Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3  (Read 345241 times)

Offline niwax

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #520 on: 10/06/2021 03:52 pm »
...
The most likely scenario is that a new round would be created. When CCtCap was awarded, NASA had talked about a new round called the Crew Transportation Services Round after CCtCap. It is possible that the new round will be restricted to certified providers but for CRS2 NASA did not require prior certification in order to compete (i.e., certification could be done as part of CRS2). I am assuming that the same will be true for the crew transportation services round but I don't know that for sure.

Generally agree that there are a couple paths. However it is done, providers will ultimately need to be certified. That is going to cost non-trivial $$$ whether separated into DDT&E vs. operational, or rolled up into the price of operational missions. IMO going to be tough for NASA to justify engaging additional provider if NASA has to pay a significant portion of the bill for certification.

One wildcard here is what direction the commercial destination/ISS follow-on programs take. I could see NASA planning a number of non-ISS flights to spread the cost for the another 12 mission block buy.
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Offline joek

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #521 on: 10/06/2021 05:03 pm »
One wildcard here is what direction the commercial destination/ISS follow-on programs take. I could see NASA planning a number of non-ISS flights to spread the cost for the another 12 mission block buy.

Still going to require NASA certification for transport and destination. That means $$$ for additional (currently non-certified) transport and destination providers.

Offline niwax

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #522 on: 10/06/2021 05:53 pm »
One wildcard here is what direction the commercial destination/ISS follow-on programs take. I could see NASA planning a number of non-ISS flights to spread the cost for the another 12 mission block buy.

Still going to require NASA certification for transport and destination. That means $$$ for additional (currently non-certified) transport and destination providers.

Sure. But it would be a good reason to spend that $$$, if it looks likely that Boeing can't deliver the needed flight rate. Much like Dream Chaser was already added to CRS-2 instead of increasing Dragon orders.
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Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #523 on: 10/06/2021 08:56 pm »
One wildcard here is what direction the commercial destination/ISS follow-on programs take. I could see NASA planning a number of non-ISS flights to spread the cost for the another 12 mission block buy.

Still going to require NASA certification for transport and destination. That means $$$ for additional (currently non-certified) transport and destination providers.

For CRS2, no additional funding was provided to SNC for certifying Dream Chaser.  I am guessing that it would be the same for the Crew Transportation Services round.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2021 10:18 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #524 on: 10/07/2021 11:20 pm »
At 26m of this video, the issue of what happens after SpaceX post-certification mission 6 was asked by Joey Roulette. Steve Stich said that they are in the early phases of looking at what they can do with SpaceX for missions after their 6th mission and he said that they will look at what they can do with Boeing at some point in the future. He said that he can't talk about it too much but that they were working on it now.

« Last Edit: 10/07/2021 11:36 pm by yg1968 »

Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #525 on: 10/25/2021 12:16 am »
 Per Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) - NASA...
Quote
H.16 NEW ENTRANT
(a) The purpose of this clause is to notify the Contractor that NASA may conduct a subsequent competition due to the loss of an existing CTS provider or if there are additional future NASA requirements for certified crew transportation. NASA will determine if these conditions are met prior to synopsizing and conducting a New Entrant competition. New entrants may compete for all task orders under this contract.
(b) The Government reserves the right to issue a solicitation in the future to seek an additional source(s) for the same or similar efforts/services.

My emphasis
NASA is putting in writing the possibility of Boeing failing to provide crew transport services.

Note: Because NASA did not name Boeing, it could refer to SpaceX. That would be technically correct but grasping at straws, but that won’t happen. Right?
« Last Edit: 10/25/2021 04:23 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #526 on: 10/25/2021 01:54 pm »
Quote
Irene Klotz

@Free_Space Roscosmos says @spacex has acquired enough flight experience for agency to fly cosmonauts on Crew Dragon and expects to discuss with @nasa tomorrow about timeline for crew assignments @DRogozin says at #IAC2021 press conference.

https://twitter.com/Free_Space/status/1452601530536718339


Offline NL-SpaceNews

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #527 on: 10/27/2021 12:41 pm »
Hi

Quick question, because i could not find an answer. Crew Dragon has capacity for a crew of 7. Why is NASA not sending more crew per launch. for example with the possible addition of the cosmonaut, would that be a crew of 5 then..??

regards
Serge vD

Online JayWee

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #528 on: 10/27/2021 12:47 pm »
Hi

Quick question, because i could not find an answer. Crew Dragon has capacity for a crew of 7. Why is NASA not sending more crew per launch. for example with the possible addition of the cosmonaut, would that be a crew of 5 then..??

regards
Serge vD
Originally Dragon had capacity for 7 people, but during Commercial Crew NASA requested changes to seat orientation which reduced the number of seats to current 4. I don't believe they could add them again.

Offline Bananas_on_Mars

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #529 on: 10/27/2021 12:47 pm »
Hi

Quick question, because i could not find an answer. Crew Dragon has capacity for a crew of 7. Why is NASA not sending more crew per launch. for example with the possible addition of the cosmonaut, would that be a crew of 5 then..??

regards
Serge vD
Crew Dragon was designed with capacity of 7 in mind, but this has later been reduced to 4 because of a change of the seat angles (IIRC NASA request to reduce stresses on the astronauts at splash-down. AFAIK in the past SpaceX said they don‘t want to change back to 7 again for other customer.

Offline Tomness

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #530 on: 10/27/2021 12:50 pm »
Hi

Quick question, because i could not find an answer. Crew Dragon has capacity for a crew of 7. Why is NASA not sending more crew per launch. for example with the possible addition of the cosmonaut, would that be a crew of 5 then..??

regards
Serge vD

Because of the G Forces at splash down during an Emergency and Nominally. The Seats rotate up. NASA wanted it redesigned and they only wanted 4 seats. Also the 7 seats would have came with them being able to land on land. So it's all off the Table. Gwen Shotwell said they could still do it but we will see.

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #531 on: 12/04/2021 01:23 pm »
CCtCap contracts do call out a max of six flights though, so it's not just adding a new task order for more flights.

Exactly the RFP specifically provided for a maximum of 6 post-certification missions - PCMs- (see the link below). It wouldn't be fair to new bidders to be excluded from competing for new missions after the PCMs when CCtCap was purposely capped at six PCMs because NASA wanted other missions to fall under the Crew Transportation Services contract (i.e., the next phase). CRS1 wasn't capped by the number of missions, it was capped by the value of the contract (at a maximum of $3.1B per provider), so it was much easier to extend it.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32412.msg1257877#msg1257877


CCtCap contracts do call out a max of six flights though, so it's not just adding a new task order for more flights.

Wrong. CRS contracts were also IDIQ and listed a max number of missions (12 for SpaceX and 8 for Orbital) for the agreed contract value at that time.
That did not mean that 12 and 8 were hard, not-to-exceed, maximum numbers. IDIQ contracts don't work that way. Neither do the IDIQ services contracts of CCtCAP.
12 became 20 and 8 became 11. Something similar will happen to CCtCAP, because listed maximum numbers can be altered by adding additional dollars to the contract value. It was done that way under CRS. It will be done again under CRS2 and CCtCAP will go down the same route.

And in the end I was still right with the other two being wrong. As I expected (not surprisingly since 3 NASA sources told me so months ago) NASA just added three more Crew Dragon missions to the existing CCtCAP contract:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2021/12/03/nasa-to-secure-additional-commercial-crew-transportation/

Key quotes:
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
NASA intends to issue a sole source modification to SpaceX to acquire up to three additional crew flights to the International Space Station as part of its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities (CCtCap) contract.
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.


Lesson to be learned by Gongora and YG1968: contract caps mean exactly nothing. They CAN be changed, as I had already pointed out for CRS.
« Last Edit: 12/04/2021 01:29 pm by woods170 »

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #532 on: 12/04/2021 01:46 pm »
When will we know how much these additional missions will cost NASA?
Have we heard anything indicating that they will be at the same per-mission cost of the initial six PCMs?

Offline woods170

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #533 on: 12/04/2021 08:42 pm »
When will we know how much these additional missions will cost NASA?
Have we heard anything indicating that they will be at the same per-mission cost of the initial six PCMs?
The additional missions will be more expensive to NASA.

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #534 on: 12/04/2021 10:22 pm »
CCtCap contracts do call out a max of six flights though, so it's not just adding a new task order for more flights.

Exactly the RFP specifically provided for a maximum of 6 post-certification missions - PCMs- (see the link below). It wouldn't be fair to new bidders to be excluded from competing for new missions after the PCMs when CCtCap was purposely capped at six PCMs because NASA wanted other missions to fall under the Crew Transportation Services contract (i.e., the next phase). CRS1 wasn't capped by the number of missions, it was capped by the value of the contract (at a maximum of $3.1B per provider), so it was much easier to extend it.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=32412.msg1257877#msg1257877


CCtCap contracts do call out a max of six flights though, so it's not just adding a new task order for more flights.

Wrong. CRS contracts were also IDIQ and listed a max number of missions (12 for SpaceX and 8 for Orbital) for the agreed contract value at that time.
That did not mean that 12 and 8 were hard, not-to-exceed, maximum numbers. IDIQ contracts don't work that way. Neither do the IDIQ services contracts of CCtCAP.
12 became 20 and 8 became 11. Something similar will happen to CCtCAP, because listed maximum numbers can be altered by adding additional dollars to the contract value. It was done that way under CRS. It will be done again under CRS2 and CCtCAP will go down the same route.

And in the end I was still right with the other two being wrong. As I expected (not surprisingly since 3 NASA sources told me so months ago) NASA just added three more Crew Dragon missions to the existing CCtCAP contract:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2021/12/03/nasa-to-secure-additional-commercial-crew-transportation/

Key quotes:
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
NASA intends to issue a sole source modification to SpaceX to acquire up to three additional crew flights to the International Space Station as part of its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities (CCtCap) contract.
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.


Lesson to be learned by Gongora and YG1968: contract caps mean exactly nothing. They CAN be changed, as I had already pointed out for CRS.

No, they had to sole-source it in order to get around the maximum amount of missions. It wasn't just picking up an option. I had mentioned that sole-sourcing was a possibility (see below). Incidentally, other companies are allowed to object to the sole-sourcing.

CRS wasn't capped by the number of missions, it was capped by the amount of cargo. So it was easy to extend it.

I should qualify what I said, if the Boeing delays continue, NASA might be forced to sole-source one mission to SpaceX through a new solicitation and contract. I hope that doesn't happen but it is another possibility.
« Last Edit: 12/04/2021 10:30 pm by yg1968 »

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #535 on: 12/04/2021 11:01 pm »
One important detail that some are missing is that the notice says up to 3 missions, so it might end up being less than 3 post certification missions.

Here is the description of the sole-source notice:

Quote from: NASA
Description

NASA Kennedy Space Center intends to issue a sole source modification to SpaceX under the authority of FAR 6.302-1 to acquire up to three Post Certification Missions (PCMs) under the Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities (CCtCap) contract NNK14MA74C in order to enable NASA to meet its mission requirements to maintain crew onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and to meet obligations under agreements with its International Partners.

According to the NASA Authorization Act of 2015 (H.R. 810 (Feb. 9, 2015)), “It is the policy of the United States to maintain an uninterrupted capability for human space flight and operations in low-Earth orbit, and beyond, as an essential instrument of national security and the capability to ensure continued United States participation and leadership in the exploration and utilization of space.” To fulfill this objective and ensure Crew Transportation System (CTS) services continue to be available for two PCMs each year, it is critical not only to have two CCtCap contractors, but also to ensure that each year both contractors are able and ready to provide PCM services, to ensure redundant and back-up capabilities. Award of up to three additional PCMs to SpaceX with the first launch beginning as early as 2023 is necessary to meet this objective.

Today, NASA has CCtCap contracts with Boeing and SpaceX. Currently, only SpaceX has a CTS that has been certified by NASA to provide crew transportation services to the ISS. SpaceX has currently launched three PCMs to the ISS. Due to technical issues and the resulting delays experienced by Boeing, it is expected that SpaceX will launch its last PCM in March 2023. Awarding up to three additional PCMs to SpaceX will enable NASA to have redundant and back-up capabilities for each PCM, which is essential for the following reasons: (i) the obligation to provide continuous flight availability for the safe operation of the ISS; (ii) the potential for anomalies or accidents; (iii) the potential for unforeseen external factors; and, (iv) risks associated with the design of a safe and reliable CTS. The anomaly with the Boeing Orbital Flight Test (OFT) and subsequent technical issues that led to delays of the OFT-2 flight demonstrate the importance of having redundant and back-up capabilities in order for NASA to meet its mission requirements to maintain crew onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and to meet its obligations under agreements with its International partners to assure continued crewed access to the ISS.

Oral communications are not acceptable in response to this notice.

Interested organizations may submit their capabilities and qualifications to perform the effort electronically via email to Brian Hinerth at [email protected] and Joseph Bell at [email protected] not later than 5:00PM EDT on December 18, 2021. Such capabilities/qualifications will be evaluated solely for the purpose of determining whether or not to conduct this acquisition on a competitive basis. A determination by the Government not to compete this acquisition on a full and open competition basis, based upon responses to this notice, is solely within the discretion of the Government.

NASA Clause 1852.215-84, Ombudsman, is applicable. The Center Ombudsman for this acquisition can be found at https://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/procurement/regs/Procurement-Ombuds-Comp-Advocate-Listing.pdf

FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY: An RFI was posted on October 20, 2021, requesting information from industry to help NASA formulate an acquisition approach for the procurement of additional PCMs. Responses to the October 20, 2021, RFI will be used to inform NASA’s planning for an acquisition approach.

https://sam.gov/opp/c4e1243132fa417bb40829eaf10fe509/view
« Last Edit: 03/01/2022 03:04 am by yg1968 »

Offline baldusi

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #536 on: 12/05/2021 02:58 am »
And in the end I was still right with the other two being wrong. As I expected (not surprisingly since 3 NASA sources told me so months ago) NASA just added three more Crew Dragon missions to the existing CCtCAP contract:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2021/12/03/nasa-to-secure-additional-commercial-crew-transportation/

Key quotes:
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
NASA intends to issue a sole source modification to SpaceX to acquire up to three additional crew flights to the International Space Station as part of its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities (CCtCap) contract.
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.


Lesson to be learned by Gongora and YG1968: contract caps mean exactly nothing. They CAN be changed, as I had already pointed out for CRS.
I think the lesson is that when you have a single possible contractor to supply a national interest critical service, contract limits mean very little. Whom are you gonna contract outside of SpaceX? There's simply no one else to offer such a service within the required timeframe. Thus, a sole-source justified contract extension is the only option. I dare any other company to fill a protest with GAO. It would be thrown out so fast and cause so much bad blood with NASA as to not be an option.
Believe it or not, NASA bureaucracy are capable and resourceful people when not burdened by thumbs in the scale (as in political pressures and such) and federal acquisition regulations do allow for certain common sense.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #537 on: 12/05/2021 03:16 am »
And in the end I was still right with the other two being wrong. As I expected (not surprisingly since 3 NASA sources told me so months ago) NASA just added three more Crew Dragon missions to the existing CCtCAP contract:
https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2021/12/03/nasa-to-secure-additional-commercial-crew-transportation/

Key quotes:
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
NASA intends to issue a sole source modification to SpaceX to acquire up to three additional crew flights to the International Space Station as part of its Commercial Crew Transportation Capabilities (CCtCap) contract.
Quote from: NASA/Linda Herridge
The current sole source modification does not preclude NASA from seeking additional contract modifications in the future for additional transportation services as needed.


Lesson to be learned by Gongora and YG1968: contract caps mean exactly nothing. They CAN be changed, as I had already pointed out for CRS.
I think the lesson is that when you have a single possible contractor to supply a national interest critical service, contract limits mean very little. Whom are you gonna contract outside of SpaceX? There's simply no one else to offer such a service within the required timeframe. Thus, a sole-source justified contract extension is the only option. I dare any other company to fill a protest with GAO. It would be thrown out so fast and cause so much bad blood with NASA as to not be an option.
Believe it or not, NASA bureaucracy are capable and resourceful people when not burdened by thumbs in the scale (as in political pressures and such) and federal acquisition regulations do allow for certain common sense.
How would it even be possible to protest? The requirement is for flights to ISS in a crew-rated vehicle starting in 2023. There is only one such vehicle now, and only one other vehicle (Starliner) with even a chance of being crew-rated and qualified for ISS docking by then. The only other way to meet the requirement would be to use Soyuz, and somehow I don't think anyone plans to bid Soyuz. I don't think SpaceX can get Starship crew-rated and qualified for ISS docking by 2023, and they  aren't going to protest anyway. Boeing has no need to protest, because Their existing Starliner contract effectively gives them alternating flights starting as soon as they are certified.

Offline king1999

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #538 on: 12/05/2021 06:36 am »
I do hope SpaceX to increase their price per flight to at least match that of Boeing to give more funding for the Starship.

Offline soltasto

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #539 on: 12/05/2021 08:47 am »
When will we know how much these additional missions will cost NASA?
Have we heard anything indicating that they will be at the same per-mission cost of the initial six PCMs?
The additional missions will be more expensive to NASA.

Are we really expecting these 3 mission to be sold for more than $220M per missions?

Anyways, we shall see the contract value increase here whenever the contract is actually modified:
https://www.usaspending.gov/award/CONT_IDV_NNK14MA74C_8000

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