Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars

[Lar]

It's a widespread myth that company directors have a legal obligation to increase shareholder value. There is no such law.

Yes.  Tesla giving away its patents is also non commercial. But matches its mission statement. He’s successful doing things differently to other companies.

I think you misunderstand Tesla "giving away its patents".

A party is "acting in good faith" for so long as such party and its related or affiliated companies have not:

asserted, helped others assert or had a financial stake in any assertion of (i) any patent or other intellectual property right against Tesla or (ii) any patent right against a third party for its use of technologies relating to electric vehicles or related equipment;
challenged, helped others challenge, or had a financial stake in any challenge to any Tesla patent; or
marketed or sold any knock-off product (e.g., a product created by imitating or copying the design or appearance of a Tesla product or which suggests an association with or endorsement by Tesla) or provided any material assistance to another party doing so."

https://www.tesla.com/about/legal#patent-pledge

In essence, Tesla's patents are only free to use if they don't enforce their patents against Tesla. If let's say that Ford owns part of Rivian, and Tesla builds a car that infringes on a patent by Rivian. And let's also say that Rivian sues Tesla while Ford built electric cars using Tesla patents, their investment in said cars and technology could be shut down by Tesla.

In essence, Tesla is saying that their technology is free to use if they can use everybody's else's technology free of charge. This is as transactional as Tesla paying auto makers money for licensing and them paying Tesla money for licensing.

I think you are reading this far too restrictively. Suppose I am a very small automaker (think kit car builder level) that wants to do electric vehicles. Even if I never patent anything, the patents Tesla has are free for me to make use of, just as long as I'm not a jerk about it by using their stuff and then helping competitors try to wreck their patents.

If I had to trade, I would first have to patent something of considerable value and then trade. Kit automakers hardly ever do that....I know IBM does this all the time and a large part of its patent portfolio is there to serve as currency for patents it wants to trade for.

So maybe it's not a no strings attached giveaway but it's closer to a giveaway than a straight up trade, I think.

[OTV Booster]

That starts with the assumption that Elon Musk selling his shares somehow destroys the value of Tesla, and I don't see how that is true.

It is true that investors do watch to see when and how much executives in companies are selling their company stock, but Elon Musk has been very public and transparent about why (and when) he would sell off Tesla stock. And if he does it in small chunks on a regular basis, like insiders are supposed to do, then investors should not be scared off by that.

Oh I don't think Tesla's shareholders would leave because Musk is selling stock. They'd leave if they thought he was handing it over to someone else, putting his focus 90% on SpaceX or Mars. That's why he has such unseemly MASSIVE benefits linked to sticking with Tesla and growing Tesla.

Tim Cook of Apple is in the news today because it is reported he is focused on defining the next generation of leadership at Apple. He has been in charge for 10 years, but most of his senior management is likely too old to take over from him.

Elon Musk needs to be doing the same for Tesla. One of the indicators of a strong company is that they have deep management capabilities. When Steve Jobs first took a leave of absence from Apple, Apple continued. And when Steve Jobs resigned, Tim Cook was already a known entity. Not the same as Jobs, but as of today Apple is the most valuable company in the world, so obviously Tim Cook is doing something right.

Tesla needs the same from Elon Musk, that he put a management transition plan in place. And Musk knows this, and Musk knows that his ability to extract $Billions from Tesla is dependent on how well Tesla is doing. So I think Elon Musk will have an plan to gradually withdraw from the company - which if you think about it, he isn't a 100% full time CEO anyways. Never has been. He has always had SpaceX, and add onto that The Boring Company, Neuralink, Starlink and Starship, it is obvious that there are capable people at Tesla already.

So I'm thinking Elon Musk will have already pulled back from Tesla to some degree by the time he starts liquidating his shares to support Mars colonization efforts.

What I think will happen is that Elon Musk will set up a nonprofit whose goal is to support Mars colonization. That allows him to take in not only his own money, but the money of others too (I know I would donate)...

I think that stretches his own dollar much further, it's a good idea.

But it's still this non-profit putting money into SpaceX or any other Mars company, with the same issues as him putting his personal money into SpaceX or any other Mars company.

Not the same at all.

Tesla is a public company, and non-core activities get outsized attention. So if Tesla is doing something that will obviously lose money (like colonizing Mars) Tesla could suffer from that.

SpaceX is a private company, but it is capitalized by private investors. They have already outlined the value proposition for the investors, and making a change to that could damage their ability to raise additional funding in the future.

A non-profit entity is the cleanest solution, and it has numerous advantages.

Back to Tesla, I can no longer imagine Tesla not doing something on the Moon and Mars, because of what they already build and Tesla shareholder desire to keep Musk integral to Tesla.

Sure, they could set up a special division to produce space hardware. But it would be more like the government contractors I've worked for, where it is a small division that leverages the technology of the whole company. Such entities don't need investment, they just need contracts.

However those are hard to sustain when the work is not steady, and there are plenty of existing aerospace specialty companies that can already do the same - and they could just buy parts and technology from Tesla to incorporate into their own designs.

I'm not seeing a valid business reason for Tesla setting up a specialty space division. Not yet at least.

I agree that Tesla has no reason to set up a space division at this time. I don't see a compelling reason to consider a vehicle factory on Mars until demand there rises to a level where the investment has some sane relationship to shipping costs of knockdown vehicles. This will be a long time.


What I do see is the potential value of making PV and batteries there, if the technology works out. A big 'if'. Somebody threw out the factoid that it takes a year for a PV to produce the same amount of power it took to make it in the first place and there is more to payback than power. I suspect this might be for state of the art PV, but it is unclear. The Mars market for power infrastructure is more robust than for vehicles so ISTM to be more ripe for long term investment.


I doubt there is any short term reason for most companies to invest in Mars infrastructure. It only makes sense if they look 5-10 annual reports down the road. Thus, a non-profit may well be the linchpin.


I still have to wonder if Tesla has a few engineers noodling martian power ISRU.

[Coastal Ron]

I agree that Tesla has no reason to set up a space division at this time. I don't see a compelling reason to consider a vehicle factory on Mars until demand there rises to a level where the investment has some sane relationship to shipping costs of knockdown vehicles. This will be a long time.

For cars, it will likely be a century or more before they are making them on Mars. Factories require cities and infrastructure, neither of which will exist for a while on Mars.

What I do see is the potential value of making PV and batteries there, if the technology works out.

A century or more down the road. Factories require so much infrastructure to build and operate that it will be cheaper to ship what you need from Earth.

A big 'if'. Somebody threw out the factoid that it takes a year for a PV to produce the same amount of power it took to make it in the first place and there is more to payback than power. I suspect this might be for state of the art PV, but it is unclear. The Mars market for power infrastructure is more robust than for vehicles so ISTM to be more ripe for long term investment.

Mars will have an energy deficit from day one, and every new colonist will require the addition of some new amount of energy. It will be cheaper to import energy intensive products than it will to make them on Mars.

I doubt there is any short term reason for most companies to invest in Mars infrastructure. It only makes sense if they look 5-10 annual reports down the road. Thus, a non-profit may well be the linchpin.

For the foreseeable future Mars will require "stuff" without the need to pay for most of it. It won't start out as the largest non-profit, but it will end up being a rather big one - setting up a new world takes a lot of time and money.

I still have to wonder if Tesla has a few engineers noodling martian power ISRU.

The Mars Colonization non-profit can contract with Tesla to build what they need. That is pretty standard contracting. Or if Tesla engineers want to volunteer their time after work, that is a popular way of donating too... 

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>
For cars, it will likely be a century or more before they are making them on Mars. Factories require cities and infrastructure, neither of which will exist for a while on Mars.
<snip>

Disagree. Think Musk will set up a low volume vehicle production line on Mars after there is over 500 colonist/settler. Something like the early Tesla Roadster hand builds.

Maybe starting with complete knocked-down kits then progressing to semi knocked-down kits. Fully assembled vehicles takes up a lot shipping volume and requires specialized handling.

Mars will need some capability to make and refurbished some parts for vehicles instead of waiting for parts with every transit window.

[GregA]

I agree that Tesla has no reason to set up a space division at this time. I don't see a compelling reason to consider a vehicle factory on Mars until demand there rises to a level where the investment has some sane relationship to shipping costs of knockdown vehicles. This will be a long time.

What I do see is the potential value of making PV and batteries there, if the technology works out. A big 'if'. Somebody threw out the factoid that it takes a year for a PV to produce the same amount of power it took to make it in the first place and there is more to payback than power. I suspect this might be for state of the art PV, but it is unclear. The Mars market for power infrastructure is more robust than for vehicles so ISTM to be more ripe for long term investment.

I should be clear when I said Tesla should go to Mars, making cars there was the last thing on my mind (because it’s the last step).

They should be sending Glass. Batteries. Solar panels. Tiles. Their other products. Maybe the battery packs for Martian excavators. (A Mars Car is possible.)

But I do think making a “Tesla MiniFactory” well within a decade isn’t a bad idea... maybe starting as a fully automated tent based unpressurised (sealed with slight positive pressure) outdoor factory. Tents like those used for model 3 production and starship now.

Gigafactory 1 doesn’t make cars, it makes batteries, battery packs, and some car components. Gigafactory 2 makes solar panels, tiles and solar tiles. It’s easy to misinterpret “Tesla factory on Mars” as “Car factory on Mars” but it’s more fundamental.

MiniFactory Mars, once raw materials are being mined, probably couldn’t make cars. (Edit: though it could assemble them). What they make would have to be limited to the materials at hand, or those added to materials brought from earth or recycled. Eventually they could make glass, steel, batteries, solar panels, tiles, bricks, heat pumps, air filters.... but lots of mining is required first.

Let me turn down the dial further.

Musk wants Mars to be self sufficient as soon as humanly possible. So he’ll want a good investment of people on Mars investigating local resources to see what can be made locally with them, then coordinating the start of mining activities and factories to produce materials. And recycling raptors etc that aren’t flying home.

With or without Tesla’s involvement of course. Musk could invest directly, or via a Mars charity, or via SpaceX. Perhaps the Boring Company making tunnels for settlers and outputting bricks is a first step.

It would be better for Musk to do it with Tesla. I wonder what portion of shareholders would invest for that distant future.

But if Tesla makes Mars Cars they’ll need to be shipped from Earth. And not sold at half price. But only doing that would only be selling to Mars, not building a Mars future, perhaps that would be insignificant?

[Coastal Ron]

<snip>
For cars, it will likely be a century or more before they are making them on Mars. Factories require cities and infrastructure, neither of which will exist for a while on Mars.
<snip>

Disagree. Think Musk will set up a low volume vehicle production line on Mars after there is over 500 colonist/settler. Something like the early Tesla Roadster hand builds.

Maybe starting with complete knocked-down kits then progressing to semi knocked-down kits. Fully assembled vehicles takes up a lot shipping volume and requires specialized handling.

For those that have never worked in manufacturing lets clarify some terms:

- Production lines are making parts
- Assembly lines are assembling the parts made on production lines

So of course stuff will be assembled on Mars from kits. Pretty much everyone is assuming that is how stuff will get sent to Mars.

My comment was regarding MAKING parts on Mars. In order to do that, from raw materials, you need cities and infrastructure.

For instance, pick a commodity item like a screw, aluminum foil, duct tape, etc., and go through all of the steps it takes to get the raw material, process it, and turn it into the finished part. We have mature supply chains for stuff like that here on Earth, but on Mars they will have to be created AND paid for. Not easy.

Mars will need some capability to make and refurbished some parts for vehicles instead of waiting for parts with every transit window.

Of course Mars colonists will repair their own stuff. The analogy I like to use is that Mars colonists will be like sailors on ships at sea, where they have to be self-reliant to a great degree. But if a chip fails on a circuit board they likely won't be able to repair the board, and they will rely on replacements that are shipped in from Earth.

[Slarty1080]

There has been some talk of manufacturing on Mars, but IMO that will be a long way off. First will be ISRU and after that assembly from parts sent from Earth. After basic ISRU for water, oxygen, nitrogen and propellants, they will need a big investment in mining, chemical processing and even more power to generate the raw materials needed for everything else. This will be a mammoth task needing vast investment over a long period.

It will eventually be necessary to access a wide range of different ores, but initially a single process to extract a lot of useful materials from readily available regolith would be sensible. This will include a lot of kit, even more solar power, magnetic separation, calcining, sieving, grinding, water extraction, pressure swing adsorption, centrifugal separators and more.

This would generate a range of basic raw materials such as Al2O3, SiO2, MgO, Fe2O3, Ca(OH)2 and H2SO4 among others. These will provide reliable quality feed stocks for yet further material processing. Power generation will be a major bottle neck for years and if at all possible I suggest that production of solar panels or at least parts of panels on Mars would be hugely useful.

It will look more like a large industrial complex /oil refinery than a city.

[OTV Booster]

<snip>
For cars, it will likely be a century or more before they are making them on Mars. Factories require cities and infrastructure, neither of which will exist for a while on Mars.
<snip>

Disagree. Think Musk will set up a low volume vehicle production line on Mars after there is over 500 colonist/settler. Something like the early Tesla Roadster hand builds.

Maybe starting with complete knocked-down kits then progressing to semi knocked-down kits. Fully assembled vehicles takes up a lot shipping volume and requires specialized handling.

For those that have never worked in manufacturing lets clarify some terms:

- Production lines are making parts
- Assembly lines are assembling the parts made on production lines

So of course stuff will be assembled on Mars from kits. Pretty much everyone is assuming that is how stuff will get sent to Mars.

My comment was regarding MAKING parts on Mars. In order to do that, from raw materials, you need cities and infrastructure.

For instance, pick a commodity item like a screw, aluminum foil, duct tape, etc., and go through all of the steps it takes to get the raw material, process it, and turn it into the finished part. We have mature supply chains for stuff like that here on Earth, but on Mars they will have to be created AND paid for. Not easy.

Mars will need some capability to make and refurbished some parts for vehicles instead of waiting for parts with every transit window.

Of course Mars colonists will repair their own stuff. The analogy I like to use is that Mars colonists will be like sailors on ships at sea, where they have to be self-reliant to a great degree. But if a chip fails on a circuit board they likely won't be able to repair the board, and they will rely on replacements that are shipped in from Earth.

Thanks for the production/assembly breakdown. It is important.


Using your example of common items and the supply/infrastructure chain behind them, one thing they all need, and we all agree on, is power. Watch your eye, I'm about to wave my arms.


There is absolutely no way to predict cutting edge technology progress beyond ~1 year. Trends are a little bit easier but that rug can get yanked out easily enough. So, sticking my neck out just a little, trends in PV have been in cost and power density. I'm not sure that anybody has been looking at ease of manufacturing, which has a different meaning on Mars. This is where I speculate that Tesla might be noodling Mars PV & battery production.


Over in the mars power options thread and elsewhere, there has been discussion of thing like ISRU for making polymer sheets with the PV material coming from earth, 3D PV printing, salt batteries etc. Maybe none of this will pan out, but one thing that seems to be a constant is, wherever Musk dips his fingers, things get stood on their head.


If Musk thinks power infrastructure is the key to unlock Mars, as I do, his fingers will be deep in it. Tesla is not about to drop everything and pivot, but basic R&D on potential new markets used to be a piece of every large corporation. Nobody, including stockholders and the FTC, can fault Tesla for picking up an old tradition.


This is all total speculation. Oops sorry. Is your eye ok?

[Coastal Ron]

Using your example of common items and the supply/infrastructure chain behind them, one thing they all need, and we all agree on, is power. Watch your eye, I'm about to wave my arms.

The amount of power available is one of those precious commodities that will determine the load carrying capacity of Mars colonies.

There is absolutely no way to predict cutting edge technology progress beyond ~1 year.

While it is true we can't predict what new technologies will appear tomorrow, the amount of time it takes to utilize new technologies is predictable based on how much it costs to make, what size the market is, how much (and how fervent) demand there is.

For instance, if there was a new type of internal combustion engine discovered that was 50% more fuel efficient, it would still take years before it could be incorporated in production vehicles due to the testing and tooling lead-times. Oh, and also who holds the IP (intellectual property) and what type of licensing they have.

So, sticking my neck out just a little, trends in PV have been in cost and power density. I'm not sure that anybody has been looking at ease of manufacturing, which has a different meaning on Mars. This is where I speculate that Tesla might be noodling Mars PV & battery production.

As of 2019 the global solar PV panel market size was estimated to be $115B, with a 4.3% projected growth through 2027.

Now imagine if a solar PV manufacturer could shave 1% off of their costs, and keep their prices the same. Can you imagine how much additional profit that would be? A lot. And my point is that YES THEY ARE ALREADY LOOKING for how to reduce their costs. Every day. Don't assume companies are lazy about costs.

As to doing any manufacturing on Mars, apparently I'm still not explaining the totality of what it takes to just open a small, simple factory. It takes an existing community, because factories don't run themselves. Not only do you need people to work on the production lines, you need the army of people that support everything like facilities, the manufacturing equipment itself, and all the people that support those people. It literally takes a village.

Solar PV manufacturing is one of those high tech areas of manufacturing. It sits near the pinnacle of the technology chain, which means it needs highly trained people to not only build them, but to operate them. As a related example, building a semiconductor fabrication plant these days costs about $3-4 BILLION. And that is here on Earth. And they rely on processes that were designed for one Earth gravity.

So waving your hands and saying that we'll just pick up a complex factory and drop it on Mars, yes, that pokes my eye because it is so far fetched...

Over in the mars power options thread and elsewhere, there has been discussion of thing like ISRU for making polymer sheets with the PV material coming from earth, 3D PV printing, salt batteries etc. Maybe none of this will pan out, but one thing that seems to be a constant is, wherever Musk dips his fingers, things get stood on their head.

I think it is important to remember that each ship to Mars is carrying important "stuff". And while the saying "give someone a fish and you feed them for a day, teach them how to fish and you feed them for life" applies here, Mars is pretty inhospitable, and there may be nothing simple about "fishing" on Mars for easy ISRU. Which means we'll be the primary lifeline to Mars for generations to come, not because they don't want to be independent, but because Mars is resource poor for human life, and it will take generations to overcome that.

If Musk thinks power infrastructure is the key to unlock Mars, as I do, his fingers will be deep in it.

Musk knows it is easier to build rockets on Earth and send them to Mars instead of building them on Mars and sending them to Earth. Do you see the difference?

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

A small point about PV cells. It is not important to make the ultimate high efficiency cells. But just to be able to make cells of any efficiency from ISRU materials. The supper cheap commercial cells (ones in those very cheap little outdoor lights) are actually painted on a plastic substrate. The key is the materials refinement that allows the ability to make cheap (low efficiency) cells. Once you can manufacture such then even though it can take 10X more surface area to produce the same power does not matter.

BTW plastics would be an outgrowth of the propellants manufacture in that plastics can be made from Methane. It takes power and multiple chemical steps but is doable. The excess O2 and excess CH4, one for the habs and one into lubricants and plastics.

Add silicon refinement and plain clear/tinted glass manufacture supporting the manufacture of the protective covers over the PV as well as windows in the habs, an durable cups,glasses, plates.

There is a chain of do this, then this, then this... Each complementing or building on the previous achievements/capabilities. As more capabilities emerge, less is needed from Earth. Take plastics. Electrical wiring inside the hab needs insulation. But just shipping large diameter wire without insulation can lower the mass and volume of the shipment from Earth. It is an easy process to do wire pulling starting with a large diameter wire that is pulled to create a smaller diameter. The equipment tooling is simple. Then once the needed wire diameter is made the plastics made from the excess CH4 is used to coat the wire for insulation.

There are a lot of examples of how being able to supplant something along the line of the manufacture of a finished product can lower the mass from Earth without being overly complicated or difficult to achieve by the early colony.

It is this bootstrapping that Musk is good at. KISS

[OTV Booster]

Ron,

About the only thing you said that bothered me was:

"...YES THEY ARE ALREADY LOOKING for how to reduce their costs. Every day. Don't assume companies are lazy about costs."

The assumption is yours. I spent a couple years doing industrial. Mechanical, electrical, plumbing, steam, yada yada. And about 28-30 years doing schedule C. So I have no assumptions about laziness or cutting costs.

The point I was trying to make is that what it takes to cut costs using ISRU on Mars is literally a world different than doing it on Earth. OldAtlas covered much of what was rattlin round my brain but rather than go into specifics, I just skipped through the overview.

Believe me, I have few illusions about the difficulties of setting up fabrication on Mars. Ya can't just drive over to IBT for a replacement bearing.

Power, habitat, propellant and food have be be locally produced or not even Musk, Bezoes, Warren Buffet and NASA pooling resources will be able to afford anything more that a glorified outpost. I think abundant power is the linchpin to a solid kickstart and hauling all that PV from earth puts a decided crimp on growth.

As you say, the lead times are long. Again, that's why I wonder about Tesla looking at it now.

[GregA]

Believe me, I have few illusions about the difficulties of setting up fabrication on Mars. Ya can't just drive over to IBT for a replacement bearing.

Power, habitat, propellant and food have be be locally produced or not even Musk, Bezoes, Warren Buffet and NASA pooling resources will be able to afford anything more that a glorified outpost. I think abundant power is the linchpin to a solid kickstart and hauling all that PV from earth puts a decided crimp on growth.

As you say, the lead times are long. Again, that's why I wonder about Tesla looking at it now.

Yes the most important but most difficult challenges will be found in the slow ramp up to producing items locally. Ron is right this is huge even for the smallest factory.

If Musk's history tells us anything it's that he WILL try to jump start that. So many interwoven dependencies will be difficult to untangle - or perhaps it can't be untangled and needs to be worked on as a whole with massive funding and innovation (unless there's decades to let it slowly evolve). He wants self sufficiency very quickly.

[Slarty1080]

Believe me, I have few illusions about the difficulties of setting up fabrication on Mars. Ya can't just drive over to IBT for a replacement bearing.

Power, habitat, propellant and food have be be locally produced or not even Musk, Bezoes, Warren Buffet and NASA pooling resources will be able to afford anything more that a glorified outpost. I think abundant power is the linchpin to a solid kickstart and hauling all that PV from earth puts a decided crimp on growth.

As you say, the lead times are long. Again, that's why I wonder about Tesla looking at it now.

Yes the most important but most difficult challenges will be found in the slow ramp up to producing items locally. Ron is right this is huge even for the smallest factory.

If Musk's history tells us anything it's that he WILL try to jump start that. So many interwoven dependencies will be difficult to untangle - or perhaps it can't be untangled and needs to be worked on as a whole with massive funding and innovation (unless there's decades to let it slowly evolve). He wants self sufficiency very quickly.

Agreed it would be a massive undertaking and would take time but the rewards of minimising the power bottle neck are huge. The economics of producing solar cells on Mars is likely to be very different from producing them on Earth. Cost and efficiency would not be as important as they are on Earth and degradation by oxygen, moisture or high temperatures would not be such an issue either. But using available materials would be key.

There are lots of ways of making solar cells and most have been rejected because they are not economic or efficient on Earth. On Mars the whole calculation is different. They are unlikely to attempt to build a high tech silicon solar cell manufacturing facility at least initially. Better to make less efficient cells with what's easily available supplemented by imports from Earth where this makes sense.

It might even make sense to make a composite type of cell where some part of the cell was manufactured on Earth and later combined with electrode / glass / support materials made on Mars. There are a lot of options available and high tech silicon solar cells are probably not the best to reproduce on Mars.

[spacenut]

Don't forget ammonia and nitrates will have to be made or collected from waste and waste water for plant growth for food. 

Power first, then fuel, then water and food, then mining and production of metals and chemicals before manufacturing can begin.  This is all to make the colony self sufficient ASAP. 

It is going to take lots of power first for anything.  Tesla makes solar panels and batteries that Musk's assets can send.  However, I think small scale nuclear power should also be factored especially if paid for by NASA. 

Once return fuel is being mass produced, then water for the colony, potable water, water for raising fish, and water for crops.  This should be over produced in case of any supply problems.  This will probably require ice mining (again Tesla for the electric vehicles). 

Production of agricultural chemicals like ammonia and nitrogen based fertilizers.  This will require a lot of power, more Tesla solar panels and again small scale nuclear power plants sent from earth. 

Finally mining, using Martian basalt, iron, aluminum, or any other metals that can be made into products.  Again Tesla vehicles and equipment.  Then they have to have smelting equipment to extract the metals from the Martian rocks and earth.  More power consumption.

Musk may be able to get people and equipment to Mars, but it is going to cost billions for a colony before it gets self sufficient.  I see Starlink and Tesla as Musk's two resources.  But this is finite.  Musk is going to have to convince NASA and other international players to help.  First he has to get to and return from Mars showing that it is possible. 

[Coastal Ron]

The point I was trying to make is that what it takes to cut costs using ISRU on Mars is literally a world different than doing it on Earth.

Provide examples.

OldAtlas covered much of what was rattlin round my brain but rather than go into specifics, I just skipped through the overview.

I thought their post was a good one, especially since it took me back to my early days where I ran a raw material warehouse that hosted our copper wire reduction facility. We made copper contacts on cold heading machines, and we drew down our own wire from copper raw stock we bought from Anaconda.

So when I hear talk about doing this type of stuff on Mars, I remember the number of people it took to do that, not only for set up and running, but all of the support staff. Then you have to find housing for them and their families (if they brought any), and the support for those people in housing, food, power, recreation, etc. You know, normal life for a factory worker.

I think one of the things that Mars colonist won't be is factory workers. I hope there are tool & die workers that go, since fixing stuff will be important and being able to make metal stuff will be critical. But there will be some job categories that will literally have to be grown on Mars, and until they get excess labor there will be some products they won't be able to make on Mars.

Power, habitat, propellant and food have be be locally produced or not even Musk, Bezoes, Warren Buffet and NASA pooling resources will be able to afford anything more that a glorified outpost.

Agreed. Though the method of generating power, habitats, and food doesn't have to be created on Mars. Power systems can be shipped to Mars, habitat material can be shipped to Mars, and food production equipment can be shipped to Mars. But generating power on Mars, and growing food on Mars, will be required.

I think abundant power is the linchpin to a solid kickstart and hauling all that PV from earth puts a decided crimp on growth.

Mars is a very cold planet for humans, so power will be critical. And for the same amount of energy that it takes to haul a PV plant from Earth, and the time and energy it takes to get it built, tested and running, it will be cheaper and quicker to just ship PV from Earth. Prices continue to fall, so why would you want to raise prices for them?

Remember Elon Musk plans on expanding the fleet of Starships going to Mars each 2-year cycle, so its not like there will be a lack of relatively inexpensive transport capability.

There are situations where giving someone a fish is better than teaching them how to fish... 

[Nomadd]

Ron,
About the only thing you said that bothered me was:
"...YES THEY ARE ALREADY LOOKING for how to reduce their costs. Every day. Don't assume companies are lazy about costs."
The assumption is yours. I spent a couple years doing industrial. Mechanical, electrical, plumbing, steam, yada yada. And about 28-30 years doing schedule C. So I have no assumptions about laziness or cutting costs.
The point I was trying to make is that what it takes to cut costs using ISRU on Mars is literally a world different than doing it on Earth. OldAtlas covered much of what was rattlin round my brain but rather than go into specifics, I just skipped through the overview.
Believe me, I have few illusions about the difficulties of setting up fabrication on Mars. Ya can't just drive over to IBT for a replacement bearing.
Power, habitat, propellant and food have be be locally produced or not even Musk, Bezoes, Warren Buffet and NASA pooling resources will be able to afford anything more that a glorified outpost. I think abundant power is the linchpin to a solid kickstart and hauling all that PV from earth puts a decided crimp on growth.
As you say, the lead times are long. Again, that's why I wonder about Tesla looking at it now.

It's not always the goal to cut costs. Anybody who's ever found a more efficient way to do something just to upset some supervisor who only sees that as justifying less money for his department next year knows that. The reason so many companies are lazy about cutting costs is because it's not in their interest to do so. *cough*ula*cough*.
 But when the company is trying to do the most they can on a fixed budget, it's different.

[spacenut]

When I was working for a natural gas company, I did the capital budget for our district, since most of the capital budget was in pipeline construction.  Local manager had us put everything we could into the budget.  Then at the budget meetings, they always asked what we could cut.  We had to have a cut list.  Sometimes we got most of what we wanted, sometimes we didn't.  If the chief financial officer of the company gave us a limit, we spent to the limit.  Of course we were a corporation. 

Don't know how Musk does SpaceX, but Tesla is a corporation. 

[Slarty1080]

When I was working for a natural gas company, I did the capital budget for our district, since most of the capital budget was in pipeline construction.  Local manager had us put everything we could into the budget.  Then at the budget meetings, they always asked what we could cut.  We had to have a cut list.  Sometimes we got most of what we wanted, sometimes we didn't.  If the chief financial officer of the company gave us a limit, we spent to the limit.  Of course we were a corporation. 

Don't know how Musk does SpaceX, but Tesla is a corporation.

Tesla is a corporation but it's not a run of the mill corporation. The prime goal of most corporations is to make money, the prime goal of Tesla is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. I suspect the ethos at Tesla is also a bit different to most corporations. Musk has a knack of picking really good people, no doubt there are internal politics, but I suspect they play out a bit differently.

[ncb1397]

When I was working for a natural gas company, I did the capital budget for our district, since most of the capital budget was in pipeline construction.  Local manager had us put everything we could into the budget.  Then at the budget meetings, they always asked what we could cut.  We had to have a cut list.  Sometimes we got most of what we wanted, sometimes we didn't.  If the chief financial officer of the company gave us a limit, we spent to the limit.  Of course we were a corporation. 

Don't know how Musk does SpaceX, but Tesla is a corporation.

Tesla is a corporation but it's not a run of the mill corporation. The prime goal of most corporations is to make money, the prime goal of Tesla is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy. I suspect the ethos at Tesla is also a bit different to most corporations. Musk has a knack of picking really good people, no doubt there are internal politics, but I suspect they play out a bit differently.

That is a mission statement. Lots of companies have one. Here is Google's

Our company mission is to organize the world's information and make it universally accessible and useful.

https://www.google.com/search/howsearchworks/mission/#:~:text=Our%20company%20mission%20is%20to,a%20wide%20variety%20of%20sources.

[GregA]

Tesla is a corporation but it's not a run of the mill corporation. The prime goal of most corporations is to make money, the prime goal of Tesla is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.

It was "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable transport". Then "to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy".

Although it's closer to his purpose of Mars colonisation, Tesla's mission is probably more fundamentally ... "to prevent the world falling into another dark age.".
 
Musk: “There’s likely to be another dark ages... particularly if there’s a third world war,” (and Mars is vital to humanity's survival)

He jokes about the zombie apocalypse pretty often. But on a serious note if we do get larger scale riots and social disorder, a home with Tesla Solar, batteries, cars, and a Starlink connection will have some short term buffer, and perhaps superchargers will keep working on solar too.

Tesla's mission will expand to include Mars.