Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Glonass-M blok S9 - Plesetsk 43/3 - 28 Nov 2022 (15:17 UTC)  (Read 20184 times)

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post re: final Glonass-M launch:
https://twitter.com/anik1982space/status/1230887405433106434
Google translate:
Quote
Interesting news from the insurance conference: 1. This year, 3 launches of Glonass satellites: M No. 60 in March, K No. 15 in the 2nd quarter, K No. 16 at the end of the year. M No. 61 for operational necessity;

This should be satellite No. 61, launching from Plesetsk, either LC 43/4 or 43/3.

And, if launch is successful, the satellite will receive a Kosmos designation.
***

Are there any deductions that can be made regarding the intended orbital slot of the final Glonass-M satellite?
« Last Edit: 11/29/2022 10:35 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post; my bold:
Seeking correction, please

Testoyedov from Reshetnyov has told about his ten satellites: two launched - Meridian-M and Glonass-M, two at Baikonur - Ekspress-80/103, six at storage or in produce - two Glonass-K, one Glonass-M, three Gonets-M.
« Last Edit: 04/12/2020 11:23 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post; my bold:
https://www.iss-reshetnev.ru/media/newspaper/newspaper-2020/newspaper-505.pdf
Google translate:
Quote
... says CEO Nikolay Testoedov
...
ABOUT GLONASS SYSTEM
Next year the launches will be carried out on an operational basis, but two Glonass-K will definitely be launched, the second of which has a larger number of navigation signals, that is, this is an evolutionary development of the satellite. The launch of "Glonass-K2" is planned, and I am almost sure that the launch of the last "Glonass-M" will take place, because the resource of its ground storage will end by that time. Thus, approximately next year we have to launch four vehicles ...
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post; my bold:
https://ria.ru/20210124/glonass-1594331273.html
Google translate:
Quote
"This year, it is planned to launch five satellites: the last Glonass-M - within a year, two Glonass-K - in the second and third quarters, two Glonass-K2 - in the third and fourth quarters," the source said. agencies.
« Last Edit: 01/24/2021 01:27 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Rogozin's recent statement: Why not proceed with this launch?  The satellite has already been assembled.
« Last Edit: 06/19/2021 08:53 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: Rogozin's recent statement: Why not proceed with this launch?  The satellite has already been assembled.

Cross-post; my bold:
https://ria.ru/20210618/glonass-1737502928.html
google translate:
Quote
The source spoke about plans to expand the GLONASS system in 2021
03:31 18.06.2021


The source told about the expected replenishment of the orbital group of the GLONASS system in 2021

MOSCOW, June 18 - RIA Novosti. The orbital grouping of the Russian global navigation system GLONASS will be replenished with two or four satellites in 2021, a source in the rocket and space industry told RIA Novosti.
"They are preparing to launch (in 2021) from two to four devices," the source said.
<snip>
The source did not rule out that the next satellite, which will be launched into space, will be the last "Glonass-M" with number 61.
<snip>
« Last Edit: 06/19/2021 08:58 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Any "new news"?
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Wow.  Not even the last Glonass-M?
Any indications of progress [towards the next Glonass-K launch]?
according to launch calendar in NK forum no Glonass launch in 2021.
« Last Edit: 10/13/2021 09:55 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Wow.  Not even the last Glonass-M?
Any indications of progress [towards the next Glonass-K launch]?
according to launch calendar in NK forum no Glonass launch in 2021.

Yes, not even the last Glonass-M
See GWR64's post regarding his observations disputing the interviewee's claim that Glonass is a fully operational system.
Cross-post; my bold italics:
From the interview with Nikolay Testoedov from ISS Reshetnev at RIA Novosti.
https://ria.ru/20211008/testoedov-1753516458.html  [dated October 8]
Google translate:
Quote
<snip>
- The last GLONASS satellite of the previous generation, Glonass-M, has not been launched into orbit, which this year is ending its ground storage period.

- We have extended the storage period until the end of this year and will extend, if necessary, until the middle of next [year, 2022]. Considering that our similar devices are guaranteed to work for one and a half terms, we are absolutely sure that this device will also work after the launch of the warranty period of seven years.
<snip>
« Last Edit: 10/16/2021 10:39 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
https://ria.ru/20211220/glonass-1764483094.html
The current plan is to launch the first Glonass-K2 satellite in the second quarter of 2022 followed by the second Glonass-K2 satellite in the following quarter. It was also added that the final Glonass-M satellite currently in reserve will most likely be launched in the first quarter.
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Online Josh_from_Canada

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Satellite is being taken out of storage and being readied for a launch in March 2022.
https://tass.ru/kosmos/13330673
Launches Seen: Atlas V OA-7, Falcon 9 Starlink 6-4, Falcon 9 CRS-28,

Offline GWR64

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Satellite is being taken out of storage and being readied for a launch in March 2022.
https://tass.ru/kosmos/13330673

Most likely this last Glonass-M satellite is supposed to replace the Glonass M 736 on slot 16.
It has not been in operation for over two weeks.
Glonass-M 736 was in operation for more than 11 years. The first half of that time on slot 9.
Early 2016, he was moved to slot 16 to replace the defective 738.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Satellite is being taken out of storage and being readied for a launch in March 2022.
https://tass.ru/kosmos/13330673
Quote
"At the moment, the last of the ground reserve, the Glonass-M satellite, has been removed from storage. Technologically, it will be ready for launch from mid-March," the agency's source said.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Will this launch proceed in the near future?

Given recent developments, the first indication of imminent launch could be the NOTAMs and/or NOTMARs.
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Any new news?
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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Will this launch proceed in the near future?
Any new news?

The primary source of information for this actually is another forum:
https://www.skyscrapercity.com/threads/Космические-технологии.1045319/page-1167
(see post 23,330 on May 19 and following ones)

Other dates given: 
-Glonass-K N°16 (Plesetsk): August 2022
-Glonass-M N°61, Glonass-K N°17, Glonass-K2 N°13 (Plesetsk): 3rd quarter of 2022
-Luna-25: 22 August 2022 (but will likely be delayed)
-Ionosfera-1 and 2 (Vostochny): March 2023
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Offline owais.usmani

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Re: Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat - Glonass-M blok S9 - Plesetsk 43/X - TBD
« Reply #16 on: 11/02/2022 05:44 pm »
Satellite is being taken out of storage and being readied for a launch in March 2022.
https://tass.ru/kosmos/13330673

Almost an year has passed since this satellite was taken out of storage. Why they do not launch it already? Or has the satellite's warranty period expired? Are they going to discard this last M version unit?
« Last Edit: 11/02/2022 05:53 pm by zubenelgenubi »

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Quote
F3698/22 NOTAMN
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/6224S16254E040
A) YMMM
B) 2211271500 C) 2211301730
D) DAILY 1500/1730
E) ROCKET LAUNCH FROM RUSSIA WILL TAKE PLACE
FLW RECEIVED FROM GOVERNMENT OF RUSSIA: THE RUSSIAN AEROSPACE FORCES
PLAN TO LAUNCH MISSILE AND TO SINK ITS FRAGMENTS IN THE WATERS OF THE
OCEAN.
CHARACTERISTICS OF IMPACT AREA:
621200S 1630000E
624020S 1630000E
623300S 1623336E
621200S 1630000E
F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 15 Nov 2022 19:25:00
SOURCE: YBBBZEZX

NOTAM for a Russian space launch between November 27 and November 30. This is for the impact of the third stage in the Pacific. The coordinates are very similar to those for Glonass launches. If this is indeed for a Glonass, it is not quite clear for which one. Glonass-K2 nr. 13L was supposed to fly before the end of the year, but was still undergoing final tests at ISS Reshetnev in late October, so the question is if it could have been shipped to Plesetsk and readied for launch since then. Another possible candidate is Glonass-M nr. 61L.




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15:00 to 17:30 is UTC ?
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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15:00 to 17:30 is UTC ?

The times in the NOTAMs are usually UTC, but impact zone announcements for the first and second stages published in the Russian press in recent days give the window as 17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time, which corresponds to 14:00-16:30 UTC. The primary launch date is November 27, with November 28, 29 and 30 as back-up dates.

The impact zones will be in the Komi republic (1st stage) and the Tyumen region (2nd stage). These are for launches into 63-64° inclination orbits and are used not only by Glonass, but also by Tundra and Meridian. However, the coordinates given for the third stage impact zone in the Pacific are unique to Glonass, so that would still seem to be the payload. It is still unclear though which Glonass is going up. There is conflicting information on the whereabouts of Glonass-M nr. 61L. There appears to have been a report (now removed) on the ISS Reshetnev website that the satellite had been shipped to Plesetsk, but an ISS Reshetnev insider on the NK forum claims it is still at the factory. Best guess right now is Glonass-K2 nr. 13L, but awaiting further information.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Cross-post:
Per Anatoly Zak's sources:
http://russianspaceweb.com/2022.html

Quote
Planned Russian space launches in 2022:

November 27 [17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time]: A Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat rocket to launch the GLONASS-M No. 61 satellite from Pad 3 at Site 43 in Plesetsk.

[zubenelgenubi: Threads merged, provisionally.  Please read Bart's post immediately before this one.]
« Last Edit: 11/23/2022 03:14 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline GWR64

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15:00 to 17:30 is UTC ?

The times in the NOTAMs are usually UTC, but impact zone announcements for the first and second stages published in the Russian press in recent days give the window as 17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time, which corresponds to 14:00-16:30 UTC. The primary launch date is November 27, with November 28, 29 and 30 as back-up dates.

The impact zones will be in the Komi republic (1st stage) and the Tyumen region (2nd stage). These are for launches into 63-64° inclination orbits and are used not only by Glonass, but also by Tundra and Meridian. However, the coordinates given for the third stage impact zone in the Pacific are unique to Glonass, so that would still seem to be the payload. It is still unclear though which Glonass is going up. There is conflicting information on the whereabouts of Glonass-M nr. 61L. There appears to have been a report (now removed) on the ISS Reshetnev website that the satellite had been shipped to Plesetsk, but an ISS Reshetnev insider on the NK forum claims it is still at the factory. Best guess right now is Glonass-K2 nr. 13L, but awaiting further information.
There is actually no window for Glonass launches, but an exact launch time.
I believe there are always 2 launch days, on the first day the satellite would be deployed in front of the target operation point, on the 2nd day behind it. The flight profile is relatively inflexible.
« Last Edit: 11/19/2022 07:52 pm by GWR64 »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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This launch is turning into a bit of a mystery. Two things suggest this may not be a Glonass. First, posts from the ISS Reshetnev insider on the NK forum seem to suggest both Glonass-M nr. 61 and Glonass K2 nr. 13 are still at the factory, in which case neither would be ready to fly on the 27th. Second, as pointed out here by GWR64, the three back-up days are unusual for a Glonass launch (only one back-up day was given for earlier Glonass launches). According to information posted on NK, there is a Glonass launch opportunity on November 27 around 15.30-15.40 UTC that would result in the satellite occupying slot 16. There would be another opportunity within the announced window the following day, but after that it would make more sense to wait for a week. If launched on the 2nd or 3rd back-up day, the satellite would need about a month to drift to its final slot.

On the other hand, the announced impact zone of the third stage in the Pacific is identical to that of earlier Glonass launches and different from that for Meridian and Tundra, the other two satellites flying into this kind of inclination. This is still the strongest argument in favor of a Glonass launch.

Note that the windows given in the NOTAMs and the impact zone announcements do not correspond to the "real" launch windows. They have more margin built into them to make sure that people stay clear of the impact zones.

Quote
Quote from: russianhalo117 on Today at 06:14 pm
Per Anatoly Zak's sources:
http://russianspaceweb.com/2022.html

Quote
Planned Russian space launches in 2022:

November 27 [17:00 to 19:30 Moscow time]: A Soyuz-2-1b/Fregat rocket to launch the GLONASS-M No. 61 satellite from Pad 3 at Site 43 in Plesetsk.

Question is if this is from his own sources or based on earlier NK information.

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If Glonass M and Glonass K2 are still in the factory, why should it not be a Glonass K ?
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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The latest news from the ISS Reshetnev insider is now that the payload will be Glonass-M nr. 61L after all (so his earlier information that it is still in the factory appears to have been erroneous). The next Glonass-K (nr. 18L) is still undergoing final assembly.

Offline zubenelgenubi

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If the launch is successful, the satellite will be designated Kosmos 2564.
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Nothing yet? Possibly delayed?

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Nothing yet? Possibly delayed?
Since the insider is no longer writing (Not allowed to write ?)
it can take hours until an official message appears.
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NK: postponed
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Offline zubenelgenubi

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If launch is tomorrow, November 28, how much earlier or later will the time of day of launch be?

(Z = Zulu = UTC.  15:00 UTC = the opening of the daily NOTAM window.  I had to edit the title to fit the character limit.)
« Last Edit: 11/28/2022 12:50 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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If launch is tomorrow, November 28, how much earlier or later will the time of day of launch be?

(Z = Zulu = UTC.  15:00 UTC = the opening of the daily NOTAM window.  I had to edit the title to fit the character limit.)

Four minutes earlier than yesterday according to a poster on the NK forum. I understand that is not inside information, but based on the assumption that this is a Glonass going to slot 16. Anyway, the overall launch window (15.00-17.30 UTC) has not changed according to a new NOTAM put out for today's launch attempt.


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The launch occurred at 15:17 UTC
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Soyuz-2.1b rocket with a military satellite launched from Plesetsk Cosmodrome
MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Russia's Aerospace Forces (VKS) has launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket with a spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The defense ministry told reporters on Monday.

"On Monday, November 28, at 18:17 Moscow time, a medium-class Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a spacecraft (SC) was launched from the State Test Site of the Russian Defense Ministry (Plesetsk Cosmodrome) in the Arkhangelsk Region by combat crews of the Space Forces of the Air Force," the ministry said.

The previous launch of a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk was on November 2. At that time, a spacecraft was also launched in the interests of the Russian Defense Ministry.
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« Last Edit: 11/28/2022 02:54 pm by Conexion Espacial »
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I have forgotten to even report the 1 day scrub of what should be the GLONASS launch, but it did just lifted off at 15:17 UTC:

https://twitter.com/Cosmic_Penguin/status/1597257663565672454

Offline Rondaz

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Russian Soyuz-2.1b rocket with military satellite blasts off from Plesetsk spaceport.

A Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket was last launched from the Plesetsk space center on November 2, also orbiting a military satellite.

28 NOV, 07:52

MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. The Russian Aerospace Forces launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a military satellite from the Plesetsk spaceport, the Defense Ministry reported on Monday.

"At 6:17 p.m. Moscow time on Monday, November 28, combat teams of the Aerospace Forces’ Space Troops launched a Soyuz-2.1b medium-class carrier rocket with a space vehicle for the Defense Ministry of Russia from the Defense Ministry’s State Testing Cosmodrome (the Plesetsk spaceport) in the Arkhangelsk Region," the ministry said in a statement.

A Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket was last launched from the Plesetsk space center on November 2, also orbiting a military satellite.

https://tass.com/science/1542865

Offline Rondaz

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twitter.com/russianspaceweb/status/1597266495532564480

Quote
The official announcement about this launch did not contain a usual confirmation that ground assets began tracking the ascending vehicle around two minutes after the liftoff.

https://twitter.com/russianspaceweb/status/1597267941615362051

Quote
Following military launches, Russian official media normally also issue a second communique soon after the mission reaches an initial orbit confirming that fact, but looks like not in this case...

Online Alter Sachse

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One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
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Offline input~2

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Offline Nicolas PILLET

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Nicolas PILLET
Kosmonavtika : The French site on Russian Space

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https://tass.ru/kosmos/16446795

Google translation:

The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the launch of the Soyuz-2.1b rocket and the launch of the spacecraft into the calculated orbit took place in the normal mode.

MOSCOW, 28 November. /TASS/. The spacecraft in the interests of the Russian Ministry of Defense, launched earlier from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, was launched into orbit. This was reported to journalists on Monday at the Russian Defense Ministry.

The department noted that the launch of the Soyuz-2.1b rocket and the launch of the spacecraft into the calculated orbit took place in the normal mode. After the launch, the means of the ground-based automated control complex of the G. S. Titov Main Test Space Center took Soyuz-2.1b for escort.

"At the estimated time, the spacecraft was launched into the target orbit by the Fregat upper stage and accepted for control of ground facilities of the Space Forces of the Aerospace Forces," the ministry said.

The satellite was assigned the serial number "Cosmos-2564". A stable telemetry connection has been established and maintained with it. "The onboard systems of the spacecraft are functioning normally," the Russian Defense Ministry stressed.

Information about the spacecraft was entered by officers of the Main Space Intelligence Center of the Space Forces of the Aerospace Forces into the Main Catalog of Space Objects of the Russian Space Control System after it was put into orbit.

Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a spacecraft in the interests of the Defense Ministry from the Plesetsk cosmodrome at 18:17 Moscow time.
« Last Edit: 11/28/2022 06:18 pm by Satori »

Online Alter Sachse

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Now we have to wait for the orbital elements to see what was launched today...
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
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Launch images from NK forum...

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If the photos are indeed from today's launch, so the middle patch looks like the GLONASS one.

Online Alter Sachse

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If the photos are indeed from today's launch, so the middle patch looks like the GLONASS one.
Photos can be from today.
Unlike the video (#38), it is dark in the photos.

...and it is 43/3
« Last Edit: 11/28/2022 07:11 pm by Alter Sachse »
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Offline Nicolas PILLET

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No, it is standard Space Forces patch.
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No, it is standard Space Forces patch.

Thanks for the clarification.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Now we have to wait for the orbital elements to see what was launched today...

Little doubt now that this is the final Glonass-M. The only novelty is that it was not officially announced as a Glonass in the Ministry of Defense press releases, even though this is a dual military-civilian satellite. Presumably part of some new policy to further restrict the amount of information released on military launches.

Some video of the launch is here:
https://rutube.ru/video/d6527e0e30a43b6e26c6b5f8c7e103a4/

Offline Vahe231991

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Now we have to wait for the orbital elements to see what was launched today...

Little doubt now that this is the final Glonass-M. The only novelty is that it was not officially announced as a Glonass in the Ministry of Defense press releases, even though this is a dual military-civilian satellite. Presumably part of some new policy to further restrict the amount of information released on military launches.

Some video of the launch is here:
https://rutube.ru/video/d6527e0e30a43b6e26c6b5f8c7e103a4/
Confirmation of launch success as per Anatoly Zak:
Quote
The official announcement from the Russian Ministry of Defense issued several hours after liftoff on November 28 said that ground control had established and maintained reliable telemetry communications with the satellite and all its systems functioned nominally.

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1597362302126559233

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CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2022-161) of COSMOS 2564 atop a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Nov 28 at 1517 UTC: tass.com/science/1542953.

Offline Rondaz

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Today, Russia launched a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk carrying what is believed to be the last GLONASS-M satellite, completing the country's satellite navigation constellation.

https://twitter.com/TGMetsFan98/status/1597383918520795137
« Last Edit: 11/29/2022 10:32 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Rondaz

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Orbital Launch no.166 of 2022

Glonass-M 61L | Russian Space Forces | Nov 28 | 1517 UTC

Russian Space Forces to launch Glonass-M №61L, one of its final navigation satellites in the #GlonassM group, on its #Soyuz 2.1b / Fregat-M launch vehicle from #Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

https://twitter.com/SpaceIntellige3/status/1597329258611081217

Online Alter Sachse

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15:13:50
One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
        Jeff Lynne - "21century man"

Online Alter Sachse

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One day you're a hero  next day you're a clown  there's nothing that is in between
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https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1597470001807912960

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There was a launch from #Plesetsk yesterday at 15:17 UTC. Soyuz 2.1b launched a satellite naked Kosmos-2564, which, according to Novosti Kosmonavtiki, should be Glonass-M No 61.

Offline Rondaz

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Russian defense ministry’s satellite put into designated orbit.

According to the ministry, the launch of the Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with the satellite was carried out routinely.

28 NOV, 11:37 Updated at: 11:49

MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. A Russian defense ministry satellite that was launched from the Plesetsk spaceport has been put into orbit, the Russian defense ministry said on Monday.

According to the ministry, the launch of the Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with the satellite was carried out routinely.

"The spacecraft was put into its designated orbit by the Fregat booster at the scheduled time and was taken under the control of the Russian aerospace forces’ ground facilities," it said.

The satellite was designated identification number Cosmos-2564. "The satellite’s onboard systems are operating routinely," the ministry said.

The Russian defense ministry said earlier that Russia’s aerospace forces had launched a Soyuz-2.1b carrier rocket with a satellite in the ministry’s interests from the Plesetsk spaceport at 6:17 p.m. Moscow time.

https://tass.com/science/1542953

Offline Rondaz

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Russian Space forces launched its #Glonass-M №61L on its #Soyuz 2.1b / Fregat-M launch vehicle at #Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
The insertion of the spacecraft into the target orbit went smoothly, the satellite was assigned a serial number "#Cosmos-2564".

https://twitter.com/nkknspace/status/1597529497867210753

Offline Rondaz

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Recent launch of #GLONASS-M №61L mission via #VKS' #Soyuz2 vehicle

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1597471574579621888

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Official confirmation that yesterday's launch carried Glonass-M nr. 61: it is now listed as Glonass 761 in an overview of the constellation on the website of the Glonass User Center. The satellite is drifting to slot 16 and its status is given as "being integrated into the system".
https://www.glonass-iac.ru/glonass/sostavOG/

Offline GWR64

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1597362302126559233

Quote
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2022-161) of COSMOS 2564 atop a Soyuz-2.1b rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Nov 28 at 1517 UTC: tass.com/science/1542953.

engine ignited, orbital period shortened to catch slot 16
source: Celestrak

(objects A and B have since been swapped)

« Last Edit: 12/02/2022 06:36 pm by GWR64 »

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