Starlink : Markets and Marketing

[M.E.T.]

https://twitter.com/amlewis4/status/1545157984514236416?s=21&t=_HOwlxAhwt69ehAWhTlu2Q

So this seems significant. How big is the potential maritime market? 10,000 boats/ships world wide? 100,000?

At the quoted $5000/month, 10,000 customers gives you $600M annual revenue. If it’s 100,000 customers, that’s $6B annual revenue. A factor of 2-3 more than SpaceX’s entire launch revenue per year.

100,000 boats, worldwide, does not seem unreasonable. But I have no real idea of the size of the recreational boating industry.

At that $5000 a month cost, that will take most of the recreational boating populace firmly out of the market, don’t you think?  Not saying there isn’t a huge market for it, but I think at that price it won’t be recreational boaters

That’s what I’m trying to get an idea of. A quick Google tells me there are about 30 million recreational boats in the world (not sure how active all of them are though). So theoretically, you just need 0.3% of those to reach 100,000 customers.

[MikeAtkinson]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

[M.E.T.]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

Which part of the addressable market would Starlink not capture? If they have a better service and a similar or better price than the legacy competitors?

[MikeAtkinson]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

Which part of the addressable market would Starlink not capture? If they have a better service and a similar or better price than the legacy competitors?

Some might opt to not use satellites at all (e.g. coastal shipping), some SpaceX cannot service (e.g. North Korea), some might use OneWeb or other future consellations.

[Robotbeat]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

Still sounds like multiple billions per year in revenue potential. That's kind of a lot of money!

Starlink might actually increase the popularity of ships and airplanes, since people will be able to have an actually usable connection (and thus people could just work remotely from planes or ships or blimps or whatever).

Cost to live on a cruise ship is not necessarily particularly high if you have a roommate and are careful what you spend money on. At $500/week, that’d be less than rent in San Francisco.

[DanClemmensen]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This is based on analogy with mobile GEO systems used on ships. It is generic and not specific to Starlink.

There will be at least two types of maritime terminal depending on the desired max data capacity. Passenger ships need high-capacity terminals, and superyachts get high-capacity terminals because they can. A few specialized ships like booster landing barges have high-capacity requirements. That capacity is only loosely correlated with ship size. Many of the large commercial ships have relatively small crews and only modest need for engineering data, weather data, and administrative data (business e-mail, etc.) Movies for the crew often dominates on cargo ships and large fishing vessels. These vessels can use the same small terminals as everybody else. the small terminals have the same max data rates as an ordinary fixed land-based consumer terminal, and may or may not be identical. The changes are a radome and mount capable of dealing with the ocean environment and possibly a GPS, a compass, and accelerometers to sense local vertical.  Many vessels use two terminals instead of one to handle blockage by the other antenna masts, doubling the capital cost.

The older GEO systems use steerable stabilized parabolic dish antennas inside radomes.  These are very expensive and drive the capital cost. Starlink will use phased array antennas, which have become relatively inexpensive. Starlink antennas must be steerable to track the satellites, so the incremental cost for a mobile terminal is minor, "merely" using the position sensor data as part of the pointing computations.

After you have a terminal, you then get to decide on a data plan.

[M.E.T.]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This is based on analogy with mobile GEO systems used on ships. It is generic and not specific to Starlink.

There will be at least two types of maritime terminal depending on the desired max data capacity. Passenger ships need high-capacity terminals, and superyachts get high-capacity terminals because they can. A few specialized ships like booster landing barges have high-capacity requirements. That capacity is only loosely correlated with ship size. Many of the large commercial ships have relatively small crews and only modest need for engineering data, weather data, and administrative data (business e-mail, etc.) Movies for the crew often dominates on cargo ships and large fishing vessels. These vessels can use the same small terminals as everybody else. the small terminals have the same max data rates as an ordinary fixed land-based consumer terminal, and may or may not be identical. The changes are a radome and mount capable of dealing with the ocean environment and possibly a GPS, a compass, and accelerometers to sense local vertical.  Many vessels use two terminals instead of one to handle blockage by the other antenna masts, doubling the capital cost.

The older GEO systems use steerable stabilized parabolic dish antennas inside radomes.  These are very expensive and drive the capital cost. Starlink will use phased array antennas, which have become relatively inexpensive. Starlink antennas must be steerable to track the satellites, so the incremental cost for a mobile terminal is minor, "merely" using the position sensor data as part of the pointing computations.

After you have a terminal, you then get to decide on a data plan.

Translation please? Does this mean Mike’s 200k-1M estimated market size is too high or too low?

[DanClemmensen]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This is based on analogy with mobile GEO systems used on ships. It is generic and not specific to Starlink.

There will be at least two types of maritime terminal depending on the desired max data capacity. Passenger ships need high-capacity terminals, and superyachts get high-capacity terminals because they can. A few specialized ships like booster landing barges have high-capacity requirements. That capacity is only loosely correlated with ship size. Many of the large commercial ships have relatively small crews and only modest need for engineering data, weather data, and administrative data (business e-mail, etc.) Movies for the crew often dominates on cargo ships and large fishing vessels. These vessels can use the same small terminals as everybody else. the small terminals have the same max data rates as an ordinary fixed land-based consumer terminal, and may or may not be identical. The changes are a radome and mount capable of dealing with the ocean environment and possibly a GPS, a compass, and accelerometers to sense local vertical.  Many vessels use two terminals instead of one to handle blockage by the other antenna masts, doubling the capital cost.

The older GEO systems use steerable stabilized parabolic dish antennas inside radomes.  These are very expensive and drive the capital cost. Starlink will use phased array antennas, which have become relatively inexpensive. Starlink antennas must be steerable to track the satellites, so the incremental cost for a mobile terminal is minor, "merely" using the position sensor data as part of the pointing computations.

After you have a terminal, you then get to decide on a data plan.

Translation please? Does this mean Mike’s 200k-1M estimated market size is too high or too low?

It means there is a two-tier market. Mike's estimate is about right for the top tier: at least 200k-400k of those big terminals. But I think it's low for the more typical terminals, which will end up on many of the big cargo ships and a lot of smaller boats.

[kevinof]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

[M.E.T.]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This is based on analogy with mobile GEO systems used on ships. It is generic and not specific to Starlink.

There will be at least two types of maritime terminal depending on the desired max data capacity. Passenger ships need high-capacity terminals, and superyachts get high-capacity terminals because they can. A few specialized ships like booster landing barges have high-capacity requirements. That capacity is only loosely correlated with ship size. Many of the large commercial ships have relatively small crews and only modest need for engineering data, weather data, and administrative data (business e-mail, etc.) Movies for the crew often dominates on cargo ships and large fishing vessels. These vessels can use the same small terminals as everybody else. the small terminals have the same max data rates as an ordinary fixed land-based consumer terminal, and may or may not be identical. The changes are a radome and mount capable of dealing with the ocean environment and possibly a GPS, a compass, and accelerometers to sense local vertical.  Many vessels use two terminals instead of one to handle blockage by the other antenna masts, doubling the capital cost.

The older GEO systems use steerable stabilized parabolic dish antennas inside radomes.  These are very expensive and drive the capital cost. Starlink will use phased array antennas, which have become relatively inexpensive. Starlink antennas must be steerable to track the satellites, so the incremental cost for a mobile terminal is minor, "merely" using the position sensor data as part of the pointing computations.

After you have a terminal, you then get to decide on a data plan.

Translation please? Does this mean Mike’s 200k-1M estimated market size is too high or too low?

It means there is a two-tier market. Mike's estimate is about right for the top tier: at least 200k-400k of those big terminals. But I think it's low for the more typical terminals, which will end up on many of the big cargo ships and a lot of smaller boats.

The terminal is a once-off installation cost, though. So far I have only seen a single tier monthly subscription of $5k. I agree, though, that once that market is saturated, Starlink has nothing to lose by introducing a cheaper, lower bandwidth, less robust option, structured in a way that does not cannibalize the higher tier subscriptions.

[M.E.T.]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1545150995767779328

I love that Starlink Maritime is the same exact thing as residential Starlink but on a boat but is priced 50x higher. smart vertical specific pricing @elonmusk

twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545165611201728512

No, it’s dual, high performance terminals, which are important for maintaining the connection in choppy seas & heavy storms.

Still obv premium pricing, but way cheaper & faster than alternatives.

SpaceX was paying $150k/month for a much worse connection to our ships!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545166089675362305

Also, being ruggedized for relentless salt spray & extreme winds & storms in deep ocean is not easy

[kevinof]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

Until recently it was limited to within the 12 mile limit but I just sailed from Grenada to the U.S. and had coverage most of the way, despite there being no ground stations and no 12 mile cutoff. Grenada, Bonaire, Martinique and Guadeloupe all have ok service and then as you get further  north you get into range of Peurto Rico ground station.

[M.E.T.]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

Until recently it was limited to within the 12 mile limit but I just sailed from Grenada to the U.S. and had coverage most of the way, despite there being no ground stations and no 12 mile cutoff. Grenada, Bonaire, Martinique and Guadeloupe all have ok service and then as you get further  north you get into range of Peurto Rico ground station.

Interesting. Seems to undermine the $5000/month offering somewhat. I wonder if changes will be forthcoming to address that.

[kevinof]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

Until recently it was limited to within the 12 mile limit but I just sailed from Grenada to the U.S. and had coverage most of the way, despite there being no ground stations and no 12 mile cutoff. Grenada, Bonaire, Martinique and Guadeloupe all have ok service and then as you get further  north you get into range of Peurto Rico ground station.

Interesting. Seems to undermine the $5000/month offering somewhat. I wonder if changes will be forthcoming to address that.

If (sub == RV & distanceFromShore > 12)  stopService()

[M.E.T.]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

Until recently it was limited to within the 12 mile limit but I just sailed from Grenada to the U.S. and had coverage most of the way, despite there being no ground stations and no 12 mile cutoff. Grenada, Bonaire, Martinique and Guadeloupe all have ok service and then as you get further  north you get into range of Peurto Rico ground station.

Interesting. Seems to undermine the $5000/month offering somewhat. I wonder if changes will be forthcoming to address that.

If (sub == RV & distanceFromShore > 12)  stopService()

Yep. Got that. I imagine they will run all the numbers. Once a two tier maritime option exists, for say a mid point between the current RV fee and the luxury $5000/month fee, they can assess the market response accordingly. Maybe even introduce a third tier as needed.

Tesla for example plays around with pricing all the time. As long as they are offering a better service than the competition at a given price point.

[MikeAtkinson]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

The hardest number to estimate was the large recreational boats just below superyacht in size. These still are expensive often in the $1-5 million range, with running costs ~10% or purchase price and depreciation of 5-10% a Starlink terminal would be a significant but not overwhelming expense. I would guess that there are 5-10 times the number of boats in this category as there are superyachts.

I also missed out a few uses (cruise ships, oil rigs, naval).

Looked at another way there are 600,000 ultra high net worth individuals, growing at over 9% a year. I would guess 10% owned a yacht and would easily be able to afford a marine Starlink terminal.

[kevinof]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

Until recently it was limited to within the 12 mile limit but I just sailed from Grenada to the U.S. and had coverage most of the way, despite there being no ground stations and no 12 mile cutoff. Grenada, Bonaire, Martinique and Guadeloupe all have ok service and then as you get further  north you get into range of Peurto Rico ground station.

Interesting. Seems to undermine the $5000/month offering somewhat. I wonder if changes will be forthcoming to address that.

If (sub == RV & distanceFromShore > 12)  stopService()

Yep. Got that. I imagine they will run all the numbers. Once a two tier maritime option exists, for say a mid point between the current RV fee and the luxury $5000/month fee, they can assess the market response accordingly. Maybe even introduce a third tier as needed.

Tesla for example plays around with pricing all the time. As long as they are offering a better service than the competition at a given price point.

Maybe. For recreational boaters the current RV sub works great and it’s a market the likes of Viasat or Iridium can’t go after right now. Infrequent users, low priority in congested areas but a nice monthly sub to SpaceX.

My type of use is the minority - works great in the U.S. and Caribbean( is it in the same continent as the U.S.?) but once I leave Panama next March I will probably dismantle the Starlink, stop the service and pack it away for the next 5 years - unless they change  their restrictions.

[virtuallynathan]

There are 51,000 commercial ships (or 62,000 from a different source), 7,000 - 10,000 superyachts, 50,000 large fishing vessels and 30,000,000 recreational boats.

Potential market is all commercial ships and superyachts plus many of the large fishing vessels plus a small portion of the recreational boats.

I would guess 200,000 - 1,000,000 is the current total market size - off which Starlink would only capture a proportion.

This service will have little impact on the recreational boat market. Way too expensive on initial setup and monthly. It’s aimed squarely at commercial ships and off shore installations, and mega yachts. The market is big but not as big as you think.

I currently have the RV service on my boat tied to the continent of the U.S. and it’s priced well but geo restricted.  If SpaceX shut me off when I move out of the area I’d just end the sub as would 99% of the other cruisers who are “in the same boat”.

So how far out to sea does your system still work?

Until recently it was limited to within the 12 mile limit but I just sailed from Grenada to the U.S. and had coverage most of the way, despite there being no ground stations and no 12 mile cutoff. Grenada, Bonaire, Martinique and Guadeloupe all have ok service and then as you get further  north you get into range of Peurto Rico ground station.

The Puerto Rico ground station can cover that, see Starlink.sx...

[CuddlyRocket]

Cross-posting:

https://twitter.com/Silent_Yachts/status/1545403814194384896