Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Glonass-M blok S9 - Plesetsk 43/3 - 28 Nov 2022 (15:17 UTC) (Read 20180 times)

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #20 on:** 11/19/2022 06:45 pm »

Cross-post:

Quote from: russianhalo117 on 11/19/2022 06:14 pm

Per Anatoly Zak's sources:
http://russianspaceweb.com/2022.html

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Planned Russian space launches in 2022:

November 27 [17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time]: A Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat rocket to launch the GLONASS-M No. 61 satellite from Pad 3 at Site 43 in Plesetsk.

[zubenelgenubi: Threads merged, ~~provisionally~~. Please read Bart's post immediately before this one.]

GWR64 · « **Reply #21 on:** 11/19/2022 07:50 pm »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 11/19/2022 03:38 pm

Quote from: Alter Sachse on 11/19/2022 11:02 am
15:00 to 17:30 is UTC ?

The times in the NOTAMs are usually UTC, but impact zone announcements for the first and second stages published in the Russian press in recent days give the window as 17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time, which corresponds to 14:00-16:30 UTC. The primary launch date is November 27, with November 28, 29 and 30 as back-up dates.

The impact zones will be in the Komi republic (1st stage) and the Tyumen region (2nd stage). These are for launches into 63-64° inclination orbits and are used not only by Glonass, but also by Tundra and Meridian. However, the coordinates given for the third stage impact zone in the Pacific are unique to Glonass, so that would still seem to be the payload. It is still unclear though which Glonass is going up. There is conflicting information on the whereabouts of Glonass-M nr. 61L. There appears to have been a report (now removed) on the ISS Reshetnev website that the satellite had been shipped to Plesetsk, but an ISS Reshetnev insider on the NK forum claims it is still at the factory. Best guess right now is Glonass-K2 nr. 13L, but awaiting further information.

There is actually no window for Glonass launches, but an exact launch time.
I believe there are always 2 launch days, on the first day the satellite would be deployed in front of the target operation point, on the 2nd day behind it. The flight profile is relatively inflexible.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #22 on:** 11/19/2022 11:16 pm »

This launch is turning into a bit of a mystery. Two things suggest this may not be a Glonass. First, posts from the ISS Reshetnev insider on the NK forum seem to suggest both Glonass-M nr. 61 and Glonass K2 nr. 13 are still at the factory, in which case neither would be ready to fly on the 27th. Second, as pointed out here by GWR64, the three back-up days are unusual for a Glonass launch (only one back-up day was given for earlier Glonass launches). According to information posted on NK, there is a Glonass launch opportunity on November 27 around 15.30-15.40 UTC that would result in the satellite occupying slot 16. There would be another opportunity within the announced window the following day, but after that it would make more sense to wait for a week. If launched on the 2nd or 3rd back-up day, the satellite would need about a month to drift to its final slot.

On the other hand, the announced impact zone of the third stage in the Pacific is identical to that of earlier Glonass launches and different from that for Meridian and Tundra, the other two satellites flying into this kind of inclination. This is still the strongest argument in favor of a Glonass launch.

Note that the windows given in the NOTAMs and the impact zone announcements do not correspond to the "real" launch windows. They have more margin built into them to make sure that people stay clear of the impact zones.

Quote

Quote from: russianhalo117 on Today at 06:14 pm
Per Anatoly Zak's sources:
http://russianspaceweb.com/2022.html

Quote
Planned Russian space launches in 2022:

November 27 [17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time]: A Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat rocket to launch the GLONASS-M No. 61 satellite from Pad 3 at Site 43 in Plesetsk.

Question is if this is from his own sources or based on earlier NK information.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #23 on:** 11/20/2022 09:50 am »

If Glonass M and Glonass K2 are still in the factory, why should it not be a Glonass K ?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #24 on:** 11/21/2022 09:36 am »

The latest news from the ISS Reshetnev insider is now that the payload will be Glonass-M nr. 61L after all (so his earlier information that it is still in the factory appears to have been erroneous). The next Glonass-K (nr. 18L) is still undergoing final assembly.

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #25 on:** 11/26/2022 12:23 am »

If the launch is successful, the satellite will be designated Kosmos 2564.

Satori · « **Reply #26 on:** 11/27/2022 03:15 pm »

Nothing yet? Possibly delayed?

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #27 on:** 11/27/2022 03:30 pm »

Quote from: Satori on 11/27/2022 03:15 pm

Nothing yet? Possibly delayed?

Since the insider is no longer writing (Not allowed to write ?)
it can take hours until an official message appears.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #28 on:** 11/27/2022 05:59 pm »

NK: postponed

zubenelgenubi · « **Reply #29 on:** 11/28/2022 12:07 am »

If launch is tomorrow, November 28, how much earlier or later will the time of day of launch be?

(Z = Zulu = UTC. 15:00 UTC = the opening of the daily NOTAM window. I had to edit the title to fit the character limit.)

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #30 on:** 11/28/2022 08:42 am »

Quote from: zubenelgenubi on 11/28/2022 12:07 am

If launch is tomorrow, November 28, how much earlier or later will the time of day of launch be?

(Z = Zulu = UTC. 15:00 UTC = the opening of the daily NOTAM window. I had to edit the title to fit the character limit.)

Four minutes earlier than yesterday according to a poster on the NK forum. I understand that is not inside information, but based on the assumption that this is a Glonass going to slot 16. Anyway, the overall launch window (15.00-17.30 UTC) has not changed according to a new NOTAM put out for today's launch attempt.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #31 on:** 11/28/2022 02:38 pm »

The launch occurred at 15:17 UTC

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #32 on:** 11/28/2022 02:40 pm »

Soyuz-2.1b rocket with a military satellite launched from Plesetsk Cosmodrome
MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Russia's Aerospace Forces (VKS) has launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket with a spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The defense ministry told reporters on Monday.

"On Monday, November 28, at 18:17 Moscow time, a medium-class Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a spacecraft (SC) was launched from the State Test Site of the Russian Defense Ministry (Plesetsk Cosmodrome) in the Arkhangelsk Region by combat crews of the Space Forces of the Air Force," the ministry said.

The previous launch of a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk was on November 2. At that time, a spacecraft was also launched in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry.

Conexion Espacial · « **Reply #33 on:** 11/28/2022 02:53 pm »

Video from a camera that captured the launch
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx6Fr-_Mh1Ye1EHEpAXtM7Ihu31P44noYM

Rondaz · « **Reply #34 on:** 11/28/2022 03:22 pm »

I have forgotten to even report the 1 day scrub of what should be the GLONASS launch, but it did just lifted off at 15:17 UTC:

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1597257663565672454

Rondaz · « **Reply #35 on:** 11/28/2022 03:26 pm »

Russian Soyuz-2.1b rocket with military satellite blasts off from Plesetsk spaceport.

A Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket was last launched from the Plesetsk space center on November 2, also orbiting a military satellite.

28 NOV, 07:52

MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. The Russian Aerospace Forces launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a military satellite from the Plesetsk spaceport, the Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

"At 6:17 p.m. Moscow time on Monday, November 28, combat teams of the Aerospace Forces’ Space Troops launched a Soyuz-2.1b medium-class carrier rocket with a space vehicle for the Defense Ministry of Russia from the Defense Ministry’s State Testing Cosmodrome (the Plesetsk spaceport) in the Arkhangelsk Region," the ministry said in a statement.

A Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket was last launched from the Plesetsk space center on November 2, also orbiting a military satellite.

https://tass.com/science/1542865

Rondaz · « **Reply #36 on:** 11/28/2022 03:28 pm »

This is apparently the Soyuz-2 in the air:

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1597258154063953922

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #37 on:** 11/28/2022 03:42 pm »

twitter.com/russianspaceweb/status/1597266495532564480

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The official announcement about this launch did not contain a usual confirmation that ground assets began tracking the ascending vehicle around two minutes after the liftoff.

https://twitter.com/russianspaceweb/status/1597267941615362051

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Following military launches, Russian official media normally also issue a second communique soon after the mission reaches an initial orbit confirming that fact, but looks like not in this case...

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #38 on:** 11/28/2022 04:28 pm »

https://twitter.com/MichaelAshura/status/1597272016541057024?cxt=HHwWgIDQufab06osAAAA

is this really a recent video ?
But that would be LC 43/4.

input~2 · « **Reply #39 on:** 11/28/2022 05:51 pm »

The Russian Aerospace Forces launched the Soyuz-2.1b launch vehicle from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome