Also as other people pointed out, launch doesn't seem to be the constraint. Even if Amazon had infinite launchers, it doesn't seem like they will be able to build enough satellites in time. Going from a couple satellites a year to ~500 a year seems to be a tall order.
Quote from: c4fusion on 05/14/2024 01:23 pmAlso as other people pointed out, launch doesn't seem to be the constraint. Even if Amazon had infinite launchers, it doesn't seem like they will be able to build enough satellites in time. Going from a couple satellites a year to ~500 a year seems to be a tall order.500/yr is insufficient. They need 1616 between now and July 2026 , which is bit more than 2 years. That's more like 800/yr. Fortunately for them, they seem to think their factory can grow to 5/day, which would be 1250/yr if working 250 days/yr.
Wait, if a single launch can do 20 or so sats if using Starlink as a reasonable analog, that's 25 to 40+ (->63?) launches a year?!?
Amazon prepares to wrap successful Project Kuiper prototype missionProject Kuiper is actively deorbiting its two prototype satellites ahead of a full-scale deployment of its production satellite system.Amazon is committed to building a sustainable business for its customers, communities, and the world, and that focus extends to Project Kuiper, our low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite broadband network.When we began our Protoflight mission last October with the launch of two prototype satellites—KuiperSat-1 and KuiperSat-2—we laid out a series of tests to validate our technology and mission procedures. Within 30 days of launch, we achieved a 100% success rate across our key mission objectives, with every major system and subsystem on board performing nominally or better on orbit.Demonstrating safe, controlled satellite maneuvering was one of the most critical of those early tests, and achieving that milestone allowed us to continue experiments over the past seven months. Learnings from those studies have informed how we’ll manage our satellite constellation and broadband network as we prepare to begin offering Project Kuiper connectivity services.The last milestone in our Protoflight mission is deorbiting Kuipersat-1 and Kuipersat-2. As part of our orbital debris mitigation plan and broader commitment to space safety and sustainability, we plan to actively deorbit all satellites within one year of their mission ending, and this final phase in the Protoflight mission will allow us to collect data on the deorbit process as we gradually lower satellites from their initial target altitude.Over the next several months, we will continue using the active propulsion systems onboard KuiperSat-1 and KuiperSat-2 to execute a series of controlled maneuvers. Combined with natural drag from the Earth’s atmosphere, those maneuvers will gradually lower satellites to an altitude of around 217 miles (350 kilometers), at which point atmospheric demise will follow. Throughout this process, we will continue to share the satellites’ movements and ephemeris data with other spaceflight operators and use active collision avoidance as needed to further reduce risk.Preparing for the next phase of Project KuiperOn the ground, we are continuing to prepare for a full-scale deployment of our satellite network. We’re scaling satellite manufacturing at Kuiper facilities in Kirkland and Redmond, Washington; installing gateway stations and telemetry, tracking and control (TT&C) sites in countries around the world; and continuing construction on a dedicated satellite-processing facility at Kennedy Space Center. With more than 2,000 people at Amazon working on Project Kuiper, these ongoing investments ensure we have the people and infrastructure required to operate and scale our network, and to deliver on our mission to bring high-speed, low-latency broadband to customers and communities around the world.
Quote3 more launches on the 2024 manifest or am I miss counting?https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1801815156701200696Quote3 more Vulcans and 2 Atlases
3 more launches on the 2024 manifest or am I miss counting?
3 more Vulcans and 2 Atlases
Total will be twice a month. Next year that’ll be roughly half Vulcan and half Atlas. Starting in 2026, it’ll be almost all Vulcan until the last Atlas flys out. Then all Vulcan
Actually, “current” cadence is 8 to 12 launches per year, prior peak of 16. In 2023 we only launched 3 times while sorting out the Centaur V ground test anomaly. Back to normal this year. Up to around 20 next year, if the payloads show up. Then on to 25 the following year
[snipped Tory tweet]QuoteActually, “current” cadence is 8 to 12 launches per year, prior peak of 16. In 2023 we only launched 3 times while sorting out the Centaur V ground test anomaly. Back to normal this year. Up to around 20 next year, if the payloads show up. Then on to 25 the following yearWTH is "current? A quick look:2020 62021 52022 82023 3Back to "normal" would be a half dozen a year. Any way I look at it, ULA is attempting a (historically speaking) steep ramp rate.
Quote from: xyv on 06/15/2024 10:27 pm [snipped Tory tweet]QuoteActually, “current” cadence is 8 to 12 launches per year, prior peak of 16. In 2023 we only launched 3 times while sorting out the Centaur V ground test anomaly. Back to normal this year. Up to around 20 next year, if the payloads show up. Then on to 25 the following yearWTH is "current? A quick look:2020 62021 52022 82023 3Back to "normal" would be a half dozen a year. Any way I look at it, ULA is attempting a (historically speaking) steep ramp rate.Tory chooses his words carefully, and note that he placed "current" in quotes. A launch rate of 8/yr is one every 1.5 months. They launched Starliner on 5 June, and intend to launch USSF-51 on Atlas "real soon now". If you wave your hands and squint the "current" rate is the cadence defined by the 5 June launch of Starliner and the upcoming launch of the USSF-51. If it launches on 5 July, that's a current cadence of 12/yr. If it launches on 20 July, that's 8/yr.Alternatively, "current" means 2024 manifest, which is 3 already launched plus 5 to launch, or 8/yr. But the last four will probably launch in the last four months of 2024, so a cadence of 12/yr by the end of 2024.If you cannot interpret numbers positively, you will never make it as a used car salesman.
Quote from: xyv on 06/15/2024 10:27 pm [snipped Tory tweet]QuoteActually, “current” cadence is 8 to 12 launches per year, prior peak of 16. In 2023 we only launched 3 times while sorting out the Centaur V ground test anomaly. Back to normal this year. Up to around 20 next year, if the payloads show up. Then on to 25 the following yearWTH is "current? A quick look:👀 2020 62021 52022 82023 3Back to "normal" would be a half dozen a year. Any way I look at it, ULA is attempting a (historically speaking) steep ramp rate.Tory chooses his words carefully, and note that he placed "current" in quotes. A launch rate of 8/yr is one every 1.5 months. They launched Starliner on 5 June, and intend to launch USSF-51 on Atlas "real soon now". If you wave your hands and squint the "current" rate is the cadence defined by the 5 June launch of Starliner and the upcoming launch of the USSF-51. If it launches on 5 July, that's a current cadence of 12/yr. If it launches on 20 July, that's 8/yr.Alternatively, "current" means 2024 manifest, which is 3 already launched plus 5 to launch, or 8/yr. But the last four will probably launch in the last four months of 2024, so a cadence of 12/yr by the end of 2024.If you cannot interpret numbers positively, you will never make it as a used car salesman.
[snipped Tory tweet]QuoteActually, “current” cadence is 8 to 12 launches per year, prior peak of 16. In 2023 we only launched 3 times while sorting out the Centaur V ground test anomaly. Back to normal this year. Up to around 20 next year, if the payloads show up. Then on to 25 the following yearWTH is "current? A quick look:👀 2020 62021 52022 82023 3Back to "normal" would be a half dozen a year. Any way I look at it, ULA is attempting a (historically speaking) steep ramp rate.
Only two more Atlas on the manifest for this year according to Tory.https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=60664.msg2601094#msg2601094Those should be USSF-51 and Viasat-3. That suggests that no Kuiper launches are expected this year.
When will Project Kuiper service be available?Project Kuiper is a long-term initiative. Our FCC license requires that we deploy and operate at least half of our satellite constellation by July 2026. We launched our first two prototype satellites on October 6, 2023, and after achieving 100% success with that mission, we expect to begin deploying our satellite constellation in 2024 and rolling out commercial service in 2025.
QuoteWhen will Project Kuiper service be available?Project Kuiper is a long-term initiative. Our FCC license requires that we deploy and operate at least half of our satellite constellation by July 2026. We launched our first two prototype satellites on October 6, 2023, and after achieving 100% success with that mission, we expect to begin deploying our satellite constellation in 2024 and rolling out commercial service in 2025.
On December 14th 2023 Amazon stated that:“Project Kuiper is beginning satellite manufacturing ahead of a full-scale deployment that starts in the first half of 2024, and we expect to have enough satellites deployed to begin early customer pilots in the second half of 2024.”https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/innovation-at-amazon/amazon-project-kuiper-oisl-space-laser-december-2023-updateOnly six months later we now have the possibility of a single Kuiper launch by the end of the year; and we all know what happens to that kind of target.It’s been obvious for a long time that Kuiper has serious launch capacity issues. The surprise is that they have let themselves fall so far behind the curve on satellite manufacturing that they cannot effectively use the launch capacity they have.
