SpaceX Dragon XL

[DistantTemple]

Every vehicle they make is more experience. Making a vehicle that is mostly a rearrangement of their existing systems is still good experience. Since they are getting paid for DXL, SX are getting paid to practice their engineering, and its not taking much attention away from other projects.
I suspect there will still be valid uses for DXL even when there are dozens of Starships flying about cheaply. A rich transport environment doesn't just need big trucks. 

Edit: One point is the DXL's smaller size and Mass will be less risk to docking ports etc during docking, or station raising type activities.

[groundbound]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Starship is going to make all other launch vehicles obsolete, and that includes F9 snd FH.
No point in using F91.1 after F9 block 5 became operational, and there will be no point in using FH and Dragon cargo when starships are routinely passing by with fuel.
Add: They know from the start that Dragon XL is supposed to come later, because the LOPG was deemed non critical.

That's why I thought that If they are serious about the HLS contract deadline, than they cant be serious about Dragon XL.

You are talking about various government contracts. Those missions require various launcher certifications, many of which will not be granted for years after Starship flies. Any schedule with SS on it has a high degree of uncertainty for quite some time. Many contracts and bids will not allow that.

So assuming that SS becomes everything we hope it will be, it will exist in parallel with F9/FH for some number of years.

[niwax]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Starship is going to make all other launch vehicles obsolete, and that includes F9 snd FH.
No point in using F91.1 after F9 block 5 became operational, and there will be no point in using FH and Dragon cargo when starships are routinely passing by with fuel.
Add: They know from the start that Dragon XL is supposed to come later, because the LOPG was deemed non critical.

That's why I thought that If they are serious about the HLS contract deadline, than they cant be serious about Dragon XL.

You are talking about various government contracts. Those missions require various launcher certifications, many of which will not be granted for years after Starship flies. Any schedule with SS on it has a high degree of uncertainty for quite some time. Many contracts and bids will not allow that.

So assuming that SS becomes everything we hope it will be, it will exist in parallel with F9/FH for some number of years.

Also, it is absolutely possible that the contracts get amended or even partially combined later on. Dragon started out as a one-use spacecraft on a new Falcon 9 1.0. Now it flies reused capsules on reused F9 B5. The way it got there was by making their customer reasonable offers. They might well ask to fly XL on cargo Starships or even offer to reduce cost by combining a cargo flight with a new lander deployment. But the basis for all of this is having a contract in the first place, which is what they got.

[Lars-J]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Starship is going to make all other launch vehicles obsolete, and that includes F9 snd FH.
No point in using F91.1 after F9 block 5 became operational, and there will be no point in using FH and Dragon cargo when starships are routinely passing by with fuel.
Add: They know from the start that Dragon XL is supposed to come later, because the LOPG was deemed non critical.

That's why I thought that If they are serious about the HLS contract deadline, than they cant be serious about Dragon XL.

They are serious about both. But less so about Starship. It is pretty clear that NASA views Starship as low probability but super great if it does become a reality - but they cannot (nor should they) bet the farm on it.

But if Starship flies and is ready to provide service to the gateway station before Dragon XL, then I'm sure NASA will be more than happy to amend the contract and change the delivery vehicle. While vehicles are part of the bid, NASA is buying services, not vehicles per-se.

I think SpaceX could have Dragon XL ready pretty soon, I think the gateway itself is the "long pole" there. There is no reason for SpaceX to accelerate Dragon XL development if there is no destination for it, and it looks like it will be years away.

And should Starship become operational before the lunar gateway is operational, then you will see Dragon XL fade away - but not before.

[wannamoonbase]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Starship is going to make all other launch vehicles obsolete, and that includes F9 snd FH.
No point in using F91.1 after F9 block 5 became operational, and there will be no point in using FH and Dragon cargo when starships are routinely passing by with fuel.
Add: They know from the start that Dragon XL is supposed to come later, because the LOPG was deemed non critical.

That's why I thought that If they are serious about the HLS contract deadline, than they cant be serious about Dragon XL.

They are serious about both. But less so about Starship. It is pretty clear that NASA views Starship as low probability but super great if it does become a reality - but they cannot (nor should they) bet the farm on it.

But if Starship flies and is ready to provide service to the gateway station before Dragon XL, then I'm sure NASA will be more than happy to amend the contract and change the delivery vehicle. While vehicles are part of the bid, NASA is buying services, not vehicles per-se.

I think SpaceX could have Dragon XL ready pretty soon, I think the gateway itself is the "long pole" there. There is no reason for SpaceX to accelerate Dragon XL development if there is no destination for it, and it looks like it will be years away.

And should Starship become operational before the lunar gateway is operational, then you will see Dragon XL fade away - but not before.

Perhaps, but SpaceX will have to do the work in a good faith effort for Dragon XL.  NASA will need it, and the SS schedule is highly uncertain.  Also, there will be milestone payments on the development and SpaceX will want that revenue.

Perhaps SpaceX's best bet is leverage any development tasks for Dragon that can be applied to SS.  Navigation, radiation hardening, who knows what else.

[Lars-J]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Starship is going to make all other launch vehicles obsolete, and that includes F9 snd FH.
No point in using F91.1 after F9 block 5 became operational, and there will be no point in using FH and Dragon cargo when starships are routinely passing by with fuel.
Add: They know from the start that Dragon XL is supposed to come later, because the LOPG was deemed non critical.

That's why I thought that If they are serious about the HLS contract deadline, than they cant be serious about Dragon XL.

They are serious about both. But less so about Starship. It is pretty clear that NASA views Starship as low probability but super great if it does become a reality - but they cannot (nor should they) bet the farm on it.

But if Starship flies and is ready to provide service to the gateway station before Dragon XL, then I'm sure NASA will be more than happy to amend the contract and change the delivery vehicle. While vehicles are part of the bid, NASA is buying services, not vehicles per-se.

I think SpaceX could have Dragon XL ready pretty soon, I think the gateway itself is the "long pole" there. There is no reason for SpaceX to accelerate Dragon XL development if there is no destination for it, and it looks like it will be years away.

And should Starship become operational before the lunar gateway is operational, then you will see Dragon XL fade away - but not before.

Perhaps, but SpaceX will have to do the work in a good faith effort for Dragon XL.  NASA will need it, and the SS schedule is highly uncertain.  Also, there will be milestone payments on the development and SpaceX will want that revenue.

Perhaps SpaceX's best bet is leverage any development tasks for Dragon that can be applied to SS.  Navigation, radiation hardening, who knows what else.

Exactly. Almost everything that they need to develop for Dragon XL will apply to Starship as well. So it makes sense from SpaceX point of view - as a fallback plan for them as well. Starship is not a certain success, not even close.

[woods170]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Emphasis mine.

Not gonna happen. There is a very severe mass restriction with regards to things that can dock to Gateway "sideways" (as the logistics vehicles will do). It is even mentioned in the original RFP: 14 metric tons.

That rules out Starship by definition.

[DistantTemple]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

[JamesH65]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

Who knows, but it's a torque thing I assume. The torque applied to the docking adapter by the tiniest drift of a Starship would rip it off the gateway, or if not, start moving the gateway around in ways they really don't want.

[ThomasGadd]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

Who knows, but it's a torque thing I assume. The torque applied to the docking adapter by the tiniest drift of a Starship would rip it off the gateway, or if not, start moving the gateway around in ways they really don't want.

I agree with you but this is not a new problem ISS and the shuttle docked.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

Who knows, but it's a torque thing I assume. The torque applied to the docking adapter by the tiniest drift of a Starship would rip it off the gateway, or if not, start moving the gateway around in ways they really don't want.

I agree with you but this is not a new problem ISS and the shuttle docked.

Orbiter with payload was a >100mt item attached to ISS regularly and in the early days actually out massed the complete ISS. Starship would mass around 200mt+ for it's docking with Gateway. It is mainly a matter of torque management. I believe the Orbiter's RCS was active during its stay to trim out the torques. But I could be mistaken. Other visiting vehicles shut down their RCS completely so there is a limit on max mass. Meaning that for Starship to dock with Gateway it's RCS (probably cold gas thrusters) would remain active for trimming out docking clamp torques. For such requirements there are always alternates in engineering.

Now as to how the contract would allow a switch to use of Starship from DXL, the basic contract requirements are the only ones unchangeable. And these are the delivery of x amount of cargo (pressurized/unpressurized) per vehicle visit and capability of up to y number of visits per year. You can exceed these but not be under them. Plus it has to be an advantage to the government for the government to modify the contract. Usually a lower price but could also be more cargo or more often visits.

[woods170]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

Who knows, but it's a torque thing I assume. The torque applied to the docking adapter by the tiniest drift of a Starship would rip it off the gateway, or if not, start moving the gateway around in ways they really don't want.

I agree with you but this is not a new problem ISS and the shuttle docked.

Shuttle docked to ISS on the "long and strong" axis of the station and was almost at the very limit of what could be handled by the ISS structure.

That is not the case with Gateway. The docking port that sits at the end of the long axis of Gateway is reserved for Crew Vehicle dockings (Orion).

The lateral docking ports are for the planned HLS and the logistics vehicles. Docking to those lateral ports comes with rather severe mass restrictions for the docking vehicles, so as to not put too much lateral tension on the in-line docking ports that hold the Gateway elements together.

One such mass restriction was clearly spelled out in the RFP for the Gateway Logistics Services: 14 metric tons at time of first docking.
So, could Starship dock to Gateway? Perhaps it can when it uses the docking port at the end of Gateway. But docking of Starship to one of the lateral docking ports is out of the question.

[wannamoonbase]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

Who knows, but it's a torque thing I assume. The torque applied to the docking adapter by the tiniest drift of a Starship would rip it off the gateway, or if not, start moving the gateway around in ways they really don't want.

I agree with you but this is not a new problem ISS and the shuttle docked.

Shuttle docked to ISS on the "long and strong" axis of the station and was almost at the very limit of what could be handled by the ISS structure.

That is not the case with Gateway. The docking port that sits at the end of the long axis of Gateway is reserved for Crew Vehicle dockings (Orion).

The lateral docking ports are for the planned HLS and the logistics vehicles. Docking to those lateral ports comes with rather severe mass restrictions for the docking vehicles.

One such mass restriction was clearly spelled out in the RFP for the Gateway Logistics Services: 14 metric tons at time of first docking.

So basically you are saying that you can't dock an aircraft carrier to a canoe without problems.

[woods170]

Isn't there going to be a docking port on the nose of the lunar Starship? (in addition to two airlocks for surface ops on the side)

Who knows, but it's a torque thing I assume. The torque applied to the docking adapter by the tiniest drift of a Starship would rip it off the gateway, or if not, start moving the gateway around in ways they really don't want.

I agree with you but this is not a new problem ISS and the shuttle docked.

Shuttle docked to ISS on the "long and strong" axis of the station and was almost at the very limit of what could be handled by the ISS structure.

That is not the case with Gateway. The docking port that sits at the end of the long axis of Gateway is reserved for Crew Vehicle dockings (Orion).

The lateral docking ports are for the planned HLS and the logistics vehicles. Docking to those lateral ports comes with rather severe mass restrictions for the docking vehicles.

One such mass restriction was clearly spelled out in the RFP for the Gateway Logistics Services: 14 metric tons at time of first docking.

So basically you are saying that you can't dock an aircraft carrier to a canoe without problems.

By accident the Dutch navy aircraft carrier Karel Doorman actually did just that off the coast of New Guinea in 1960. The canoe was never seen again...

[Rocket Science]

You could always dock a Dragon with a Dragon XL outfitted with a up-rated propulsion system and perform "eyeballs out" SPS burns... The XL can be refueled and reused repeatedly as an SPS tug for Dragon in conjunction with a Dynetics Lander between the Earth and Moon...

[tbellman]

That is not the case with Gateway. The docking port that sits at the end of the long axis of Gateway is reserved for Crew Vehicle dockings (Orion).

The lateral docking ports are for the planned HLS and the logistics vehicles. Docking to those lateral ports comes with rather severe mass restrictions for the docking vehicles, so as to not put too much lateral tension on the in-line docking ports that hold the Gateway elements together.

One such mass restriction was clearly spelled out in the RFP for the Gateway Logistics Services: 14 metric tons at time of first docking.
So, could Starship dock to Gateway? Perhaps it can when it uses the docking port at the end of Gateway. But docking of Starship to one of the lateral docking ports is out of the question.

So would that mean that Orion has to undock when the crew are going to transfer to an HLS Starship?

The rationale for the mass limit of the Gateway Logistics vehicle seems to be due to the limits of the Gateway's thrusters for station-keeping and other maneuvers, not structural limits of the Gateway, if I understand the following correctly:

An LM upper mass limit of 14 metric tons was used in Gateway Integrated Analysis Cycle 3. A maximum mass constraint for Logistics Modules protects Gateway Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GNC) and Attitude Control System sizing and development.

(Page 17 in the GLS requirements document.)

I skimmed through the requirements documents for HLS (Attachment F), and couldn't find any mass limit for the lander to dock with Gateway, but as I only skimmed them, I can easily have missed it; or there may be relevant information in some of the other documents.  Since NASA didn't reject Starship for HLS, they presumably think any problems with docking to the station are solvable.

Or could it be that one large visiting vehicle docked laterally is OK, but having two docked at the same time would be a problem?

But if it is the Gateway's thrusters that set the limit, one possible workaround would be to have the visiting vehicle provide attitude control.

[clongton]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Emphasis mine.

Not gonna happen. There is a very severe mass restriction with regards to things that can dock to Gateway "sideways" (as the logistics vehicles will do). It is even mentioned in the original RFP: 14 metric tons.

That rules out Starship by definition.

As was said upthread, NASA is purchasing a service, not a launch vehicle. If what Ron emphasized comes to pass what I can see happening is SpaceX modifying Dragon XL to have less delta-v capability and more cargo capacity. Starship delivers XL to cis-lunar space and releases XL from the cargo hold, and XL then proceeds on its own to the gateway station.

That would be a win-win for both NASA and SpaceX. NASA gets a larger cargo delivery from a similarly sized vehicle as the original XL, and SpaceX delivers that cargo for even less cost, because Starship will be less expensive to fly than Falcon Heavy. If SpaceX is successful with its lunar lander proposal, that would be even better because the Starship Lander could be the delivery vehicle, and could then go on to the lunar surface.

[Robotbeat]

Is Dragon XL still a thing now?

Can SpaceX seriously count on having starship tankers, depot, freighter and a starshipish lunar lander by 2024, and yet still consider to develop a dragon for a later contract?

ISTM they are bluffing on one of them, and I hope it's XL.

NASA awarded SpaceX a contract potentially worth $7B for Dragon XL, so I can assure you that Dragon XL is a real thing.

As to Starship, I'm not sure why you think SpaceX can't have multiple products and services that they offer to multiple types of customers? And the profits from the Dragon XL program could help fund Starship development and operations.

That said, if Starship becomes operational and meets the goals Elon Musk has set out for it, then we could see NASA modifying their contract with SpaceX to replace the Dragon XL with Starship. But for now the plan is full speed ahead for Dragon XL.

Emphasis mine.

Not gonna happen. There is a very severe mass restriction with regards to things that can dock to Gateway "sideways" (as the logistics vehicles will do). It is even mentioned in the original RFP: 14 metric tons.

That rules out Starship by definition.

As was said upthread, NASA is purchasing a service, not a launch vehicle. If what Ron emphasized comes to pass what I can see happening is SpaceX modifying Dragon XL to have less delta-v capability and more cargo capacity. Starship delivers XL to cis-lunar space and releases XL from the cargo hold, and XL then proceeds on its own to the gateway station.

That would be a win-win for both NASA and SpaceX. NASA gets a larger cargo delivery from a similarly sized vehicle as the original XL, and SpaceX delivers that cargo for even less cost, because Starship will be less expensive to fly than Falcon Heavy. If SpaceX is successful with its lunar lander proposal, that would be even better because the Starship Lander could be the delivery vehicle, and could then go on to the lunar surface.

Yup, and going one step further, SpaceX could recover Dragon XL and bring it back to Earth in Starship for reprovisioning.

Doing Dragon XL is pretty low risk for SpaceX. They're not going to lose money on the contract, and they can improve it over time by possibly eventually launching it (and recovering it) via Starship fully reusably.

It's questionable that Gateway would need more than a Dragon XL's worth of cargo at a time anyway.

[wannamoonbase]

Yup, and going one step further, SpaceX could recover Dragon XL and bring it back to Earth in Starship for reprovisioning.

Doing Dragon XL is pretty low risk for SpaceX. They're not going to lose money on the contract, and they can improve it over time by possibly eventually launching it (and recovering it) via Starship fully reusably.

It's questionable that Gateway would need more than a Dragon XL's worth of cargo at a time anyway.

Go one crazy step further, refuel and restock on orbit with SS and send it back out on TLI. 

Save the Delta V.

[Robotbeat]

Yup, and going one step further, SpaceX could recover Dragon XL and bring it back to Earth in Starship for reprovisioning.

Doing Dragon XL is pretty low risk for SpaceX. They're not going to lose money on the contract, and they can improve it over time by possibly eventually launching it (and recovering it) via Starship fully reusably.

It's questionable that Gateway would need more than a Dragon XL's worth of cargo at a time anyway.

Go one crazy step further, refuel and restock on orbit with SS and send it back out on TLI. 

Save the Delta V.

You're not really buying anything significant there.