Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3  (Read 345264 times)

Offline Negan

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #60 on: 11/14/2019 09:59 pm »
Also, nothing is preventing Boeing from ending up with Falcon as its launcher after the "test" phase is complete.

Starship plans makes this a no-go.

“By creating a single system that can service a variety of markets, SpaceX can redirect resources from Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Dragon to Starship—which is fundamental in making the system affordable,” SpaceX says on its website.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2019 10:28 pm by Negan »

Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #61 on: 11/14/2019 10:03 pm »
Starship, OmegA, New Glenn, and what I ate for lunch today all have one thing in common - they are OFF TOPIC for this thread.  How about we keep it focused on Commercial Crew instead?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #62 on: 11/14/2019 10:20 pm »
The OIG report clearly hit a nerve on the Boeing PCM additional money:

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1195112566609068032

Quote
NASA’s comment to me about today’s explosive IG report on the commercial crew program.

I have no idea what really went on within NASA, so not sure who is closer to the truth (although I have some sympathy with NASA’s last point about basing a conclusion solely on unnamed officials).

Offline brainbit

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #63 on: 11/14/2019 10:39 pm »
Today the abort motors where tested on the Dragon2 and appears to of been successful. The report talks about flaps over the super draco motors which is speculated to be to keep out salt water. Only during the abort will these flaps do anything. EM expects to perform the in flight abort in 4-6 weeks, I assume these flaps will come into play then, but this dragon2 wont be used again for crew but only for cargo, does this mean the cargo version of dragon2 will also have the super draco motors? or does it mean SpaceX might be planning to reuse the Dragon2 for none NASA commercial passengers?   

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #64 on: 11/14/2019 10:45 pm »
Today the abort motors where tested on the Dragon2 and appears to of been successful. The report talks about flaps over the super draco motors which is speculated to be to keep out salt water. Only during the abort will these flaps do anything. EM expects to perform the in flight abort in 4-6 weeks, I assume these flaps will come into play then, but this dragon2 wont be used again for crew but only for cargo, does this mean the cargo version of dragon2 will also have the super draco motors? or does it mean SpaceX might be planning to reuse the Dragon2 for none NASA commercial passengers?   

The cargo version of Dragon 2 is not a reused crew capsule and it doesn't have SuperDraco engines.

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #65 on: 11/14/2019 10:53 pm »
Hard to explain large price difference. LV and expendable service module accounts for some of it, maybe $100m.
Starliner should be cheaper to refurbish than Dragon as it lands on land.

Offline Hog

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #66 on: 11/14/2019 11:44 pm »
Today the abort motors where tested on the Dragon2 and appears to of been successful. The report talks about flaps over the super draco motors which is speculated to be to keep out salt water. Only during the abort will these flaps do anything. EM expects to perform the in flight abort in 4-6 weeks, I assume these flaps will come into play then, but this dragon2 wont be used again for crew but only for cargo, does this mean the cargo version of dragon2 will also have the super draco motors? or does it mean SpaceX might be planning to reuse the Dragon2 for none NASA commercial passengers?   

The cargo version of Dragon 2 is not a reused crew capsule and it doesn't have SuperDraco engines.

IOW
Dragon 2 COTS vehicles will NOT be reused Commercial Crew vehicles.

EDIT Wiki needs a rewrites, its still saying  Crew Dragon-2s will be reflown as cargo vehicles.  I'm sure this was ruled out some time ago.
« Last Edit: 11/14/2019 11:49 pm by Hog »
Paul

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #67 on: 11/15/2019 12:14 am »
Hard to explain large price difference. LV and expendable service module accounts for some of it, maybe $100m.
Starliner should be cheaper to refurbish than Dragon as it lands on land.

The 60% calculation doesn't count costs prior to CCtCap. For instance, for CCiCap, Boeing was paid $460 million and SpaceX was paid $440 million. This reduces the percentage difference if not the difference in absolute terms. It also doesn't factor in money paid by NASA for the dragon program as a whole which would add $278 million in initial development funds before more milestones were added later bringing the total to $398 million for dragon development under the COTS program (again, not captured in dragon development costs under this calculation). Add all that up, and the difference is ~35%. When looking at the 35% difference, we have to remember that NASA is ordering 3-4 dragon flights per year and only 1 CST-100 flight per year. When these contracts were awarded, SpaceX was an incumbent cargo transporation supplier and could have more reasonable assurance that they could share program costs between both cargo and crew.

Offline gongora

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #68 on: 11/15/2019 12:27 am »
Hard to explain large price difference. LV and expendable service module accounts for some of it, maybe $100m.
Starliner should be cheaper to refurbish than Dragon as it lands on land.

The 60% calculation doesn't count costs prior to CCtCap. For instance, for CCiCap, Boeing was paid $460 million and SpaceX was paid $440 million. This reduces the percentage difference if not the difference in absolute terms. It also doesn't factor in money paid by NASA for the dragon program as a whole which would add $278 million in initial development funds before more milestones were added later bringing the total to $398 million for dragon development under the COTS program (again, not captured in dragon development costs under this calculation). Add all that up, and the difference is ~35%. When looking at the 35% difference, we have to remember that NASA is ordering 3-4 dragon flights per year and only 1 CST-100 flight per year. When these contracts were awarded, SpaceX was an incumbent cargo transporation supplier and could have more reasonable assurance that they could share program costs between both cargo and crew.

The 60% calculation is per operational flight, after development.  CCiCap and COTS are irrelevant.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #69 on: 11/15/2019 02:55 am »
I wonder what was the cost per seat for the last Space Shuttle flights?  Mutiply 90 million per seat  $$ times crew of 7 would been 630 million $$per flight . Will the commercial crew flights  be that much cheaper than Space Shuttle considering also we lost almost 10 years of our own ability to launch astronauts plus the ability to launch massive payloads also???

Shuttle has a huge fixed cost, in the last two years it's about $3B per year (which is $3.5B in today's dollars, the budget for early years is even higher), while Commercial Cargo and Crew together is only $1.8B per year, so Shuttle would be at least twice as expensive as Commercial Cargo and Crew.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #70 on: 11/15/2019 02:55 am »
I wonder what was the cost per seat for the last Space Shuttle flights?  Mutiply 90 million per seat  $$ times crew of 7 would been 630 million $$per flight . Will the commercial crew flights  be that much cheaper than Space Shuttle considering also we lost almost 10 years of our own ability to launch astronauts plus the ability to launch massive payloads also???

This has always been a super interesting question. It should be noted that the FY 2010 budget request pegs space shuttle costs at $3.157 billion($3.667 billion in 2019 dollars)[1]. The FY2019 budget request pegs "space transportation" costs at $2.109 billion[2]. It should be pointed out that the space shuttle was both supplying and building the international space station at the time.

[1]https://www.nasa.gov/pdf/345225main_FY_2010_UPDATED_final_5-11-09_with_cover.pdf
[2]https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/fy19_nasa_budget_estimates.pdf

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #71 on: 11/15/2019 03:00 am »
Didn't see this posted. Here is Eric Berger's article.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/nasa-report-finds-boeing-seat-prices-are-60-higher-than-spacex/
Whoa
So that’s $280M for 4 flights on top of the $4.2B?
From where does the $90M per seat come?
How does NASA get that price for seats on Dragon?

Is this on top of whatever NASA added to Boeing’s contract to “upgrade”  OFT-1 to a 3 crew long duration mission?
Another question would be how NASA could offer a quarter billion dollar contact to one of two competitors without offering it to the other or going for competition, but that one we can only surmise and be cynical.

Remember that these are not cost plus contracts. They are supposed to be “commercial”, although what that means is incredibly vague. It’s EELV all over again, and Boeing knows how to win that game: threaten to drop out (or watch your competitor threaten) because competition drives down prices and get big subsidies to maintain “redundancy”.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online tater

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #72 on: 11/15/2019 03:03 am »
Didn't see this posted. Here is Eric Berger's article.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/nasa-report-finds-boeing-seat-prices-are-60-higher-than-spacex/
Whoa
So that’s $280M for 4 flights on top of the $4.2B?
From where does the $90M per seat come?
How does NASA get that price for seats on Dragon?

Is this on top of whatever NASA added to Boeing’s contract to “upgrade”  OFT-1 to a 3 crew long duration mission?
Another question would be how NASA could offer a quarter billion dollar contact to one of two competitors without offering it to the other or going for competition, but that one we can only surmise and be cynical.

Remember that these are not cost plus contracts. They are supposed to be “commercial”, although what that means is incredibly vague. It’s EELV all over again, and Boeing knows how to win that game: threaten to drop out (or watch your competitor threaten) because competition drives down prices and get big subsidies to maintain “redundancy”.

There's a footnote for the per seat numbers that ends up a couple pages earlier. 6 flights times 4 seats for the total seats.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #73 on: 11/15/2019 03:10 am »
Didn't see this posted. Here is Eric Berger's article.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/nasa-report-finds-boeing-seat-prices-are-60-higher-than-spacex/
From where does the $90M per seat come?
How does NASA get that price for seats on Dragon?

We've known the rough seat price for a while now, see: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35717.msg1921595#msg1921595

Quote
Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M

Offline b0objunior

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #74 on: 11/15/2019 03:14 am »
Didn't see this posted. Here is Eric Berger's article.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/nasa-report-finds-boeing-seat-prices-are-60-higher-than-spacex/
From where does the $90M per seat come?
How does NASA get that price for seats on Dragon?

We've known the rough seat price for a while now, see: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35717.msg1921595#msg1921595

Quote
Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M
Yeah, that was known for a long time.

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #75 on: 11/15/2019 03:15 am »
Didn't see this posted. Here is Eric Berger's article.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/nasa-report-finds-boeing-seat-prices-are-60-higher-than-spacex/
From where does the $90M per seat come?
How does NASA get that price for seats on Dragon?

We've known the rough seat price for a while now, see: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=35717.msg1921595#msg1921595
Quote
Average mission price for SpaceX: $215M
Average seat price for SpaceX (assuming 4 seats per flight): $53.75M
Average mission price for Boeing: $351M
Average seat price for Boeing (assuming 4 seats per flight): $87.75M

Yeah
I forgot that you posted these numbers early this year.
Thanks
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #76 on: 11/15/2019 07:51 am »
Also, nothing is preventing Boeing from ending up with Falcon as its launcher after the "test" phase is complete.

That would leave Commercial Crew with nothing to fly if Falcon is the only then-approved launcher and it is grounded for some reason.

Which is exactly why NASA will never allow Starliner to fly on F9. But such a NASA ruling won't be necessary given that Boeing already is working on a back-up vehicle for Atlas. And it's Vulcan.

Offline mlindner

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #77 on: 11/15/2019 07:58 am »
This makes me physically sick to my stomach. Is there anything SpaceX could get out of suing NASA over this? How does Boeing manage to extract cost+ money out of a fixed price contract? How is this even moral or even legal?
« Last Edit: 11/15/2019 08:00 am by mlindner »
LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline mlindner

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LEO is the ocean, not an island (let alone a continent). We create cruise liners to ride the oceans, not artificial islands in the middle of them. We need a physical place, which has physical resources, to make our future out there.

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #79 on: 11/15/2019 08:03 am »
Elon is commenting on Eric's write-up about the OIG report:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1195143726504370176

Edit: ninja'd by mlindner
« Last Edit: 11/15/2019 08:04 am by woods170 »

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