Assessing the Impact of U.S. Air Force National Security Space Launch Acquisition DecisionsAn Independent Analysis of the Global Heavy Lift Launch MarketPrefaceThe U.S. Air Force (USAF) today stands at a crossroads with respect to its space vehi- cle launch acquisition strategy. For years, it has relied on Atlas V and Delta IV rockets to launch heavy National Security Space (NSS) payloads—typically those weighing 5,000 pounds or more—for defense and intelligence clients. However, the Atlas V is powered by Russian engines. Under U.S. law, the USAF is prohibited after 2022 from purchasing rockets with engines designed or manufactured in Russia. Moreover, the Delta family will be retired from service over the next few years. Despite these retire- ments, the USAF is nevertheless required to sustain at least two viable launch vehicle providers for NSS payloads, and those payloads must be launched from U.S. soil. With 30-plus unprocured NSS launches forecasted for the 2022–2025 period and replace- ment launch vehicles still in development, the USAF’s ability to fulfill vital NSS mis- sions has come under substantial congressional scrutiny.The USAF asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to independently analyze the heavy lift launch market to assess how decisions the USAF might make in the near term could affect domestic launch providers and the market in general. The research reported here was commissioned by the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center and conducted within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project entitled Space Launch Market Research and Assessment. The intended audience for this report includes the U.S. Department of Defense, USAF leader- ship, and the U.S. Congress.
U.S. Air Force and NASA funding for large rockets paid to ULA, SpaceX, Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin since 2005.Source: RAND rand.org/content/dam/ra…
Thus, the size of the global addressable market, the leading position that SpaceX has in this market, and the fact that the U.S. share is likely to shrink mean that the global heavy lift launch market is unlikely to support more than one U.S. provider of launch services focused on commercial heavy lift.
Long-Term StrategyThe USAF should make prudent preparations for a future with only two U.S. provid- ers of NSS-certified heavy lift launch, at least one of which may have little support from the commercial marketplace.
How long does it take to develop and launch a new heavy-lift rocket?A RAND study of the schedules for Air Force certification of Blue Origin's New Glenn, Northrop Grumman's OmegA, ULA's Vulcan, and SpaceX's Falcon Heavy:rand.org/content/dam/ra…
The dollar figure for ULA's launch contracts with NASA seems very questionable. We know they have flown missions for not just NASA science but also 3rd party procument for NASA contracted payloads such as Boeing's Starliner and NGIS Cygnus missions.... so how do they get $0?Even if you assume this is Vulcan only that ignores the launches on contract for Dream Chaser and CRS2.I haven't read the report, maybe that gets addressed in there?
