Author Topic: For All Mankind  (Read 227815 times)

Online Blackstar

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #340 on: 03/12/2021 03:01 am »



Offline libra

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #341 on: 03/12/2021 10:54 am »
Nice video. An intriguing timeline they created, for sure. Lennon and Saddat survives but not the Pope; with the miracle on ice and Afghanistan invasion not happening. 
Clearly, they need USSR to survive over the long term.  :D 

I wonder if the late USSR senile leaders - Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko - have gone the same way as Jimmy Carter, that is - were they erased from that timeline ?

Brezhnev stagnation and seemingly never ending agony did half of the job of finishing USSR - all by themselves.

Offline sanman

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #342 on: 03/12/2021 06:07 pm »
Latest episode does some more pivoting.

They make a point of mentioning how NASA is increasingly funded by its ability to license its technologies to the private sector. How realistic of a prospect would that be, given the huge expenditures that would be required for sustaining a Moonbase, Skylab, and the Shuttle program?


It was very cool to see [spoiler]the arrival of Dr Sally Ride -- was wondering whether she was going to show up. In the episode, she's said to have worked on the nuclear propulsion system for the Pathfinder spacecraft.[/spoiler]

So the Pathfinder seems to mainly be meant for travel to Mars, but will it do any flights to the Moon as well, since it's the current focus of the storyline?

They still haven't explained how the regular Space Shuttle is making it to the Moon. Presumably some sort of refueling in LEO must be required for that.

I wonder if the late USSR senile leaders - Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko - have gone the same way as Jimmy Carter, that is - were they erased from that timeline ?

I think they've said Andropov is the current Soviet premier.
« Last Edit: 03/12/2021 06:33 pm by sanman »

Online Blackstar

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #343 on: 03/12/2021 06:51 pm »
They make a point of mentioning how NASA is increasingly funded by its ability to license its technologies to the private sector. How realistic of a prospect would that be, given the huge expenditures that would be required for sustaining a Moonbase, Skylab, and the Shuttle program?

There's the legal issue and then there is the practical issue. Just to be clear, you're asking about the latter (although the legal issue is a big policy question).

I think there is a line of dialogue that says that NASA gets some funding via this route, but they don't say how much. There is another line of dialogue later in the series that adds a bit more on the subject. But the show doesn't delve into this to any great extent. It's the background to the stories, not what the stories are about. But if you assume that NASA gets a percentage of every lithium battery sold or specific type of computer chip, it could add up to hundreds of millions a year, but seems really unlikely to add up to the billions that are funding the very substantial space program.

There are a lot of practical problems with this idea (and they tie into the legal ones), because such a situation incentivizes them to try and make more money this way, and skews their activities. They might start pursuing specific research that will make more money even if it is less useful to their space exploration mission. Management and oversight would be key to making it work well.

Online Blackstar

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #344 on: 03/12/2021 07:19 pm »
They still haven't explained how the regular Space Shuttle is making it to the Moon. Presumably some sort of refueling in LEO must be required for that.

There is a line of dialogue in the show (later episode) that they refuel at Skylab.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #345 on: 03/12/2021 08:20 pm »
NASA already licenses its patents to companies. Not sure how much they make...so this isn't really alternative history.

Quote
When you talk with the NASA licensing team, you will learn that there are 3 components to licensing fees:

an upfront fee—a lump sum payable on the signing of the patent license agreement. For non-exclusive licenses, these upfront fees usually range from $5,000 to $10,000, though we offer special licensing terms with no up-front fees to startup companies. Exclusive license fees are higher, and since each one is unique, it is difficult to provide an accurate range. It is through the upfront fees that NASA seeks to recover some of its investment in the patent filing and maintenance costs.
yearly minimum royalties—Based on the business plan, these fees are designed to ensure that licensees are actively engaged in working toward commercial applications.
running royalty percentage—Based on revenue, these fees are negotiated, but generally range anywhere from three to seven percent. They can also be negotiated down by a higher upfront fee. Within the range, fees may vary by the readiness/maturity of the technology, the industry application of the technology, and the exclusivity desired by your organization.
https://technology.nasa.gov/license

Offline tater

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #346 on: 03/12/2021 08:39 pm »
They still haven't explained how the regular Space Shuttle is making it to the Moon. Presumably some sort of refueling in LEO must be required for that.

There is a line of dialogue in the show (later episode) that they refuel at Skylab.

Where do they keep the what, ~450,000kg (?) of hypergolic propellants needed?

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #347 on: 03/13/2021 07:58 am »
Even if the payload bay was filled solid with hypergolic propellant tanks; I doubt there'd be enough delta-v and thrust for the OMS engines to slow it into LLO, boost it out of LLO and then slow into LEO. I sincerely doubt the Orbiter shape and TPS could survive a direct-entry into Earth's atmosphere; traveling more than 36,000 feet per second!!
« Last Edit: 03/13/2021 09:27 am by MATTBLAK »
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Offline libra

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #348 on: 03/13/2021 12:36 pm »
In For all mankind timeline they have electric cars right from the 80's.

https://jalopnik.com/theres-a-very-plausible-alternate-history-1980s-electri-1846325454

Seems like the NiH2 and NiMH batteries developped faster.

Quote
    The development of nickel–hydrogen cells was started by COMSAT Laboratories in 1970 [40]. After the initial demonstration of the feasibility of the nickel–hydrogen cell, INTELSAT funded COMSAT Laboratories to develop a 50 A-h cell, and in 1975, this development had progressed to the point that the US Naval Research Laboratory funded COMSAT Laboratories to develop a 35 A-h nickel–hydrogen cell for use on the US Navy’s Navigation Technology Satellite (NTS-2) spacecraft shown in Figure 20 [40, 42]. The NTS-2, launched in 1977, was the first use of nickel–hydrogen battery technology in space. Nickel–hydrogen cells were then put in service on Intelsat V, VI, and VII satellites from 1983 through 1996 [43, 44].

I was wondering, there are (plenty of) cars with NiMH batteries - but would it possible to build a NiH2 electric car ?

https://www.elektormagazine.com/news/nimh-batteries-get-an-upgrade

ITTL NASA improved NiH2 and NiMH batteries for the LRV successor in the 70's and this led to earlier electric cars on Earth solid ground, by the early 80's... 

Offline GusReid

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #349 on: 03/13/2021 05:26 pm »
I noticed that Pathfinder looks a lot like the Delta Glider SSTO from Orbiter (http://orbit.medphys.ucl.ac.uk/), with a Shuttle cockpit bolted on  the front. Was there a real-life concept that both of these are cribbing from? I guess the winglets look quite Dyna-Soar ish.

Offline libra

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #350 on: 03/13/2021 05:43 pm »

Offline ncb1397

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #351 on: 03/13/2021 06:41 pm »
Even if the payload bay was filled solid with hypergolic propellant tanks; I doubt there'd be enough delta-v and thrust for the OMS engines to slow it into LLO, boost it out of LLO and then slow into LEO. I sincerely doubt the Orbiter shape and TPS could survive a direct-entry into Earth's atmosphere; traveling more than 36,000 feet per second!!

Actually, it would be very close to LLO (assuming the dry mass of the orbiter doesn't change much). You could easily fit 300 t of hypergolic fuel in the cargo bay.

315*9.8 * ln(370/70) = 5140 m/s.

LLO requires almost exactly that (TLI is 3.2 km/s). Of course, 100 t of hydrolox fuel gets you almost the same performance and would also approximately fit in the cargo bay.

453 *9.8*ln(170/70) = 3940 m/s.

Hydrolox would require staging in a higher orbit but such a move requires much less propellant mass.

Shuttle actually got pretty close to flying a pretty big hydrogen tank in the cargo bay in our timeline through the shuttle centaur program.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle-Centaur
« Last Edit: 03/13/2021 06:43 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline sanman

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #352 on: 03/13/2021 07:13 pm »
Even if the payload bay was filled solid with hypergolic propellant tanks; I doubt there'd be enough delta-v and thrust for the OMS engines to slow it into LLO, boost it out of LLO and then slow into LEO. I sincerely doubt the Orbiter shape and TPS could survive a direct-entry into Earth's atmosphere; traveling more than 36,000 feet per second!!

Maybe they're skipping off the uppermost part of the atmosphere multiple times, before actual re-entry?

Maybe they're not using Shuttle's OMS to travel to the Moon. Could it be possible that the main external tank still stays attached, and gets refueled at Skylab, to allow Shuttle's main engines to be used? (Okay, that would require a major propellant depot at Skylab that doesn't suffer boiloff).
But I'd read somewhere that the main external tank gets very close to orbital velocity. Maybe they're making use of them somehow for propellant depot purposes?

(Yes, we're getting desperately hand-wavey here to make things work, but what if...)
« Last Edit: 03/13/2021 07:15 pm by sanman »

Offline libra

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #353 on: 03/13/2021 07:34 pm »
Even if the payload bay was filled solid with hypergolic propellant tanks; I doubt there'd be enough delta-v and thrust for the OMS engines to slow it into LLO, boost it out of LLO and then slow into LEO. I sincerely doubt the Orbiter shape and TPS could survive a direct-entry into Earth's atmosphere; traveling more than 36,000 feet per second!!

Actually, it would be very close to LLO (assuming the dry mass of the orbiter doesn't change much). You could easily fit 300 t of hypergolic fuel in the cargo bay.

315*9.8 * ln(370/70) = 5140 m/s.

LLO requires almost exactly that (TLI is 3.2 km/s). Of course, 100 t of hydrolox fuel gets you almost the same performance and would also approximately fit in the cargo bay.

453 *9.8*ln(170/70) = 3940 m/s.

Hydrolox would require staging in a higher orbit but such a move requires much less propellant mass.

Shuttle actually got pretty close to flying a pretty big hydrogen tank in the cargo bay in our timeline through the shuttle centaur program.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle-Centaur

Hell, yes. The Shuttle payload bay is a cylinder with a radius of 7.5 feet (15 feet diameter) and 60 feet long.
Volume =  πr2h
=    π×7.52×60
=    3375π
=    10602.9 feet3

10603 cubic feet are 300 000 L. With a density close from water, 1 L of storable would weight 1 kg, so 300 000 L would be indeed 300 metric tons.

Geez, we heard so many times the Shuttle orbiter payload is 30 metric tons, never thought it could carry 10 times that mass in liquid. Crazy, when you think about it.

From there, surely, with 300 metric tons of storable props in the bay, it can go... pretty far.

TLI or Earth escape takes 3.1 km/s ; LLO  takes +1 km/s "in" and +1 km/s "out". 

How about that... the Shuttle could go to LLO on the freakkin' OMS pods alone.

 Except the bay would be filled to the brim, so where would the Lunar Module go ?

Perhaps send ahead to a lunar orbit space station and the Shuttle crew commute there, to the surface...

Offline tater

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #354 on: 03/13/2021 07:43 pm »
Yes, it can hold perhaps ~300t of propellants in the bay, but as it can only bring a fraction of that up at a time, so it requires 10+ Shuttle flights to tank one up for TLI—to get ~8 people, and zero additional payload to LLO (depending on what the actual mass of an orbiter is for that mission profile minus the props (consumables, etc, included)).

Offline MATTBLAK

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #355 on: 03/13/2021 09:02 pm »
If The OMS engines were also the version of AJ-10 that the Apollo CSM main engine used - the one with 20,000 pounds thrust each - and the payload bay were filled with hypergolic prop tank age, minus enough space for the reusable LM's docking interface....

A lot of hand waving to get there. I would never believe in the standard Shuttle shape doing a direct Earth entry from the Moon trajectory though. A craft like that would be better off being a really big capsule.
« Last Edit: 03/15/2021 12:58 am by MATTBLAK »
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Offline sanman

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #356 on: 03/13/2021 09:48 pm »
About Gordo...

Whatever's going on with him, it seems to have started when he took that solo excursion away from the Jamestown moonbase.

I'm going to go out on a limb with speculation here -- but is it possible that he was the victim of an abduction and subsequent brainwashing to block him from remembering it?
I'm not necessarily talking about an alien abduction, a la Barney & Betty Hill. Maybe he was kidnapped by the Soviets, and interrogated, etc. Maybe these episodes that he keeps having are repressed memories trying to resurface.

Remember that the Soviets did manage to bug Jamestown base somehow. We're told that it likely happened while Baldwin was passed out drunk, perhaps allowing his Soviet prisoner an opportunity for this. But could a brainwashed Gordo have done the bugging instead?

Is it possible Gordo is some kind of Manchurian Candidate?

Otherwise, his sudden development of PTSD-like symptoms on the Moon seem odd.
I don't know what the history is of astronauts developing any psychiatric disorders from their space missions.
Usually there's a toll on the body, due to the physical problems from being in space, especially for prolonged periods.
Typically, one would expect that astronaut candidates have to pass psychological screening tests to ensure mental fitness.

Offline sanman

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #357 on: 03/14/2021 07:16 pm »
so I messaged one of the show writers:

Quote
hey man, I want to know why Sally Ride only gets to be in just this one episode, when she was the first American woman in space in real life. I was hoping she'd be a recurrent character like other historical American figures of note also were, but IMDB shows that she only appears in this one episode. I was hoping they'd maybe make her the first woman on Mars, given that she was bumped by Molly Cobb as the first American woman in space.


reply came back:

Quote
30 minutes ago
  thanks for the great question!   First, gotta remember this is an 'alternate history', so things won't track all the time with real history. AND, I recommend you keep watching the show... IMDB doesn't always show accurate casting until episodes have aired. Sometimes that's so secrets can be kept! (wink)  :)


Hmm, so it remains to be seen... will we get to see more of Sally Ride?

Previous season gave us Wehrner Von Braun, Gene Kranz, and Deke Slayton as recurrent reality-based characters of the 70s.

This season, the only real world person from the 80s to show up so far has been Sally Ride.
(We can't count 'Shuttle commander' Garrett Reisman, since he would have still been in highschool in the 80s)


further exchange:

Quote
I think that it would have been better to show Danielle referencing her sacrifice for Gordo, and trying to prod Baldwin's conscience on that point, rather than playing a race card.

reply:

Quote
1 hour ago
I think Danielle got a seed planted in her from the scene before, when she's visiting Calyton's sister... his sister made a point about 'back of the bus', and the theme of racism and sexism in the show reflect really situations from the time, AND also play alternate possibilities. Lots to come! :)
« Last Edit: 03/14/2021 08:11 pm by sanman »

Online Blackstar

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #358 on: 03/14/2021 07:24 pm »
Hmm, so it remains to be seen... will we get to see more of Sally Ride?

Previous season gave us Wehrner Von Braun, Gene Kranz, and Deke Slayton as recurrent characters of the actual 70s.

This season, the only real world person from the 80s to show up has been Sally Ride.
(We can't count 'Shuttle commander' Garrett Reisman, since he would have still been in highschool in the 80s)

She's training for the Pathfinder mission, right?

Also, we saw Wubbo.

Offline sanman

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Re: For All Mankind
« Reply #359 on: 03/14/2021 07:39 pm »
She's training for the Pathfinder mission, right?

Yeah, good point - that's why it seems logical to see more of her - at least for this season.


Quote
Also, we saw Wubbo.

Ah, true - forgot about him - but he got explicitly taken out in the same episode.

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