Author Topic: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars  (Read 123486 times)

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Offline AC in NC

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #441 on: 01/07/2021 03:23 am »
Also, I think he only has about 30% of Tesla stock.  He is the largest shareholder, thus the CEO.

IIRC, it's about 20-22% of Tesla and between 45-47% of SpaceX

Elon Musk is not the sole owner of SpaceX. AFAIK he has >50% of the voting stock, but there probably is also lots of non-voting stock owned by other people.

This doesn't really impact what you quoted.

Offline ShaunML09

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #442 on: 01/07/2021 02:24 pm »
Currently now the richest person in the world

https://twitter.com/robtfrank/status/1347193416048902144

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #443 on: 01/07/2021 03:44 pm »
Currently now the richest person in the world

https://twitter.com/robtfrank/status/1347193416048902144

Forbes disagrees..

Jeff Bezos: 186.1B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/jeff-bezos/?list=rtb/

Elon Musk:$173.6B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=rtb/&sh=31abceeb7999

And the Forbes list is kept more up to date with the Bloomberg list only updating daily.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2021 04:02 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline Welsh Dragon

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #444 on: 01/07/2021 03:56 pm »
Isn't most of that in stock? Ie not in available liquid cash? So what's the relevance? He's hardly about to sell off all of his shares.

Offline Frogstar_Robot

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #445 on: 01/07/2021 04:00 pm »
Forbes disagrees..

Jeff Bezos: 186.1B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/jeff-bezos/?list=rtb/

Elon Musk:$173.6B
https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#703a1aea3d78

And the Forbes list is kept more up to date with the Bloomberg list only updating daily.

Let me just check...

Frogstar_Robot: $0B

Not jealous. Honest!
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Rule 3: No "King of the Internet" attitudes.

Offline novo2044

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #446 on: 01/07/2021 05:13 pm »
Isn't most of that in stock? Ie not in available liquid cash? So what's the relevance? He's hardly about to sell off all of his shares.

No one should have a lot of liquid cash on hand.  Even middle class people generally have their money in assets of variable liquidity.

Elon doesn't need to liquidate his shares to buy a yacht, though he could do that on a small scale occasionally if he wanted to.  It's more like various investment funds, banks, and governments would be happy to provide him with a billions in capital if he wanted to start a new company knowing he has assets to underwrite the venture even if it fails. 

It's also a reflection of the success of his companies.  Elon is the richest man in the world for now.  The employees who were with him when he founded SpaceX and Tesla have a shot at being billionaires.  Many employees are now millionaires, which in turn means he can keep direct compensation low and still recruit the absolute best talent in the world.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #447 on: 01/07/2021 07:17 pm »
Isn't most of that in stock? Ie not in available liquid cash? So what's the relevance? He's hardly about to sell off all of his shares.

No one should have a lot of liquid cash on hand.  Even middle class people generally have their money in assets of variable liquidity.

Elon doesn't need to liquidate his shares to buy a yacht, though he could do that on a small scale occasionally if he wanted to.  It's more like various investment funds, banks, and governments would be happy to provide him with a billions in capital if he wanted to start a new company knowing he has assets to underwrite the venture even if it fails. 

It's also a reflection of the success of his companies.  Elon is the richest man in the world for now.  The employees who were with him when he founded SpaceX and Tesla have a shot at being billionaires.  Many employees are now millionaires, which in turn means he can keep direct compensation low and still recruit the absolute best talent in the world.
Reminds me of Microsoft of the late 1990's early 2000's when most of the Microsoft employees (the actual ones that had stock options) that had become multi millionaires. One problem with that and it is many of these retired during the next decade and Microsoft started to stagnate and became less and less the goto company for business and server software.

Hopefully Musk's companies have a decade or two before the exodus occurs. SpaceX is more a unique case where what they are doing is not something to be found elsewhere. Unlike with Tesla where every automaker and a few startups have gone all electric with AI self driving software projects. The Tesla skill set is in demand at the moment. But the SpaceX skill set demand is sparse. The prediction is that the demand will pick up. This is due to the impact of SpaceX on the space investment world and the effective obsoletting of the existing designs for more cost effective designs (reusable/fully reusable) that can compete in a new universe of SpaceX's own making once Starship starts a successful and much cheaper to space access price than current. But that has yet to happen but is likely less than a decade and maybe even likely less than 5 years.

ADDED:
NOTE: Even though Musk may not yet be classed as the richest person. He is very close. May even be the richest by end of week.

But the true event that will keep him at that position is the upward significant advance of SpaceX. This will happen likely later this year after (hopefully) both Starlink and Starship success becomes more of a reality. Starlink success will have most of the impact but Starship success is an amplifying factor because ir can reduce Starlink operating costs significantly. Here operating costs include the replacement of Sats every 5 years because they are seem as a consumable due to their short life span vs a sat with a long life as seen as a infrastructure capital equipment.

And then the final item. Riches are about what ones does with it not because one has it. Fortunately for Space. Both the #1 and #2 have space expansion investment even if they make nothing from it in their sights. The combined wealth of the 2 of nearly $400B should be able to make a big splash for once in the advancement of humans into space. Just 10% of that wealth wisely and economically on space of $40B could rapidly propel humans out into space to stay.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2021 08:16 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #448 on: 01/07/2021 10:38 pm »
Currently now the richest person in the world

https://twitter.com/robtfrank/status/1347193416048902144

Forbes disagrees..

Jeff Bezos: 186.1B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/jeff-bezos/?list=rtb/

Elon Musk:$173.6B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=rtb/&sh=31abceeb7999

And the Forbes list is kept more up to date with the Bloomberg list only updating daily.

Jeez dude. Relax. Does Elon’s successes bother you that much? And to correct your theory, it’s got nothing to do with the estimates updating daily vs hourly or whatever.

Forbes and Bloomberg have had a roughly $15B difference in Musk’s wealth estimate for most of 2020. It is a case of using slightly different methodologies for the calculation. I suspect Forbes either discounts his non-publicly traded shares - i.e SpaceX - by a greater percentage, due to the perceived liquidity risk associated with selling private shares, or they apply a greater safety margin for shares used as security for his loans.

Either way, both Bloomberg and Forbes still use the last official $46B valuation for SpaceX, which we know is significantly out of date. In fact, SpaceX was suggested to be worth closer to $100B today, but it is a valuation that will only be officially recognized once they do a capital raise at that value.

So the reality is that Elon is actually significantly richer than even Bloomberg’s current estimate.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2021 10:42 pm by M.E.T. »

Offline r8ix

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #449 on: 01/07/2021 11:11 pm »

Jeez dude. Relax. Does Elon’s successes bother you that much? And to correct your theory, it’s got nothing to do with the estimates updating daily vs hourly or whatever.

Forbes and Bloomberg have had a roughly $15B difference in Musk’s wealth estimate for most of 2020. It is a case of using slightly different methodologies for the calculation. I suspect Forbes either discounts his non-publicly traded shares - i.e SpaceX - by a greater percentage, due to the perceived liquidity risk associated with selling private shares, or they apply a greater safety margin for shares used as security for his loans.

Either way, both Bloomberg and Forbes still use the last official $46B valuation for SpaceX, which we know is significantly out of date. In fact, SpaceX was suggested to be worth closer to $100B today, but it is a valuation that will only be officially recognized once they do a capital raise at that value.

So the reality is that Elon is actually significantly richer than even Bloomberg’s current estimate.

Forbes explicitly states that they discount the shares that are pledged as collateral against loans.

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #450 on: 01/07/2021 11:23 pm »

Jeez dude. Relax. Does Elon’s successes bother you that much? And to correct your theory, it’s got nothing to do with the estimates updating daily vs hourly or whatever.

Forbes and Bloomberg have had a roughly $15B difference in Musk’s wealth estimate for most of 2020. It is a case of using slightly different methodologies for the calculation. I suspect Forbes either discounts his non-publicly traded shares - i.e SpaceX - by a greater percentage, due to the perceived liquidity risk associated with selling private shares, or they apply a greater safety margin for shares used as security for his loans.

Either way, both Bloomberg and Forbes still use the last official $46B valuation for SpaceX, which we know is significantly out of date. In fact, SpaceX was suggested to be worth closer to $100B today, but it is a valuation that will only be officially recognized once they do a capital raise at that value.

So the reality is that Elon is actually significantly richer than even Bloomberg’s current estimate.

Forbes explicitly states that they discount the shares that are pledged as collateral against loans.

As does Bloomberg. They may just use different ratios.

In any event, Elon has about $1B in debt,  compared to shares worth almost $200B. So whichever ratio is used, it is bound to be overly conservative.

Offline Lar

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #451 on: 01/08/2021 12:28 am »
Add in the fact that Tesla is on a tear right now, and within a year, it's not impossible that Elon would be the richest man in the world.
(fan) Or within a month, whichever...

(mod) Let's not go TOO far down the rabbit hole of talking about Tesla specifics...

« Last Edit: 01/08/2021 12:39 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Slarty1080

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #452 on: 01/08/2021 01:48 pm »
Isn't most of that in stock? Ie not in available liquid cash? So what's the relevance? He's hardly about to sell off all of his shares.

No one should have a lot of liquid cash on hand.  Even middle class people generally have their money in assets of variable liquidity.

Elon doesn't need to liquidate his shares to buy a yacht, though he could do that on a small scale occasionally if he wanted to.  It's more like various investment funds, banks, and governments would be happy to provide him with a billions in capital if he wanted to start a new company knowing he has assets to underwrite the venture even if it fails. 

It's also a reflection of the success of his companies.  Elon is the richest man in the world for now.  The employees who were with him when he founded SpaceX and Tesla have a shot at being billionaires.  Many employees are now millionaires, which in turn means he can keep direct compensation low and still recruit the absolute best talent in the world.
Reminds me of Microsoft of the late 1990's early 2000's when most of the Microsoft employees (the actual ones that had stock options) that had become multi millionaires. One problem with that and it is many of these retired during the next decade and Microsoft started to stagnate and became less and less the goto company for business and server software.

Hopefully Musk's companies have a decade or two before the exodus occurs. SpaceX is more a unique case where what they are doing is not something to be found elsewhere. Unlike with Tesla where every automaker and a few startups have gone all electric with AI self driving software projects. The Tesla skill set is in demand at the moment. But the SpaceX skill set demand is sparse. The prediction is that the demand will pick up. This is due to the impact of SpaceX on the space investment world and the effective obsoletting of the existing designs for more cost effective designs (reusable/fully reusable) that can compete in a new universe of SpaceX's own making once Starship starts a successful and much cheaper to space access price than current. But that has yet to happen but is likely less than a decade and maybe even likely less than 5 years.

ADDED:
NOTE: Even though Musk may not yet be classed as the richest person. He is very close. May even be the richest by end of week.

But the true event that will keep him at that position is the upward significant advance of SpaceX. This will happen likely later this year after (hopefully) both Starlink and Starship success becomes more of a reality. Starlink success will have most of the impact but Starship success is an amplifying factor because ir can reduce Starlink operating costs significantly. Here operating costs include the replacement of Sats every 5 years because they are seem as a consumable due to their short life span vs a sat with a long life as seen as a infrastructure capital equipment.

And then the final item. Riches are about what ones does with it not because one has it. Fortunately for Space. Both the #1 and #2 have space expansion investment even if they make nothing from it in their sights. The combined wealth of the 2 of nearly $400B should be able to make a big splash for once in the advancement of humans into space. Just 10% of that wealth wisely and economically on space of $40B could rapidly propel humans out into space to stay.
One particular skill of Elon Musk that has helped in this area is his ability to find and recruit the very best people. Another advantage is the aspirational nature of SpaceX and their attitude to cost reduction. But ultimately his time is limited. How long is difficult to tell I imagine he might have 10-20 years at the current pace, after that he might well continue as a figure head but he will need to bring in some new blood at the top and move to Mars.
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Online Slarty1080

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #453 on: 01/09/2021 08:20 am »
Currently now the richest person in the world

https://twitter.com/robtfrank/status/1347193416048902144

Forbes disagrees..

Jeff Bezos: 186.1B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/jeff-bezos/?list=rtb/

Elon Musk:$173.6B
https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=rtb/&sh=31abceeb7999

And the Forbes list is kept more up to date with the Bloomberg list only updating daily.
Well looks like Forbes has changed it's mind
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #454 on: 01/09/2021 08:52 am »
Yup.

Forbes: Musk #1, $189.7 billion.

Link...
« Last Edit: 01/09/2021 08:53 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline libra

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #455 on: 01/09/2021 10:08 am »
Sounds so weird. Only some years ago Amazon was already a cash machine - while Tesla and SpaceX more and more looked like money pits.

Don't forget Mush desperate situation in 2008, and then all the setbacks suffered by SpaceX and Tesla over the last decade (the 2015 and 2016 failures for SpaceX - and Tesla major production crisis in summer 2018, when Musk nearly blow a fuse - a lethal combination of Ambien, insomnia and Twitter... he was nearly sacked !)

Meanwhile Bezos was seating on a mountain of dollars. Maybe his divorce cut into his asset, somewhat - Madame Bezos (rightly !) wanted her slice of Amazon colossal cake - a cake stuffed with dollars.

Offline Eka

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #456 on: 01/09/2021 02:22 pm »
*snip*

Forbes and Bloomberg have had a roughly $15B difference in Musk’s wealth estimate for most of 2020. It is a case of using slightly different methodologies for the calculation. I suspect Forbes either discounts his non-publicly traded shares - i.e SpaceX - by a greater percentage, due to the perceived liquidity risk associated with selling private shares, or they apply a greater safety margin for shares used as security for his loans.

Either way, both Bloomberg and Forbes still use the last official $46B valuation for SpaceX, which we know is significantly out of date. In fact, SpaceX was suggested to be worth closer to $100B today, but it is a valuation that will only be officially recognized once they do a capital raise at that value.

So the reality is that Elon is actually significantly richer than even Bloomberg’s current estimate.
I can confirm Forbes' estimates of wealth can be wildly off. In the US it is easier for them to make a relatively accurate estimate, but for some stuff they just can't get the numbers. For some countries there's also no duty to report one's assets or income sources. My former partner was a citizen of one of those countries, and Forbes' estimation of his wealth was off by over an order of magnitude.

As for Musk's wealth, it's for what he wants to do, not for himself. Back when SpaceX was new I had one conversation with him, In it I told him if he wanted to restart interest in space exploration, and to colonize Mars, he'd have to do it himself. I based that on how long the public interest maintained for Apollo. I figured he'd just get a short splash with the greenhouse. Not enough to get government funding flowing in large enough amounts, nor for anywhere near long enough. The rest of the conversation delved in gross details on what to do and how to fund colonizing Mars. He's been implementing it since, BEVs, solar energy, etc. Some new ideas have been added to the vision, and many details filled in. The detail work has all been his and those he found to help. Yes, I even joked about him ending up a trillionaire if he pulled it off. I told him of ways to build capital fast in a company, why and how to maintain control of the company, and what he was up against with investors and the fossil fuel industry. The rocket part he's managed to get costing much less than I expected.
We talk about creating a Star Trek future, but will end up with The Expanse if radical change doesn't happen.

Offline Vanspace

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #457 on: 01/10/2021 04:48 pm »

Reminds me of Microsoft of the late 1990's early 2000's when most of the Microsoft employees (the actual ones that had stock options) that had become multi millionaires. One problem with that and it is many of these retired during the next decade and Microsoft started to stagnate and became less and less the goto company for business and server software.

Hopefully Musk's companies have a decade or two before the exodus occurs. SpaceX is more a unique case where what they are doing is not something to be found elsewhere. Unlike with Tesla where every automaker and a few startups have gone all electric with AI self driving software projects. The Tesla skill set is in demand at the moment. But the SpaceX skill set demand is sparse. The prediction is that the demand will pick up. This is due to the impact of SpaceX on the space investment world and the effective obsoletting of the existing designs for more cost effective designs (reusable/fully reusable) that can compete in a new universe of SpaceX's own making once Starship starts a successful and much cheaper to space access price than current. But that has yet to happen but is likely less than a decade and maybe even likely less than 5 years.

snip

The Microsoft millionaire exodus also created a vast number of companies. Even today, any startup is far more likely to be funded if there is a MS, Apple, Amazon or Google millionaire involved. The ability of this network to create and finance tech companies has built an incredibly diversified and resilient ecosystem.

SpaceX can't go to Mars alone. There has to be an ecosystem of customers for its space truck business. If SpaceX starts spinning out SpaceX millionaires, there is a very good chance they will turn around to start space companies. That is what SpaceX will need more than anything else to succeed.

With a whole lot of simplification, SpaceX seems to be following the same path as MS. Develop radical new way to make (computing/space) cheap for the masses. Be forced to develop a product that uses the new capabilities(Word/Excel/Starlink) which make the mothership profitable. Spin out a few hundred millionaires to create companies exploiting the core tech. Refocus back to providing large scale OS/space trucking services to service all the new companies.
"p can not equal zero" is the only scientific Truth. I could be wrong (p<0.05)

Offline libra

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #458 on: 01/10/2021 05:30 pm »
Quote
SpaceX can't go to Mars alone. There has to be an ecosystem of customers for its space truck business. If SpaceX starts spinning out SpaceX millionaires, there is a very good chance they will turn around to start space companies. That is what SpaceX will need more than anything else to succeed.

With a whole lot of simplification, SpaceX seems to be following the same path as MS. Develop radical new way to make (computing/space) cheap for the masses. Be forced to develop a product that uses the new capabilities(Word/Excel/Starlink) which make the mothership profitable. Spin out a few hundred millionaires to create companies exploiting the core tech. Refocus back to providing large scale OS/space trucking services to service all the new companies.

Good point. And it has happened before... in the 70's, Gerard O'Neill space colony craze most important development was that it dragged an extremely large number of space enthusiasts along it.

A lot of private space pioneers starting in the 80's (up to this very day) - started right there. Countless of them, actually. 
Gerard O'Neill himself had his own Starlink-like satellite money-making scheme - Geostar.  It didn't panned out as he hoped, but the basic idea was the correct one.

Offline inonepiece

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Re: Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars
« Reply #459 on: 02/04/2021 06:32 pm »
Elon's twitter follower count passed NASA's sometime about a week ago.  I assume the recent spike is mostly due to his new status as "world's richest man", in turn caused by the recent(ish) large Tesla stock price rise.

Data source: socialblade.com (but my ugly chart)

Note: please don't read into this some secret motivation for me posting this. I love both Elon and NASA :-)  -- and I'm curious about the public interest.

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