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Decade Top 10 Launch Vehicles
by
edkyle99
on 29 Dec, 2019 16:21
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Assuming we've seen the last launch of the year, here are my counts for the top ten launch vehicle families of the ending decade (with the second ten subsequently added). This is the first time that R-7 has not topped a decade list since the 1960s, when Thor was on top.
UPDATED 12/30/19
2010-2019 Orbital Launch Totals
Top 10 Launch Vehicle Families
by Total Orbital Launches
LV Family Launches(Failures)
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CZ2-CZ4 (DF-5) 186(6)
R-7 158(7)
Falcon 9/Heavy 80(2)
Proton 72(8)
Atlas 5 62(0)
Ariane 5 57(1)
PSLV 34(1)
H-2A/B 31(0)
Delta 4M/Heavy 29(0)
Rokot/Strela 21(1)
Vega 14(1)
Zenit 13(1)
Antares 11(1)
Electron 10(1)
R36/Dnepr 9(0)
KZ-1(A) 9(0)
Thor/Delta 8(0)
CZ-11 8(0)
GSLV 8(2)
STS 6(0)
Soyuz 2-1v 6(1)
Safir 6(3)*
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- Ed Kyle
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#1
by
Comga
on 29 Dec, 2019 16:37
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From one pedant to another:
The second failure for Falcon wasn’t actually a launch.
If there was an equivalent event for the Chinese DF-5 family would we be certain to have knowledge of it?
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#2
by
edkyle99
on 29 Dec, 2019 16:47
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From one pedant to another:
The second failure for Falcon wasn’t actually a launch.
If there was an equivalent event for the Chinese DF-5 family would we be certain to have knowledge of it?
The numbers do not include the AMOS 6 pre-launch failure. They include F9-4/CRS-1 (Oct 8, 2012) and F9-20/CRS-7 (Jun 28, 2015). These are launch vehicle failures (failure to reach planned orbit(s)), not mission failures, etc.
- Ed Kyle
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#3
by
Paul Howard
on 30 Dec, 2019 12:45
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Is Ariane 5 (1) failure related to Vega as a family member of Ariane 5?
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#4
by
ugordan
on 30 Dec, 2019 13:12
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Is Ariane 5 (1) failure related to Vega as a family member of Ariane 5?
Wrong launch azimuth on VA241?
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#5
by
Joachim
on 30 Dec, 2019 13:28
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BTW This decade ends on December 31, 2020. There was no year "0". So 2019 is the tenth year in this decade.
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#6
by
edkyle99
on 30 Dec, 2019 13:56
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Is Ariane 5 (1) failure related to Vega as a family member of Ariane 5?
Wrong launch azimuth on VA241?
Right. Vega itself was 14(1) as an orbital launcher, 15(1) overall, during the decade. It would be, I think, 11th on the list, followed by Zenit at 13(1), Antares at 11(1), and Electron at 10(1).
- Ed Kyle
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#7
by
niwax
on 30 Dec, 2019 14:06
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The most impressive thing with this list is that Electrons yearly rate next year alone might be close to putting it into the top ten for the entire last decade. Exciting stuff ahead.
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#8
by
edkyle99
on 30 Dec, 2019 14:21
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The most impressive thing with this list is that Electrons yearly rate next year alone might be close to putting it into the top ten for the entire last decade. Exciting stuff ahead.
Hard to image what the list will look like 10 years from now! What I find most interesting about this list is that it shows clearly that only two launch vehicle families (CZ/DF-5 and R-7) averaged better than one launch per month over the entire decade. Now, we have projections of a launch a week, etc., by multiple rockets. China, for example, did just that with KZ-1A late in the year.
- Ed Kyle
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#9
by
anik
on 30 Dec, 2019 14:41
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R-7 158(6)
Proton 71(8 )
I have 163 Soyuz and 72 Proton launches.
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#10
by
edkyle99
on 30 Dec, 2019 16:33
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R-7 158(6)
Proton 71(8 )
I have 163 Soyuz and 72 Proton launches.
Thanks! 72 for Proton is correct, and I'm updating with this correction.
My R-7 count does not include Soyuz 2.1v, but when I add 6 Soyuz 2.1v to 158 I get 164, so something still there to investigate. Perhaps it is because Gunters Space does not yet show the December 18 VS23 launch on the R-7 page?
- Ed Kyle
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#11
by
smoliarm
on 30 Dec, 2019 18:09
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For what it worth,
I have for 2010-2019
Proton ... 72( 8 )
Soyuz ... 164 -- including 6 Soyuz 2.1v and one last Molniya
but I have eight failures listed for Soyuz:
Aug 24, 2011 ... Progress M-12M ... Soyuz-U ... LF ... 3d stg failure
Dec 23, 2011 ... Meridian 5 (№ 15L) ... Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat-M ... LF ... 3d stg failure
Aug 22, 2014 ... Galileo 5, Galileo 6 ... Soyuz-STB/Fregat-MT ... PLF ... Fregat-MT: Satellites placed in wrong orbits due to freezing of hydrazine in Fregat upper stage.
Apr 28, 2015 ... Progress M-27M Soyuz-2.1a ... LF ... 3d stg failure
Dec 05, 2015 ... Kanopus-ST, KYuA-1 ... Soyuz-2.1v/Volga ... LF ... 3d stg: separation failure for Kanopus ST
Dec 01, 2016 ... Progress-MS 4 ... Soyuz-U ... LF ... 3d stg failure
Nov 28, 2017 ... Meteor-M 2-1, Baumanets 2, SEAM et al. ... Soyuz-2.1b/Fregat-M LF ... Fregat failure
Oct 11, 2018 ... Soyuz MS-10 ... Soyuz-FG ... LF ... Failure at s1-s2 sep
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#12
by
Comga
on 30 Dec, 2019 18:39
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BTW This decade ends on December 31, 2020. There was no year "0". So 2019 is the tenth year in this decade.
Please don’t
This silliness has consumed pages of posts with vey serious arguments on both sides. (The “Roaring Twenties” generally are not thought to include 1930. ;-) )
Let’s not repeat that.
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#13
by
JBF
on 30 Dec, 2019 19:12
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From one pedant to another:
The second failure for Falcon wasn’t actually a launch.
If there was an equivalent event for the Chinese DF-5 family would we be certain to have knowledge of it?
The numbers do not include the AMOS 6 pre-launch failure. They include F9-4/CRS-1 (Oct 8, 2012) and F9-20/CRS-7 (Jun 28, 2015). These are launch vehicle failures (failure to reach planned orbit(s)), not mission failures, etc.
- Ed Kyle
Shouldn't that be F9-19 , I thought 20 was the Orbcomm flight.
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#14
by
Rik ISS-fan
on 30 Dec, 2019 20:16
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Thanks a lot for this overview Edkyle99, and thanks for the corrections Anik and Smoliarm.
What stands out to me, is the fact that R-7 (Soyuz) the first ICBM is still the second most used launch vehicle. And it will remain highly used in the Jan.1 2020 - Dec. 31 2029 period.
The most used launcher family the Long March 2 - 4 have also been in use since the 1970s.
What also stands out, is the low usage of the: Pegasus 4(0), Minotour I 3(0), Minotaur IV/V/C 7(1), Angara family 2(0) and CZ5-CZ7 family 8 (2). If I would have made predictions they would have included much more of these. AFAIK the US is really wasting a lot of ICBM/SLBM surplus motors.
I possibly have some corrections: KZ1(A) was used 9x all succesfull.
I think there are missing: (Long March) CZ11 8 (0)
A question, do others also want the usage numbers for the 2000-2009 period to compare?
And can we also make predictions and wishes for the coming decade?
Let's add my first wish; that most hypergolic systems will be phased out.
(CZ2-CZ4, Proton, ?PSLV, Rockot/Stella, Dnepr).
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#15
by
su27k
on 31 Dec, 2019 01:22
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So Falcon 9/Heavy is the only new LV family that was introduced in this decade and made to the top 10.
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#16
by
Comga
on 31 Dec, 2019 01:35
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From one pedant to another:
The second failure for Falcon wasn’t actually a launch.
If there was an equivalent event for the Chinese DF-5 family would we be certain to have knowledge of it?
The numbers do not include the AMOS 6 pre-launch failure. They include F9-4/CRS-1 (Oct 8, 2012) and F9-20/CRS-7 (Jun 28, 2015). These are launch vehicle failures (failure to reach planned orbit(s)), not mission failures, etc.
- Ed Kyle
That still begs the question.
F9-4/CRS-1 made it to the first target orbit where it released two test satellites.
If a similar partial failure (or near total success
) has happened in China would we ever know about it?
I doubt it.
It’s the downside of a free society. It is somewhat harder to hide problems.
So is that tally REALLY objective?
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#17
by
edkyle99
on 31 Dec, 2019 04:42
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A question, do others also want the usage numbers for the 2000-2009 period to compare?
Only four LV families are on both "top-10" lists for the past two decades, the other six since retired.
2000-2009 Orbital Launch Totals
Top 10 Launch Vehicle Families
by Total Orbital Launches
LV Family Launches(Failures)
----------------------------------
R-7 110(3)
Proton 82(4)
CZ2-CZ4 (DF-5) 62(1)
Thor/Delta 61(0)
Ariane 5 45(2)
Zenit 37(4)
STS 33(1)
Atlas 2-3 25(0)
R-14/Kosmos 3 24(1)
Ariane 1-4 23(0)
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- Ed Kyle
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#18
by
freddo411
on 31 Dec, 2019 05:36
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Wow. More F9 flights than Atlas V flights in this decade.
It's hard to fully realize that old space has been eclipsed not just in innovation, but in volume.
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#19
by
cwr
on 31 Dec, 2019 05:43
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Assuming we've seen the last launch of the year, here are my counts for the top ten launch vehicle families of the ending decade (with the second ten subsequently added). This is the first time that R-7 has not topped a decade list since the 1960s, when Thor was on top.
UPDATED 12/30/19
2010-2019 Orbital Launch Totals
Top 10 Launch Vehicle Families
by Total Orbital Launches
LV Family Launches(Failures)
----------------------------------
CZ2-CZ4 (DF-5) 186(6)
R-7 158(7)
Falcon 9/Heavy 80(2)
Proton 72(
Atlas 5 62(0)
Ariane 5 57(1)
PSLV 34(1)
H-2A/B 31(0)
Delta 4M/Heavy 29(0)
Rokot/Strela 21(1)
Vega 14(1)
Zenit 13(1)
Antares 11(1)
Electron 10(1)
R36/Dnepr 9(0)
KZ-1(A) 9(0)
Thor/Delta 8(0)
CZ-11 8(0)
GSLV 8(2)
STS 6(0)
Soyuz 2-1v 6(1)
Safir 6(3)*
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- Ed Kyle
I don't see any mention of the 2 Angara launches in the 201x decade, nor mentioned in any subsequent posts,
unless 6 orbital launches was used as a cutoff for listing?
There are also the Naro 1 launches by South Korea. 2 launched in 201x decade and one in 200x decade.
Since the Naro 1 was basically a URM-1 but with a RD-151 rather than the RD-191 used in Angara, one might
consider Naro as part of the Angara family, though that is a bit of a stretch.
If there is a minimum number of launches cutoff, it would be worth identifying the constraint.
Carl
) has happened in China would we ever know about it?