next to the Russians, Nixon used to call Indira Gandhi some nasty names.
• #11 by hop on 03 Nov, 2006 06:02
• Quote

  vt_hokie - 2/11/2006  8:24 PM
  China has its share of poverty, and it hasn't stopped them from putting together a manned space program.

  Development wise, China is in a much better position. India is doing reasonably well, but it has nothing like the massive industrial base and huge trade surplus that China does. India is also a democracy, and so unlike China, would have to justify the expenditure to the people.
  
  

  Quote

  MartianBase
  India was something of a rival during the Coldwar
  

  The cold war is over and attitudes in Washington have obviously changed. In the 90s, we tried to block the transfer of cryogenic engine tech from Russia on the dubious grounds that it was missile proliferation (because as we all know LOX/LH2 makes great ICBMs...) Today, the administration is pushing for an agreement on selling civilian nuclear technology to them. Barring drastic changes, this pragmatic approach is likely to continue, as it is in our interest to promote the continued development of a reasonably stable secular democracy.
• #12 by hektor on 03 Nov, 2006 11:29
• Reasonably, they can do a human mission in Low Earth Orbit, and maybe have a kind of space station there by 2020.
  
  Moon , I doubt it without an Ares V class system. They are far from that launcher wise.
• #13 by meiza on 03 Nov, 2006 11:39
• Seems every month there is news that this nation (China, India, Japan, even EU) is going to put a Man On The Moon Real Soon Now... Blah blah.
• #14 by publiusr on 03 Nov, 2006 17:13
• The new GSLV III concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSLV_III
• #15 by HarryM on 03 Nov, 2006 18:10
• "Show me the rupees..."
• #16 by meiza on 03 Nov, 2006 18:45
• Quote

  publiusr - 3/11/2006  5:56 PM
  
  The new GSLV III concept: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GSLV_III

  
  Interesting, a somewhat smaller Ariane V with storable mainstage... Considering the previous Indian launcher used Ariane 4 inspiration, I guess this is logical.
• #17 by hektor on 07 Nov, 2006 08:52
• They are announcing 150 billion rupees over 7 years (2007-14), i.e. 3 billion dollars for this spacecraft. Seems reasonable but would require an increase (100% ?) of the ISRO budget.
• #18 by hop on 07 Nov, 2006 09:32
• Quote

  hektor - 7/11/2006  1:35 AM
  They are announcing 150 billion rupees over 7 years (2007-14), i.e. 3 billion dollars for this spacecraft. Seems reasonable but would require an increase (100% ?) of the ISRO budget.

  This years budget was reported as $815 million here http://www.space.com/spacenews/archive06/Isro_030606.html so it would be more like a 50% increase. No completely implausible, but not exactly small change either. This years figure was reportedly a 35% increase from previous years, and includes GSLV 3 development.
• #19 by hektor on 07 Nov, 2006 11:33
• Here is the outcome of the meeting of today :
  http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/008200611071540.htm
  Bottom line : green light from the scientists, decision is now in the hands of the Indian government, sometimes in early 2007.
• #20 by jacqmans on 07 Nov, 2006 18:07
• (ISRO Press Release)
  
  Scientists Discuss Indian Manned Space Mission
  
  
  November 7, 2006  
   
   A meeting to discuss the issues related to Indian Manned Space Mission was organized by ISRO at its Headquarters in Antariksh Bhavan, Bangalore, today (November 7, 2006). About 80 senior scientists from across the country participated in the meeting.
  
  Dr B N Suresh, Director, Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) presented to the gathering of scientists, the studies carried out by ISRO in the last four years to examine the technological challenges of a manned space mission and the Indian capability to undertake such a mission. Mr Madan Lal, Deputy Director, VSSC, made a detailed presentation on the various aspects of the mission.
  
  The concept for the manned space mission include the development of an autonomous Orbital Vehicle which could be launched by India’s Geo-synchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle, GSLV-Mk II, or GSLV-Mk III. The study highlighted that ISRO has maturity in many technologies required for manned space mission. However, new developments are required in life support systems, improved reliability and safety, crew escape system, etc. While some of the facilities required are available in the country and could be used with augmentation, a few have to be established afresh. The preliminary estimated cost for the Manned Space Mission is Rs.10,000 crore spread over a period of 8 years.
  
  The gathering of scientists attending the meeting today was highly appreciative of the study conducted by ISRO and unanimous in suggesting that the time is appropriate for India to undertake a manned mission. They had lengthy discussions on various technical aspects. They stressed the need for reliability and safety aspects of the mission and suggested many issues to be studied further.
  
  Among those who attended the meeting today were Prof U R Rao, Prof Yash Pal, Prof R Narasimha, Dr R M Vasagam, Shri N Pant, Dr P S Goel, Wg Cmdr Rakesh Sharma, Dr N Balakrishnan, Dr A R Upadhya, Dr T S Prahlad, Dr S Vasantha, Prof G N V Rao, Prof V Radhakrishnan, Mr A K Saxena, K V S S Prasad, Mr Avinash Chander, AVM D C Kumaria, Lt Gen Vijan, Dr Pankaj Tyagi besides Mr G Madhavan Nair, Chairman, ISRO, directors and senior scientists of ISRO Centres.
   
  
• #21 by meiza on 07 Nov, 2006 19:55
• Let's not declare a race before the government approves the money.
• #22 by hektor on 10 Nov, 2006 13:11
• French weekly Air & Cosmos says this week that the Indian capsule will be a two-seater. I wonder where they got that from.
  
  I thought so far that it would be another adapted Soyuz design, now who knows?
• #23 by josh_simonson on 10 Nov, 2006 18:33

• The article I read said that the manned/lunar effort would see a tripling of ISRO's budget.  That's a major infusion of cash.

   

  It'll take more than the GSLV3 to get them to the moon, 10-20 10t launches is unreasonable.  They need a 20-30t launcher minimum.  With 3x the budget though, the GSLV4 could begin development.  Perhaps they could buy RD-171s or RD-180s and develop their own atlas/angara CBC. 
  

• #24 by hektor on 10 Nov, 2006 19:48
• Tripling is far too low for a Moon mission. They will be able to do the human craft, but I think that a human mission to the Moon requires far more money than that.
• #25 by hop on 11 Nov, 2006 00:38
• Quote

  hektor - 10/11/2006  5:54 AM
  
  French weekly Air & Cosmos says this week that the Indian capsule will be a two-seater. I wonder where they got that from.
  

  Space.com says that too: http://www.space.com/news/061110_india_mannedspace.html
  The same article reports the projected cost is $ 2.5 billion to $3 billion per year, rather than over the life of the program as the Hindustan Times article implied, and that a test reentry vehicle has been built and will be flown in January '07.
  
  
• #26 by subzero788 on 11 Nov, 2006 12:27
• Quote

  Space.com - 11/11/2006
  
  "While ISRO is just now revealing its plans, it has been quietly preparing for manned space missions ever since China put an astronaut in space in 2003. It has redesigned an existing satellite launcher – the GSLV — to carry a crew of two and has already built a space recovery capsule, said B.N. Suresh, director of the ISRO centre in Trivandrum..."
  
  

  
  Looks like the IRSO has been planning this for a while. Does this mean that the GSLV III will be man rated?