Starlink : Markets and Marketing

[Asteroza]

Just 2% of Starlink users live outside of the West, data suggests

Last year, Sarfaraz Hassan, the chief technology officer at an adventure tourism startup in India’s northeastern Assam state, signed up to receive a Starlink unit from SpaceX. Hassan thought Elon Musk’s satellite internet service could help his company, Encamp, entice digital nomads to work from the rugged foothills of the eastern Himalayas, where fewer than 40% of people have access to broadband. Then, in early January, Starlink announced that preorders in India were being refunded until the company received license to operate in the country. After months of waiting, Hassan recently got his $99 deposit (about 7,500 rupees) back.

Hassan is one of the half a million people worldwide who have signed up to receive Elon Musk’s Starlink service but are still waiting for access. In India, where Starlink was supposed to arrive this month, SpaceX had planned to deploy 200,000 dishes across the country by the end of this year. Instead, the company has had to refund its waiting list at the direction of the Indian government, leaving thousands waiting for connectivity. (The Indian telecomms regulator had warned the public late last year not to pay for equipment before the company had a license.)

I have to say, I wonder if the 98% of customers who live "outside the west" are so few because nobody outside the west is interested, or because outside the west local telecommunications monopolies have captured the governmental regulatory bodies so that those potential customers can't actually sign up for service?  Witness what happened in India, for example.  China and Russia certainly won't allow their citizens to sign up, either, for even more overtly political reasons. 

So all it could take is a political change, and there are a lot more potential customers.  Fortunately, with SpaceX's launch and build economics, I don't think they will rely on those non western customers in the short term.

Considering the listed example was targeting digital nomads, the customer base by definition is in a similar economic stance as many middle income western citizens, so there's no immediate need for a low price tier from a business perspective.

India is a special case for reasons beyond telecomm regulatory capture, specifically the import tax regime effectively being a punitive measure to force domestic production of devices. It's a frequent tactic seen in history by countries trying to rapidly rise up into the first world club, as it facilitates both a fast buildout of domestic industrial capacity, as well as industrial espionage and intellectual property theft. Some examples being japan post WW2, as well as the US extracting technology from england and germany during it's early development (specifically textile tech). Generally once the domestic base is self-sustaining, those countries suddenly shift to respecting intellectual property internationally.

[JayWee]

I have to say, I wonder if the 98% of customers who live "outside the west" are so few because nobody outside the west is interested, or because outside the west local telecommunications monopolies have captured the governmental regulatory bodies so that those potential customers can't actually sign up for service?  Witness what happened in India, for example.  China and Russia certainly won't allow their citizens to sign up, either, for even more overtly political reasons. 

So all it could take is a political change, and there are a lot more potential customers.  Fortunately, with SpaceX's launch and build economics, I don't think they will rely on those non western customers in the short term. 

Couple of reasons:
a) non-west is generally poor. $100/month is a lot of money.
b) no ISL initially -> You need to build a ground gateway nearby, which they don't build because of a).
Makes sense to prioritize West first.

[LouScheffer]

[...] ISL technology is extremely complex, [...] As far as I know, all previous experiments on laser communication in space were periodic sessions of transmitting information lasting several minutes, and here we need a stable constant connection. [...]

The GRACE follow-on satellites use inter-spacecraft optical links for ranging.  They have stayed phase-locked (and this is the phase of the optical carrier!) for more than 50 days at a time.  These satellites are closer than StarLink, but Starlink is not trying to be a huge optical interferometer and could use much higher power (but not as optically coherent) lasers.  So solutions are at least known to exist, and with public designs.  I suspect Starlink has also solved these problems.

[niwax]

I have to say, I wonder if the 98% of customers who live "outside the west" are so few because nobody outside the west is interested, or because outside the west local telecommunications monopolies have captured the governmental regulatory bodies so that those potential customers can't actually sign up for service?  Witness what happened in India, for example.  China and Russia certainly won't allow their citizens to sign up, either, for even more overtly political reasons. 

So all it could take is a political change, and there are a lot more potential customers.  Fortunately, with SpaceX's launch and build economics, I don't think they will rely on those non western customers in the short term. 

This seems like an odd complaint considering this is their current service area and they have only been selling in volume outside the US for a few months. Did they expect quarter of Chile to suddenly order as many as a billion people in the US, Europe and Australia? I was frankly more surprised that they have already opened up business and sold thousands of units outside their first few starting countries.

[Reynold]

Just 2% of Starlink users live outside of the West, data suggests

Last year, Sarfaraz Hassan, the chief technology officer at an adventure tourism startup in India’s northeastern Assam state, signed up to receive a Starlink unit from SpaceX. Hassan thought Elon Musk’s satellite internet service could help his company, Encamp, entice digital nomads to work from the rugged foothills of the eastern Himalayas, where fewer than 40% of people have access to broadband. Then, in early January, Starlink announced that preorders in India were being refunded until the company received license to operate in the country. After months of waiting, Hassan recently got his $99 deposit (about 7,500 rupees) back.

Hassan is one of the half a million people worldwide who have signed up to receive Elon Musk’s Starlink service but are still waiting for access. In India, where Starlink was supposed to arrive this month, SpaceX had planned to deploy 200,000 dishes across the country by the end of this year. Instead, the company has had to refund its waiting list at the direction of the Indian government, leaving thousands waiting for connectivity. (The Indian telecomms regulator had warned the public late last year not to pay for equipment before the company had a license.)

I have to say, I wonder if the 98% of customers who live "outside the west" are so few because nobody outside the west is interested, or because outside the west local telecommunications monopolies have captured the governmental regulatory bodies so that those potential customers can't actually sign up for service?  Witness what happened in India, for example.  China and Russia certainly won't allow their citizens to sign up, either, for even more overtly political reasons. 

So all it could take is a political change, and there are a lot more potential customers.  Fortunately, with SpaceX's launch and build economics, I don't think they will rely on those non western customers in the short term.

Considering the listed example was targeting digital nomads, the customer base by definition is in a similar economic stance as many middle income western citizens, so there's no immediate need for a low price tier from a business perspective.

India is a special case for reasons beyond telecomm regulatory capture, specifically the import tax regime effectively being a punitive measure to force domestic production of devices. It's a frequent tactic seen in history by countries trying to rapidly rise up into the first world club, as it facilitates both a fast buildout of domestic industrial capacity, as well as industrial espionage and intellectual property theft. Some examples being japan post WW2, as well as the US extracting technology from england and germany during it's early development (specifically textile tech). Generally once the domestic base is self-sustaining, those countries suddenly shift to respecting intellectual property internationally.

I would describe what you say is happening in India as what I was referring to as regulatory capture, in that it is at least unofficial, if not official, government policy to highly favor domestic telecoms over foreign ones, regardless of relative merits of the different products.  Perhaps I was defining regulatory capture too broadly. 

I agree that these are common practices with emerging economies, as the U.S. was at one point in history, and was just trying to distinguish actual individual consumer/business demand, which may be high, from allowable market, which may be low based mainly on government fiat in countries currently "outside the west". 

[Barley]

I agree that these are common practices with emerging economies, as the U.S. was at one point in history, and was just trying to distinguish actual individual consumer/business demand, which may be high, from allowable market, which may be low based mainly on government fiat in countries currently "outside the west".

Restrictive practices are also common with "developed" countries, e.g. various British "navigation acts" in the 18th century.

Also it is arguable if the US was ever a developing nation.  It depends on what "developing nation" means of course, but the US has easily been in the top ten (of non-pocket countries) for both per capita GDP and technological development for it's entire existence.  If the US was a developing nation in 1783 then everybody except perhaps the UK was developing nation in 1783 which puts developing nation in quite a different light.

In any case many "developing" countries have a middle class and better that is rich enough to afford $100/month and large enough to saturate demand for Starlink's current capabilities.  There is plenty of opportunity in most of the world if they can deal with the politics.

[su27k]

Quebec to connect 10,000 homes to high-speed Internet with help from Elon Musk's Starlink

"The only solution to connect these orphaned households is the SpaceX solution. I'm not linking to Elon Musk, I'm linking to the technology solution, which is the most advanced," he said.

<snip>

Quebec is, therefore, providing $50 million in funding for the deployment of Starlink's satellite transmission service. The government hopes to have 10,200 homes south of the 57th parallel connected by Sept. 30, 2022.

A $9.5-million subsidy will also be granted to the targeted households to cover the full cost of acquiring the necessary equipment.

Québec branchera 10 000 foyers avec l’aide de SpaceX

The Legault government also predicts that it will have achieved its goal of providing high-speed Internet access to 250,000 households by the end of September, before the end of its mandate. This figure includes the 10,000 households that will be connected by the Starlink service.

These households must have access to a connection of at least 50 Mbit/s download and 10 Mbit/s upload, with unlimited data transfer capacity.

Mr. Bélanger would have liked to launch the agreement with Starlink a little earlier, but the conflict in Ukraine forced him to delay his plans for a few months, he says. The American company left capacity to the Ukrainian government, which needed the satellites to defend itself against the Russian invasion. “I think it was a good move on our part to delay for a few months. »

[DanClemmensen]

Quebec to connect 10,000 homes to high-speed Internet with help from Elon Musk's Starlink

"The only solution to connect these orphaned households is the SpaceX solution. I'm not linking to Elon Musk, I'm linking to the technology solution, which is the most advanced," he said.

<snip>

Quebec is, therefore, providing $50 million in funding for the deployment of Starlink's satellite transmission service. The government hopes to have 10,200 homes south of the 57th parallel connected by Sept. 30, 2022.

A $9.5-million subsidy will also be granted to the targeted households to cover the full cost of acquiring the necessary equipment.

Québec branchera 10 000 foyers avec l’aide de SpaceX

The Legault government also predicts that it will have achieved its goal of providing high-speed Internet access to 250,000 households by the end of September, before the end of its mandate. This figure includes the 10,000 households that will be connected by the Starlink service.

These households must have access to a connection of at least 50 Mbit/s download and 10 Mbit/s upload, with unlimited data transfer capacity.

Mr. Bélanger would have liked to launch the agreement with Starlink a little earlier, but the conflict in Ukraine forced him to delay his plans for a few months, he says. The American company left capacity to the Ukrainian government, which needed the satellites to defend itself against the Russian invasion. “I think it was a good move on our part to delay for a few months. »

This is probably a setback to OneWeb. OneWeb's constellation is better suited to high latitudes and the Canadian provinces tend have sparse underserved populations at high latitudes.

[su27k]

https://spacenews.com/space-force-general-commercial-satellite-internet-in-ukraine-showing-power-of-megaconstellations/

During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing May 11, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) asked Space Force officials if any lessons could be drawn from the war in Ukraine about the role of commercial satellites in armed conflicts.

One lesson is the resiliency provided by large proliferated constellations, said Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations of the U.S. Space Force.

Russia in a cyberattack in February managed to disrupt satcom services provided by a Viasat satellite. But SpaceX’s broadband constellation Starlink has continued to provide internet services in Ukraine despite attempts to disrupt it. According to Elon Musk, the Starlink network “has resisted Russian cyberwar jamming and hacking attempts so far, but they’re ramping up their efforts.”

At a hearing of the SASC strategic forces subcommittee, Cotton noted that most people expected Ukraine’s communications or internet access would be cut off in the first days or first hours of the war, “but that did not happen, and it still has not happened,” he said, and one reason for that is the availability of satellite based internet.

[su27k]

How Starlink Scrambled to Keep Ukraine Online

ON MARCH 29, Ukrainian forces rolled into the shattered streets of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, littered with blackened wreckage and dead bodies. The destruction had knocked all 24 of the city’s cell towers offline, preventing traumatized survivors from letting friends and relatives know they were safe. “Most of those base stations had significant destruction,” says Kostyantyn Naumenko, head of radio access network planning and development at cellular network Vodafone Ukraine. Just two days later, with help from Elon Musk, the city was back online.

Irpin was reconnected on March 31 after engineers from Vodafone Ukraine arrived with a circular white satellite antenna known by its manufacturer as Dishy McFlatface—a terminal for the Starlink satellite internet service offered by Musk’s SpaceX. The engineers mounted the receiver and its motorized base to a mobile base station on the edge of Irpin whose fiber-optic connection and power had been severed, and attached a generator. Within hours, the city was back online, and so were its remaining residents. “The first thing they are doing is calling relatives to say that they are safe and sound,” Naumenko says.

[su27k]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1525909526968401921

The Ukrainian Army has released a video showing its soldiers taking cover in a forest under intense Russian artillery fire but being able to maintain communications thanks to StarLink.

The video ends with them thanking Elon Musk for sending hundreds of StarLink receivers to UA.

[su27k]

Uzbekistan woos Starlink, OneWeb to bring satellite broadband

The meeting between Uzbekistan’s development of information technologies and communications minister and Starlink market access manager, Ben MacWilliams, took place May 10, on the sidelines of the Space Technology Conference STC-2022, according to a May 11 statement from Uzbekistan’s state investment promotion agency. During the meeting, the minister, Sherzod Shermatov, called on Starlink to expand the scope of its services to include the Middle East, South  Asia and Central Asia, according to the statement. The minister also suggested that Starlink open a representative office in Uzbekistan “to expand mutually beneficial cooperation.”

In response, MacWilliams announced his company’s “readiness to implement large projects in Uzbekistan, as well as in other countries,” according to the statement. SpaceNews reached out to Starlink to ask what the “large projects” are, but the company didn’t respond.

[su27k]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1527645516258955266

Super excited to be in Brazil for launch of Starlink for 19,000 unconnected schools in rural areas & environmental monitoring of Amazon! 🇧🇷 🌳 🛰 ♥️

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1528846007148363776

Starlink for RVs can be used anywhere Starlink provides service and is ideal for camping and other activities in rural or remote locations where internet access has been unreliable or completely unavailable → starlink.com/rv

[niwax]

Starlink now has over 400000 subscribers

Some fun stats:
- That's well over $20000/month in revenue per active satellite
- If they keep up that pace, a million subscribers this year looks possible
- With a mobile surcharge and business service, they are fast approaching a billion dollars in yearly revenue, even excluding user terminals

Overall, it seems like the business case is already closing. Winding down launches to just keeping the constellation in a steady state would probably be profitable soon.

[su27k]

NBN claims Musk’s Starlink is wrecking its business, as telcos slam price hikes

The company operating the National Broadband Network has claimed competition from wireless services including Elon Musk’s Starlink is threatening the viability of its business, as retail internet providers hit out at its plans to sharply raise prices.

NBN Co’s plans to raise prices surfaced this week in a redacted proposal to revise its special access undertaking, which was released by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

[su27k]

https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1529483923092299779

Starlink success story in Ukraine or how @SpaceX tech keeps us online. 10K Starlink terminals. One satellite can cover up to 5 villages with internet. Our new critical infrastructure, which is easy & mobile. Thank you, elonmusk!

[gemmy0I]

NBN claims Musk’s Starlink is wrecking its business, as telcos slam price hikes

The company operating the National Broadband Network has claimed competition from wireless services including Elon Musk’s Starlink is threatening the viability of its business, as retail internet providers hit out at its plans to sharply raise prices.

NBN Co’s plans to raise prices surfaced this week in a redacted proposal to revise its special access undertaking, which was released by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).

Well that'll work out well for them. 🤦‍♂️ As tempting as price hikes can be for a business that's seeing its customer base crumble and wants a quick fix to stop the bottom-line bleeding, that's a surefire way to initiate a long-term death spiral, because it goes against the natural law of supply and demand. The higher prices will drive away even more customers, necessitating further price hikes, etc...

Jacking up prices to replace lost business only works when you can lean on a remaining base of customers in areas where you still have an effective monopoly, i.e. they have no choice but to pay up (or stop taking service altogether if they can't afford it). That won't work too well for NBN (and other legacy telcos worldwide trying similar strategies) since Starlink is only going to cover more areas and add more customer capacity over time. And while Starlink won't be able to fully compete with them in denser urban areas, it sounds like their 5G competitors may have that side of things handled.

[JayWee]

Yeah, Australia is a perfect country for Starlink. High-income, very low population density.
I see that thanks to some politicking the NBN went with Fiber-To-The-Node instead of FTTH as originally planned. And some wireless. Not a smart decision for 2013.

[su27k]

The Philippines gives green light to Starlink

The Philippines has approved plans that will see it become the first country in Southeast Asia to access SpaceX’s Starlink broadband services.

The National Telecommunications Commission (NTC) approved May 26 the registration of Starlink Internet Services Philippines Inc., a subsidiary of SpaceX that will provide the satellite broadband to the archipelago.

The approval set the stage for the subsidiary to start providing Starlink services in the country, according to the government-funded Philippine News Agency.

Starlink approved in Nigeria and Mozambique, says Elon Musk

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced the regulatory clearance in Africa via Twitter a few hours after tweeting that Starlink had been approved in the Philippines, the first country in Southeast Asia to grant it permission to provide services.

Starlink’s regulatory approvals mean the low Earth orbit network “is now licensed on all seven continents,” SpaceX’s Twitter account added.

Nigeria-based publication Nairametrics reported that the Nigerian Communications Commission confirmed it had licensed Starlink following Musk’s tweet.

According to the Nairametrics report, Starlink was licensed as an internet service provider (ISP), which is a category terrestrial telcos also fall into, and the license will be up for renewal in 10 years.