Quote from: jg on 08/19/2020 07:21 pmYou also missed Tony's statement that the signal from the satellites is present in the data to a hundred to one signal to noise ratio. That's a huge problem wherever the light from the satellites are present. Say you can make things 10 times center which is great You're still going to have one hell of a single noise ratio contribution from the satellite.It doesn't mean anything like what you just said. The only thing a Starlink having a significant SNR guarantees is that the satellite can be detected.It says nothing directly about how much other signals could be detected. It has no effect on anything that is not the relatively small fraction of pixels directly affected. ChrisWilson68 actually left out part of the potential application of predicting the satellite trails. You don't have to just ignore the trails, you can subtract off the trails to the limits of your ability to predict the trail. We don't know what that would be yet, but the best case is to remove it down to the noise level, so there is no net effect on the science data.
You also missed Tony's statement that the signal from the satellites is present in the data to a hundred to one signal to noise ratio. That's a huge problem wherever the light from the satellites are present. Say you can make things 10 times center which is great You're still going to have one hell of a single noise ratio contribution from the satellite.
It does make a difference. If you add N electrons to a pixel you are adding square root of N noise to that pixel. So if your signal is 100 times higher than the noise it is also adding a large amount of noise to the pixel. This is simple photon statistics.
Often signal of object might be even a fraction of a photon per pixel. Often you integrate for a very long time just to get the sky background level high enough that it's root and statistics allow you to detect the object.
There are a number of integration techniques. If you integrate across multiple frames, the satellite would only be present in one of them, making the satellite even less relevant. In these cases this is where noise gets reduced by a factor of sqrt(n) where n is the number of frames. Even if it was just eliminating certain pixels from one frame entirely, sqrt(n-1) reduction in noise instead is not that much worse. (Whether including pixels corrected for satellite removal help or hurts depends on the residual error and the total number of frames.)
Rubin observatory (LSST) impact:
We report studies on mitigation of optical effects of bright Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellites on Vera C. Rubin Observatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). These include options for pointing the telescope to avoid satellites, laboratory investigations of bright trails on the Rubin Observatory LSST Camera sensors, algorithms for correcting image artifacts caused by bright trails, experiments on darkening SpaceX Starlink satellites, and ground-based follow-up observations. Starlink satellites with no brightness mitigation are presently g ~ 5.1 mag, and an initial experiment "DarkSat" is g ~ 6.1 mag. Future Starlink darkening plans may reach g ~ 7 mag, a brightness level that enables non-linear image artifact correction to the same level as background noise. However, the satellite trails will still exist at S/N ~ 100, generating systematics that may impact data analysis and limiting some science. LEO satellite trails are wider than a point-spread function because satellites are slightly out of focus due to their finite distance; for Rubin Observatory's 8.4-m mirror and a satellite at 550 km, this widening effect is about 3 arcsec, which helps avoid saturation by decreasing the trail's peak surface brightness.
Quote from: jg on 08/19/2020 07:40 pmIt does make a difference. If you add N electrons to a pixel you are adding square root of N noise to that pixel. So if your signal is 100 times higher than the noise it is also adding a large amount of noise to the pixel. This is simple photon statistics.That is not even close to what SNR means. Adding more signal does not automatically increase the background noise. In the case I mentioned where the signal is treated as a known and removed the remaining noise is dependent on how well the signal is known, which is not directly related to the signal itself in any way that you can make broad statements about. It might be a fixed knowledge value, it in some cases could be proportional to some extent, but the current information tells us nothing about what that proportionality factor would be.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/19/2020 08:10 pmQuote from: jg on 08/19/2020 07:40 pmIt does make a difference. If you add N electrons to a pixel you are adding square root of N noise to that pixel. So if your signal is 100 times higher than the noise it is also adding a large amount of noise to the pixel. This is simple photon statistics.That is not even close to what SNR means. Adding more signal does not automatically increase the background noise. In the case I mentioned where the signal is treated as a known and removed the remaining noise is dependent on how well the signal is known, which is not directly related to the signal itself in any way that you can make broad statements about. It might be a fixed knowledge value, it in some cases could be proportional to some extent, but the current information tells us nothing about what that proportionality factor would be.That is how SNR works. See eq 2.1 from the ESO exposure time calculator formula book. On the bottom you have the noise terms, where you see the first term is sqrt(signal), which is summed in quadrature with the other contributions.
Adding signal always increases the noise, even if it is marginal because other noise sources dominate (not the case here)."Background noise" is only one type of noise in an image, the total noise is whats important. A big bright satellite trail will certainly increase the noise dramatically.
When you talk about removing the signal you there is a limiting case. You can never remove a signal to better precision than the Poissonian noise. That is just physical fact. What jg says is true. This is the best case scenario. If you don't know the signal that well then what you end up with is residuals plus noise, that will be worse than the limiting case.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/21/2020 11:46 pmThat is how SNR works. See eq 2.1 from the ESO exposure time calculator formula book. On the bottom you have the noise terms, where you see the first term is sqrt(signal), which is summed in quadrature with the other contributions.Please look at the post I was responding to. It incorrectly claims that the noise is simply sqrt(signal) Those other contributions simply make the result invalid. (And we have no idea based on what was presented what is dominating, because the video does not specify what any of those contributions are, it uses an adjusted scale with background signals subtracted off.)
That is how SNR works. See eq 2.1 from the ESO exposure time calculator formula book. On the bottom you have the noise terms, where you see the first term is sqrt(signal), which is summed in quadrature with the other contributions.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/21/2020 11:46 pmAdding signal always increases the noise, even if it is marginal because other noise sources dominate (not the case here)."Background noise" is only one type of noise in an image, the total noise is whats important. A big bright satellite trail will certainly increase the noise dramatically.You are making assertions without the full set of information required to back them up. If one term is negligible, than it in effect does not increase the noise, and certainly not at a fixed rate.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/21/2020 11:46 pmWhen you talk about removing the signal you there is a limiting case. You can never remove a signal to better precision than the Poissonian noise. That is just physical fact. What jg says is true. This is the best case scenario. If you don't know the signal that well then what you end up with is residuals plus noise, that will be worse than the limiting case.Except it is not limiting, you are making assumptions that are invalid. Please read the rest of my post where I address the integration part and how mentioning integration further weakens the argument. The link you provided nicely shows the sqrt(n) I talked about in eqn 2.2. For some reason it only applies it to infrared bands for whatever special case it is discussing.
No it does not. jg said "If you add N electrons to a pixel you are adding square root of N noise to that pixel.". Which is exactly correct. I don't see any claim that this is the only source of noise.
And we do know what is dominating, because there are lots of other instruments already in existence with similar parameters. Subtracting the background does not change the noise.
The ESO reference backs that up. You can see from the noise part of the equation that increasing the signal increases the noise. Trying to insert "in effect" is totally vague and moving the goalposts. The contribution to the noise from the signal is always the same (as jg claimed), the total noise depends on the other terms.
It is limiting. If you're talking about subtracting the trail then you will only ever do that on the single exposure. You correctly stated the "best case is to remove it down to the noise level", but because the trail is there the noise will be higher.
What you described in your other comment is about rejecting the data by masking it in the stack, at that point you're not beating the limiting case you've just thrown away the data. Masking is what LSST will use in their stacks, but they're not only interested in stacks. For the transients and asteroids for example they will be using individual exposures.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 11:16 amNo it does not. jg said "If you add N electrons to a pixel you are adding square root of N noise to that pixel.". Which is exactly correct. I don't see any claim that this is the only source of noise.If it is not the only source of noise, the statement is plainly mathematically wrong. given X already exists, you getsqrt(N + x) - sqrt(xmore noise. That is only equal to sqrt(N) if x is 0.
What parameter on what instruments? You are making assertions without providing evidence, there has been entirely too much nonsense thrown out there on this topic for me to trust assertions without scientific evidence. I didn't say that subtracting the background eliminates the fact that there is noise, I was pointing out that it eliminates information about the actual absolute value of noise present.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 11:16 amThe ESO reference backs that up. You can see from the noise part of the equation that increasing the signal increases the noise. Trying to insert "in effect" is totally vague and moving the goalposts. The contribution to the noise from the signal is always the same (as jg claimed), the total noise depends on the other terms.The concept of something being a negligible contribution factor is not all that vague. And again please look at the simplified equations I wrote above. Things are neither linear nor constant. The effect of adding more noise of any type has an effect that depends on how much noise was already there.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 11:16 amIt is limiting. If you're talking about subtracting the trail then you will only ever do that on the single exposure. You correctly stated the "best case is to remove it down to the noise level", but because the trail is there the noise will be higher.It depends on the details, but it possibly helps if integrating a small number of frames (and some other variables). The more frames you have the less effect removing 1 frame has on the noise reduction.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/22/2020 04:27 pmQuote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 11:16 amNo it does not. jg said "If you add N electrons to a pixel you are adding square root of N noise to that pixel.". Which is exactly correct. I don't see any claim that this is the only source of noise.If it is not the only source of noise, the statement is plainly mathematically wrong. given X already exists, you getsqrt(N + x) - sqrt(xmore noise. That is only equal to sqrt(N) if x is 0. Did jg say that the total noise would be sqrt(N) higher? No. I understand that noise terms sum in quadrature, so I do not have a problem with that statement. I think we agree on the outcome so I don't see any point in getting bogged down arguing semantics.
The comparison I looked at was VLT/FORS2. It has a similar pixel scale, site quality and filter set, but lower read noise (which I accounted for). I don't know why this is interesting.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/22/2020 04:27 pmQuote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 11:16 amThe ESO reference backs that up. You can see from the noise part of the equation that increasing the signal increases the noise. Trying to insert "in effect" is totally vague and moving the goalposts. The contribution to the noise from the signal is always the same (as jg claimed), the total noise depends on the other terms.The concept of something being a negligible contribution factor is not all that vague. And again please look at the simplified equations I wrote above. Things are neither linear nor constant. The effect of adding more noise of any type has an effect that depends on how much noise was already there.Did I say it was linear? No, in fact I made it quite clear that it wasn't. My statement was "Adding signal always increases the noise, even if it is marginal because other noise sources dominate (not the case here)." Which is true by the equation you have written, but for some reason you objected to the first part.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/22/2020 04:27 pmQuote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 11:16 amIt is limiting. If you're talking about subtracting the trail then you will only ever do that on the single exposure. You correctly stated the "best case is to remove it down to the noise level", but because the trail is there the noise will be higher.It depends on the details, but it possibly helps if integrating a small number of frames (and some other variables). The more frames you have the less effect removing 1 frame has on the noise reduction.I'm not talking about removing frames, I specifically said subtracting the trail (and so did you in the post I quoted). The trail will only be in one image. If you stack other images of the same field you will decrease the SNR of the trail, because it's not in any of the other images.
You want to subtract a trail in the image where it has the highest SNR, which is a single exposure.
You made baseless assertions about what is dominating that are now only slightly less baseless. Science is based on evidence, and this forum should be better than the spreading of baseless FUD which has happened way to often on this issue. Your response here doesn't really give me confidence that you actually have a good idea of LSST's relevant parameters, to make solid claims about the threshold for what is dominating.
Quote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 06:15 pmThe contribution to the noise from the signal is always the same (as jg claimed)You directly said that the increase was constant
The contribution to the noise from the signal is always the same (as jg claimed)
So you agree that one way or another the satellite trails do not have any significant effect on images of very dim objects, a case that jg is the one who brought up in an attempt to claim that satellite trails cause significant unavoidable problems?
Yes, that is the case where subtracting the satellite trail has the most direct effects, since the stacking usually dominates anyway for the case of dimmest objects. However, don't claim that it is what I want to do, it is something that was stated in the video as a potential future path. Currently no one has the information required to know exactly how effective it will be, but it at least leaves open the possibility of making the impact on the final science data negligible, even if the satellites are still visible in the frame (which they would be in any realistic scenario.) You have presented no argument against this point, instead defending incorrect points jg made, even though you seem to be acknowledging the math that says something distinctly different than the original claims.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/23/2020 04:56 pmYou made baseless assertions about what is dominating that are now only slightly less baseless. Science is based on evidence, and this forum should be better than the spreading of baseless FUD which has happened way to often on this issue. Your response here doesn't really give me confidence that you actually have a good idea of LSST's relevant parameters, to make solid claims about the threshold for what is dominating.It wasn't a baseless assertion, I did check. You asked questions about how I established that and I answered. You asked "What parameter on what instruments?", which I gave you. It's quite something to stress the need for "evidence" and then dismiss a claim based on your feelings about my answer.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/23/2020 04:56 pmQuote from: Dizzy_RHESSI on 08/22/2020 06:15 pmThe contribution to the noise from the signal is always the same (as jg claimed)You directly said that the increase was constantNo I didn't. Read what is says carefully. I said the contribution was always the same,
which is true, the term going into the equation is always sqrt(N_obj). My statement says nothing about how that combines with the other noise terms or how the total noise changes.
Also note that I had already said in the post before that one that the increase was not linear, it was perfectly clear.
It's completely disingenuous to take things out of the context of the thread like this, just so you have something to complain about.
Quote from: meberbs on 08/23/2020 04:56 pmSo you agree that one way or another the satellite trails do not have any significant effect on images of very dim objects, a case that jg is the one who brought up in an attempt to claim that satellite trails cause significant unavoidable problems?No I don't agree with that as a general statement, and you haven't even bothered to explain in what context.
It was a generic "you". And you're moving the goalposts again.
The point I contested was your claim that it could have "no net effect on the science data", which is impossible.
I have described why, because adding signal always increases the noise. You eventually seemed to agreed with this point (" Things are neither linear nor constant. ") and hence, the noise has to increase with the presence of a trail. But instead of staying on point you've diverted the discussion onto semantics.
The SATCON1 report is now available at https://aas.org/satellite-constellations-1-workshop-report
The "Impact of Satellite Constellations" report's 2 findings and 10 recommendations:
It's a little bit disappointing that their first listed mitigation is basically "don't do it". That seems unrealistic and not particularly helpful.
Nighttime images without the passage of a Sun-illuminated satellite will no longer be the norm. If the 100,000 or more LEOsats proposed by many companies and many governments are deployed, no combination of mitigations can fully avoid the impacts of the satellite trails on the science programs of current and planned ground-based optical-NIR astronomy facilities. [...] Astrophotography, amateur astronomy, and the human experience of the stars and the Milky Way are already affected.
Many astronomical investigations collect data with the requirement of observing any part of the sky needed to achieve the research objective with uniform quality over the field of view. These include studies that are among the highest priorities in the discipline: stellar populations in the Milky Way and neighboring galaxies; searches for potentially hazardous near-Earth objects; identification of gravitational wave sources such as neutron star mergers; and wide-area searches for transiting exoplanets. At a minimum, a fraction of the area being imaged is lost to the trails or significantly reduced in S/N (signal-to-noise ratio). However, many of these areas of research also include a time-critical aspect and/or a rare, scientifically critical target. Such a missed target, even with low probability, will significantly diminish the scientific impact of the project. For example, if a near-Earth object is not recovered, its orbital parameters are lost. If the transit of a promising super-Earth exoplanet candidate is missed, the orbital timing may not be recovered. If the optical counterpart of a gravitational wave source is lost in the few percent of pixels in satellite trails, its rapid fading may preclude subsequent identification.
In 1995, the Hubble Space Telescope used its valuable observing time to do something seemingly frivolous: stare over ten days at a blank patch of sky. The target area was minuscule — just twice the apparent size of Venus in its crescent phase — but the resulting image, the Hubble Deep Field, revealed thousands of galaxies from the earliest history of the Universe. Subsequent deep field images revealed tens of thousands more galaxies in equally tiny patches of sky. Dark skies hold many secrets, and the flagship ground-based facilities of today are steadily revealing them. Vera C. Rubin Observatory will be online in the next decade. In upcoming decades a set of thirty-meter facilities will come online, expanding substantially our view to our origins. For numerous reasons of expense, maintenance, and instrumentation, these facilities cannot be operated from space. Ground-based astronomy is, and will remain, vital and relevant.
- Satellites can ruin detections [of fast transient events] as well as spectroscopic follow-up and, as the events fade very rapidly, the ability to re-acquire the data is lost.- Simultaneous data from optical/IR observatories and other detectors, such as neutrinos or gravitational waves (GW), represent a unique multi-messenger science opportunity in the next decade. As frequently as once a week, the network of GW detectors will detect events at very high S/N and within minutes will announce 90% likelihood areas on the sky. The first job is to detect any electromagnetic counterpart. [...] Owing to the time-critical nature, some of this search will occur during twilight. Satellite trails interfere with algorithms developed to distinguish real transient events from false detections.- Measuring the physics of dark matter and dark energy requires billions of extremely faint (26th magnitude) galaxies for which the shape must be accurately known to one part in 10,000. Science discoveries from these measurements will be more affected by systematics than by sample size. [...] The masked long satellite trails present a low surface brightness systematic error at the edge of the mask, generating a line of correlated noise — potentially producing a cosmic shear bias. Each satellite trail will have its own low surface brightness systematic error extending 30–60 arcseconds from the trail, depending on the satellite brightness. These residual errors and correlated linear noise features scale with trail brightness. l. Processing and artifact removal [...] is algorithmically feasible for satellite trails that are fainter than magnitude 7–8, but it represents additional work beyond the original scope of the project [...] , the sheer task of tackling these new systematic errors in the released data products is likely beyond the capability of many.- [NEOs inform] the formation and evolution of the Solar System, but the most direct motivation for discovering and characterizing NEOs is their potential to collide with the Earth and cause catastrophic damage to ecosystems and human civilization[/u]. NEO detection and characterization has a US congressional mandate and is also supported by the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. These surveys operate in the twilight hours when their targets are visible but also when satellite interference is worst. Pairs, triples, or quads of observations must be made within a short time in order to form a moving object “tracklet,” and the probability of a LEOsat trail interfering with this process is high. LEOsats already cause loss of data to Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, and other NEO surveys, effectively wiping out a long trail in the focal plane. Trails also generate spurious artifacts that can confuse automated pipelines. Just after evening twilight and just before morning twilight are the only usable parts of the night for detecting NEOs at low solar elongation. As currently understood, either the Starlink Generation 2 or the OneWeb scenario (of order 40,000 satellites) will significantly degrade twilight near-Sun observations [...] The satellite trail masking developed for the LSST pipeline processing is very promising, but it may also unintentionally remove trails originating from NEOs. [...] NEOSM will be sensitive to larger, more distant NEOs, not the myriad close-approachers that must be observed from the ground.- Spectroscopic observations generally cover smaller fields of view than imaging programs. However, exposure times can be much longer for spectroscopy. A bright satellite crossing could ruin the entire exposure, as it is not known a priori which observations are contaminated, forcing a repeat exposure or possible loss of science opportunity. With an 8 square degree field of view and long exposures (10–20 minutes), [DESI which completed its construction phase and will begin operations in 2021] it is not possible to “point between” satellite trails. [...] MSE will generally always target very faint sources, and so the signal from LEOsats will dominate over the science target. Practically speaking, this means that the observation of those targets will be precluded. LEOsats also leave a much wider trail than the effective size of low surface brightness objects, which will impact the necessarily long integration times for these faint objects. The largest contributor to this effective faint object size is the wide wings of the point-spread function (PSF) in typical turbulent air corresponding to good sky conditions (0.7 arcseconds FWHM seeing). Since the mean separation between fibers or slits in a 0.2–1.0-degree focal plane is comparable to LEOsat trail width, the probability of a LEOsat trail polluting one or more spectra is high with tens of thousands of LEOsats. Owing to the long exposure times, there is no mitigation for the next generation of large spectroscopic facilities where control of mid-exposure shuttering is not possible [...] . To mitigate the impacts, it is important to be able to promptly flag (within ~24 hours after the observations) which fibers were affected by a satellite. This implies developing the ability to access the positions of the satellites with a precision comparable to a fiber diameter, and with a timing accuracy of ~1 second. - Satellites prevent the use for faint galaxy science of the region of the frames extending up to 60 or more pixels away from their trails (i.e., 120-pixel diameter, equivalent to ~30 arcseconds swath). Bright (V mag < 12) image artifacts can make it difficult or impossible to detect faint galaxies in large regions of the field. This argument is generally true for extended regions of low surface brightness, or for any imaging program with the expectation of uniform signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) over 100% of the areal coverage.- [Exoplanet detection around] stars that fall near satellite trails will suffer from skewed and less precise photometry, as well as added noise. Exoplanet detection will be impossible for stars that fall directly under a trail. Some of the most severely affected targets will be the M dwarfs, since cooler stars (at a fixed distance) will suffer larger relative effects. With the full constellations deployed, it will be impossible to detect super-Earth planets around M dwarf stars crossed by satellite.- Arguably the most exciting and important science to come out of current and planned astronomical facilities will be the discoveries of types of objects and phenomena not yet observed nor predicted by theorists. It is impossible to calculate the risk or the impact of losing such opportunities to discover the unexpected without knowing what we’re missing. But some phenomena will surely go undiscovered as a result of significant interference from LEOsats.- In addition to the scientific value of the night sky, there is cultural and social value that is difficult, if not impossible, to quantify
SpaceX has shown that operators can reduce reflected sunlight through satellite body orientation, Sun shielding, and surface darkening. A joint effort to obtain higher accuracy public data on predicted locations of individual satellites (or ephemerides) could enable some pointing avoidance and mid-exposure shuttering during satellite passage. Observatories will need to adopt more dynamic scheduling and observation management as the number of constellation satellites increases, though even these measures will be ineffective for many science program.With state-of-the-art masking techniques for satellite trails and current understanding of systematics and losses induced by the requirement for such masking, the impact of higher altitude LEOsat constellations ranges from costly additional exposure time per area (at the 10–20% level or higher) to the complete loss of ability to study certain astrophysical problems.
But sure, all impacts are negligible or trivially solvable. Detractors of brute-force megaconstellations are just luddite irrational contrarians refusing to be illuminated by the NewDawn(C) of obscenely powerful billionaires who have the nerve to publicly claim now not even the sky is the limit for their greediness because no amount of riches is enough to ColonizeDeserticHell(TM) and trickle it down to the proles they're going to be secularly screwing. Lost unique science that has demonstrably and hugely advanced human life quality, knowledge, perception and even philosophy is undeniably fringe compared to the untold benefits of gaming/streaming video in the middle of nowhere from LEO (instead of the boring passively-available proper infrastructure investment), or military global strike comms, or something. As with climate change, gish galloping, censoring, self-censoring sect-style, and sealioning attacks on any attempt at conservation will ruthlessly proceed while the goalposts are moved, until "inevitability" and "it is what it is" can be called upon.
Quote from: eeergo on 08/26/2020 09:43 amBut sure, all impacts are negligible or trivially solvable. Detractors of brute-force megaconstellations are just luddite irrational contrarians refusing to be illuminated by the NewDawn(C) of obscenely powerful billionaires who have the nerve to publicly claim now not even the sky is the limit for their greediness because no amount of riches is enough to ColonizeDeserticHell(TM) and trickle it down to the proles they're going to be secularly screwing. Lost unique science that has demonstrably and hugely advanced human life quality, knowledge, perception and even philosophy is undeniably fringe compared to the untold benefits of gaming/streaming video in the middle of nowhere from LEO (instead of the boring passively-available proper infrastructure investment), or military global strike comms, or something. As with climate change, gish galloping, censoring, self-censoring sect-style, and sealioning attacks on any attempt at conservation will ruthlessly proceed while the goalposts are moved, until "inevitability" and "it is what it is" can be called upon.Huh? If you were intending to come across as an irrational contrarian, you succeeded.The irony of course, is that scientists are getting a taste of their own medicine, and they don't like it.Do scientists have a responsibility for the consequences from their discoveries?