SpaceX F9 : ANASIS-II : July 20, 2020

[wannamoonbase]

What's going on? Cold feet? Just kidding. I am glad they are taking their time to make sure that success is the most likely outcome.

Very true. As they say, there is millions of ways a launch could go wrong, and only one way it can go right.

I'm glad they are taking their time, I'm certain they will fly when they are ready.

However, this is not paint a good picture for full and rapid reuseability.  Clearly there is a lot of work to do.

[drnscr]

What's going on? Cold feet? Just kidding. I am glad they are taking their time to make sure that success is the most likely outcome.

Very true. As they say, there is millions of ways a launch could go wrong, and only one way it can go right.

I'm glad they are taking their time, I'm certain they will fly when they are ready.

However, this is not paint a good picture for full and rapid reuseability.  Clearly there is a lot of work to do.

I’m not sure how an issue with a second stage (always new at this point) is painting a bad picture for reuseablity

[Alvian@IDN]

What's going on? Cold feet? Just kidding. I am glad they are taking their time to make sure that success is the most likely outcome.

Very true. As they say, there is millions of ways a launch could go wrong, and only one way it can go right.

I'm glad they are taking their time, I'm certain they will fly when they are ready.

However, this is not paint a good picture for full and rapid reuseability.  Clearly there is a lot of work to do.

I’m not sure how an issue with a second stage (always new at this point) is painting a bad picture for reuseablity

Maybe a correct word is "rapid launch cadence"

[spacenut]

Is the launch still on for July 14?  What time? 

[gongora]

Is the launch still on for July 14?  What time?

It has been delayed, we don't know the new date yet

[Zpoxy]

What's going on? Cold feet? Just kidding. I am glad they are taking their time to make sure that success is the most likely outcome.

Very true. As they say, there is millions of ways a launch could go wrong, and only one way it can go right.

I'm glad they are taking their time, I'm certain they will fly when they are ready.

However, this is not paint a good picture for full and rapid reuseability.  Clearly there is a lot of work to do.

I’m not sure how an issue with a second stage (always new at this point) is painting a bad picture for reuseablity

Maybe a correct word is "rapid launch cadence"

Maybe, but "rapid reusability" and "rapid launch cadence" are two separate things.

[capoman]

Certainly understand SpaceX's cautiousness. Although they are checking second stage, rapid launch cadence also means they are speeding up manufacturing of second stages as well. This might mean they are taking extra care to make sure they are maintaining reliability of the second stages as they scale up their manufacturing rate. A loss of mission could set their reusability plans back a bit, whether the failure was first or second stage.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/nasa_nerd/status/1283036609982738438

Is SpaceX targetting a Sunday evening launch from the Cape with ANASIS II?  NOTAM issued.

[RocketLover0119]

https://twitter.com/nasa_nerd/status/1283036609982738438

Is SpaceX targetting a Sunday evening launch from the Cape with ANASIS II?  NOTAM issued.

And here is the link to that NOTAM:

https://tfr.faa.gov/save_pages/detail_0_9326.html

[input~2]

Yes, Sunday evening, ~2050Z

A1123/20 (Issued for KZMA PART 1 OF 3) - EROP X0138 FALCON-9 K-MILSAT-1.  ATTENTION AIRLINE DISPATCHERS,
SOME OPS APPEAR TO BE USING THE NOTAM BEGINNING TIME TO START FILING
ROUTES AROUND THE LAUNCH OP. BECAUSE OF THE INDEFINITE OPENING TIME,
SOME AIRLINE OPS ARE REROUTING FLTS UNNECESSARILY.  LAUNCH HAZARD
AREA TIMES IN THE NOTAM ARE ALT SPECIFIC AND DO NOT AFFECT ALL OPS.
THIS NOTAM CONTAINS A BREAKDOWN OF THE TIMES FOR PRE-LAUNCH AND
LAUNCH CLOSURES. THE FOLLOWING AIRSPACE IS IN USE FOR A MISSILE
LAUNCH/SPLASH DOWN.
EFF: 2007191855  2007200147 W497A WEST OF 80 WEST, SFC-5000FT MSL
EFF: 2007191855  2007200147 CAPE-A ATC ASSIGNED AIRSPACE, SFC-FL180
EFF: 2007192025  2007200147 R2933, 5000FT MSL-UNL
EFF: 2007192025  2007200147 R2934, SFC-UNL
EFF: 2007192055  2007200147 AIRCRAFT HAZARD AREAS DEFINED IN CARF
NOTAMS FOR ALTITUDE RESERVATIONS IN ZMA, ZNY AND ZWY AIRSPACE. SEE
CARF NOTAMS FOR ALT RESERVATION (ALTRV) ER OP X0138 FLCN9
K-MILSAT-1. ALL TRAFFIC REGARDLESS OF ALT MUST BE ESTIMATED TO CLEAR
OCEANIC ALTRV AT OR BEFORE 2007192050. KZNY REQUEST ACFT CERTIFIED
END PART 1 OF 3. SEE TEXT, 19 JUL 18:55 2020 UNTIL 20 JUL 01:47 2020. CREATED:
14 JUL 13:38 2020

[The Roadie]

I’m not sure how an issue with a second stage (always new at this point) is painting a bad picture for reuseablity

Indeed. One way this situation comes up is if the factory or McGregor has some issue (out of family data...component failure.....mfg process concern....QA escape) that *might* implicate hardware later in the process or even on the pad. Out of a real "abundance of caution" [as the silly phrase goes], they stop the launch, and deal with the possible nonconformance.

Like the CRS-7 COPV strut - if they had tested the factory strut inventory out of some random suspicion, and found one weak one, I have every confidence they would have pulled and replaced the entire field inventory with tested ones, even if it was a LV that had passed static fire and was ready to go.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/nasa_nerd/status/1283813864463835138

45th Weather Squadron has just issued a Launch Mission Execution Forecast for SpaceX Falcon 9 with ANASIS II from SLC-40.  Calling for 60% of acceptable conditions on Sunday, July 19th.   Launch window opens at 5:00pm EDT and extends to 8:55pm.

Edit to add: 45th L-3 forecast now attached

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/openkevin/status/1284080263694364673

we've got movement! @SpaceXFleet

twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1284107815766851587

Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief have departed from Port Canaveral for the ANASIS-II mission! (These photos are amazing - taken from the Disney Wonder cruise ship)

https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1284108004263104512

Catching nets are currently lowered but... Ms. Tree has set a destination of... CATCH TIME!

There is hope...!

[FutureSpaceTourist]

L-2 launch weather forecast still 60% GO

[FutureSpaceTourist]

L-1 weather forecast has improved to 70% GO

[Rekt1971]

Isn't it little weird that SpaceX still hasn't confirmed tomorrow's launch attempt?

[Thunderscreech]

https://twitter.com/spacetfrs/status/1284578707961556992?s=21

This seems to signal the possible movement of the launch right to the 21st unless it’s just a backup.

[Ken the Bin]

The NGA has sent this update with the 19th removed and the 21st added as the alternate:

181952Z JUL 20
NAVAREA IV 629/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   202055Z TO 210147Z JUL, ALTERNATE
   212055Z TO 220147Z JUL
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-36-58N 080-36-03W, 28-36-00N 079-59-00W,
      28-31-00N 079-59-00W, 28-30-07N 080-32-51W,
      28-31-21N 080-33-27W.
   B. 28-08-00N 076-07-00W, 28-41-00N 076-07-00W,
      28-47-00N 073-09-00W, 28-47-00N 072-04-00W,
      28-34-00N 071-34-00W, 27-50-00N 071-34-00W,
      27-32-00N 072-03-00W, 27-32-00N 073-08-00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 618/20.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 220247Z JUL 20.

The canceled notice is this one for the 19th and 20th:

142004Z JUL 20
NAVAREA IV 618/20(11,26).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
FLORIDA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   192055Z TO 200147Z JUL, ALTERNATE
   202055Z TO 210147Z JUL
   IN AREAS BOUND BY:
   A. 28-36-58N 080-36-03W, 28-36-00N 079-59-00W,
      28-31-00N 079-59-00W, 28-30-07N 080-32-51W,
      28-31-21N 080-33-27W.
   B. 28-08-00N 076-07-00W, 28-41-00N 076-07-00W,
      28-47-00N 073-09-00W, 28-47-00N 072-04-00W,
      28-34-00N 071-34-00W, 27-50-00N 071-34-00W,
      27-32-00N 072-03-00W, 27-32-00N 073-08-00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 210247Z JUL 20.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1284580735899271168

The SpaceX recovery fleet is in position for the ANASIS-II mission.

JRTI droneship is 645 km downrange, the fairing catchers are 782 km downrange.

[king1999]

Isn't it little weird that SpaceX still hasn't confirmed tomorrow's launch attempt?

What I suspect (pure speculation) is that there were some close calls in the second stage(s) in the recent missions from telemetry, and that's why Elon has made a "paranoid" comment.