SpaceX F9: Space Norway ASBM : VSFB SLC-4E : NET August 2024

[Ken the Bin]

NGA Rocket Launching notice.

120430Z JUL 24
NAVAREA XII 507/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS:
   A. 160340Z TO 160430Z, 170336Z TO 170426Z,
      180332Z TO 180422Z, 190328Z TO 190418Z,
      200324Z TO 200414Z, 210325Z TO 210406Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220402Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-20.00N 116-27.00W, 28-48.00N 115-45.00W,
      28-12.00N 116-17.00W, 28-45.00N 116-58.00W.
   B. 160340Z TO 160425Z, 170336Z TO 170421Z,
      180332Z TO 180417Z, 190328Z TO 190413Z,
      200324Z TO 200409Z, 210325Z TO 210400Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220356Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-03.00N 117-14.00W, 30-02.00N 117-11.00W,
      29-57.00N 117-05.00W, 29-48.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-30.00N 116-48.00W, 29-28.00N 116-48.00W,
      29-28.00N 116-50.00W, 29-36.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-48.00N 117-08.00W, 29-58.00N 117-13.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 220502Z JUL 24.//

[PM3]

NET Mid-July => NET July

https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

[Ken the Bin]

Okay, here's a weird one.

I've been expecting a postponement or cancellation of this notice:

NGA Rocket Launching notice.

120430Z JUL 24
NAVAREA XII 507/24(21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
MEXICO.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS:
   A. 160340Z TO 160430Z, 170336Z TO 170426Z,
      180332Z TO 180422Z, 190328Z TO 190418Z,
      200324Z TO 200414Z, 210325Z TO 210406Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220402Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-20.00N 116-27.00W, 28-48.00N 115-45.00W,
      28-12.00N 116-17.00W, 28-45.00N 116-58.00W.
   B. 160340Z TO 160425Z, 170336Z TO 170421Z,
      180332Z TO 180417Z, 190328Z TO 190413Z,
      200324Z TO 200409Z, 210325Z TO 210400Z
      AND 220321Z TO 220356Z JUL
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-03.00N 117-14.00W, 30-02.00N 117-11.00W,
      29-57.00N 117-05.00W, 29-48.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-30.00N 116-48.00W, 29-28.00N 116-48.00W,
      29-28.00N 116-50.00W, 29-36.00N 116-58.00W,
      29-48.00N 117-08.00W, 29-58.00N 117-13.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 220502Z JUL 24.//

... but instead this morning I received this generic NGA Hazardous Operations notice:

150939Z JUL 24
NAVAREA XII 516/24(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 
   160340Z TO 160423Z JUL, ALTERNATE 
   170336Z TO 170419Z, 180332Z TO 180415Z, 
   190328Z TO 190411Z, 200324Z TO 200407Z 
   AND 210325Z TO 210358Z JUL
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   34-39.00N 120-39.00W, 34-40.00N 120-36.00W,
   34-28.00N 120-20.00W, 32-16.00N 118-44.00W,
   32-16.00N 118-51.00W, 34-33.00N 120-38.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 210458Z JUL 24.//

Note that the dates and start times match the original Space Debris notice except that it doesn't include July 22. The end times are all two minutes earlier than the end times for location B.

[zubenelgenubi]

Okay, here's a weird one.

<snip>

Note that the dates and start times match the original Space Debris notice except that it doesn't include July 22. The end times are all two minutes earlier than the end times for location B.

I sincerely doubt this launch goes tomorrow, July 16.

However, I suggest that we (spaceflight enthusiasts) watch for SpaceX activity at all three Falcon 9 launch complexes.

I know that SLC-4E is not line-of-sight from publicly accessible land, so that would mean sea, air, or space reconnaissance.

Within the law, of course.

The mishap must be investigated, but I suspect that a launch will proceed as soon as possible after return to flight authorization.

Edit July 16: Starlink 9-4 is now the next scheduled Vandenberg Falcon 9 launch, NET July 22 UTC.

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 9-4:

NextSpaceflight; updated July 25:
Launch 28 July 07:24 UTC

So, it's not a surprise:

NextSpaceflight; updated July 26:

Arctic Satellite Broadband Mission (ASBM)
Launch Time
NET August 2024

But, launch could be in earliest August, because OCISLY turnaround may not be needed.

Re-post; expendable first stage?

<snip>
I'd expect this to delay at least a day or two, this would be a pad turnaround record for SLC-4E with Starlink Group 9-3 scheduled at a similar time on the 11th. Current SLC-4E turnaround record is 4.5 days.

Does this give any hint to if its expendable?

Perhaps.  Assuming that the schedule is indeed as listed above, SpaceX means to launch ~3 days after the previous launch.

The payload mass is too heavy for a first stage landing at LZ-1.

This is apparently too short a time for OCISLY to turnaround via the Port of Long Beach, implying an expended launch.  B1061.22?

Looking further ahead, if this launch goes ASAP, SpaceX may launch another Starlink Group 9 before Transporter-11.  Or, it could launch the third Starshield cluster for the NRO.

Transporter-11:

Celestis now states launch is TBD.
https://www.celestis.com/launch-schedule/harmony-flight/

Now "No earlier than August 15".