S&P Dow Jones Indices announces that TSLA will (finally) be listed on the S&P500 index on or before Dec 21. Details are still being worked out concerning the mechanics of rebalancing the index with the addition of such a high market cap stock. TSLA is up over 10% after hours.https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201116-1258362/1258362_tdec215addconsult.pdf
Musk's total assets was reported today as being $117.5B. $77.5 of that being from Tesla alone. SpaceX's valuation must have gone up since last saw it. Plus Boring Company valuation is also now likely significant in that it has multiple actual building contracts and one that they have completed. Though I doubt it is other than some value close around $1B (>$500M but less than $2B). He also has obviously has other assets as well.NOTE: If he converts 2% of this wealth per year to pay for Mars operations and Cargo/Personnel that is ~$4.8B each Synod. Even at a cost of $250M per mission (single Starship to Mars) plus the cargo/Personnel costs. That is ~20 Starships sent each Synod. At 6 Cargo per Crew Starship that is ~300 persons to Mars each Synod or aver a decade 1,500 persons and 90 Cargo for a total of ~ 9,000mt of equipment and supplies.At a fixed dollar conversion rate of $2.4B per year it will take 50 years, if the wealth does not grow any over that period, for the wealth to be consumed. Over that period it will have paid for >45,000mt of Cargo and >7,500 persons to go to Mars. Way before then the cost per Starship to Mars is likely to lower to as little as $75M making the numbers clores to 2X the numbers estimated or 90,000mt of Cargo and 15,000 persons. Another impact is that the increase in usage of ISRU will likely lower the Cargo totals but increase the persons. The changes is dependent on the success and types of ISRU achieved.If SpaceX grows into a $500B+ company in about 20 years making Musk's assets to be around $250B. That doubles the totals for Mars over a 50 year period to values > 180,000mt of Cargo and 30,000 persons. Now add bootstaping and other investments into Mars and totals could be well 2X to 10X times that in 50 years of 360,000mt to 1,800,000mt and 60,000 to 300,000 persons.
Elon Musk is now world's second richest person:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/elon-musk-overtakes-bill-gates-to-become-worlds-second-richest.htmlWith Starlink revenues also coming online soon, any advantage Blue Origin might have had over SpaceX with "Bank of Bezos" is rapidly disappearing.
Once Starlink is operational, money will come in, and come in at a steady flow. This will allow SpaceX to borrow against it's worth, if need be for more cash to pour into Starship development and infrastructure. Starlink is going to be the cell phone vs the land line. Land infrastructure using fiber optic cables will be more expensive to install than satellite hookups. Starlink will also be more portable and could easily be used on RV's anywhere. Musk could easily get 50 million customers world wide in the first year. At just $50 profit a month off each customer, that is $2.5 billion a month. Maybe more, maybe less. He could sell his shares of Tesla, but Starlink will be worth far more than Tesla in the long run. This is because automobiles are a replacement item in America. Gasoline vehicles can last 20 years or more. This will be slow growth for Tesla over time. Then other manufacturers will be making competitive electric cars. Transition to mostly hybrids will probably be first as totally electric vehicles are still more expensive unless cheaper batteries can be made as well as longer range between charges. What is his personal profit per vehicle sold? Maybe $500. At 5 million cars sold per year, that is only $2.5 million per year. This is a big difference vs Starlink.
He could sell his shares of Tesla, but Starlink will be worth far more than Tesla in the long run. This is because automobiles are a replacement item in America.
Quote from: spacenut on 11/26/2020 12:42 pmOnce Starlink is operational, money will come in, and come in at a steady flow. This will allow SpaceX to borrow against it's worth, if need be for more cash to pour into Starship development and infrastructure. Starlink is going to be the cell phone vs the land line. Land infrastructure using fiber optic cables will be more expensive to install than satellite hookups. Starlink will also be more portable and could easily be used on RV's anywhere. Musk could easily get 50 million customers world wide in the first year. At just $50 profit a month off each customer, that is $2.5 billion a month. Maybe more, maybe less. He could sell his shares of Tesla, but Starlink will be worth far more than Tesla in the long run. This is because automobiles are a replacement item in America. Gasoline vehicles can last 20 years or more. This will be slow growth for Tesla over time. Then other manufacturers will be making competitive electric cars. Transition to mostly hybrids will probably be first as totally electric vehicles are still more expensive unless cheaper batteries can be made as well as longer range between charges. What is his personal profit per vehicle sold? Maybe $500. At 5 million cars sold per year, that is only $2.5 million per year. This is a big difference vs Starlink. Projected sales volume is NOT 5 million cars, it's 500,000 cars or 0.5 million. At $500 each (an imaginary #) it's $250 million.In any case Tesla's portfolio of technologies will continue to eclipse SpaceX's portfolio int the 2030s.But even more so Elon's "personal profit" is a meaningless figure and concept. It's not like he gets cash per vehicle sold. His compensation is stock via stock options. He is actually cash poor. He is not someone who sells X shares of Tesla fo fund SpaceX as Bezos does with his Amazon stock. Quite the contrary.
<snip>The significant difference between a space company and a consumer products company is the profit margins on revenues. Being high volume Tesla profit margins on it's products is actually small at 5% or less. At the moment it looks to be almost .5%. Being low volume and high risk, SpaceX has a high profit margin for its products and services of 10 to 20%. Although Starlink in the future is likely to dilute the profit margin to under 10% (maybe). Thus SpaceX makes 10 to 20X the profit per $1 of revenue than Tesla.<snip>
...On profit alone as a measurement, SpaceX is as big as Tesla....
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 11/26/2020 11:00 pm...On profit alone as a measurement, SpaceX is as big as Tesla....Not a reasonable comparison. SpaceX's growth opportunities are limited (as the rest of the launch market)--beyond possibly it's own Starlink launch market[1], and longer term maybe Mars. Tesla's growth opportunities are much broader and larger (remember that Tesla includes more than vehicles).Could as easily conclude that, based on absolute profit measurements in other markets (e.g. pet food, cosmetics, ...) Musk has the wrong portfolio mix. But that cursory analysis does not adequately address opportunities for innovation and growth in bleeding-edge markets.[1] Which is likely one reason why SpaceX has at first appearance a higher than expected growth forecast.
Quote from: philw1776 on 11/26/2020 09:15 pmQuote from: spacenut on 11/26/2020 12:42 pmOnce Starlink is operational, money will come in, and come in at a steady flow. This will allow SpaceX to borrow against it's worth, if need be for more cash to pour into Starship development and infrastructure. Starlink is going to be the cell phone vs the land line. Land infrastructure using fiber optic cables will be more expensive to install than satellite hookups. Starlink will also be more portable and could easily be used on RV's anywhere. Musk could easily get 50 million customers world wide in the first year. At just $50 profit a month off each customer, that is $2.5 billion a month. Maybe more, maybe less. He could sell his shares of Tesla, but Starlink will be worth far more than Tesla in the long run. This is because automobiles are a replacement item in America. Gasoline vehicles can last 20 years or more. This will be slow growth for Tesla over time. Then other manufacturers will be making competitive electric cars. Transition to mostly hybrids will probably be first as totally electric vehicles are still more expensive unless cheaper batteries can be made as well as longer range between charges. What is his personal profit per vehicle sold? Maybe $500. At 5 million cars sold per year, that is only $2.5 million per year. This is a big difference vs Starlink. Projected sales volume is NOT 5 million cars, it's 500,000 cars or 0.5 million. At $500 each (an imaginary #) it's $250 million.In any case Tesla's portfolio of technologies will continue to eclipse SpaceX's portfolio int the 2030s.But even more so Elon's "personal profit" is a meaningless figure and concept. It's not like he gets cash per vehicle sold. His compensation is stock via stock options. He is actually cash poor. He is not someone who sells X shares of Tesla fo fund SpaceX as Bezos does with his Amazon stock. Quite the contrary.Being a space company. SpaceX profit margin on revenue is somewhere between 10% and 20%. Or on it's ~$2B in revenue of about $200-400M in profit. On profit alone as a measurement, SpaceX is as big as Tesla. Plus SpaceX has been turning profits for years. If it had not it would not have received as many Government contracts as it has. You have to show stability, profitability. But SpaceX takes most of that profit from current year and reinvests it into next year new capitol equipment and R&D activities.They also try to limit tax by spending it as much as possible on growing the company's capabilities each year such as the launch of Starlink sats prior to them being able to make money. But at some point Starlink will make more in revenue than all of Starlinks's costs. And that may be rather significantly more than Starlink's costs. With this year just the deployment of sats 14 launches and counting. SpaceX has spent ~$675M on Starlink sat deployments (14 launches this year) plus money on the Gateways they have been installing all over. But most of the unspent profits goes to increasing SpaceX's cash reserves to handle the ever larger fluctuations in the revenue stream vs the constant costs incurred. With Starlink already looking to be quite popular with the public and governments. This includes even local city, county, and state (province) size, where because of some rural sparse communications capabilities offers cheaper and more robust communications than they have currently. This could increase the company's valuation significantly more than the current $46B.The significant difference between a space company and a consumer products company is the profit margins on revenues. Being high volume Tesla profit margins on it's products is actually small at 5% or less. At the moment it looks to be almost .5%. Being low volume and high risk, SpaceX has a high profit margin for its products and services of 10 to 20%. Although Starlink in the future is likely to dilute the profit margin to under 10% (maybe). Thus SpaceX makes 10 to 20X the profit per $1 of revenue than Tesla.Now some analysis of what a valuation of $46B for SpaceX means in relationship to revenue. The usual is the valuation is (but not always) that the valuation is the total of revenue over a 10 year period. Also the profit margins and other factors also are involved to some degree. SpaceX current revenue is ~$2B/yr so this would suggest that in 10 years (2030) SpaceX revenue would reach ~$7B/yr. If the growth is somewhat linear. Although it may not be. And may have a steep incline just prior to 2030. It can also grow quickly and then stagnate out. And thus valuation is mostly a studied calculated statistical based guess and not guarantee. Until recently the fairly flat growth of SpaceX revenue over the next 10 years has put the valuation at near just a 10X of the current year revenue. But something has changed in SpaceX's valuation outlook by the investment evaluation community. That SpaceX is projected to grow and very rapidly. A factor of ~300% in 10 years.
Asteroid mining remains the biggest long term opportunity of all. Impossible BSE (Before Starship Era), an immense opportunity ASE (After Starship Era).
Quote from: M.E.T. on 11/27/2020 04:44 amAsteroid mining remains the biggest long term opportunity of all. Impossible BSE (Before Starship Era), an immense opportunity ASE (After Starship Era).I see this as as more important for martian economic development than for earthing Musk's asset growth. But then, if things work out, it might be hard to tell them apart.
