Starlink : Markets and Marketing

[OceanCat]

AMN Deploys Starlink Connectivity in Rural Villages in Nigeria

Africa Mobile Networks (AMN) has deployed the company’s first base station in Nigeria that has connectivity via SpaceX’s Starlink constellation, AMN announced last week.

Last year, the company signed a commercial agreement to use the Starlink Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) constellation to connect its mobile network base stations with high-speed, low-latency broadband services.

Installation of new sites continues throughout 2024 in Nigeria, DRC, Cameroon, Madagascar, Ivory Coast, Benin and Rwanda.

[RedLineTrain]

For the record, Starlink now available in Uruguay and Micronesia.  The Americas have really filled out.

https://twitter.com/Starlink/status/1786085342770258006

https://twitter.com/Starlink/status/1783237077829870049

[RedLineTrain]

Indonesia license issued and service to be launched in the next two weeks.  A biggie.

Jakarta (ANTARA) - SpaceX's satellite constellation, Starlink, will launch its broadband services in Indonesia in the next two weeks, according to Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan.

https://en.antaranews.com/news/312498/starlink-launch-in-indonesia-set-for-next-two-weeks-minister

[RedLineTrain]

Maersk with more or less an unpaid glossy advertisement for Starlink Maritime.  "Earned media" at its finest.

Smooth sailing with @Starlink!⭐️ Proud to announce 300 connections on our vessels, delivering lightning-fast internet. This @SpaceX #partnership enhances crew support and marks a step towards cloud services at sea. 🚢 Welcome to a new era of maritime #connectivity! #Maersk

https://twitter.com/Maersk/status/1791000718054162903

[RedLineTrain]

Indonesia service launched.

Honored to launch @Starlink in Indonesia!

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1792129896690639175

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/starlink/status/1792344371138076821

Starlink is now live across the 300+ islands in the Republic of Fiji, marking the 99th country, territory or market around the world where Starlink’s high-speed internet service is available 🛰️🇫🇯❤️ → starlink.com/map

[rfdesigner]

I can't see this story linked to.. so here's the link.  UK rural phone coverage fill in via starlink

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/18/elon-musks-starlink-in-talks-to-boost-ee-rural-coverage/

As someone in a rural area, who's seen our mobile signal die in power cuts and now facing the end of the copper landlines this is a vital back up.

[OceanCat]

SpaceX Starlink Emerged As Nigeria’s Third-Largest ISP In Q4 2023

Elon Musk’s internet company, Starlink, has rapidly ascended to become Nigeria’s third-largest Internet Service Provider (ISP) by subscriber number in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023, according to the latest data released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

The NCC report reveals that Starlink’s active customers in Nigeria surged to 23,897 by the end of Q4 2023, marking a significant 113% increase from the 11,207 customers reported in Q3 2023. This swift growth has positioned Starlink as one of the leading ISPs in the country, surpassing many long-established local providers.

Spectranet leads the market with 113,869 active customers, followed by FiberOne, which recorded 27,000 active users by the end of 2023.

The NCC’s data shows that out of 245 companies licensed as ISPs in Nigeria by the end of 2023, only 106 had active customers during Q4. These 106 ISPs collectively served 262,206 active customers, a number that pales in comparison to the 163.8 million active internet subscriptions managed by the country’s four major mobile network operators: MTN, Airtel, Globacom, and 9mobile.

[RedLineTrain]

Surprisingly, Zimbabwe licensed Starlink today.  It was directed from the president himself and his friend was given the exclusive rights.  Extremely corrupt on its face.  We'll have to see how Starlink plays this.  It might just mean that the status quo of terminals being smuggled into the country will prevail.

https://twitter.com/edmnangagwa/status/1794345897221902640

One of the strategic pillars that anchor the 2nd Republic’s developmental agenda under Vision 2030 is innovation, science and technology. Prioritization of the digital economy and the emerging importance of technology in our day to day activities requires Government to lead from the front in providing an environment where investment in technology is promoted.

In this vein, I'm pleased to announce that i have approved the licensing of Starlink by POTRAZ to provide advanced internet and related digital processing services in Zimbabwe through its sole and exclusive local partner, IMC Communications (Pvt) Ltd. Starlink @Starlink is a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellite operator wholly owned by global conglomerate Space X led by promiment multi-billionaire @ElonMusk.

The entry by Starlink in the digital telecommunications space in Zimbabwe is expected to result in the deployment of high speed, low cost, LEO internet infrastructure throughout Zimbabwe and particularly in all the rural areas. This will be in fulfillment of my Administration’s undertaking to leave no one and no place behind. The investment confidence expressed by Starlink in Zimbabwe’s telecommunications infrastructure also dovetails with the 2nd Republic’s mantra, “Zimbabwe is open for business”. I encourage more investment by foreign conglomerates in Zimbabwe as we are an investment destination of choice.

I take this opportunity, on behalf of the Government of Zimbabwe, to congratulate IMC Communications (Pvt) Ltd and Starlink on this commendable milestone aimed at revolutionizing the digital and communications technology landscape in Zimbabwe. Investments of this magnitude and strategic importance represent the cornerstone for achieving the 2nd Republic’s objective of having a fully digitalized, upper-middle income economy by 2030.

[OceanCat]

Starlink Casts A Shadow Over Rival Connectivity Providers

An upstart provider of inflight connectivity to business aviation is not listed as an exhibitor at the European Business Aviation Conference and Exhibition (EBACE) taking place in Geneva May 28-30, but it will be casting a shadow over the competition from low Earth orbit.
...
Starlink does not entertain questions from journalists, but industry sources say the company started assembling a dealer network this year. As of mid-May, it listed 21 authorized Starlink dealers, a dozen aircraft types with STCs available, and 20 models with STCs in development. Duncan Aviation, one of the authorized dealers, “is seeing a lot of demand for Starlink,” reports Justin Vena, a Duncan avionics installation sales representative. “Those of us that are selling avionics upgrades on models that have STCs available are quoting it every single day now. We’re talking to people daily and writing quotes.”
Early reviews of Starlink’s high-speed, low-latency, Ku-band service are that it works quite well. Operators say the company understates its 200+ MBps download and the 20+ MBps upload speeds, beating Ku-/Ka-band services supported by higher-flying geostationary (GEO) satellites on speed and latency. Starlink also wins on installation cost and weight when compared to current Ku-/Ka-band satcom systems.
...

[RedLineTrain]

Related to that, Qatar Airlines suggests that they will have Starlink installed on three Boeing 777-300s by the end of the year.  This would necessitate a type certification on 777s before then and its entire fleet in two years.  The Starlink web site shows the type certification for the 777 expected in Q4.

Qatar Airways @qatarairways
Qatar Airways raises in-flight experience to new heights!

We are proud to be the largest global airline and the first in the MENA region to collaborate with @SpaceX @Starlink

This complimentary, ground-breaking service will enhance our passengers' onboard experience with boundless entertainment and information options.

https://twitter.com/qatarairways/status/1795810940484510091

[seb21051]

Just curious: By what measure is Qatar Airways the largest global airline?

[envy887]

Just curious: By what measure is Qatar Airways the largest global airline?

That's just saying it's the largest with Starlink service.

[sanman]

Can we expect Starlink to remain as profitable beyond the medium-term future, as more competiing constellations are deployed and marketed?

As profit margins erode, will SpaceX have to look to new sources of revenue or investment for funding its Mars goals?

[RedLineTrain]

Can we expect Starlink to remain as profitable beyond the medium-term future, as more competiing constellations are deployed and marketed?

As profit margins erode, will SpaceX have to look to new sources of revenue or investment for funding its Mars goals?

I have thought about this often and came to a few conclusions.

1.  The Chinese constellation will not have access to the anglophone markets (US, Canada, Australia, India) and probably not the archipelago markets (Philippines, Indonesia), which are certain to be the anchor markets for Starlink and others because of geography, technology, and populace.  At core, the Chinese do not need megaconstellations very much:  about as much as the US needs 5G.  That said, the Chinese home market is not exposed to outside competition.

2.  The Europeans need megaconstellations even less than the Chinese.  Starlink is only being heavily used in a conflict zone in Europe and its European pricing reflects this reality.  There might be a few exceptions regarding competition with DSL.  Because of this lack of need, I expect that Oneweb and Iris2, etc., will never be sized to compete with Starlink.

3.  Kuiper is a bit of a wildcard.  I believe that its cost structure is unfavorable versus Starlink's.  Perhaps a 10x difference on a bit-for-bit basis through the end of the decade.  So Starlink can lower its prices to beat Kuiper's, if necessary.  My expectation is that Starlink doesn't want to be selling at $120 a month in the US, for example.  They would prefer to be selling to a mass market at $50-$60, substituting for DSL.  But growing capabilities to serve the mass market takes a lot of time.  There's some nuance here.  I'm looking forward to seeing if Kuiper's Ka-band terminal performs acceptably in weather and if/when Starlink adds Ka-band frequencies to its terminal.

4.  Despite Canada being a good home market for megaconstellations, Telesat has not sized its ambitions to be very competitive.

5.  From what little we know of Starshield, it seems priced on very attractive terms.  Something like 1,800 satellites at $1.8 billion, launched.  This is a bit of a wildcard, but Kuiper doesn't seem to be in the same league price-wise.

[DanClemmensen]

Can we expect Starlink to remain as profitable beyond the medium-term future, as more competiing constellations are deployed and marketed?

As profit margins erode, will SpaceX have to look to new sources of revenue or investment for funding its Mars goals?

The profit margin may go down, but the total profit will go up as the number of subscribers goes up. At worst, Starlink prices will need to fall to the prices offered by their competitors (OneWeb and Kuiper in the medium term). but Starlink has huge economies of scale and a big first-mover advantage, so I speculate that they will have higher margins at the same price than the competition.

Once a constellation becomes filled, one major cost becomes cost of replenishment. Starlink will use Starship for this. The competition will either use Starship (revenue to SpaceX) or will use more expensive alternatives. Constellation launches can take full advantage of a large payload mass to orbit.

The Starlink satellite life is planned for five years, so replenishment is 20%/yr in steady state. This is probably driven more by satellite upgrades than by actual satellite lifetime. If other constellations use a longer life, Starlink bandwidth growth will be relatively faster.

[catdlr]

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Starlink is available in Sierra Leone! 🛰️🇸🇱❤️ → starlink.com/map?country=SL

https://twitter.com/starlink/status/1800603222861889965

This marks the 100th country, territory or other market around the world where Starlink’s high-speed, low-latency internet is available

[Reynold]

Can we expect Starlink to remain as profitable beyond the medium-term future, as more competiing constellations are deployed and marketed?

As profit margins erode, will SpaceX have to look to new sources of revenue or investment for funding its Mars goals?

The profit margin may go down, but the total profit will go up as the number of subscribers goes up. At worst, Starlink prices will need to fall to the prices offered by their competitors (OneWeb and Kuiper in the medium term). but Starlink has huge economies of scale and a big first-mover advantage, so I speculate that they will have higher margins at the same price than the competition.

Once a constellation becomes filled, one major cost becomes cost of replenishment. Starlink will use Starship for this. The competition will either use Starship (revenue to SpaceX) or will use more expensive alternatives. Constellation launches can take full advantage of a large payload mass to orbit.

The Starlink satellite life is planned for five years, so replenishment is 20%/yr in steady state. This is probably driven more by satellite upgrades than by actual satellite lifetime. If other constellations use a longer life, Starlink bandwidth growth will be relatively faster.

Tesla already illustrates this higher margin effect, at current EV prices, I believe all western manufacturers lose money on every EV they sell, whereas Tesla makes money on every car they sell because Musk was so fanatically focused on efficient, ground up design and manufacturing for Tesla's cars.  Ditto the launch business, SpaceX's launch margins are far ahead of its competitors.  It is hard to postulate any scenario in the next decade where Starlink would have to lower its prices enough to lose money unless someone rich like Amazon is willing to MASSIVELY subsidize its prices for a long time.  While China is probably also willing to massively subsidize the constellation they are putting up, I suspect that western users will be very suspicious of using it, if it can even get permitted in western countries, so not as much potential competition as in consumer products for example. 

I could see Starlink making a bit less money than they otherwise would as other constellations come on line, but the market overall seems far from saturated. 

On the replacement front, I saw discussed on a podcast or video a few days ago (don't remember which one, unfortunately) that current Starlinks seem to already be having lifetimes of 4+ years, and they only started launching 5 years ago, so they could probably stretch their "5 year" replacement cycle if they wanted to to reduce expenses and make a bit more money. 

[Kiwi53]

Also, the US DoD seem pretty keen to spend a lot more money with Starlink & Starshield.
See the Space News article Pentagon embracing SpaceX’s Starshield for future military satcom
https://spacenews.com/pentagon-embracing-spacexs-starshield-for-future-military-satcom/