Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars

[su27k]

I too believe Tesla stock is overvalued, heck even Elon himself said so a while ago when the stock price is much lower. But I don't see any inherent flaws in BEV or Tesla itself, it's just the current stock market is overheated as a whole and probably overdue for a correction.

I don't think Elon should sell his stock though, since it may cause panic and he would have to pay a lot of taxes, it's better to just let the companies themselves do a new funding round. Tesla is already doing this, I hope SpaceX will follow suit soon, it's basically free money, they should get it as soon as possible.

[docmordrid]

A friend of mine has a Model 3 and charges with a 120V outlet just fine. Unlike earlier BEVs with low range, you have plenty of buffer.

And a dryer or RV outlet isn’t that expensive. I had a dryer outlet put in for $500 or so.

In Detroit & subs many independent shops were built on their owners home property, so Ford etc. got Edison to oblige. In the 1950's to 1970's this somewhat repeated in further out suburbs. Thanks to  previous owner we ended up with a trifecta; 3 phase, 240 and 120 in our garage/shop.

[Brovane]

Another charging issue is on longer trips. If there's a Tesla Supercharger along the way you get a huge charging rate, say, 400-500 miles/hour. Sounds great but how does that compare to a typical ICE? Well, to charge halfway (~200 miles), it takes 20-30 minutes. An ICE can "charge" completely (400 miles) in less than five minutes and ICE "chargers" are everywhere. There simply is no comparison.

The EV Cannonball record from New York to Santa Monica(2800 miles) is held by a Tesla Model 3 LR at less than 48-hours.  I would submit that the ability to cover 2800 miles in less than 48-hours is more than fast enough for 99% of drivers.   I know the ICE record is 25 hours and 39 minutes but that involved dangers speeds of over 100mph+.  To many people are getting hung up on the EV charging rate.

[Owlon]

Another charging issue is on longer trips. If there's a Tesla Supercharger along the way you get a huge charging rate, say, 400-500 miles/hour. Sounds great but how does that compare to a typical ICE? Well, to charge halfway (~200 miles), it takes 20-30 minutes. An ICE can "charge" completely (400 miles) in less than five minutes and ICE "chargers" are everywhere. There simply is no comparison.

The EV Cannonball record from New York to Santa Monica(2800 miles) is held by a Tesla Model 3 LR at less than 48-hours.  I would submit that the ability to cover 2800 miles in less than 48-hours is more than fast enough for 99% of drivers.   I know the ICE record is 25 hours and 39 minutes but that involved dangers speeds of over 100mph+.  To many people are getting hung up on the EV charging rate.

Not to drift too far off topic here, but it's worth pointing out that Tesla developed battery swap technology that could swap in a freshly charged battery pack in less time than it takes to fill a tank of gas, and at a similar price. They discontinued it after some trials in California because basically nobody was using it vs just regular charging. Not only that, but there will only be more charging infrastructure added across the world as EVs become more commonplace.

I think we'll find, another couple decades down the line, that the limit to the EV market is the same as the global demand for cars. Some countries have laws or plans in place to ban ICE sales after a certain year (normally 2030-2040 or so). Point being that the long-term best-case market cap of the auto manufacturing portion of Tesla alone should be a considerable chunk of the value of the entire global auto industry.

[ncb1397]

Another charging issue is on longer trips. If there's a Tesla Supercharger along the way you get a huge charging rate, say, 400-500 miles/hour. Sounds great but how does that compare to a typical ICE? Well, to charge halfway (~200 miles), it takes 20-30 minutes. An ICE can "charge" completely (400 miles) in less than five minutes and ICE "chargers" are everywhere. There simply is no comparison.

The EV Cannonball record from New York to Santa Monica(2800 miles) is held by a Tesla Model 3 LR at less than 48-hours.  I would submit that the ability to cover 2800 miles in less than 48-hours is more than fast enough for 99% of drivers.   I know the ICE record is 25 hours and 39 minutes but that involved dangers speeds of over 100mph+.  To many people are getting hung up on the EV charging rate.

Not to drift too far off topic here, but it's worth pointing out that Tesla developed battery swap technology that could swap in a freshly charged battery pack in less time than it takes to fill a tank of gas, and at a similar price. They discontinued it after some trials in California because basically nobody was using it vs just regular charging. Not only that, but there will only be more charging infrastructure added across the world as EVs become more commonplace.

Umm, maybe because you needed an invitation (that from all indications, there may have been only 200 sent out), and an appointment and it cost nearly $100 when they were giving away charging for free (that is no longer the case for people not grandfathered in)? There was so many roadblocks, otherwise the Tesla youtube community would have done it just to try it out and post on it but never could.

I mean, does this look like somewhere that is trying to get customers? It is locked up like a fort.

[Brovane]

Another charging issue is on longer trips. If there's a Tesla Supercharger along the way you get a huge charging rate, say, 400-500 miles/hour. Sounds great but how does that compare to a typical ICE? Well, to charge halfway (~200 miles), it takes 20-30 minutes. An ICE can "charge" completely (400 miles) in less than five minutes and ICE "chargers" are everywhere. There simply is no comparison.

The EV Cannonball record from New York to Santa Monica(2800 miles) is held by a Tesla Model 3 LR at less than 48-hours.  I would submit that the ability to cover 2800 miles in less than 48-hours is more than fast enough for 99% of drivers.   I know the ICE record is 25 hours and 39 minutes but that involved dangers speeds of over 100mph+.  To many people are getting hung up on the EV charging rate.

Not to drift too far off topic here, but it's worth pointing out that Tesla developed battery swap technology that could swap in a freshly charged battery pack in less time than it takes to fill a tank of gas, and at a similar price. They discontinued it after some trials in California because basically nobody was using it vs just regular charging. Not only that, but there will only be more charging infrastructure added across the world as EVs become more commonplace.

I think we'll find, another couple decades down the line, that the limit to the EV market is the same as the global demand for cars. Some countries have laws or plans in place to ban ICE sales after a certain year (normally 2030-2040 or so). Point being that the long-term best-case market cap of the auto manufacturing portion of Tesla alone should be a considerable chunk of the value of the entire global auto industry.

The new battery design of Structural Batteries that Musk recently announced for Tesla during the 2020 battery day.  Just confirms that Tesla has moved away from battery swapping going forward.   

NIO in China has done some widespread deployment of battery swapping in certain areas of the country. 

[Robotbeat]

Yeah, and supercharging works better than people think. My current EV has a 50kW-peak "quick charge" port, and it seems to fill up pretty fast. Model 3s and Model Ys can do 5 times that, about 250kW. And those cars are also really efficient, so you're looking at about 1000mph peak charging speeds. Stop for bathroom break, and you've got >200 miles of range.

And the new, Plaid Model S has over 500 mile range. Can probably handle a 500kW chargerate. At some point, doesn't make sense to even bother with the complexity of battery swapping.

[ncb1397]

And the new, Plaid Model S has over 500 mile range. Can probably handle a 500kW chargerate. At some point, doesn't make sense to even bother with the complexity of battery swapping.

500 kw charging on 250 kw V3 superchargers? You are just inventing things that don't exist. And not everybody is going to buy a $140,000 car. Besides, given the real world benefits that some people are seeing on the V3 vs V2 superchargers, the theoretical difference from this mythical half megawatt charger may not line up with real world results...

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32132062/tesla-250-kw-vs-150-kw-supercharger-tested/

Stop for bathroom break, and you've got >200 miles of range.

Real world tests that I have seen put 200 miles of range at ~20 minutes on the latest superchargers that are pretty rare at this point (my 100,000 square mile state has 3 locations listed on the Tesla website).

[Robotbeat]

What if, and hold on to your butts, here, but what if Tesla has a v4 Supercharger? You know, the one they’ve been talking about for well over a year. That they explicitly mentioned with Cybertruck, which uses similar drivetrain as the Plaid Model S. Probably will start more like 350kW:

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-supercharger-v4-confirmed-model-s-plaid/

And Tesla Semi uses multiple v3 super chargers simultaneously. So boom, >500kW.


“What if Tesla keeps improving things in line with what they said they’d improve?”

“IMPOSSIBRUUUUU!!!”

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

SpaceX possible seeking of additional funding round at a valuation of $92B.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/spacex-worth-almost-100b-after-new-funding-round-report-says

The questions are if really there will be another funding round soon, what will be the negotiated valuation and when the funding round would take place.

[M.E.T.]

If the $92B valuation is confirmed it pushes Musk’s net worth up by around $20B, taking him from around $150B to roughly $170B. Just a small Tesla share rally away from overtaking Bezos at $185B.

Exciting times.

[philw1776]

Real world tests that I have seen put 200 miles of range at ~20 minutes on the latest superchargers that are pretty rare at this point (my 100,000 square mile state has 3 locations listed on the Tesla website).

FWIW That charging speed at the newest superchargers matches my Model Y experience. My BOLD.

/return to topic

[ZachF]

If the $92B valuation is confirmed it pushes Musk’s net worth up by around $20B, taking him from around $150B to roughly $170B. Just a small Tesla share rally away from overtaking Bezos at $185B.

Exciting times.

Also puts SpaceX's value up there with the current Aerospace big boys:

$128b Boeing
$99b Lockheed-Martin
$85b Airbus

[M.E.T.]

Worth noting that if the $92B valuation for SpaceX holds true, which probably is likely even though no shares have been issued at that price, then as of today, Musk has overtaken Bezos as the richest man in the world, given Tesla’s latest surge.

[Slarty1080]

Musk’s shares in Tesla will max out at around $200bn in the 10-15 year timespan we are looking at, assuming it gets to around a trillion dollar market cap.

His shares in SpaceX have the potential to go further. Starlink can take SpaceX to maybe a $200bn value, approximately half of which is owned by Musk.

If they move into asteroid mining thereafter, the sky is the limit.

Interesting to look back through this thread and see how quickly things are changing. I was shocked, Tesla currently has a total market cap of around $650 billion.

[M.E.T.]

Musk’s shares in Tesla will max out at around $200bn in the 10-15 year timespan we are looking at, assuming it gets to around a trillion dollar market cap.

His shares in SpaceX have the potential to go further. Starlink can take SpaceX to maybe a $200bn value, approximately half of which is owned by Musk.

If they move into asteroid mining thereafter, the sky is the limit.

Interesting to look back through this thread and see how quickly things are changing. I was shocked, Tesla currently has a total market cap of around $650 billion.

Indeed😀

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Because of Tesla and SpaceX values. Musk should not have any problem in financing a Mars colony even at a rate of spending $10B of his assets every synod for the next 20 synods for a total of $$200B.

At trip to Mars costs per 100mt/mission of <$80M each. That would be 2500 Starships landing on Mars at a rate of 125 per synod over the period of the next 50 years. To give some perspective all the countries together this year did 104 successful orbital launches. The average for the last couple of decades has been actually less than 90/yr. With a ratio of cargo to crewed of 9 to 1. Each Synod would encompass 11,300mt of cargo and 1,200 people.

So the topic of where the funds to accomplish Mars would come from has mostly been answered. Only now awaits the successful development of Starship and it's full reusability, in space refueling, and crew accommodations/outfitting validation.

NOTE: Tesla stock peaked at a price of $774 today. That is a MRKT CAP of $734B with Musk share of that would be ~$147B. Add to that an ever increasing valuation for SpaceX and it may not be long before Musk becomes the #1 richest person. But there are always catches to the riches. And that is the free ability to cash out and spend may not be there. Because of some share award rules or for other considerations such as ownership control to maintain the companies and forging forward and not to stagnate.

[hkultala]

Worth noting that if the $92B valuation for SpaceX holds true, which probably is likely even though no shares have been issued at that price, then as of today, Musk has overtaken Bezos as the richest man in the world, given Tesla’s latest surge.

Elon Musk is not the sole owner of SpaceX. AFAIK he has >50% of the voting stock, but there probably is also lots of non-voting stock owned by other people.

[spacenut]

Also, I think he only has about 30% of Tesla stock.  He is the largest shareholder, thus the CEO. 

[Robotbeat]

Elon is just $3 billion away from being the richest man in the world.

https://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/billionaire-news/elon-musk-is-just-3-billion-away-from-being-the-richest-person-in-the-world-could-surpass-jeff-bezos-any-moment/