NASA set to purchase more Soyuz seats to ensure uninterrupted access to the ISS

[woods170]

Why is the additional seat required?  DM-2 this weekend, Starliner by end of the year?

Starliner's first crewed launch is not expected until next year at the earliest, and could potentially be further delayed if any additional issues are uncovered by OFT 2. If DM-2 against all hope experiences an issue that results in delay of USCV-1, then there is the potential for a US residence gap. A Soyuz seat provides insurance against that event.

Even if DM-2 is perfect, they'd still like a little redundancy. They've dodged a huge bullet for nine years, depending on one capsule.

Likely. But let's not forget that NASA depended on the most reliable capsule out there. Reliability-wise there is nothing that comes even close to Soyuz.

[eeergo]

Fact remains that Sesquipedalian is incorrect in reply #45. This additionally bought Soyuz seat will by no means impact the outfitting of MLM. The astronaut taking this seat will be launched to the ISS in fall 2020. He/she will return to Earth 6 months later, in late spring 2021. MLM is not scheduled for launch until well AFTER said astronaut has already returned to Earth.

Therefore, had this seat not been sold to NASA, but had instead been taken up by a Russian cosmonaut, than that cosmonaut would already be back on Earth by the time MLM finally reaches the station. And said cosmonaut is not in a very good position to help outfit MLM when he/she is not actually present on ISS.

There are several EVAs scheduled in order for a Progress to jettison Pirs, and lay the groundwork for Nauka's arrival, before its launch - so yes, it's definitely impacting MLM preparations, even if there are workarounds.

You assume, incorrectly IMO, that those EVAs were to be co-performed by that now not-flying cosmonaut.

Not at all: IV crewmembers are just as necessary when we're talking about crew complements of 2-3 cosmonauts and critical EVAs. Admittedly as I said before, there likely are workarounds in that situation, including asking the US colleagues for help, plus the extra cash / credibility gained when giving up the seat likely makes up for the complications, or can even be useful as added rationale if a further delay in launching MLM is incurred. But the impact is clearly there in the autumn/winter timeframe even if the extra crewmember wasn't supposed to do internal MLM outfitting or direct EVA work, and it certainly is not negligible.

[AnnK]

The solution is to fly more Dragon 2 flights. Let the Russians fly space tourists again to fill the seats.

[abaddon]

Likely. But let's not forget that NASA depended on the most reliable capsule out there. Reliability-wise there is nothing that comes even close to Soyuz.

Nothing else has the track record of Soyuz, it is true.

I wonder if you compared Cargo Dragon with Progress what that would look like, though.  Cargo Dragon had the one spectacular failure, yes.  I seem to recall Progress having a spectacular failure or two as well.  I'd guess that they are pretty similar reliability, but that's a gut feeling.

Also, it's a little disingenuous to say "capsule" and not include the launch system.  Soyuz obviously had LOM event recently, although it was of course thankfully not a LOC.  Are you counting that in your reliability consideration?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1303353733397479424

The annual report of Roscosmos states that NASA will not buy a seat in #SoyuzMS18, scheduled for April 2021. The negotiations regarding the seat in Soyuz-MS17 with launch date in October 2020 are underway, the terms of the contract are being discussed.

https://ria.ru/20200908/nasa-1576944821.html

[SMS]

cross post:

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1303406716751618050