Musk's asset accrual and paying for Mars

[jpo234]

ULA resorting to this now, are they? Desperate to stave off the inevitable.

What a piece of work.

All Is Fair in Love and War

[Slarty1080]

ULA resorting to this now, are they? Desperate to stave off the inevitable.

What a piece of work.

Musk probably has more to fear from the US corporations and certain elements of the US Government than China. Hey Elon take your foot off ULA's neck or we will arrange for some legislation that will make your work with SpaceX really difficult.

[OTV Booster]

ULA resorting to this now, are they? Desperate to stave off the inevitable.

What a piece of work.

Musk probably has more to fear from the US corporations and certain elements of the US Government than China. Hey Elon take your foot off ULA's neck or we will arrange for some legislation that will make your work with SpaceX really difficult.

Nothing breeds success like success. If the government wants to throttle SX they had better do it soon. If SX does a smash bang job on HLS any attempt to throttle
 them would generate a lot of pushback. Hell, the Boeing behemoth is so flat footed clumsy it can't even get in on the ground floor of HLS, possibly even with insider coaching.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Several observations.

Elon is the bear and China knows it. If they poke Elon will close shop in China. It will hurt but not kill Tesla. Else if Elon allows political manipulation it is a definite total slow death.

Boeing is but 2X SpaceX market cap at current. So SpaceX is much larger than ULA both in the economy and in influence with the DOD. The booster with the most flights. The booster that does 2+ flights per month. The booster with the largest payload capability....

ULA poked and was ignored.

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>
Conversely, I think as Starlink becomes operational, China will have huge leverage over Elon. Ie. "Hey Elon, if you want Tesla to do business in China, you need to do x with Starlink." I think it would be best for Elon to divest his Tesla ownership at this time (before the "window closes" to use his phrase). He will then have a pot of money for Mars, and also he can't be blackmailed by China due to Tesla's China operations. I know Elon is not going to sell his shares, he just wont.
<snip>

You are under the mistaken idea that China have any option other than Tesla for a mass market BEV. Tesla was invited to set up a Chinese car plant that is wholly Tesla own with extremely cheap financing and cheap land (that was originally for a NIO car plant).

Reason why is that the various Chinese car makers could only produces mass market cars that got about 150 km range with slow charging and sub-par performance. Which the Chinese consumers fail to adapted.

The Chinese government was desperate for mass market car solution that have consumer appeal. Due to the heavy smog hovering over most Chinese cities and their own plans to have millions of zero emission cars on the road in a short period of time. Unfortunately there were no domestic solutions after the government spend billions on hundreds of domestic car makers. The Chinese government need Tesla more than Tesla need China.

Once Tesla have a large slice of the Chinese car market. It will be very hard for the Chinese government to annoy Musk. Since Tesla will be a big part of the Chinese ground transport system. There is probably software hardwired into the various Chinese Tesla products to permanently bricked them as well.

Fun factoid. The only used electric cars available in China currently are Tesla cars, because they are the only ones that consumers will buy.

[OTV Booster]

Several observations.

Elon is the bear and China knows it. If they poke Elon will close shop in China. It will hurt but not kill Tesla. Else if Elon allows political manipulation it is a definite total slow death.

Boeing is but 2X SpaceX market cap at current. So SpaceX is much larger than ULA both in the economy and in influence with the DOD. The booster with the most flights. The booster that does 2+ flights per month. The booster with the largest payload capability....

ULA poked and was ignored.

Yes, it is difficult to get rid of the Dane once you pay the Danegeld. My apologies to our Danish cousins.


If the Chinese were to squeeze Elon and Elon said "Screw you" and leave, what is the outcome? Well, he can't pack a factory into his overnight bag. At best he could scramble all the logic and even smash some crucial machines. My bet is the Chinese have every lick of software and firmware, along with drawings of most if not all of the hardware. They would eventually be marketing the "Tesra". My apologies to our Chinese cousins.


On this side of the pond Tesla would take a major hit on stock price and profitability. Elon would not be able to hit the numbers for his bonuses and it would be a significant ding on his personal wealth. Even if the selfless act that lead up to this made him a hero, I expect his role in Tesla would be much diminished.


It would be really, really nice if none of this happens.

[DistantTemple]

TL/DR ... Elon's companies employ some 50K Americans, many in high quality jobs, and all his businesses promise to advance the US as a leader in their high tec fields, and in engineering, two areas that the west has been "loosing" to the far east in recent decades. Many further supply chain jobs (despite vertical integration) should also be counted. Tesla and SpaceX must also have a noticeable positive effect on the US's balance of payments.

The current administration has even praised Elon, despite Tesla's mission being something that has been otherwise deleted from US gov policy, and antagonistic to "*#&$@ digs coal". Elon has been "allowed" to develop his Shanghai plant despite the continuous rhetoric against China. Nothing even disparaging has come from USG about it.

A change to Democrats is likely to champion Tesla, including solar and batteries... and bask in the glory of SX's racing success.

Boeing has machine gunned both of its own feet. ULA is tiny. I bet SpaceX could do an "emergency" DOD launch in 2 weeks, by bumping other customers, an unheard of  capability!

So IMO ULA will not get enough lawmakers to vote for oppressing or strangling SpaceX. Elon has Canadian citizenship. (and SA). Anyone with the slightest care for the US has to see that Elon is extremely good for the US.

[DistantTemple]

Shanghai will shortly be 1/5 of Tesla's vehicle and battery plants. Once Giga Berlin is up and running, Tesla could spin Shanghai off in some way to a Chinese company, by choice or under duress from China. It would not be against Tesla's goals for TeslaChina to continue independently. However without a valid legal basis for any such split/takeover, Autopilot, FSD, OTA updates and all further tec improvements would be cut off. Quite quickly that would vastly reduce Shanghai's value to China. Also it would interfere with China's trading relationships around the world.

[Zed_Noir]

Shanghai will shortly be 1/5 of Tesla's vehicle and battery plants. Once Giga Berlin is up and running, Tesla could spin Shanghai off in some way to a Chinese company, by choice or under duress from China. It would not be against Tesla's goals for TeslaChina to continue independently. However without a valid legal basis for any such split/takeover, Autopilot, FSD, OTA updates and all further tec improvements would be cut off. Quite quickly that would vastly reduce Shanghai's value to China. Also it would interfere with China's trading relationships around the world.

There is no way that the Tesla GigaShanghai could supply anything more than a small fraction of the number of vehicles for the Chinese government's zero emission vehicles target. The facility got a maximum annual run rate of 500k for the production of Model 3 and Model Y. There had been rumors that there will be at least 3 more Gigafactories in China. Of course there could be not more Gigafactories if Tesla is not in China.

[Ludus]

Several observations.

Elon is the bear and China knows it. If they poke Elon will close shop in China. It will hurt but not kill Tesla. Else if Elon allows political manipulation it is a definite total slow death.

Boeing is but 2X SpaceX market cap at current. So SpaceX is much larger than ULA both in the economy and in influence with the DOD. The booster with the most flights. The booster that does 2+ flights per month. The booster with the largest payload capability....

ULA poked and was ignored.

With a few more successes like large scale Starlink Beta with latency well below 100ms, Starship 20km hop, SpaceX valuation might match Boeing. You’re right. Size matters. At this point it seems more like a threat to NASA than SpaceX.

[butters]

Elon Musk has surpassed Mark Zuckerberg to become the world's third richest individual, with a net worth of $111B. Following today's 5-for-1 stock split, TSLA is trading at $489 at the time of writing. For those interested in such measuring contests, TSLA would need to trade at around $800 for Musk to exceed the current net worth of Jeff Bezos.

[ncb1397]

Elon Musk has surpassed Mark Zuckerberg to become the world's third richest individual, with a net worth of $111B. Following today's 5-for-1 stock split, TSLA is trading at $489 at the time of writing. For those interested in such measuring contests, TSLA would need to trade at around $800 for Musk to exceed the current net worth of Jeff Bezos.

That math doesn't really make much sense.

~45% of SpaceX at $46 billion valuation = $20.7 billion
39.7 million shares split 5 ways at $800 per share = $158.8 billion
Total = $179.5 billion

Forbes places Jeff Bezos at $203.8 billion and Bloomberg puts him at $200 even. It would have to trade at $900 to match Jeff Bezos.  Which would correspond to a $840 billion valuation or the next 17 largest global automobile car companies combined. But retail is piling on with their covid checks or whatever (there has to be some explanation), so it doesn't necessarily have to make sense anymore (asset bubbles are self-sustaining).

[Tomness]

Elon Musk has surpassed Mark Zuckerberg to become the world's third richest individual, with a net worth of $111B. Following today's 5-for-1 stock split, TSLA is trading at $489 at the time of writing. For those interested in such measuring contests, TSLA would need to trade at around $800 for Musk to exceed the current net worth of Jeff Bezos.

That math doesn't really make much sense.

~45% of SpaceX at $46 billion valuation = $20.7 billion
39.7 million shares split 5 ways at $800 per share = $158.8 billion
Total = $179.5 billion

Forbes places Jeff Bezos at $203.8 billion and Bloomberg puts him at $200 even. It would have to trade at $900 to match Jeff Bezos.  Which would correspond to a $840 billion valuation or the next 17 largest global automobile car companies combined.

That's because it was TSLA that split from $2300 to $460 5-1. So Tesla will need to double now and then he will beat Jeff

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Elon Musk has surpassed Mark Zuckerberg to become the world's third richest individual, with a net worth of $111B. Following today's 5-for-1 stock split, TSLA is trading at $489 at the time of writing. For those interested in such measuring contests, TSLA would need to trade at around $800 for Musk to exceed the current net worth of Jeff Bezos.

That math doesn't really make much sense.

~45% of SpaceX at $46 billion valuation = $20.7 billion
39.7 million shares split 5 ways at $800 per share = $158.8 billion
Total = $179.5 billion

Forbes places Jeff Bezos at $203.8 billion and Bloomberg puts him at $200 even. It would have to trade at $900 to match Jeff Bezos.  Which would correspond to a $840 billion valuation or the next 17 largest global automobile car companies combined.

That's because it was TSLA that split from $2300 to $460 5-1. So Tesla will need to double now and then he will beat Jeff

Tesla holdings ~$110B at $490/share
SpaceX holdings ~$20B

For a total of ~$130B.

He needs to grow his assets by another $70B to match Besos. But by then Besos assets may be bigger also.

[ncb1397]

Tesla holdings ~$110B at $490/share
SpaceX holdings ~$20B

For a total of ~$130B.

He needs to grow his assets by another $70B to match Besos. But by then Besos assets may be bigger also.

Forbes places him at $102.9 Billion and Bloomberg at $115 billion at $498 per share. So, it is safe to say that his Tesla holdings are not ~$110B at $490/share unless all his other holdings are calculated at only ~$5 billion (a little under half of SpaceX should be worth around $20 billion). In reality, he was reported to own 34,098,597 shares as of 2/14/2020^[1] and then also qualified for 1.69 million shares at a discounted price in May 2020^[2] which means he likely had 35,788,597 shares pre split and 178,942,985 shares post split or a value of $87,682,062,650 @ $490.

^[1]https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000149473020000001/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml
^[2]https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/28/tesla-board-certifies-elon-musks-payday-worth-more-than-700-million/

[Robotbeat]

Elon has leveraged quite a bit of his stake at Tesla in loans to pay for stuff (probably SpaceX, TBC, Neuralink, etc), so you've got to discount that amount.

[M.E.T.]

Tesla holdings ~$110B at $490/share
SpaceX holdings ~$20B

For a total of ~$130B.

He needs to grow his assets by another $70B to match Besos. But by then Besos assets may be bigger also.

Forbes places him at $102.9 Billion and Bloomberg at $115 billion at $498 per share. So, it is safe to say that his Tesla holdings are not ~$110B at $490/share unless all his other holdings are calculated at only ~$5 billion (a little under half of SpaceX should be worth around $20 billion). In reality, he was reported to own 34,098,597 shares as of 2/14/2020^[1] and then also qualified for 1.69 million shares at a discounted price in May 2020^[2] which means he likely had 35,788,597 shares pre split and 178,942,985 shares post split or a value of $87,682,062,650 @ $490.

^[1]https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000149473020000001/xslF345X03/edgardoc.xml
^[2]https://techcrunch.com/2020/05/28/tesla-board-certifies-elon-musks-payday-worth-more-than-700-million/

Some sources show him owning just over 38 million shares pre-split. I seem to recall he has a few million additional share options which he has not exercised yet from earlier years, which may add up to the 38 million.

[glorkspangle]

If the stock price continues at or above $2000 for the next 7 weeks then the next Tranche at the average Market Cap of $250B will be reached around the first of Nov. This one would add another $3B+ to Musk's net holdings in TESLA.

You are completely ignoring other requirements. The requirements for the 2nd tranche is $35 billion in annual revenue. Revenue over the last 4 quarters was $26 billion. There are other requirements on top of that.

Tesla has to hit one market cap milestone and one operational milestone to release each tranche. Half of the operational milestones are revenue (trailing 4 quarters: $20bn, $35bn, $55bn, $75bn, etc) and half are adjusted EBITDA (trailing 4 quarters: $1.5bn, $3.0bn, $4.5bn, etc). There's no requirement for these milestones to be hit in any particular order or to be matched with any particular market cap milestones. They haven't hit the second revenue milestone ($35 bn) yet, but their adjusted EBITDA (trailing 4 quarters) is now $4.4 bn, so they've already hit the first two adjusted EBITDA milestones. So they've now hit a total of three operational milestones (one revenue and two adjusted EBITDA). So Musk is eligible for another two tranches, as soon as the six-month trailing average market cap hits $200bn.

"Any one of the Operational Milestones, including one of the eight Revenue milestones or one of the eight Adjusted EBITDA milestones, may be paired with any of the 12 Market Capitalization Milestones to successfully achieve the vesting of one of the 12 tranches."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312518035345/d524719ddef14a.htm

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Elon has leveraged quite a bit of his stake at Tesla in loans to pay for stuff (probably SpaceX, TBC, Neuralink, etc), so you've got to discount that amount.

Went back and looked at the baseline for Tesla and was using wrong value. Corrected is ~$82B Tesla.

Thanks for better data.

[Slarty1080]

Tesla and SpaceX aren't quite big enough yet but Musk is a smart cookie and IMO it won't take that long before they are. You can't let someone like Musk into your business and ignore him. They have not taken the threat seriously and it's only now they are starting to realise that they have a tiger by the ears.