Author Topic: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3  (Read 345250 times)

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #440 on: 03/10/2021 07:20 pm »
...
This deal doesn't really help in this case. The Russians aren't likely to evacuate the Russian segment just so the U.S. doesn't have to evacuate theirs (to save a USOS astronaut). Or leave a Russian cosmonaut up without a Soyuz just so the U.S. doesn't have to do the same.

What?  This isn't about the Russians taking a hit for NASA.  If some member of Crew-2 needed to be medically evacuated, all four would go, leaving Vande Hei to tend to the USOS.  The ill or injured member would not return by Soyuz.  Crew members are tied to their capsules by their vehicle-specific suit and in the case of the Soyuz by their custom-molded seat liner.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #441 on: 03/11/2021 05:15 am »
So the way I see this deal is, with some guesstimates on the prices:

A commercial customer pays Axiom say $55M for a flight to Space. Axiom uses $50M of this money to pay Roscosmos to send up a NASA astronaut on Soyuz (keeping $5M profit). NASA spends $80M to send up the Axiom commercial customer on either Dragon 2 or CST100.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #442 on: 03/12/2021 03:08 am »
I wonder what will NASA do if Russians never flies on Commercial Crew. The US-Russian relationship is not getting any better, and Russians are not exactly lying when they say the Commercial Crew vehicles don't have a lot of flight heritage behind them. So what if Russians just refuse to fly on CC for the foreseeable future? Will NASA be able to run the seat swapping scheme for the next 9 years?

Offline yg1968

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Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #444 on: 03/13/2021 02:20 pm »
Ivan Moiseev says that, for the April Soyuz seat, Axiom would pay back Roscosmos with the 2023 commercial crew seat. So it's essentially a barter seat exchange, with Axiom acting as an intermediary. He says that going through Axiom avoids having to get specific approval from the President for the exchange of seats.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://govoritmoskva.ru/news/266449/
« Last Edit: 03/13/2021 02:25 pm by yg1968 »

Offline kdhilliard

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #445 on: 03/13/2021 03:05 pm »
Moiseev's claim that it is a barter for a seat in 2023 contradicts Rogozin's statement that, "the American side will pay for this flight, and Roscosmos will direct the money to the development of the company."

Roscosmos needs money, so Rogozin statement is plausible, but if Moiseev has the real story, then why would Roscosmos want to barter a seat next month for one two years out, particularly with Nauka launching in July?

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #446 on: 03/13/2021 03:29 pm »
Hard to say but it's difficult to take Rogozin's word at face value, given the amount of spin in them:

Quote from: the article
Their "Trampoline", apparently, works so-so. Flights to the ISS are not stable, and therefore there was an urgent need to hedge and send [their guy] on our ship. " According to Rogozin, the American side will pay for this flight, and Roscosmos will direct the money to the development of the company.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2021 09:36 pm by yg1968 »

Offline John-H

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #447 on: 03/13/2021 06:02 pm »
Does this mean that Axiom will sell a seat in 2023 and give the money to Roscosmos?  Do we know how much they will get?

John

Offline leovinus

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #448 on: 03/13/2021 06:06 pm »
Hard to say but it's difficult to take Rogozin' words at face value, given the amount of spin in them:

Quote from: the article
Their "Trampoline", apparently, works so-so. Flights to the ISS are not stable, and therefore there was an urgent need to hedge and send [their guy] on our ship. " According to Rogozin, the American side will pay for this flight, and Roscosmos will direct the money to the development of the company.

You know the feeling when you go to the local car salesman and come away with "mhhh, sounds a bit funny"? That is the feeling I have on this deal.

Firstly, it is well documented and not more than a fact that the Russian government has a very loose relationship with facts. Secondly, upthread someone mentioned "now the President does not need to involved". Right, alarm bells. We do have sanctions against Russia for very good reasons and NASA OIG will have a fun time with urgent double checking that all i's where dotted and all t's are crossed. Finally, giving NASA's history of working constructively with Roscosmos and astronauts flying on Soyuz, suddenly involving an unproven middleman when Commercial Crew is online sounds, questionable maybe, and as a tax payer I'd like OIG to double check that we are getting a good deal.


Offline Comga

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #449 on: 03/13/2021 10:23 pm »
Hard to say but it's difficult to take Rogozin' words at face value, given the amount of spin in them:

Quote from: the article
Their "Trampoline", apparently, works so-so. Flights to the ISS are not stable, and therefore there was an urgent need to hedge and send [their guy] on our ship. " According to Rogozin, the American side will pay for this flight, and Roscosmos will direct the money to the development of the company.

You know the feeling when you go to the local car salesman and come away with "mhhh, sounds a bit funny"? That is the feeling I have on this deal.

Firstly, it is well documented and not more than a fact that the Russian government has a very loose relationship with facts. Secondly, upthread someone mentioned "now the President does not need to involved". Right, alarm bells. We do have sanctions against Russia for very good reasons and NASA OIG will have a fun time with urgent double checking that all i's where dotted and all t's are crossed. Finally, giving NASA's history of working constructively with Roscosmos and astronauts flying on Soyuz, suddenly involving an unproven middleman when Commercial Crew is online sounds, questionable maybe, and as a tax payer I'd like OIG to double check that we are getting a good deal.

Is it not true that Boeing was the middleman on the direct purchase of the last Soyuz seat?
So it's not new for NASA to purchase a ride on Soyuz for one of their astronauts from a commercial enterprise.
It just a new entrant company.
And the money doesn't flow to Roscosmos this way.
(And the Russians wouldn't have to include "lifeboat" services for the seat being bartered, which is to their benefit, if it's of short duration with a direct handover.)

BTW transport AND "lifeboat" services came to ~$90M for the upcoming flight, not $55M like a tourist flight.
« Last Edit: 03/13/2021 10:25 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline yg1968

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #450 on: 03/16/2021 09:35 pm »
Hard to say but it's difficult to take Rogozin' words at face value, given the amount of spin in them:

Quote from: the article
Their "Trampoline", apparently, works so-so. Flights to the ISS are not stable, and therefore there was an urgent need to hedge and send [their guy] on our ship. " According to Rogozin, the American side will pay for this flight, and Roscosmos will direct the money to the development of the company.

You know the feeling when you go to the local car salesman and come away with "mhhh, sounds a bit funny"? That is the feeling I have on this deal.

Firstly, it is well documented and not more than a fact that the Russian government has a very loose relationship with facts. Secondly, upthread someone mentioned "now the President does not need to involved". Right, alarm bells. We do have sanctions against Russia for very good reasons and NASA OIG will have a fun time with urgent double checking that all i's where dotted and all t's are crossed. Finally, giving NASA's history of working constructively with Roscosmos and astronauts flying on Soyuz, suddenly involving an unproven middleman when Commercial Crew is online sounds, questionable maybe, and as a tax payer I'd like OIG to double check that we are getting a good deal.

You can take what NASA says at face value. NASA said that it did not pay any money for the Soyuz seat, it bartered the April Soyuz seat for a 2023 commercial crew seat. That 2023 seat will go to Axiom but what Axiom will do with it is less clear. It is also not clear if Axiom paid Roscosmos any money for the Soyuz seat. We only know for sure what NASA did.
« Last Edit: 03/16/2021 09:37 pm by yg1968 »

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #451 on: 04/01/2021 10:54 am »
Another benefit of fixed cost contract, very little additional cost to NASA due to covid: Pandemic to cost NASA up to $3 billion

Quote
Many other major projects and programs, though, saw far lower cost increases. The commercial crew program experienced $2.2 million in cost increases in 2020 and $2.3 million projected for future years. The 2020 increase came from the use of NASA aircraft for mission-essential travel during the pandemic and “socially distanced lodging” for astronauts and other personnel ahead of the Demo-2 and Crew-1 launches in May and November of 2020, respectively.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #452 on: 04/01/2021 03:13 pm »
Another benefit of fixed cost contract, very little additional cost to NASA due to covid: Pandemic to cost NASA up to $3 billion

Quote
Many other major projects and programs, though, saw far lower cost increases. The commercial crew program experienced $2.2 million in cost increases in 2020 and $2.3 million projected for future years. The 2020 increase came from the use of NASA aircraft for mission-essential travel during the pandemic and “socially distanced lodging” for astronauts and other personnel ahead of the Demo-2 and Crew-1 launches in May and November of 2020, respectively.
That whole analysis kind of smells. It gives tiny specific examples to come up with huge conclusions.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2021 03:13 pm by Nomadd »
Those who danced were thought to be quite insane by those who couldn't hear the music.

Offline su27k

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #453 on: 04/21/2021 02:26 am »
NASA chief: Russian cosmonauts unlikely fly on U.S. crew capsules until next year

Quote
Steve Jurczyk, NASA’s acting administrator, said Tuesday that the draft version of an “implementing agreement” between NASA and Roscosmos is still being reviewed by the U.S. State Department.

“We’re waiting for the final signatures from the State Department on the implementing agreement, and then we’ll provide that draft to Roscosmos and begin negotiations,” Jurczyk told Spaceflight Now in an interview.

He said he believes NASA is close to getting final State Department approval of the agreement’s text, but the clock has likely run out for getting the State Department signatures and finalizing the agreement with the Russian government in time to assign a Russian cosmonaut to a SpaceX crew mission later this year.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #454 on: 04/21/2021 01:15 pm »
https://twitter.com/spcplcyonline/status/1384856516990312450

Quote
Jurczyk: plan is to alternate Crew Dragon and Starliner missions but may revisit that with delay in Starliner. Haven't had discussions w/the companies yet for forward work.

Edit to add:

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1384862577507897350

Quote
I asked acting NASA administrator Steve Jurczyk about the forward plans for Starliner and Crew Dragon flights, now that SpaceX Crew-3 could launch before Starliner CFT:
« Last Edit: 04/21/2021 01:35 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline abaddon

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #455 on: 04/23/2021 06:47 pm »
Lots of interesting stuff here, but this jumped out particularly to me: https://spacenews.com/spacex-launches-nasa-crew-2-mission/

Quote
Leading up to the launch, NASA officials said that, after a decade of development, the commercial crew program — or, at least, SpaceX’s vehicle in that program — had clearly moved into operations. “It’s very, very exciting to be in this operational cadence,” said Kathy Lueders, NASA associate administrator for human exploration and operations, during an April 15 press conference after the flight readiness review for the Crew-2 mission, which also reviewed plans to return Crew-1 to Earth.

Kimbrough, the commander of Crew-2, said this mission was the first to follow the streamlined training flow that future missions will use. “We’re the first ones to have gone through what we hope to be the templated flows for future crews,” he said at an April 17 press conference.

That revised training program, he said, combines training on the Crew Dragon spacecraft with that for the ISS. “It’s a little less than a year of training, where the crews in front of us had several years of training. Instead of being more developmental, it’s more operational now.”
« Last Edit: 04/23/2021 06:48 pm by abaddon »

Offline baldusi

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #456 on: 04/25/2021 11:20 pm »
NASA chief: Russian cosmonauts unlikely fly on U.S. crew capsules until next year

Quote
Steve Jurczyk, NASA’s acting administrator, said Tuesday that the draft version of an “implementing agreement” between NASA and Roscosmos is still being reviewed by the U.S. State Department.

“We’re waiting for the final signatures from the State Department on the implementing agreement, and then we’ll provide that draft to Roscosmos and begin negotiations,” Jurczyk told Spaceflight Now in an interview.

He said he believes NASA is close to getting final State Department approval of the agreement’s text, but the clock has likely run out for getting the State Department signatures and finalizing the agreement with the Russian government in time to assign a Russian cosmonaut to a SpaceX crew mission later this year.

An interesting issue that might arise is that if Russians don't want to travel on a capsule with less than 3 operational missions, it might restrict them to Dragons for a couple of years. But NASA might want to backload Starliner flights to cover their share of the load. Which would further conflict with Russians flying on American capsules.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #457 on: 05/03/2021 07:30 am »
Tidbit from Steve Stich in stark contrast to Space X's success.  The CST Boeing re-flight of OFT-2 won't fly till Aug/Sep...

Indeed, could the contrast be any more stark? What's going on here?
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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #458 on: 05/03/2021 11:22 am »
Already brought up in multiple areas, no availability to launch in May due to military launch on 41, and visiting vehicle and other scheduling issues on ISS. First slot available is in Aug./ Sept. timeframe.

Online ulm_atms

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Re: Commercial Crew - Discussion Thread 3
« Reply #459 on: 08/11/2021 10:29 pm »
From the CST-100 thread

SPX-23 is now on the range schedule for 28 Aug.

Because the of the OFT-2 mission profile at the ISS. OFT-2 would have to launch on or before 15 Aug or <4 days from now. Basically not gonna happen!!!!

Which because SPX-23 is at the ISS until 30 Sep. And the rest of the ISS VV schedule for Oct is chock full of VV activities from the Russian side with Crew 3 capping the ending of the month off. October is out as well. So OFT-2 looks to be now a slip of at least 3 months to November.

If OFT-2 launches in Nov and everything works correctly. The best for CFT would be at least 3 months later (time it takes for all the extensive data reviews to certify ready for crew). That is February 2022 which at this point the VV schedules that far out are fairly fluid.

Meaning Starliner will not likely be doing Crew 4 but Crew 5 in the Fall. Crew 4 would be by Dragon.
I have a question that this comment made me think of.

What happens contract wise if SpaceX uses all of it's crew flights up before Starliner is ready for crew?  I know they would keep using Dragon until then...but that is got to have some weird issues with the contracts I would think.

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