Author Topic: Collision Avoidance: Coordination, Precedence, Dispute Resolution  (Read 11033 times)

Offline Tywin

I open this thread, to talk about the future rights and obligations of the future mega constellations of satellites in LEO...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanocallaghan/2019/09/02/spacex-refused-to-move-a-starlink-satellite-at-risk-of-collision-with-a-european-satellite/#306c6bc31f62

With the recent incident between the small satellite of Starlink (spacex) and the meteorological Aeolus satellite from ESA...

Start a new era of debate, about who have the control and the right in the orbits in LEO...?

This questions will be even more relevant, when the new mega constellations start to have thousand of satellites in LEO...

Who have to move in case of collision? the smaller satellite, the older in space?

In case of failure in the propulsion of this satellites, they should inform to others constellation of this problems?

Who will have the right for order to move (obligate if is necessary) this satellites to this constellations?

This a thread for debate this future problem and about all the new constellations will be deploy in low orbit...

« Last Edit: 09/02/2019 11:41 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline QuantumG

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9266
  • Australia
  • Liked: 4489
  • Likes Given: 1126
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
This is an interesting topic and one that isn't confined to just LEO. GEO is another busy area that has this issue...  there seems to be something already in place because there is talk of who has what "slot".

Ideally this will be worked out by the first few parties setting up a coordination board or something similar.  I can think of a number of schemes to decide "who should move"... it may be that unique science satellites get precedence. It may be that the satellite with less fuel remaining gets precedence... who knows.

(Could the Space Data Association evolve into such a coordination facility? http://www.space-data.org/sda/  Will it fall to CSpOC to do this?

Note: the "executive members" are some old line satellite companies, and SpaceX doesn't seem to be listed as a member at all...

http://www.space-data.org/sda/participants/

If that's not just an omission it's quite surprising)
« Last Edit: 09/02/2019 11:48 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Tywin

This is an interesting topic and one that isn't confined to just LEO. GEO is another busy area that has this issue...  there seems to be something already in place because there is talk of who has what "slot".

Ideally this will be worked out by the first few parties setting up a coordination board or something similar.  I can think of a number of schemes to decide "who should move"... it may be that unique science satellites get precedence. It may be that the satellite with less fuel remaining gets precedence... who knows.

(Could the Space Data Association evolve into such a coordination facility? http://www.space-data.org/sda/  Will it fall to CSpOC to do this?

Note: the "executive members" are some old line satellite companies, and SpaceX doesn't seem to be listed as a member at all...

http://www.space-data.org/sda/participants/

If that's not just an omission it's quite surprising)

Well I see the bigger communications satellites operators right there...but companies, like Oneweb, Starlink, Leosat, etc I don't see...maybe the new companies that are entrance to this market want change the rules...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
« Last Edit: 09/03/2019 06:41 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online dglow

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2177
  • Liked: 2428
  • Likes Given: 4644
Wyler's just jealous that ESA didn't dodge one of his birds first.

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14667
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14670
  • Likes Given: 1420
Fwiw the situation is symmetrical.  Don't demand that the other guy move - move your own damn bird.

If you can't (say low on fuel) ask nicely and hope.

Also, an oz of early maneuver is worth a pound of late maneuver.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Tywin

Fwiw the situation is symmetrical.  Don't demand that the other guy move - move your own damn bird.

If you can't (say low on fuel) ask nicely and hope.

Also, an oz of early maneuver is worth a pound of late maneuver.

That represent a big problem too...is you bird cost 1000 millions $, and the cost of move in propellant is a lot more expensive that a simple small sat, you expect that the cheaper and smaller bird, move first...

The real questions, is all this will need regulations, and somebody for do this job internationally...

If tomorrow, X company, or a country not very friendly... put a femto satellite, in the orbit of one of the starlink satellite, and refuse to move,  they don't will be happy either...
« Last Edit: 09/03/2019 02:57 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

Other question that bring su27k and is very interesting...is how precisely we know the orbit of every birds in LEO-GEO?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48297.msg1988257#msg1988257

They should be share in real time always where are each of his birds?
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14667
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14670
  • Likes Given: 1420
Fwiw the situation is symmetrical.  Don't demand that the other guy move - move your own damn bird.

If you can't (say low on fuel) ask nicely and hope.

Also, an oz of early maneuver is worth a pound of late maneuver.

That represent a big problem too...is you bird cost 1000 millions $, and the cost of move in propellant is a lot more expensive that a simple small sat, you expect that the cheaper and smaller bird, move first...

The real questions, is all this will need regulations, and somebody for do this job internationally...

If tomorrow, X company, or a country not very friendly... put a femto satellite, in the orbit of one of the starlink satellite, and refuse to move,  they don't will be happy either...
For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric.

Also, by sheer necessity, expensive birds yield since that's what's going to happen anyway since the cheap bird is willing to take more risk, that's just a fact even if it's unfair.

Also, when I learned to drive I was told that "right of way" is something you give, not demand or take..
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8166
  • Liked: 6836
  • Likes Given: 2972
If tomorrow, X company, or a country not very friendly... put a femto satellite, in the orbit of one of the starlink satellite, and refuse to move,  they don't will be happy either...

Intentionally causing a conjunction is prohibited under the OST since it constitutes interference with another country's space activities.

In the case of an accidental conjunction then neither party is interfering with the other... they simply happen to be headed to the same point without being able to know it ahead of time (at least not further ahead than COLAs are calculated and valid).

Offline Tywin

As we talk about outer space...we need an international organism for control this...


What about Unoosa for this job?

http://www.unoosa.org/
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Online gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10435
  • US
  • Liked: 14349
  • Likes Given: 6143
For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric

Electric propulsion should be fine for avoiding these situations.  I think having deorbiting sats that are still under control steer around active and stable operational sats would be more fair.

Offline Tywin

For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric.

Also, by sheer necessity, expensive birds yield since that's what's going to happen anyway since the cheap bird is willing to take more risk, that's just a fact even if it's unfair.

Well at least in the sea I think so is the contrary...if you are in the ocean with you yatch and you are in a collision course with a Oil tanker ship...you are the ship that have to move...becuase the bigger ship have priority...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
As we talk about outer space...we need an international organism for control this...


What about Unoosa for this job?

http://www.unoosa.org/

It is not at all clear that a regulatory body is needed, or feasible... What is needed is a coordination body. The SDA might be ideal for that.

(regulation is not the only way to solve disputes, voluntary cooperation is often more efficient, and for regulation to work at all, the regulatory authority needs to have enforcement authority. What enforcement authority would any UN body have?)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13469
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 11869
  • Likes Given: 11115
For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric

Electric propulsion should be fine for avoiding these situations.  I think having deorbiting sats that are still under control steer around active and stable operational sats would be more fair.
I agree. I think you could build up a whole set of precedence rules and weights

- who can do it more easily should do it
- who is closer to end of life should do it
- who has better margins remaining should do it
- science trumps commercial
- first in orbit has right of way
- When moving, ascending node moves out, descending node moves in

along with some rules about which rules take precedence over which other ones

(those are just ideas for possible rules, not my actual feelings)
« Last Edit: 09/03/2019 04:30 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14667
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14670
  • Likes Given: 1420
For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric

Electric propulsion should be fine for avoiding these situations.  I think having deorbiting sats that are still under control steer around active and stable operational sats would be more fair.
That right there is the one no-brainer rule.  If you're at end-of-life, might as well off yourself.

As for electric propulsion in general, not sure what the thrust is.  If they want to scootch a few km over a period of hours, that's not trivial. Over days, probably more feasible.

Not sure if it was even an option here, but the most important thing is - there is no agreed upon obligation, and ESA can't (or rather shouldn't) run around insinuating SpaceX broke some rule or understanding.
« Last Edit: 09/03/2019 06:26 pm by gongora »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Tywin

For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric

Electric propulsion should be fine for avoiding these situations.  I think having deorbiting sats that are still under control steer around active and stable operational sats would be more fair.
That right there is the one no-brainer rule.  If you're at end-of-life, might as well off yourself.  Works for ppl too :)

As for electric propulsion in general, not sure what the thrust is.  If they want to scootch a few km over a period of hours, that's not trivial. Over days, probably more feasible.

Not sure if it was even an option here, but the most important thing is - there is no agreed upon obligation, and ESA can't (or rather shouldn't) run around insinuating SpaceX broke some rule or understanding.

The problem was a miscommunication problem...and the failure was by part of the email of SpaceX...

https://twitter.com/lorengrush/status/1168917747109191681

ESA only want start a debate for prevent future problem that can start the Kessler syndrome...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
« Last Edit: 09/03/2019 04:42 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

For sure, just like in the water - motor yields to sail, right?   So chem prop yields to electric

Electric propulsion should be fine for avoiding these situations.  I think having deorbiting sats that are still under control steer around active and stable operational sats would be more fair.
I agree. I think you could build up a whole set of precedence rules and weights

- who can do it more easily should do it
- who is closer to end of life should do it
- who has better margins remaining should do it
- science trumps commercial
- first in orbit has right of way
- When moving, ascending node moves out, descending node moves in

along with some rules about which rules take precedence over which other ones

(those are just ideas for possible rules, not my actual feelings)

I liked your rules Lar...

I add:

- Bigger bird have priority of way vs lighter birds...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline Tywin

As we talk about outer space...we need an international organism for control this...


What about Unoosa for this job?

http://www.unoosa.org/

It is not at all clear that a regulatory body is needed, or feasible... What is needed is a coordination body. The SDA might be ideal for that.

(regulation is not the only way to solve disputes, voluntary cooperation is often more efficient, and for regulation to work at all, the regulatory authority needs to have enforcement authority. What enforcement authority would any UN body have?)

The problem I see with the SDA is a organization "only" for commercial companies...and with the use of the
cheaper launchers, and the increasing demanding in cubesats, a lot of universities, countries, organizations, even
amateurs people,  will have thousands of satellites in the soon future in LEO...I don't think so the SDA will be enough...
« Last Edit: 09/03/2019 05:01 pm by Tywin »
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0