Quote from: DreamyPickle on 04/05/2022 01:38 pmThis is a major industry-shifting event.For a very long time lack of demand was cited as the reason for not investing in reuse but after this contract and sanctions against Russia we are actually seeing a shortage of launch capability.Worth noting there were no wins for Neutron despite the fact that it should become available in this timeframe.Many people say that all the small-launch providers are just a bubble but with historic demand in the medium-lift sector we're likely to see even more investment. There is an opportunity for additional providers who can jump from small to medium rockets.I don’t see how this invalidates the idea that small-launch providers are in a bubble. I see 80+ launches for the next big mega-constellation announced today, and not one was awarded to Electron or Astra or Virgin Orbit. Small launch doesn’t make sense for mega-constellations. If these companies have to develop medium launchers to be viable then they are by definition no longer small launchers.
This is a major industry-shifting event.For a very long time lack of demand was cited as the reason for not investing in reuse but after this contract and sanctions against Russia we are actually seeing a shortage of launch capability.Worth noting there were no wins for Neutron despite the fact that it should become available in this timeframe.Many people say that all the small-launch providers are just a bubble but with historic demand in the medium-lift sector we're likely to see even more investment. There is an opportunity for additional providers who can jump from small to medium rockets.
..snip...Quote from: wannamoonbase on 04/05/2022 02:12 pmIt's exciting to see that many launches under contract, even if they will be 4-5 years behind Starlink.And slightly horrifying, when you realize Amazon is spending ~$7B on launch -- it makes Starship's development costs look quite reasonable by comparison. But Amazon is on a timeline and needs must, so...
It's exciting to see that many launches under contract, even if they will be 4-5 years behind Starlink.
I think it's interesting (and probably a bit risky for Amazon) that this is 68-83 launches on vehicles which have no flight heritage to date...
What is the timeline? FCC or ITU document or NSF post would be appreciated.
In its July 4, 2019 application, Kuiper proposes to deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband services by operating 3,236 satellites in 98 orbital planes at altitudes of 590 km, 610 km, and 630 km.
Section 25.164(b) requires Kuiper to launch and operate 50 percent of its satellites no later than July 30, 2026, and Kuiper must launch the remaining space stations necessary to complete its authorized service constellation, place them in their assigned orbits, and operate each of them in accordance with the authorization no later than July 30, 2029. 47 CFR § 25.164(b).
That means, if everything goes well with the prototypes, 3.5 years for ~half of the 83 launches (they don't have the same number of sats, NG is likely stacked at the end, etc...) meaning, at least 12 launches per year minimum. Should be doable.
...New Glenn - no estimate but I don't think will beat ULA and Vulcan/kg etc....
For sake of rough figures going to assume Falcon 9, Arianne 6, Vulcan and New Glenn all have the same capacity - most unfair to New Glenn - but even if New Glenn had twice the capacity of Falcon 9 was was getting 120 million per launch - I don't think BO would be looking at a profit - conjecture as yet to see prices but I have seen nothing that suggest BO knows how to do anything on a bang for buck basis.
Amazing post andrewi, Quote from: andrewi on 04/05/2022 05:29 pm...New Glenn - no estimate but I don't think will beat ULA and Vulcan/kg etc....Don't forget there are two prices for NG - "fully expendable" and "partially reusable".
Quote from: JayWee on 04/05/2022 05:39 pmAmazing post andrewi, Quote from: andrewi on 04/05/2022 05:29 pm...New Glenn - no estimate but I don't think will beat ULA and Vulcan/kg etc....Don't forget there are two prices for NG - "fully expendable" and "partially reusable". I've never heard this. Can you elaborate?
...New Glenn is capable of placing more satellites up per launch than the other LV's on contract. With a dispenser designed around its unique capabilities it could theoretically do even more.And yet by count of total satellites launched it will put up only 16% more than Ariane 6, and only 40% of what Vulcan will launch.That is remarkably dismal for a rocket that is designed specifically for low cost, large volume and large mass delivery to LEO.
Quote from: GWH on 04/05/2022 05:53 pmQuote from: JayWee on 04/05/2022 05:39 pmAmazing post andrewi, Quote from: andrewi on 04/05/2022 05:29 pm...New Glenn - no estimate but I don't think will beat ULA and Vulcan/kg etc....Don't forget there are two prices for NG - "fully expendable" and "partially reusable". I've never heard this. Can you elaborate?I meant how the BO decides at which price, based on internal costs, it can sell the launch to customer. Not that they offer these explicitely as an option like SX does with FH.BO says that the NG booster is designed to be reused up to 25 times. If that works as intended, they can offer launch at a certain price which consists of- (Booster cost/25 + refurbishment) + Upper stage cost + Profit. (the "partially reusable" price)However, NG is an untested rocket and judging by the SpaceX barge landing & reuse experience, there's a non-zero chance it will take a time to get there. So if you went to BO today to order a launch, the price *might* be closer to:.- Booster cost + Upper stage cost + Profit. (the "fully expendable" price)And remember the NG Booster is said to be expensive.Of course the fact that it's Amazon who is paying for the launches makes it kinda weird. Either BO losses money and Bezos sends more OR it makes Amazon effectively subsidize NG development.Might explain this from the other thread BTW: Quote from: GWH on 04/05/2022 05:46 pm...New Glenn is capable of placing more satellites up per launch than the other LV's on contract. With a dispenser designed around its unique capabilities it could theoretically do even more.And yet by count of total satellites launched it will put up only 16% more than Ariane 6, and only 40% of what Vulcan will launch.That is remarkably dismal for a rocket that is designed specifically for low cost, large volume and large mass delivery to LEO.
An Amazon executive said the cost to produce antennas for its proposed Project Kuiper megaconstellation is already “well under $500,” even as SpaceX retreats from the subsidized $499 price it charges customers for its operational Starlink terminals. “I actually think we can go lower, but when you get under $500 you can then start penciling out a business model that scales broadly, globally,” Dave Limp, senior vice president for Amazon Devices and Services, said during the 37th Space Symposium April 5 here. Amazon has been leveraging its experience in producing low-cost devices at scale, including Echo smart speakers and Kindle e-readers, to bring down manufacturing costs for an antenna that Limp said is about the size of an LP record.
Amazon and Telesat coordinate their planned NGSO constellationsQuote from: SpaceNewsAmazon and Telesat said Sept. 21 they have finalized spectrum arrangements to keep their planned satellites in non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) from interfering with each other.The coordination deals “ensure the coexistence” of their broadband constellations, the companies told the Federal Communications Commission in a letter.Both constellations plan to use Ka-band spectrum to provide broadband services to user terminals. Amazon secured a spectrum license for its Project Kuiper network as part of the FCC’s 2020 NGSO processing round, while Telesat’s Lightspeed was processed as part of an earlier 2016 round.
Amazon and Telesat said Sept. 21 they have finalized spectrum arrangements to keep their planned satellites in non-geostationary orbit (NGSO) from interfering with each other.The coordination deals “ensure the coexistence” of their broadband constellations, the companies told the Federal Communications Commission in a letter.Both constellations plan to use Ka-band spectrum to provide broadband services to user terminals. Amazon secured a spectrum license for its Project Kuiper network as part of the FCC’s 2020 NGSO processing round, while Telesat’s Lightspeed was processed as part of an earlier 2016 round.
Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellites will fly on the new Vulcan Centaur rocket in early 20232 minOctober 12, 2022Written by Amazon StaffAmazon created Project Kuiper to deliver fast, affordable broadband to unserved and underserved communities around the world, and our upcoming prototype mission will move us one step closer to delivering on that vision. Our first two satellites—Kuipersat-1 and Kuipersat-2—will be completed later this year, and we are now planning to deploy both satellites on the first flight of United Launch Alliance's (ULA) new Vulcan Centaur rocket in early 2023.Prototype mission updateULA is scheduled to provide 47 launches for our satellite constellation, and using Vulcan Centaur for this mission will give us practical experience working together ahead of those launches. The rocket will launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, and our prototype satellites are scheduled to share the ride with the Peregrine lunar lander, a NASA-funded spacecraft from Astrobotic.Our prototype mission will help us test how the different pieces of our satellite network work together, adding real-world data from space to results from our extensive lab testing, fieldwork, and simulation. We’ll use findings from the mission to help finalize design, deployment, and operational plans for our commercial satellite system, which will provide reliable, affordable broadband to customers around the world.“We couldn’t be more excited to join the first launch of ULA’s Vulcan Centaur. We’ve already secured 38 Kuiper launches on Vulcan, and using the same launch vehicle for our prototype mission gives us a chance to practice payload integration, processing, and mission management procedures ahead of those full-scale commercial launches,” said Rajeev Badyal, vice president of technology for Project Kuiper. “Our prototype satellites will be ready this year, and we look forward to flying with ULA.”Alongside preparations for this mission, the Project Kuiper team is starting to scale production to support a full deployment. Our first production satellites—the more advanced spacecraft that will power our commercial broadband service—are scheduled to launch on ULA’s Atlas V rocket. From there, we will begin to phase in the Vulcan rocket alongside newer heavy-lift rockets from two other space launch companies, Arianespace and Blue Origin.Amazon makes historic launch investment to advance Project KuiperAmazon has secured up to 92 launches with ULA, Arianespace, and Blue Origin to deploy its constellation of 3,236 satellites—marking the largest commercial procurement of launch vehicles in history. We also plan to retain two launches with ABL Space Systems, which was originally slotted to carry our two prototype satellites using its all-new RS1 rocket. This diverse launch portfolio reduces risk associated with launch vehicle stand-downs, and gives us flexibility to use different rockets to address different needs for the program.To support our ambitious deployment plan, Amazon and our partners are investing in new production and launch infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe. Many of those projects are already underway: ULA is expanding manufacturing facilities in Alabama, Northrup Grumman is increasing production and adding capacity in Utah for its solid rocket boosters, and Beyond Gravity is building a second satellite dispenser production facility in Linköping, Sweden. More than 1,000 people work on Project Kuiper, and the team is making considerable progress as we prepare to serve tens of millions of customers around the world. Stay tuned for updates on our prototype mission later this year.
Amazon $AMZN announces Project Kuiper expansion for satellite manufacturing, with plans for a 172,000 sq ft production facility:
Dave Limp, senior vice president of devices and services at Amazon, joins @PostLive to discuss Amazon’s plan to expand broadband access through satellites, his company’s satellite internet technology and ambitions in space.
Dave Limp tells @wapodavenport on possibly working with SpaceX to launch satellites: “Yes, we are open to talking to SpaceX. You’d be crazy not to given their track record here.” #PostLive
