Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3

[DanClemmensen]

I would still call that “up front”.  It’s quite near the front end of the vehicle, leaving a huge lever arm.  Not necessarily fatal but starship does seem really big for ISS docking.  Even the shuttle stressed the trusses, right?

Given the age of the ISS, the existing issues with cracks (in the Russian module), I really doubt we will ever see Starship docked with ISS. Suspect NASA will be conservative and keep using commercial crew vehicles.

In a reasonable world, you would simply replace ISS with a customized Starship variant. A nominal non-custom Starship is planned to have almost as much pressurized volume as the ISS, so a non-returning Starship would be quite a bit bigger because it needs smaller tanks. If one is too small, use two. If you need to add stuff, send it up in 100-ton payloads in Starships and plug it in.  But we live in a world wherein the International Space Station involves a lot of International agreements.

[DistantTemple]

I would still call that “up front”.  It’s quite near the front end of the vehicle, leaving a huge lever arm.  Not necessarily fatal but starship does seem really big for ISS docking.  Even the shuttle stressed the trusses, right?

Given the age of the ISS, the existing issues with cracks (in the Russian module), I really doubt we will ever see Starship docked with ISS. Suspect NASA will be conservative and keep using commercial crew vehicles.

In a reasonable world, you would simply replace ISS with a customized Starship variant. A nominal non-custom Starship is planned to have almost as much pressurized volume as the ISS, so a non-returning Starship would be quite a bit bigger because it needs smaller tanks. If one is too small, use two. If you need to add stuff, send it up in 100-ton payloads in Starships and plug it in.  But we live in a world wherein the International Space Station involves a lot of International agreements.

Make them redundant... $$$
Lease the facilities to SpaceX for $1/yr
Invest in a welding training programme for those interested
Hey presto! thousands of jobs. Perhaps paid less and longer hours, but employees get to see their efforts fly in a few months!
Oh and incidentally it will produce Hundreds of Starships ready to fly to Mars :-)

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/10/nasa-likely-to-move-some-astronauts-off-starliner-due-to-extended-delays/

NASA likely to move some astronauts off Starliner due to extended delays
Astronauts assigned to Boeing flights may end up on SpaceX's Crew-5 mission.

ERIC BERGER - 10/5/2021, 1:45 PM

NASA will not make an official announcement for weeks or months, but two sources say the space agency is moving several astronauts from Boeing's Starliner spacecraft onto SpaceX's Crew Dragon vehicle for upcoming missions to the International Space Station.

Later in the article:

The most likely scenario is that Nicole Mann, Josh Cassada, and Jeannette Epps will now fly on the SpaceX Crew-5 mission, targeted for launch no earlier than August 2022 on a Falcon 9 rocket. They are likely to be joined by an international partner astronaut, probably Japan's Koichi Wakata, for the mission.

[frim]

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

[Rebel44]

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to - I expect that if you are one of the last customers the price might go up to pay for fixed costs, but NASA and DoD should have no problem with that.

[FishInferno]

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to - I expect that if you are one of the last customers the price might go up to pay for fixed costs, but NASA and DoD should have no problem with that.

How possible would it be for SpaceX to negotiate a possible swap of Crew Dragon for Starship into the contract?

Something like "If Starship becomes human-rated and approved by NASA on its own (i.e. this effort wouldn't be part of the CC contract) then we can use that instead." I feel like they'll try something similar with Dragon XL and Starship.

[kevinof]

Will take years to get this done and approved and that's from when Starship is actually flying.

I also believe that  SS will never dock with the ISS so in IMO Dragon will be around for a long time.

To much time and money invested.in it to cast away that quickly.

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to - I expect that if you are one of the last customers the price might go up to pay for fixed costs, but NASA and DoD should have no problem with that.

How possible would it be for SpaceX to negotiate a possible swap of Crew Dragon for Starship into the contract?

Something like "If Starship becomes human-rated and approved by NASA on its own (i.e. this effort wouldn't be part of the CC contract) then we can use that instead." I feel like they'll try something similar with Dragon XL and Starship.

[Rebel44]

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to - I expect that if you are one of the last customers the price might go up to pay for fixed costs, but NASA and DoD should have no problem with that.

How possible would it be for SpaceX to negotiate a possible swap of Crew Dragon for Starship into the contract?

Something like "If Starship becomes human-rated and approved by NASA on its own (i.e. this effort wouldn't be part of the CC contract) then we can use that instead." I feel like they'll try something similar with Dragon XL and Starship.

I doubt that will happen in this decade unless Starship gets an LES (launch escape systems).

[TrevorMonty]

SNC are still serious about building crew Dreamchaser. I'm expecting DC to become 3rd option for NASA missions.



Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[abaddon]

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to - I expect that if you are one of the last customers the price might go up to pay for fixed costs, but NASA and DoD should have no problem with that.

How possible would it be for SpaceX to negotiate a possible swap of Crew Dragon for Starship into the contract?

Something like "If Starship becomes human-rated and approved by NASA on its own (i.e. this effort wouldn't be part of the CC contract) then we can use that instead." I feel like they'll try something similar with Dragon XL and Starship.

I doubt that will happen in this decade unless Starship gets an LES (launch escape systems).

Starship will get an LES when 747 gets a LES.  Like airplanes, Starship will be considered safe for transporting humans based on flight history rather than building in escape features.  Falcon/Dragon are going to be around for a while.

On topic (Starship is not Commercial Crew) does this in effect push first CST operational mission to Crew-6?  That would be NET 2023 and means SpaceX would complete all but one flight of their contract before Boeing would fly operational crew, which is pretty crazy to think about.

[abaddon]

SNC are still serious about building crew Dreamchaser. I'm expecting DC to become 3rd option for NASA missions.

Let's not get crazy with the cheese whiz, SNC are struggling to get the cargo version going, let alone a hypothetical crew version.

[TrevorMonty]

SNC are still serious about building crew Dreamchaser. I'm expecting DC to become 3rd option for NASA missions.

Let's not get crazy with the cheese whiz, SNC are struggling to get the cargo version going, let alone a hypothetical crew version.

Still the only 3rd option in pipeline, unless Blue surprises us.


Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[woods170]

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to... <snip>

I will point out that SpaceX said the exact same thing about F1. And then axed it after flight 5, moving multiple customers to the next thing: F9.

IMO, once F9 and FH become financially obsolete (courtesy of having operational Starship) SpaceX will axe F9 and FH the minute Starship is certified for NASA and DoD launches. Payloads still listed for F9 and FH will be moved to Starship.

[Rebel44]

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to... <snip>

I will point out that SpaceX said the exact same thing about F1. And then axed it after flight 5, moving multiple customers to the next thing: F9.

IMO, once F9 and FH become financially obsolete (courtesy of having operational Starship) SpaceX will axe F9 and FH the minute Starship is certified for NASA and DoD launches. Payloads still listed for F9 and FH will be moved to Starship.

True, but with the existing fleet of F9 first stages and Crew Dragon capsules, keeping F9 operational for NASA/DoD for a few more years would be a lot easier decision - and these customers would likely be willing to pay extra. And certifying Starship for really important payloads and crew launches will take some time.

[Cherokee43v6]

SpaceX had said that they will fly F9 as long as customers will want to... <snip>

I will point out that SpaceX said the exact same thing about F1. And then axed it after flight 5, moving multiple customers to the next thing: F9.

IMO, once F9 and FH become financially obsolete (courtesy of having operational Starship) SpaceX will axe F9 and FH the minute Starship is certified for NASA and DoD launches. Payloads still listed for F9 and FH will be moved to Starship.

Don't forget SpaceX's sunk costs in F9 support infrastructure at three different launch sites as well as that of whatever F9 fleet exists at the time of Starship's certification for such flights.  Also, certification to fly human crew for NASA to and from Earth orbit will not necessarily be concurrent with non-crewed flight.  That 'financial obsolescence' is probably a little further out than your statement would tend to indicate.

[Joris]

Will the follow-up commercial crew contracts also require 2 different vehicles, like with the cargo variant? Or will they just extend the Spacex one alone, because that would go against the whole idea of having redundant systems.

[yg1968]

Will the follow-up commercial crew contracts also require 2 different vehicles, like with the cargo variant? Or will they just extend the Spacex one alone, because that would go against the whole idea of having redundant systems.

CCtCap didn't require two providers and neither did CRS2. The follow-on contract is unlikely to make that a requirement. Having said that, you would expect the Crew Transportation Services round to be open to everyone and it is not impossible that NASA would select two or perhaps even three providers.

[yg1968]

We should start hearing about a followup Crew Dragon contract soonish I guess - SpaceX might be done with the current one in 2023.

It’ll be interesting to see how that works out. NASA might be interested in extending only the Dragon contract to 2030, to avoid paying for manrating Vulcan. And SpaceX from their side might not want to keep Flacon 9 flying for another decade if Starship works out.

My guess is that the decision on extending the ISS to 2030 will determine when the Crew Transportation Services contract will occur. 

[yg1968]

SNC are still serious about building crew Dreamchaser. I'm expecting DC to become 3rd option for NASA missions.

Let's not get crazy with the cheese whiz, SNC are struggling to get the cargo version going, let alone a hypothetical crew version.

Still the only 3rd option in pipeline, unless Blue surprises us.

Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

Blue had started working on a biconic capsule under CCDev-2. They are probably still working on it but at a very slow pace.

[yg1968]

SNC are still serious about building crew Dreamchaser. I'm expecting DC to become 3rd option for NASA missions.

Let's not get crazy with the cheese whiz, SNC are struggling to get the cargo version going, let alone a hypothetical crew version.

Still the only 3rd option in pipeline, unless Blue surprises us.

Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

I hope that NASA chooses a third commercial crew provider in the next round. Perhaps the third provider would do a better job of commercializing LEO than Boeing has so far.