Amazon Project Kuiper Broadband Constellation

[DanClemmensen]

This is equivalent to saying that Kuiper will not make the July 2026 deadline to launch 1616 satellites. That in turn means they must plan to get a waiver from the FCC. But I suspect that just about everybody in the industry, not just SpaceX, will oppose that.

I wouldn't be so sure that many others will oppose a short waiver.  SpaceX probably will not, because its operations could be impacted the most in the future with any negative precedent.

How short is "short"? By representing that they would make use of those frequencies, they denied them to other potential providers. That may be a worse precedent than denial of waiver would be. I think the delay would be 18 months minimum.

I think they will need all of the eight Atlas V plus 38 Vulcans (and three Falcon 9) to make the deadline, and I just cannot see how ULA can launch 38 Vulcans by then. If ULA starts launching in January 2025, they need to launch 46 times from SLC-41 in 18 months, an average of 2.5 launches/month. This is likely to be a challenge for an LV that first launched in January 2024.

[Asteroza]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

[Rebel44]

IMO, the waiver request and how it will be seen (and potentially opposed by others) will depend on how many satellites Kuiper will have in orbit when they request the waiver. If they submit it with just a few hundred satellites in orbit and heading towards having let's say 500 in orbit by the deadline, it will look wayyyyy worse than if they would be on the way to having 1000+ in orbit by the deadline.

I expect that Amazon will need to order something like 30+ additional Falcon 9 launches - and potentially do so quite soon (my understanding is that if you want a launch slot in less than a year, you pay some extra fee(s)). Also, depending on the Vulcan launch and certification schedule delays, the USSF might transfer some launches to Flacon 9 later this year, which would further strain how many launch slots would SpaceX be willing to make available at the cost of not launching Starlinks.

[Rebel44]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

[matthewkantar]

The workings of the range in Florida seem to be heading into interesting territory. What’s in store? Salvo launches? Lawsuits?

[RedLineTrain]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

SpaceX will need to get an extension on the V-band deadline.  Also, it seems wise for the company not to set precedents that they eventually will come to regret.

[Rebel44]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

SpaceX will need to get an extension on the V-band deadline.  Also, it seems wise for the company not to set precedents that they eventually will come to regret.

In March 2023 SpaceX submitted an application to add V-band payload to the second-generation satellites rather than fly phase 2 V-band satellites as originally planned and authorized. And their 50% FCC deadline is in November 2024 with 0 satellites deployed.

So, SpaceX is unlikely to need a deadline extension for Starlink.

I expect that SpaceX won't oppose Kuiper getting a reasonable (max 2 years) deadline extension if Amazon buys a decent number of launches from SpaceX.

[ThatOldJanxSpirit]

Frank Calvelli is reported in the Wapo to be concerned that Vulcan cadence won’t ramp fast enough to meet NSSL requirements.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/pentagon-worried-its-primary-satellite-launcher-can-t-keep-pace/ar-BB1mjLY3

I can’t say I’m surprised at this statement. I’d read this as a reminder that DoD is their primary customer and that they won’t be particularly happy if national security payloads are left waiting while ULA flys Kuiper.  I’ll be amazed if Vulcan plays a significant role, if any, in launching Kuiper before 2026.

[abaddon]

Frank Calvelli is reported in the Wapo to be concerned that Vulcan cadence won’t ramp fast enough to meet NSSL requirements.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/pentagon-worried-its-primary-satellite-launcher-can-t-keep-pace/ar-BB1mjLY3

I can’t say I’m surprised at this statement. I’d read this as a reminder that DoD is their primary customer and that they won’t be particularly happy if national security payloads are left waiting while ULA flys Kuiper.  I’ll be amazed if Vulcan plays a significant role, if any, in launching Kuiper before 2026.

Vulcan is Kuiper's best bet to put up large numbers of satellites, other than the Atlas V launchers they purchased of course.  They must really be betting the FCC and ITU will give them whatever extensions they need.

[DanClemmensen]

Frank Calvelli is reported in the Wapo to be concerned that Vulcan cadence won’t ramp fast enough to meet NSSL requirements.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/pentagon-worried-its-primary-satellite-launcher-can-t-keep-pace/ar-BB1mjLY3

I can’t say I’m surprised at this statement. I’d read this as a reminder that DoD is their primary customer and that they won’t be particularly happy if national security payloads are left waiting while ULA flys Kuiper.  I’ll be amazed if Vulcan plays a significant role, if any, in launching Kuiper before 2026.

Vulcan is Kuiper's best bet to put up large numbers of satellites, other than the Atlas V launchers they purchased of course.  They must really be betting the FCC and ITU will give them whatever extensions they need.

Their best bet is Falcon 9, but they would need to commit to it very soon if it is one year ARO. Those eight Atlas V are not able to launch 1618 satellites.

[RedLineTrain]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

SpaceX will need to get an extension on the V-band deadline.  Also, it seems wise for the company not to set precedents that they eventually will come to regret.

In March 2023 SpaceX submitted an application to add V-band payload to the second-generation satellites rather than fly phase 2 V-band satellites as originally planned and authorized. And their 50% FCC deadline is in November 2024 with 0 satellites deployed.

So, SpaceX is unlikely to need a deadline extension for Starlink.

I expect that SpaceX won't oppose Kuiper getting a reasonable (max 2 years) deadline extension if Amazon buys a decent number of launches from SpaceX.

To put a finer point on this, by November 2024, SpaceX must launch 3,750 satellites with V-band packages into its Gen2 constellation (50% of 7,500).  We do not know how many V-band packages have been launched to date because it may be that the E-band packages that appear to have been launched on all v2-mini satellites can serve both bands to some extent.

Assuming that SpaceX still wants the V-band frequencies on 7,500 satellites, they will need a short deadline extension.  That needed extension can be as short as a few months and as long as a couple years, depending on the specs of the Gen2 satellites that it has launched.

[Rebel44]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

SpaceX will need to get an extension on the V-band deadline.  Also, it seems wise for the company not to set precedents that they eventually will come to regret.

In March 2023 SpaceX submitted an application to add V-band payload to the second-generation satellites rather than fly phase 2 V-band satellites as originally planned and authorized. And their 50% FCC deadline is in November 2024 with 0 satellites deployed.

So, SpaceX is unlikely to need a deadline extension for Starlink.

I expect that SpaceX won't oppose Kuiper getting a reasonable (max 2 years) deadline extension if Amazon buys a decent number of launches from SpaceX.

To put a finer point on this, by November 2024, SpaceX must launch 3,750 satellites with V-band packages into its Gen2 constellation (50% of 7,500).  We do not know how many V-band packages have been launched to date because it may be that the E-band packages that appear to have been launched on all v2-mini satellites can serve both bands to some extent.

Assuming that SpaceX still wants the V-band frequencies on 7,500 satellites, they will need a short deadline extension.  That needed extension can be as short as a few months and as long as a couple years, depending on the specs of the Gen2 satellites that it has launched.

SpaceX has abandoned those V-band satellites and informed the FCC about it

"However, the FCC noted that this is not a net increase in approved on-orbit satellites for SpaceX since SpaceX is no longer planning to deploy 7518 V-band satellites at 340 km (210 mi) altitude that had previously been authorized."

https://spacenews.com/fcc-grants-partial-approval-for-starlink-second-generation-constellation/

So, it is a non-factor regarding Starlink regulatory deadlines and the Gen2 constellation is ahead of time regarding regulatory deadlines.

[RedLineTrain]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

SpaceX will need to get an extension on the V-band deadline.  Also, it seems wise for the company not to set precedents that they eventually will come to regret.

In March 2023 SpaceX submitted an application to add V-band payload to the second-generation satellites rather than fly phase 2 V-band satellites as originally planned and authorized. And their 50% FCC deadline is in November 2024 with 0 satellites deployed.

So, SpaceX is unlikely to need a deadline extension for Starlink.

I expect that SpaceX won't oppose Kuiper getting a reasonable (max 2 years) deadline extension if Amazon buys a decent number of launches from SpaceX.

To put a finer point on this, by November 2024, SpaceX must launch 3,750 satellites with V-band packages into its Gen2 constellation (50% of 7,500).  We do not know how many V-band packages have been launched to date because it may be that the E-band packages that appear to have been launched on all v2-mini satellites can serve both bands to some extent.

Assuming that SpaceX still wants the V-band frequencies on 7,500 satellites, they will need a short deadline extension.  That needed extension can be as short as a few months and as long as a couple years, depending on the specs of the Gen2 satellites that it has launched.

SpaceX has abandoned those V-band satellites and informed the FCC about it

"However, the FCC noted that this is not a net increase in approved on-orbit satellites for SpaceX since SpaceX is no longer planning to deploy 7518 V-band satellites at 340 km (210 mi) altitude that had previously been authorized."

https://spacenews.com/fcc-grants-partial-approval-for-starlink-second-generation-constellation/

So, it is a non-factor regarding Starlink regulatory deadlines and the Gen2 constellation is ahead of time regarding regulatory deadlines.

SpaceX has abandoned its V-band constellation with 7,518 satellites.  In its place, the FCC has approved adding a V-band package to 7,500 satellites in SpaceX's Gen2 constellation.  However, the original deadline of 50% by November 2024 still holds.

[matthewkantar]

It seems everyone here assumes SpaceX’s launch capacity is the restraint on meeting deadlines. Do we know that to be true? Are there warehouses full of Starlink sats waiting for a ride?

[Rebel44]

An interesting scenario is if the threat of no waiver is real, how willing are both Amazon AND SpaceX to try to meet the deadline? Does SpaceX have enough breathing room to help Kuiper and meet their own Starlink deadlines (under the assumption Starship isn't ready in time to ease the load off Falcon 9)?

There's a political calculus here, where if Kuiper was that desperate, SpaceX lends a hand, and privately when Starlink is facing their own deadline, they can turn around and say to the FCC we helped OneWeb and Kuiper which directly impacted Starlink's deadline achievement when we didn't have to, so give us a waiver...

AFAIK, Starlink FCC deadlines are comfortably distant and SpaceX should not have a problem hitting them even with launches just on the Falcon 9.

SpaceX will need to get an extension on the V-band deadline.  Also, it seems wise for the company not to set precedents that they eventually will come to regret.

In March 2023 SpaceX submitted an application to add V-band payload to the second-generation satellites rather than fly phase 2 V-band satellites as originally planned and authorized. And their 50% FCC deadline is in November 2024 with 0 satellites deployed.

So, SpaceX is unlikely to need a deadline extension for Starlink.

I expect that SpaceX won't oppose Kuiper getting a reasonable (max 2 years) deadline extension if Amazon buys a decent number of launches from SpaceX.

To put a finer point on this, by November 2024, SpaceX must launch 3,750 satellites with V-band packages into its Gen2 constellation (50% of 7,500).  We do not know how many V-band packages have been launched to date because it may be that the E-band packages that appear to have been launched on all v2-mini satellites can serve both bands to some extent.

Assuming that SpaceX still wants the V-band frequencies on 7,500 satellites, they will need a short deadline extension.  That needed extension can be as short as a few months and as long as a couple years, depending on the specs of the Gen2 satellites that it has launched.

SpaceX has abandoned those V-band satellites and informed the FCC about it

"However, the FCC noted that this is not a net increase in approved on-orbit satellites for SpaceX since SpaceX is no longer planning to deploy 7518 V-band satellites at 340 km (210 mi) altitude that had previously been authorized."

https://spacenews.com/fcc-grants-partial-approval-for-starlink-second-generation-constellation/

So, it is a non-factor regarding Starlink regulatory deadlines and the Gen2 constellation is ahead of time regarding regulatory deadlines.

SpaceX has abandoned its V-band constellation with 7,518 satellites.  In its place, the FCC has approved adding a V-band package to 7,500 satellites in SpaceX's Gen2 constellation.  However, the original deadline of 50% by November 2024 still holds.

Wrong, the Gen2 license comes with new regulatory deadlines (December 1 2028 for 50% and December 1 2031 for 100%) for completion
here is the document: https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-22-91A1.pdf

[c4fusion]

Am I in the wrong thread? There seems to be only SpaceX stuff here.

Also as other people pointed out, launch doesn't seem to be the constraint.  Even if Amazon had infinite launchers, it doesn't seem like they will be able to build enough satellites in time.  Going from a couple satellites a year to ~500 a year seems to be a tall order.

[DanClemmensen]

Am I in the wrong thread? There seems to be only SpaceX stuff here.

Also as other people pointed out, launch doesn't seem to be the constraint.  Even if Amazon had infinite launchers, it doesn't seem like they will be able to build enough satellites in time.  Going from a couple satellites a year to ~500 a year seems to be a tall order.

Kuiper needs Falcon 9. They have already contracted for three F9 launches. F9 launches more than 90% of the world's payload mass to orbit, and an even higher percentage of the world's satellites. F9 is the only rocket that might have enough available capacity to let Kuiper meet its deadline.  Of course we are discussing F9, as it is critical to Kuiper.

Kuiper will compete with Starlink. Starlink capacity is increasing dramatically, and the Starlink constellation constitutes more than half of all satellites in orbit. Of course we are discussing Starlink, as Starlink competition is critical to the Kuiper business case.

Both OneWeb and Starlink were able to ramp up their satellite production reasonably quickly, so an outside observer (me) might think that Kuiper might do the same. An outside observer can no longer think that there is a way to launch 1618 Kuiper satellites before July 2026 without using Falcon 9.

[RedLineTrain]

Wrong, the Gen2 license comes with new regulatory deadlines (December 1 2028 for 50% and December 1 2031 for 100%) for completion
here is the document: https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-22-91A1.pdf

The V-band packages do not come with a new regulatory deadline.  They retain the old deadline.  See the attached V-band order.  This appears to have been done to avoid disadvantaging those not in the first round of the V-band licensing, such as Kuiper.  The FCC has no interest in maintaining unearned advantages.  SpaceX is very much on the clock to maintain its priority in V-band.

Bottom line is that if SpaceX wants leniency in the V-band, it can't oppose leniency for Kuiper in the Ka-band.  Besides, you never know when quibbling like that would come back to haunt you.

[StraumliBlight]

Amazon updated its Kuiper blog and conspicuously didn't mention a launch date.

Now, the team is shifting focus to the first full-scale launch of Kuiper production satellites, kicking off a regular cadence of launches to deploy the entire 3,232-satellite constellation.

The dedicated, 172,000-square-foot facility will allow Project Kuiper to build up to five satellites per day at peak capacity.

“With our manufacturing facility in Kirkland coming online, we’re able to ramp satellite production ahead of our first launch and move faster in our mission to connect the world,” said Steve Metayer, Project Kuiper’s vice president of production operations.

[RedLineTrain]

Am I in the wrong thread? There seems to be only SpaceX stuff here.

Also as other people pointed out, launch doesn't seem to be the constraint.  Even if Amazon had infinite launchers, it doesn't seem like they will be able to build enough satellites in time.  Going from a couple satellites a year to ~500 a year seems to be a tall order.

You are in the right thread.  Starlink, Kuiper, and Lightspeed have a common issue regarding the upcoming constellation launch deadlines.

The only real constraint is Amazon's sense of urgency, as it throws billions of dollars down the hole each year.  SpaceX has demonstrated that you can start launching your constellation in large numbers about a year after you obtain that sense of urgency.