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#60
by
B. Hendrickx
on 30 Jan, 2020 08:57
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Another update on Seesat :
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2020/0211.htmlFrom: Michael R Thompson via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Thu, 30 Jan 2020 05:31:48 +0000
Took a deeper look tonight.
I can't find any Russian satellites that are as closely sync'd as USA 245.
If you want to be very generous, there are Russian satellites in a similar plane that yield marginal passes (~500km) every few days:
* Cosmos 2523: A previous inspection satellite from 2017
* Resurs P1: An earth observation satellite. There's a very close pass on Jan 30 (100km), but the rest are in the 500km range every ~2 days.
Additionally, the first maneuver on January 21st was perfectly sync'd with the closest approach of Cosmos 2542 and USA 245, which before this set of maneuvers, were occurring every 11 days.
With continuous visibility from a trailing distance of 100-500km, and a low required slew rate (consistently less than 0.1 deg/s) observation would be quite possible.
Dare I say likely?
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#61
by
Eric Hedman
on 31 Jan, 2020 21:14
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#62
by
Star One
on 01 Feb, 2020 08:02
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Be interesting to see if over time the other 3 KH-11s gain their own watchers.
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#63
by
B. Hendrickx
on 01 Feb, 2020 22:32
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Be interesting to see if over time the other 3 KH-11s gain their own watchers.
There is another 14F150 satellite (Kosmos-2519/2542 type) planned to be shipped to Plesetsk, apparently later this year. That is clear from insurance documentation for the transportation of NPO Lavochkin payloads to Russian launch sites that appeared online about two weeks ago:
https://zakupki.gov.ru/223/purchase/public/purchase/info/common-info.html?regNumber=32008759248(see the final payload in the attached list)
If these transports are listed in chronological order, 14F150 would be the final NPO Lavochkin payload to be delivered to its launch site this year. That could mean that it will not fly until next year. But whenever it flies, it will be interesting to see into what kind of orbit
it will be placed.
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#64
by
Alter Sachse
on 02 Feb, 2020 08:58
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Be interesting to see if over time the other 3 KH-11s gain their own watchers.
They wanted to know what a KH-11 satellite looked like.
The others look just like it.
USA 290 would be interesting, if it belongs to this series.
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#65
by
zubenelgenubi
on 05 Feb, 2020 01:26
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If the attitude of an reconnaissance satellite, with an accurate timestamp, and with an accurately determined orbit, is measured from such an inspector satellite, could not the area observed by the reconnaissance satellite be determined?
The adversary would not know IF an image was taken, or what a hypothetical image contains, but it would set more stringent parameters on the what and when of reconnaissance observations.
That's valuable intelligence.
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#66
by
Star One
on 06 Feb, 2020 06:50
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I wonder why an older KH-11 was chosen rather than what’s theorised to be the first of a new generation?
Was it because they had to plan the launch and orbit(s) for the mission based on a target already in orbit.
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#67
by
B. Hendrickx
on 06 Feb, 2020 08:59
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Looks like USA-245 and Kosmos-2542 are playing a cat-and-mouse game in space. According to analysis of the latest orbital data by Michael R. Thompson, USA-245 made a maneuver on January 23, barely one day after Kosmos-2542 synchronized its orbital period with that of USA-245. Then, on January 31, Cosmos-2542 performed a burn that resulted in it drifting back towards USA-245, with closest approach expected around February 7-10. However, on February 3 USA-245 changed its orbit yet again, pushing off the closest approach for another couple of weeks to February 20.
See Michael Thompson's twitter page:
https://twitter.com/m_r_thomp
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#68
by
Steven Pietrobon
on 07 Feb, 2020 06:09
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If one of the purposes of these missions is to cause the KH-11 to make frequent orbital maneuvers trying to avoid close approaches, thus using using up its limited supply of propellant and reducing its lifetime, the Russians may well be succeeding!
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#69
by
Star One
on 07 Feb, 2020 07:27
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If one of the purposes of these missions is to cause the KH-11 to make frequent orbital maneuvers trying to avoid close approaches, thus using using up its limited supply of propellant and reducing its lifetime, the Russians may well be succeeding!
Hence the choice of one that’s been on orbit longer and therefore already used up more of its propellant supply.
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#70
by
zubenelgenubi
on 08 Feb, 2020 22:25
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#71
by
B. Hendrickx
on 18 Feb, 2020 23:46
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This belongs in the splinter thread on the Space Policy sub-forum, but since only L2 members can post there, I’ll post this here anyway. Perhaps someone can cross-post this to that thread. Any further discussion should take place there.
On February 17 the Russian Foreign Ministry responded to the remarks made a week earlier by the commander of the US Space Force John Raymond on the maneuvers of Kosmos-2542 in the vicinity of USA-245.
https://ria.ru/20200217/1564880619.htmlThe official response did not come in the form of a press release, but was formulated in this report by the RIA Novosti news agency:
https://ria.ru/20200217/1564880619.htmlHere is my quick translation of all the ministry’s statements as quoted by RIA Novosti:
This provocative attack is another attempt by the US to justify the action it is taking itself to place weapons in space while shifting to others the responsibility for the destabilization of the space security situation.
The propaganda campaign against Moscow is continuing, the purpose of which is to mask the destructive actions of Washington which provoke an arms race in outer space and its transformation into a new field of military confrontation, as well as in order to achieve the allocation of large-scale funding for such purposes.
We emphasize that the movements of our satellite do not pose a threat to the American space object and, most importantly, do not violate any norms and principles of international law.
Such misunderstandings could be [avoided] by activating a mechanism to conduct international consultations, as envisaged by article IX of the 1967 [UN Outer Space Treaty]. Preventing such misunderstandings would contribute to the building of a full and meaningful Russian-American dialogue on a broad range of issues related to the prevention of an arms race in outer space.
Such public accusations, which are on the verge of informational aggression and are often made by our American counterparts, do not contribute to predictability, confidence and the easing of tension.
Russia gives priority to the non-discriminatory use and exploration of outer space exclusively for peaceful purposes and, unlike the US, does not nurture plans to solve problems in orbit by using strike weapons. Proof of this is the large number of number of initiatives taken in this field by Russia and supported by a solid group of like-minded parties.
At present there is and can be no alternative to the Russian-Chinese proposal to develop an international legally binding instrument to keep space free of weapons of any kind on the basis of the Russian-Chinese draft agreement on preventing the placement of weapons in outer space, the use of force or the threat of force against space objects. We are planning to actively continue work in that direction, aimed at receiving concrete results.
The realization of America’s plans to militarize space will inflict irreparable damage on the existing system to ensure the safety of space activities.All earlier attempts by Washington to establish its own superiority in the military field invariably led to increasing tension and new spirals in the arms race”.
We are again calling on the United States to show prudence and abandon irresponsible adventures, fraught with extremely negative consequences for the entire world community, and for the United States themselves. It is clear that the appearance of weapons in space runs counter to the practice of international cooperation in the exploration and use of space for peaceful purposes”.
More Cold War rhetoric…
There’s hypocrisy on both sides here: Raymond concealing the fact that it was the US that pioneered the use of inspection satellites (and is still actively using them) and the Russians seemingly claiming they have no plans for developing a counterspace capability. Isn't Russia the country most actively working on counterspace systems? There is evidence for at least eight such projects:
- Nudol (ground-based kinetic ASAT system)
- Kalina (ground-based laser system to dazzle/blind satellite sensors)
- Sokol-Eshelon (air-based laser system to dazzle/blind satellite sensors)
- Burevestnik (possible co-orbital ASAT system)
- Tirada-2S (ground-based electronic jamming of satellites)
- Ekipazh (nuclear-powered satellite possibly intended for electronic warfare)
- Rudolf (“mobile anti-satellite complex”)
- a reincarnated version of the Soviet-era Kontakt project (air-based kinetic ASAT system) (although that may be what the Russians now call Rudolf)
zubenelgenubi: cross-posted!
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#72
by
B. Hendrickx
on 18 Mar, 2020 18:34
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Michael Thompson tweeted this update on March 11:
https://twitter.com/m_r_thompCosmos 2542, the Russian inspection satellite of recent interest, was set to make another set of close passes to USA 245 sometime in the next week. But based on recent observations from @HAMSATNL, USA-245 made a small maneuver on the 5th that will put it at a distance of thousands of kilometers for weeks to come if not months.This is the largest "avoidance maneuver" that USA 245 has performed as a part of this dance. (There was a large maneuver back in January that I am assuming was a nominal stationkeeping maneuver.)
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#73
by
B. Hendrickx
on 15 May, 2020 22:44
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Kosmos-2542 significantly lowered its perigee between 22 and 27 April. Before the maneuvers it was in a 372x913 km orbit and currently it is in a 303x909 km orbit. It still comes relatively close to USA-245 every 8 to 9 days (today there was a pass at a distance of about 69 km), but the orbital planes of the two satellites are gradually drifting apart. USA-245 is now in a 269x1018 km orbit.
Kosmos-2543, the subsatellite deployed from Kosmos-2542, has not shown any activity for a long time and is now in a 588x860 km orbit. Its closest passes to USA-245 now come at 4 day intervals (for instance, on 25 May and 6 June the closest distance will be 151 km and 146 km respectively). Its orbital plane is also drifting away from that of USA- 245.
My thanks to Nico Janssens for providing this update.
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#74
by
russianhalo117
on 18 May, 2020 23:58
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Kosmos-2542 significantly lowered its perigee between 22 and 27 April. Before the maneuvers it was in a 372x913 km orbit and currently it is in a 303x909 km orbit. It still comes relatively close to USA-245 every 8 to 9 days (today there was a pass at a distance of about 69 km), but the orbital planes of the two satellites are gradually drifting apart. USA-245 is now in a 269x1018 km orbit.
Kosmos-2543, the subsatellite deployed from Kosmos-2542, has not shown any activity for a long time and is now in a 588x860 km orbit. Its closest passes to USA-245 now come at 4 day intervals (for instance, on 25 May and 6 June the closest distance will be 151 km and 146 km respectively). Its orbital plane is also drifting away from that of USA- 245.
My thanks to Nico Janssens for providing this update.
Note that OTV-6 Is able to observe USA-245 to possibly monitor the payloads of this launch??:
From seesat-l, C Bassa: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2020/0159.html
Passive radio observations of OTV 6 have been obtained on three passes, the first directly after launch, the other two earlier today.
Observations reduced to derive orbit--using the two observations of the s/c on-orbit, as opposed to including the ascent observation: 391 km x 392 km x 45.0 deg.
Further analysis by Ted Molczan: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2020/0160.html
This orbit provides a repeating ground track: 46 revolutions in 3 days.
And Nico Janssen: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2020/0163.html , provides an updated TLE, then notes that OTV-6 passed USA-290 at a distance of 29 km earlier today--this would allow the KH-11 satellite to perform extremely high resolution sat-squared visual imaging.
Two other passes of KH-11 satellites also occurred, that would allow approximately a more "normal" KH-11 resolution: ~10 cm (with no atmosphere to muddle actual resolution).
OTV-6 passes USA-224 at a distance of 370 km.
OTV-6 passes USA-245 at a distance of 490 km.
The additional analysis by Marco Langbroek is here: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/May-2020/0164.html
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#75
by
B. Hendrickx
on 15 Jun, 2020 09:46
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https://forum.novosti-kosmonavtiki.ru/index.php?topic=17001.540As reported by Igor Lisov on the NK forum, Kosmos-2543 (2019-079D) has made a series of maneuvers as a result of which it is now flying in close formation with Kosmos-2535 (2019-039A), one of the four satellites launched from Plesetsk on July 10 last year. Between December 16 and June 4, Kosmos-2543 was in a 590x859 km and its orbital plane slowly drifted towards that of Kosmos-2535. Between June 4 and June 10 Kosmos-2543 made at least six maneuvers, as a result of which its orbital parameters now closely match those of Kosmos-2535. Kosmos-2543 is now in a 590x630 km orbit and Kosmos-2535 in a 605x616 km orbit, but their mean orbital altitude is nearly the same.
Based on currently available orbital data, the closest distance between the two so far has been about 60 km. However, one visual observer reported seeing them only 12 seconds apart this weekend, so they are apparently getting closer to one another:
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jun-2020/0124.htmlKosmos-2535 has been involved in at least two mysterious debris shedding events in September and January. Possibly, Kosmos-2543 is now taking a close look at Kosmos-2535 to observe the effects of those events, whatever their purpose was. It will be interesting to see what happens with these two satellites in the coming days and weeks.
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#76
by
Liss
on 17 Jun, 2020 09:13
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SeeSat-L member Paul Maley reported his video of the pair:
Thanks to Jay Respler I recorded these two objects several hours ago at a range of 748km from a site in Surprise, AZ. The two are considerable different in reflectivity and that is evident in the video. Both are somewhat close together but easily distinguishable.
The link is
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#77
by
B. Hendrickx
on 15 Jul, 2020 23:05
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The Russian Ministry of Defense issued the following brief press release today:
"Today, during testing of the latest space technology, a close-up study was carried out of a domestic satellite with the help of specialized equipment on a small satellite. As a result, the Ministry of Defense received valuable information on the technical condition of the studied object which was relayed to ground control assets".
The press release has so far not appeared on the website of the Ministry of Defense, but was disseminated by a number of Russian news outlets, including Interfax-AVN:
https://www.militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=0&nid=534933&lang=RUAlthough the satellites are not identified in the press release, they must be Kosmos-2543 (the inspector) and Kosmos-2535 (the "studied object"). The two have been flying in close formation for about a month now, so the statement that the observations were carried out "today" is somewhat misleading. Possibly, the Ministry of Defense statement signals the end of the joint flight of Kosmos-2543 and Kosmos-2535.
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#78
by
B. Hendrickx
on 17 Jul, 2020 22:28
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Jonathan McDowell on Twitter:
Following the discussion by the Russian Defense Ministry of the close satellite approach between the Kosmos-2543 inspector satellite and the Kosmos-2535 target, a new debris object has been cataloged in a 505 x 784 km orbit associated with Kosmos-2543.
Object 45915 appears to have separated from Kosmos-2543 at about 0750 UTC Jul 15 at a fairly high relative velocity (I don't entirely trust my code here so someone else should look at this).
This is very reminiscent of what happened in late October 2017 during the Kosmos-2519/2521 mission (satellites of the same type as Kosmos-2542
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#79
by
B. Hendrickx
on 17 Jul, 2020 22:45
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Sorry, pressed the "send" button too early in the previous post.
This is very reminiscent of what happened in late October 2017 during the Kosmos-2519/2521 mission (satellites of the same type as Kosmos-2542 and 2543). While the two were flying in close formation, Kosmos-2521 released a subsatellite called Kosmos-2523 which immediately ended up in an orbit with a perigee about 100 km lower than Kosmos-2521 and after that remained inert. US officials later called Kosmos-2523 a high-speed projectile, claiming it was used for an anti-satellite test. This time not only the perigee, but also the apogee significantly differs from that of the ejection orbit.
After the October 2017 test, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a statement saying an inspector satellite had been released from Kosmos-2521 (which it clearly wasn't). This time the Ministry of Defense also issued a press release, but it only mentioned a close-up inspection of one satellite by another, not saying anything about the release of a subsatellite. Even if the object ejected on July 15 is identical to Kosmos-2523, it remains to be seen if it will get a Kosmos number this time. We may not find out until Russia launches its next Glonass satellite next month.