In terms of getting a Starship to orbit, the schedule has probably sped up as a result of the incident on the 20th.
Quote from: 50_Caliber on 12/02/2019 11:10 amIn terms of getting a Starship to orbit, the schedule has probably sped up as a result of the incident on the 20th.That's a pretty bold statement. I'd say they lost an invaluable opportunity to gather flight data on an entirely new EDL technique. Additionally, the needed infrastructure to manufacture MK3 could have easily been built in tandem while MK1 continued its production / testing. Not to mention that higher fidelity manufacturing systems, such as an automated horizontal welding system, take time to order to spec, manufacture, install, and calibrate. Plus long term infrastructure required to house such equipment and processes could also have happened in tandem with MK1 - it's not like those projects share the same resources.So I don't see how this will get them to orbit faster. I have a feeling the Coco site shutdown was already planned, so that wasn't affected by the incident. I say this because to all intents and purposes Coco manufacture has stopped long before the incident, and the Roberts Road site was already in the works. However, with that said I eagerly look forward to seeing what changes will be implemented. I'm curious as to how the steel stands that are being transferred from Coco will be utilized, and am very interested in the new nosecone (or what appears to be a nosecone - it could also be a fabrication jig) ,as I have been closely watching for those interesting steep plates with the rounded tabs on the end to show up after arriving on a flatbed and now they apparently have shown up in the shape of a nosecone. I am also interested in seeing what the stainless U channel will be used for that arrived on the same shipment.John
Quote from: Johnnyhinbos on 12/02/2019 12:19 pmQuote from: 50_Caliber on 12/02/2019 11:10 amIn terms of getting a Starship to orbit, the schedule has probably sped up as a result of the incident on the 20th.That's a pretty bold statement. I'd say they lost an invaluable opportunity to gather flight data on an entirely new EDL technique. Additionally, the needed infrastructure to manufacture MK3 could have easily been built in tandem while MK1 continued its production / testing. Not to mention that higher fidelity manufacturing systems, such as an automated horizontal welding system, take time to order to spec, manufacture, install, and calibrate. Plus long term infrastructure required to house such equipment and processes could also have happened in tandem with MK1 - it's not like those projects share the same resources.So I don't see how this will get them to orbit faster. I have a feeling the Coco site shutdown was already planned, so that wasn't affected by the incident. I say this because to all intents and purposes Coco manufacture has stopped long before the incident, and the Roberts Road site was already in the works. However, with that said I eagerly look forward to seeing what changes will be implemented. I'm curious as to how the steel stands that are being transferred from Coco will be utilized, and am very interested in the new nosecone (or what appears to be a nosecone - it could also be a fabrication jig) ,as I have been closely watching for those interesting steep plates with the rounded tabs on the end to show up after arriving on a flatbed and now they apparently have shown up in the shape of a nosecone. I am also interested in seeing what the stainless U channel will be used for that arrived on the same shipment.JohnI think reduce the time to an exoatmospheric (but not orbital) flight attempt, while increasing the chance of that attempt failing to stick the landing.An orbital attempt will require SuperHeavy, which might be dependent on the exoatmospheric flight. So that might move up, but probably not.
We must ask the question, what will happen to Mk. 2? Equipment and components have already begun being shipped to Boca, with the exception of rings that were said to be the incorrect size, is it possible we see Mk. 2 still make it to KSC or even possibly Boca Chica? Or will we just see the remianing workforce slowly tear everything apart for scrapping? Time will tell of course but it will be quite sad if they take a partially assembled Starship, one that seems to have complete tanks, and just throw it away. It would be nice if it atleast became one of the first edditions to their new rocket garden at KSC they're building now...
I am also interested in seeing what the stainless U channel will be used for that arrived on the same shipment.John
They continue to take parts out of the MK2 nosecone as of Monday 2 Dec 2019. They seem to be removing more than would be necessary to transport the nosecone. One header tank was removed last week, and it looks like the second header tank might be getting removed soon.My guess is that the next generation will have a much lower center of gravity with the header tanks much further down in the rocket. Larger canards on the nosecone could compensate.
Quote from: Johnnyhinbos on 12/02/2019 12:19 pmQuote from: 50_Caliber on 12/02/2019 11:10 amIn terms of getting a Starship to orbit, the schedule has probably sped up as a result of the incident on the 20th.That's a pretty bold statement. I'd say they lost an invaluable opportunity to gather flight data on an entirely new EDL technique. Additionally, the needed infrastructure to manufacture MK3 could have easily been built in tandem while MK1 continued its production / testing. Not to mention that higher fidelity manufacturing systems, such as an automated horizontal welding system, take time to order to spec, manufacture, install, and calibrate. Plus long term infrastructure required to house such equipment and processes could also have happened in tandem with MK1 - it's not like those projects share the same resources.So I don't see how this will get them to orbit faster. I have a feeling the Coco site shutdown was already planned, so that wasn't affected by the incident. I say this because to all intents and purposes Coco manufacture has stopped long before the incident, and the Roberts Road site was already in the works. However, with that said I eagerly look forward to seeing what changes will be implemented. I'm curious as to how the steel stands that are being transferred from Coco will be utilized, and am very interested in the new nosecone (or what appears to be a nosecone - it could also be a fabrication jig) ,as I have been closely watching for those interesting steep plates with the rounded tabs on the end to show up after arriving on a flatbed and now they apparently have shown up in the shape of a nosecone. I am also interested in seeing what the stainless U channel will be used for that arrived on the same shipment.JohnI do wonder if some in SpaceX were not falling into a version of the much referenced sunk cost fallacy. We've got this thing, we gotta do something with it, when maybe they shouldn't have even reassembled it after the big show (assuming they have pivoted to a new design then). In that case blowing it up gets them moving forward quicker.Even though they would have still been able to get some useful tests results out of it if it had not popped its top, I do not think that losing a prototype this early in the process does much to slow the real timetable (not Musk's notoriously asperational one) much at all.I expect them to lose some more, frankly, while still successfully flying routinely in five years (four now).
https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1201350135768330240