Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3

[Zed_Noir]

From the CST-100 thread

SPX-23 is now on the range schedule for 28 Aug.

Because the of the OFT-2 mission profile at the ISS. OFT-2 would have to launch on or before 15 Aug or <4 days from now. Basically not gonna happen!!!!

Which because SPX-23 is at the ISS until 30 Sep. And the rest of the ISS VV schedule for Oct is chock full of VV activities from the Russian side with Crew 3 capping the ending of the month off. October is out as well. So OFT-2 looks to be now a slip of at least 3 months to November.

If OFT-2 launches in Nov and everything works correctly. The best for CFT would be at least 3 months later (time it takes for all the extensive data reviews to certify ready for crew). That is February 2022 which at this point the VV schedules that far out are fairly fluid.

Meaning Starliner will not likely be doing Crew 4 but Crew 5 in the Fall. Crew 4 would be by Dragon.

I have a question that this comment made me think of.

What happens contract wise if SpaceX uses all of it's crew flights up before Starliner is ready for crew?  I know they would keep using Dragon until then...but that is got to have some weird issues with the contracts I would think.

@yg1968 have an answer to the above query with a reply to my post about something similar with the Human Landing System for Artemis.

<snip>
What happens if one of the provider have done 4 flights to the Lunar surface and the other provider is unable to field the next flight on time? Does NASA extended the contract of the provider with the 4 flight to filled in for the other provider?

There could be a follow-on contract if and when NASA gets to that point. The same issue exists for commercial crew under CCtCap.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

With months of further delay to OFT-2, I guess it’s very likely that NASA’s Q4 2022 crew flight will be Dragon Crew-5.

How many months before a crewed flight does NASA have to decide which vehicle it is? (to give the provider enough notice to have a vehicle ready and/or for crew training)

[jketch]

I don't think the Q2 2022 flight has been formally assigned to Dragon yet, though that now appears inevitable, so it would seem that the interval is less than eight months.

[guckyfan]

I have a question that this comment made me think of.

What happens contract wise if SpaceX uses all of it's crew flights up before Starliner is ready for crew?  I know they would keep using Dragon until then...but that is got to have some weird issues with the contracts I would think.

This brings me to another question. What happens contract wise if Starliner is ready after the crew flights of SpaceX are all used? Would then Starliner get to fly every six months until they are equal? Can Boeing? How would or could SpaceX handle a break in flights of several years before they get their next flight?

[lrk]

SpaceX will still have the private Axiom missions to the ISS, and potentially more Inspiration4-style free-flying missions.  Also
given that the ISS has been extended by a few years since the Commercial Crew contracts were awarded, there will either be extensions to the current contract, or a "Commercial Crew 2" like there was CRS2 - which need not start simultaneously for both providers.  So in the long term SpaceX could very well end up flying more total crew rotations than Boeing. 

[1]

I don't imagine SpaceX will exhaust all six missions before Boeing flies, but if it ends up looking like they will, then I assume they'll simply be offered a six-flight contract extension. More likely, I think NASA would wait until Boeing has successfully flown one or two Starliner missions, and offer both companies contract extensions to preserve the original plan of alternating vehicles and maintaining the redundancy of two vehicles. I imagine SpaceX would simply be offered a larger number of missions for how ever many flights they are 'ahead'.

E.g., if Crew-4 flies before Starliner-1, then I could see Boeing being offered an extension of, say 4 flights while SpaceX is offered 8. This keeps two active, redundant, alternating vehicles; but also functionally awards/rewards SpaceX with more total flights. After that, assuming a need still remains, who knows.

[joek]

I don't imagine SpaceX will exhaust all six missions before Boeing flies, but if it ends up looking like they will, then I assume they'll simply be offered a six-flight contract extension. More likely, I think NASA would wait until Boeing has successfully flown one or two Starliner missions, and offer both companies contract extensions to preserve the original plan of alternating vehicles and maintaining the redundancy of two vehicles. I imagine SpaceX would simply be offered a larger number of missions for how ever many flights they are 'ahead'.

E.g., if Crew-4 flies before Starliner-1, then I could see Boeing being offered an extension of, say 4 flights while SpaceX is offered 8. This keeps two active, redundant, alternating vehicles; but also functionally awards/rewards SpaceX with more total flights. After that, assuming a need still remains, who knows.

Generally agree, although not sure I am interpreting the math properly.
What we know:
1. NASA exercised contract for 6 missions from each (SpaceX and Boeing), the max allowed under original contract.
2. NASA needs a mission every six months for ISS crew rotation (simplify to two/year).
3. NASA desire is for a steady state with alternating missions of one/year for each provider.
What we don't know:
4. When Boeing will start PCM (post-certification missions), which will occur only after they complete OFT-2 and CFT.
5. Status of ATP (authority to proceed) for each mission. Of questionable relevance but may be important as to how firm each of those missions are in the pipeline (have not seen information on ATP status).
What we might reasonably posit:
6. Boeing conducts first PCM mission mid- to late-2022 (see #4).

That would imply, starting from mid- to late-2022 under current contract, and assuming an alternating one mission/year for each provider, we are into 2028. For SpaceX, that would imply an additional ~3-4 missions (basically however many SpaceX has completed prior to Boeing's commencement of PCM's) to stretch to 2028, which would need to be under a contract extension.

In short, unclear why would need Boeing +4 and SpaceX +8 unless you think need to cover through ~2032?

[1]

In short, unclear why would need Boeing +4 and SpaceX +8 unless you think need to cover through ~2032?

Naw, you're not missing anything. 4 and 8 were just example numbers; stemming from a hypothetical need assumed for the sake of discussion. In terms of actual need post-2020s, your guess is as good as mine.

[John_Marshall]

I had presumed that Starliner would get some catch-up flights, looking something like this: Crew-3, Crew-4, CST-1, CST-2, Crew-5, CST-3, CST-4, Crew-6, CST-5, CST-6 (and then back to trading off 1:1 if the ISS is extended past 2028).

[Zed_Noir]

I had presumed that Starliner would get some catch-up flights, looking something like this: Crew-3, Crew-4, CST-1, CST-2, Crew-5, CST-3, CST-4, Crew-6, CST-5, CST-6 (and then back to trading off 1:1 if the ISS is extended past 2028).

Might not be a good idea to have consecutive Starliner launches. NASA should review the early Starliner missions extensively before the next Starliner flight. This is Boeing of today not the Boeing from the previous decades.

[cwr]

I had presumed that Starliner would get some catch-up flights, looking something like this: Crew-3, Crew-4, CST-1, CST-2, Crew-5, CST-3, CST-4, Crew-6, CST-5, CST-6 (and then back to trading off 1:1 if the ISS is extended past 2028).

If you look at how NASA's commercial cargo flights went [and as far as relevant terms of
commercial crew seem the same] - NASA flew missions according to their needs without
trying to balance flights from different vendors.

So my expectation during this decade are:

2020    04 --            11 C1
2021    04 C2           10 C3
2022    04 C4           10 S1
2023    04 C5           10 S2
2024    04 C6           10 S3
2025    04 C7           10 S4
2026    04 C8           10 S5
2027    04 C9           10 S6
2028    04 C10          10 S7
2029    04 C11          10 S8

Of course there are the Axiom crew dragon flights that are contracted for as well.
Plus its not guaranteed that Boeing Starliner will be certified in time to fly the October
2022 mission. If not the October 2022 mission would be Crew 5 from SpaceX and
Starliner 1 would be April 2023. Then that pattern repeats.

Carl

Edit: corrected typo.

[Joris]

H.16 NEW ENTRANT
(a) The purpose of this clause is to notify the Contractor that NASA may conduct a subsequent
competition due to the loss of an existing CTS provider or if there are additional future NASA
requirements for certified crew transportation. NASA will determine if these conditions are met
prior to synopsizing and conducting a New Entrant competition. New entrants may compete for all
task orders under this contract.
(b) The Government reserves the right to issue a solicitation in the future to seek an additional
source(s) for the same or similar efforts/services.

This is in both CCtCap contracts: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/CCtCap_Boeing_508.pdf

Under what circumstances will such a competition be held? I assume delays does not mean a loss of a CTS provider. But it is entirely possible that starliner doesn't fly operationally untill 2023 and spacex' CCtCap contract will need to be extended within 1.5 years.

[yg1968]

H.16 NEW ENTRANT
(a) The purpose of this clause is to notify the Contractor that NASA may conduct a subsequent
competition due to the loss of an existing CTS provider or if there are additional future NASA
requirements for certified crew transportation. NASA will determine if these conditions are met
prior to synopsizing and conducting a New Entrant competition. New entrants may compete for all
task orders under this contract.
(b) The Government reserves the right to issue a solicitation in the future to seek an additional
source(s) for the same or similar efforts/services.

This is in both CCtCap contracts: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/CCtCap_Boeing_508.pdf

Under what circumstances will such a competition be held? I assume delays does not mean a loss of a CTS provider. But it is entirely possible that starliner doesn't fly operationally untill 2023 and spacex' CCtCap contract will need to be extended within 1.5 years.

It is unlikely to be exercised at this point. These clauses are there but are seldom exercised. In order to exercise it, a new sollicitation would have to be issued. The more likely scenario is that NASA will start a new round, the Crew Transportation Services contract. A new entrant could be possible in the next round.

[DanClemmensen]

H.16 NEW ENTRANT
(a) The purpose of this clause is to notify the Contractor that NASA may conduct a subsequent
competition due to the loss of an existing CTS provider or if there are additional future NASA
requirements for certified crew transportation. NASA will determine if these conditions are met
prior to synopsizing and conducting a New Entrant competition. New entrants may compete for all
task orders under this contract.
(b) The Government reserves the right to issue a solicitation in the future to seek an additional
source(s) for the same or similar efforts/services.

This is in both CCtCap contracts: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/CCtCap_Boeing_508.pdf

Under what circumstances will such a competition be held? I assume delays does not mean a loss of a CTS provider. But it is entirely possible that starliner doesn't fly operationally untill 2023 and spacex' CCtCap contract will need to be extended within 1.5 years.

It is unlikely to be exercised at this point. These clauses are there but are seldom exercised. In order to exercise it, a new sollicitation would have to be issued. The more likely scenario is that NASA will start a new round, the Crew Transportation Services contract. A new entrant could be possible in the next round.

My guess: SpaceX has no real interest in more Crew Dragon missions, but will keep flying them if NASA has no alternative. They will bid a higher price for such follow-on missions while still underbidding Starliner. What SpaceX will really want to do is bid Starship, assuming they can get it human-qualified before they run out of Crew Dragon availability. Starship flights will be cheaper per-launch than Crew Dragon. Capital cost of leaving a Starship docked at ISS is a consideration, but it's not clear that Starship (in high-volume production) is more expensive than  Crew Dragon, which is more or less semi-custom. With 3 Crew Dragons, they would have nine missions (4.5 years) if Starliner never flies and NASA continues to limit Crew Dragon capsules to  3 missions, so Starship would need to be human-rated by 2025.

[CameronD]

My guess: SpaceX has no real interest in more Crew Dragon missions, but will keep flying them if NASA has no alternative. They will bid a higher price for such follow-on missions while still underbidding Starliner. What SpaceX will really want to do is bid Starship, assuming they can get it human-qualified before they run out of Crew Dragon availability. Starship flights will be cheaper per-launch than Crew Dragon. Capital cost of leaving a Starship docked at ISS is a consideration, but it's not clear that Starship (in high-volume production) is more expensive than  Crew Dragon, which is more or less semi-custom. With 3 Crew Dragons, they would have nine missions (4.5 years) if Starliner never flies and NASA continues to limit Crew Dragon capsules to  3 missions, so Starship would need to be human-rated by 2025.

Is it even possible to dock Starship to the ISS?!?  Others here would be better placed to know, but ISTM that addition of such a large mass to a teeny little IDA might be just a bit too much for it.

It seems fairly clear to an outsider like me that Cargo/Crew Dragon is designed specifically for on-orbit operations whilst Starship is out of this world.

[Zed_Noir]

....
Is it even possible to dock Starship to the ISS?!?  Others here would be better placed to know, but ISTM that addition of such a large mass to a teeny little IDA might be just a bit too much for it.
<snip>

The Starship and the Space Shuttle aren't too dissimilar in size and mass once they get to the ISS.

[CameronD]

....
Is it even possible to dock Starship to the ISS?!?  Others here would be better placed to know, but ISTM that addition of such a large mass to a teeny little IDA might be just a bit too much for it.
<snip>

The Starship and the Space Shuttle aren't too dissimilar in size and mass once they get to the ISS.

But wouldn't the dynamics depend on the hatch location?  ISTM that with the cockpit/hatch up front and most of the rest of it being tankage, there'd be a lot more Starship/engines/mass hanging out way back than the compact little Space Shuttle ever had.  Too much for the ISS's RMGs to handle?

[docmordrid]

>
But wouldn't the dynamics depend on the hatch location?  ISTM that with the cockpit/hatch up front and most of the rest of it being tankage, there'd be a lot more Starship/engines/mass hanging out way back than the compact little Space Shuttle ever had.  Too much for the ISS's RMGs to handle?

SpaceX shows Starship at ISS with a side hatch mounted port...

[Redclaws]

I would still call that “up front”.  It’s quite near the front end of the vehicle, leaving a huge lever arm.  Not necessarily fatal but starship does seem really big for ISS docking.  Even the shuttle stressed the trusses, right?

[kevinof]

I would still call that “up front”.  It’s quite near the front end of the vehicle, leaving a huge lever arm.  Not necessarily fatal but starship does seem really big for ISS docking.  Even the shuttle stressed the trusses, right?

Given the age of the ISS, the existing issues with cracks (in the Russian module), I really doubt we will ever see Starship docked with ISS. Suspect NASA will be conservative and keep using commercial crew vehicles.