Quote from: ncb1397 on 07/13/2020 05:08 pmTesla has risen another 10% today (normal trading hours aren't over though) putting market capitalization at the combined value of the next 3 biggest market capitilization automakers - Honda, Volkswagen Group and Toyota. The combined auto sales of all 3 brands is about 60 to 70 times Tesla's 2019 number. Or to look at it another way, Tesla vehicle sales last year were comparable to Volkswagen's Porsche unit - one of their smaller units. So, what is driving this? There are a few possibilities that creates positive feedback loops.For those that are still thinking of Tesla as just a car company are missing 80% of the picture. Tesla is also an energy company. The PV and stationary storage part of the company is going to be at least as big and probably more profitable than the auto side.I just keep buying more stock. There will be ups and downs but it will be a multi trillion dollar company in 10 years.If SpaceX needs funds, which may not be a problem with Starlink, that it would be a small matter of Elon selling TSLA to put more money in SpaceX.It's taken almost 20 years for Tesla and SpaceX to get the momentum and funds they have now. This is fun to watch.
Tesla has risen another 10% today (normal trading hours aren't over though) putting market capitalization at the combined value of the next 3 biggest market capitilization automakers - Honda, Volkswagen Group and Toyota. The combined auto sales of all 3 brands is about 60 to 70 times Tesla's 2019 number. Or to look at it another way, Tesla vehicle sales last year were comparable to Volkswagen's Porsche unit - one of their smaller units. So, what is driving this? There are a few possibilities that creates positive feedback loops.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 07/13/2020 05:35 pmQuote from: ncb1397 on 07/13/2020 05:08 pmTesla has risen another 10% today (normal trading hours aren't over though) putting market capitalization at the combined value of the next 3 biggest market capitilization automakers - Honda, Volkswagen Group and Toyota. The combined auto sales of all 3 brands is about 60 to 70 times Tesla's 2019 number. Or to look at it another way, Tesla vehicle sales last year were comparable to Volkswagen's Porsche unit - one of their smaller units. So, what is driving this? There are a few possibilities that creates positive feedback loops.For those that are still thinking of Tesla as just a car company are missing 80% of the picture. Tesla is also an energy company. The PV and stationary storage part of the company is going to be at least as big and probably more profitable than the auto side.I just keep buying more stock. There will be ups and downs but it will be a multi trillion dollar company in 10 years.If SpaceX needs funds, which may not be a problem with Starlink, that it would be a small matter of Elon selling TSLA to put more money in SpaceX.It's taken almost 20 years for Tesla and SpaceX to get the momentum and funds they have now. This is fun to watch.Elon tweeted not long ago that Tesla is like a dozen tech startups. I'm not sure what they all are but I'd like to see a breakdown at the earnings call if someone asks.
Quote from: DigitalMan on 07/13/2020 05:43 pmQuote from: wannamoonbase on 07/13/2020 05:35 pmQuote from: ncb1397 on 07/13/2020 05:08 pmTesla has risen another 10% today (normal trading hours aren't over though) putting market capitalization at the combined value of the next 3 biggest market capitilization automakers - Honda, Volkswagen Group and Toyota. The combined auto sales of all 3 brands is about 60 to 70 times Tesla's 2019 number. Or to look at it another way, Tesla vehicle sales last year were comparable to Volkswagen's Porsche unit - one of their smaller units. So, what is driving this? There are a few possibilities that creates positive feedback loops.For those that are still thinking of Tesla as just a car company are missing 80% of the picture. Tesla is also an energy company. The PV and stationary storage part of the company is going to be at least as big and probably more profitable than the auto side.I just keep buying more stock. There will be ups and downs but it will be a multi trillion dollar company in 10 years.If SpaceX needs funds, which may not be a problem with Starlink, that it would be a small matter of Elon selling TSLA to put more money in SpaceX.It's taken almost 20 years for Tesla and SpaceX to get the momentum and funds they have now. This is fun to watch.Elon tweeted not long ago that Tesla is like a dozen tech startups. I'm not sure what they all are but I'd like to see a breakdown at the earnings call if someone asks.It's not in the earnings yet. The cars are just funding and enabling other technologies. There are at least 5 things they can do with cars and energy that when tied into an ecosystem will be like the iPhone but for global energy.I'm betting a significant part of my retirement savings that Elon will be worth hundreds of billions in 10 years. Maybe a half trillion.
>Elon tweeted not long ago that Tesla is like a dozen tech startups. I'm not sure what they all are but I'd like to see a breakdown at the earnings call if someone asks.
Quote from: DigitalMan on 07/13/2020 05:43 pm>Elon tweeted not long ago that Tesla is like a dozen tech startups. I'm not sure what they all are but I'd like to see a breakdown at the earnings call if someone asks.This. As an example that came out of left field; Tesla is working with German pharma company CureVac (possibly others) on an mRNA (messenger RNA) bioreactor for creating therapeutic nucleic acids, a new class of drugs. Ex: mRNA sequences which encode antigens for use as vaccines. The work is being done by Tesla Grohmann. A "side project."Patent: https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020002598
Quote from: docmordrid on 07/14/2020 03:15 amQuote from: DigitalMan on 07/13/2020 05:43 pm>Elon tweeted not long ago that Tesla is like a dozen tech startups. I'm not sure what they all are but I'd like to see a breakdown at the earnings call if someone asks.This. As an example that came out of left field; Tesla is working with German pharma company CureVac (possibly others) on an mRNA (messenger RNA) bioreactor for creating therapeutic nucleic acids, a new class of drugs. Ex: mRNA sequences which encode antigens for use as vaccines. The work is being done by Tesla Grohmann. A "side project."Patent: https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2020002598The thing that interested me when I heard about this (only last week!) was seeing the date on the patent, before the pandemic.
The energy storage business is largely limited by battery supply - which has been struggling to keep up with the vehicle demand, so most of the battery production had gone into the cars.Power storage is the transformative technology that will make renewable energy take off. Because it removes the reliability challenge. Consider having enough mega-powerpacks to supply the entire United States with electricity. That means you can go full renewable as an energy source. How many gigafactories worth of battery production will that require? Imagine the sales revenue potential just from that.
Grid storage is dominated currently by pumped hydroelectric power. It is far cheaper as well. For instance, the Bath County Pumped Storage Station has 24 GWh of capacity and cost $3.82 billion to construct or a cost of $159 per kwh (adjusted for inflation). The Hornsdale Power Reserve tesla battery on the hand cost $112 million for 185 MWh of capacity or a cost of $605 per kwh. Renewables make up almost 20% of U.S. electricity production with very little installed battery capacity. So, it isn't necessarily clear that batteries are required on a massive scale, let alone lithium ion batteries generally or Tesla lithium ion batteries specifically.Here is a chart from EIA about battery installed capacity. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41813#:~:text=Nearly%20all%20of%20the%20utility,power%20capacity%20and%20energy%20capacity.2018 saw half a gigawatt-hour installed, but was likely dominated by non-Tesla sources. There is impressive growth for the sector as a whole, but total installed capacity over ~20 years is dwarfed by pumped storage from the single previously mentioned power station in Virginia.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 07/14/2020 07:56 amGrid storage is dominated currently by pumped hydroelectric power. It is far cheaper as well. For instance, the Bath County Pumped Storage Station has 24 GWh of capacity and cost $3.82 billion to construct or a cost of $159 per kwh (adjusted for inflation). The Hornsdale Power Reserve tesla battery on the hand cost $112 million for 185 MWh of capacity or a cost of $605 per kwh. Renewables make up almost 20% of U.S. electricity production with very little installed battery capacity. So, it isn't necessarily clear that batteries are required on a massive scale, let alone lithium ion batteries generally or Tesla lithium ion batteries specifically.Here is a chart from EIA about battery installed capacity. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=41813#:~:text=Nearly%20all%20of%20the%20utility,power%20capacity%20and%20energy%20capacity.2018 saw half a gigawatt-hour installed, but was likely dominated by non-Tesla sources. There is impressive growth for the sector as a whole, but total installed capacity over ~20 years is dwarfed by pumped storage from the single previously mentioned power station in Virginia.So Liion Batteries are 4 times the cost of pumped storage, per gigawatt-hour installed.With battery breakthroughs, they will reduce that and become more competitive. However Tesla batteries offer more grid services, more quickly than pumped storage, which has made them profitable with the Hornsdale power reserve, and thus likely to be installed by utilities, and businesses.Also permitting, planning, and scale of construction mean batteries can be installed very much more quickly, with less of an obvious environmental impact. No reservoirs have to be built, or turbine halls..... I an emergency batteries could probably be installed in days, (low single digit) with mega packs connected to substations, or key infrastructure. So although pumped storage is very important, there appears to be a massive market for batteries, and opportunity for Tesla.
Quote from: Eka on 05/08/2020 02:13 pmIt needs to be remembered that the ones who will still be buying are the ones with large incomes. Recessions and depressions don't effect them as much. It is the average to poor people who get hit the hardest.Actually, I believe the opposite to be true: the income of the wealthiest people comes predominantly from the growth of companies rather than from wages or salaries, and therefore rise and fall much more dramatically with economic conditions.You can see this in the impact on governments that derive a large fraction of their tax revenue from high-income people: revenues tend to plummet just as demand for transfer payments (and taxes to fund them) rises.
It needs to be remembered that the ones who will still be buying are the ones with large incomes. Recessions and depressions don't effect them as much. It is the average to poor people who get hit the hardest.
More likely I think that Musk will set up a proper bank, offering full financial services: Loans, insurance, money transfer, bank accounts, investments, commercial banking, credit, etc. A Tesla + SpaceX bank. In which they park their excess profits as Tier 1 capital (cash, etc.). By the magic of fractional reserve banking they can then lend up to 20 times their Tier 1 capital. This will be very useful for Tesla as they can lend some of it out for purchases of cars, solar roofs, corporate battery projects, etc. SpaceX can also lend money to martian settlers and those wanting to set up businesses on Mars. Most lending would have to be for property and commercial [1], but even so hundreds of billions could be lent for Mars settlement [2]. SpaceX have a relationship with the settler as both customer and perhaps employer within the martian settlement and the bank would have a relationship as both a lender and bank account (into which their wages are paid) so this lending is pretty safe [3].Elon wanted to turn PayPal into a full bank fit for the 21st century, but it never happened after it was bought out. Central to this was a tight relationship with their customers using mobile phones. This will be his opportunity, if Tesla and SpaceX make as much money as some think they will, then this bank could easily become the biggest in the world.Doing it this way would enable Elon to keep his Tesla and SpaceX shares and still meet the vast capital requirements for Mars in a couple of decades. SpaceX and Tesla would also probably pay dividends, but only when they cannot see internal uses for the money. These dividends can be used by Elon to directly fund the Mars settlement, i.e. inward investment.[1] To pass stress testing.[2] Loans would be made to settlers for their tickets, who then repay with interest out of their wages. SpaceX then make an immediate profit out of the ticket, which then gets passed back to the bank in higher capital. This enables the bank to make more lending (most of which is on Earth so it is not a pyramid scheme).[3] As long as the martian settlement is economically viable (note that does not mean break even because inward investment can supply added capital for a long time).
Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 07/12/2020 09:30 pmQuote from: Coastal Ron on 07/12/2020 08:33 pmQuote from: MikeAtkinson on 07/12/2020 08:18 pmMore likely I think that Musk will set up a proper bank, offering full financial services: Loans, insurance, money transfer, bank accounts, investments, commercial banking, credit, etc. A Tesla + SpaceX bank. In which they park their excess profits as Tier 1 capital (cash, etc.).Tesla is a publicly traded company, and there are limits on what the companies Board of Directors, who have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, will allow the CEO to do. Car companies have had their own financial entities, but once you start venturing outside of financing Tesla products then I think there would be pushback from the Board.Otherwise I agree that Elon Musk could set up a financial institution that is focused on the well being of Mars colonists, just like my credit union is focused on the well being of its customers, who are also the shareholders.Whether SpaceX or Tesla need to be a part of such a financial institution is debatable.Agreed about fiduciary responsibility, but Tesla already has financing and insurance and probably will soon be into payments for their ride hailing service. Knowing how both Tesla and SpaceX like vertical integration it is not much of stretch that they will vertically integrate banking. For both SpaceX and Tesla the motivation is the same, ensuring that their customers have ready finance and other services and building up a relationship with their customers that can lead to further sales.A First United Bank of Sol System. Not just for Mars but for Earth, the Moon and other Solar System locations as well. It would handle little things like monetary exchanges from local Lunar or Mars or In-Space currencies to and from Earth currencies. Many Banks make a lot of money off of such currency exchanges. Why have a different currency for like Mars or the Moon? A different Political societal unit such as Mars or a Lunar colony need an ability to isolate themselves for the sake of the internal stabilization of internal trade, salaries, prices, etc. Else they become at the mercy of what happens to some other political societal unit's economic problems. Since most of the political societal unit's economy is based on internal supply and demand with some percent of external supply and demand trade it helps to cushion the local economy of say Mars from what is happening on Earth. If Mars or a Lunar or a grouping of In-Space habitat colonies are successful they will be a fairly rapid growing economies and definitely not stagnant. Each of the three possible colonies listed also would not grow at the same rates and so each would need it's own currency.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 07/12/2020 08:33 pmQuote from: MikeAtkinson on 07/12/2020 08:18 pmMore likely I think that Musk will set up a proper bank, offering full financial services: Loans, insurance, money transfer, bank accounts, investments, commercial banking, credit, etc. A Tesla + SpaceX bank. In which they park their excess profits as Tier 1 capital (cash, etc.).Tesla is a publicly traded company, and there are limits on what the companies Board of Directors, who have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, will allow the CEO to do. Car companies have had their own financial entities, but once you start venturing outside of financing Tesla products then I think there would be pushback from the Board.Otherwise I agree that Elon Musk could set up a financial institution that is focused on the well being of Mars colonists, just like my credit union is focused on the well being of its customers, who are also the shareholders.Whether SpaceX or Tesla need to be a part of such a financial institution is debatable.Agreed about fiduciary responsibility, but Tesla already has financing and insurance and probably will soon be into payments for their ride hailing service. Knowing how both Tesla and SpaceX like vertical integration it is not much of stretch that they will vertically integrate banking. For both SpaceX and Tesla the motivation is the same, ensuring that their customers have ready finance and other services and building up a relationship with their customers that can lead to further sales.
Quote from: MikeAtkinson on 07/12/2020 08:18 pmMore likely I think that Musk will set up a proper bank, offering full financial services: Loans, insurance, money transfer, bank accounts, investments, commercial banking, credit, etc. A Tesla + SpaceX bank. In which they park their excess profits as Tier 1 capital (cash, etc.).Tesla is a publicly traded company, and there are limits on what the companies Board of Directors, who have a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, will allow the CEO to do. Car companies have had their own financial entities, but once you start venturing outside of financing Tesla products then I think there would be pushback from the Board.Otherwise I agree that Elon Musk could set up a financial institution that is focused on the well being of Mars colonists, just like my credit union is focused on the well being of its customers, who are also the shareholders.Whether SpaceX or Tesla need to be a part of such a financial institution is debatable.
More likely I think that Musk will set up a proper bank, offering full financial services: Loans, insurance, money transfer, bank accounts, investments, commercial banking, credit, etc. A Tesla + SpaceX bank. In which they park their excess profits as Tier 1 capital (cash, etc.).
Quote from: ncb1397 on 07/13/2020 05:08 pmTesla has risen another 10% today (normal trading hours aren't over though) putting market capitalization at the combined value of the next 3 biggest market capitilization automakers - Honda, Volkswagen Group and Toyota. The combined auto sales of all 3 brands is about 60 to 70 times Tesla's 2019 number. Or to look at it another way, Tesla vehicle sales last year were comparable to Volkswagen's Porsche unit - one of their smaller units. So, what is driving this? There are a few possibilities that creates positive feedback loops.1.) The stock is going up, so people buy, so the stock goes up2.) One of Tesla's greatest assets is its ability to fund itself cheaply. How cheaply is dependent on the stock price. Owners of Tesla can get cash delivered on demand with very little dilution of their ownership of said cash. So, let's say that the stock rises by 10% on Friday. Well, the value of one of Tesla's greatest assets, unusually cheap access to capital just went up meaning the stock is worth more. 3.) Normal short squeeze behaviorWhether anything will break the feedback loop and reverse the melt-up is debatable, but arguably similar events have happened in the past with this particular stock. On February 21, 2020, when it hit ~$900 but promptly crashed back down to ~$450 within 30 days. One of the reasons I see written about is anticipated S&P inclusion.
Tesla has risen another 10% today (normal trading hours aren't over though) putting market capitalization at the combined value of the next 3 biggest market capitilization automakers - Honda, Volkswagen Group and Toyota. The combined auto sales of all 3 brands is about 60 to 70 times Tesla's 2019 number. Or to look at it another way, Tesla vehicle sales last year were comparable to Volkswagen's Porsche unit - one of their smaller units. So, what is driving this? There are a few possibilities that creates positive feedback loops.1.) The stock is going up, so people buy, so the stock goes up2.) One of Tesla's greatest assets is its ability to fund itself cheaply. How cheaply is dependent on the stock price. Owners of Tesla can get cash delivered on demand with very little dilution of their ownership of said cash. So, let's say that the stock rises by 10% on Friday. Well, the value of one of Tesla's greatest assets, unusually cheap access to capital just went up meaning the stock is worth more. 3.) Normal short squeeze behaviorWhether anything will break the feedback loop and reverse the melt-up is debatable, but arguably similar events have happened in the past with this particular stock. On February 21, 2020, when it hit ~$900 but promptly crashed back down to ~$450 within 30 days.
