SpaceX Falcon 9 : SAOCOM 1B : Cape Canaveral : August 30, 2020 (23:19 UTC)

[ChrisC]

Have there been any renderings / maps showing the expected visibility of this launch?  I've been following this thread ever since this mission moved to the Eastern Range and don't recall seeing any.  Obviously the first stage will be the most visible and most interesting to watch at staging.  How far south will people be able to see it?  Miami?

Thanks to Raul's map, I know that the impact zone for the first stage, if none of the RTLS activity works, is about 80 miles east of Miami.  Of course that implies that, nominally, the first stage will MECO much farther north, say maybe east of Vero Beach?  If it's a nominal RTLS operation, how far south should people be able to see the boostback burn?

Flight Club has some preliminary guesses. And Declan is pretty good at this stuff in the past.

Thanks!  So, I took this advice and ran with it, collecting some links and guidance for others here who don't know how to use FlightClub.io (I did not):

FlightClub.io's trajectory prediction is here:
https://flightclub.io/result/3d?code=SC1B
Controls:
- mouse wheel: zoom in; actually it's "forward" in whatever direction your are pointing, which initially is straight down!
- click and drag to MOVE your view point left/right/up/down over view; initially that's N/S/E/W
- control-click and drag to change viewing AIM direction
If you get screwed up like I did several times, just reload the browser window.

There's also this, but I don't think it can be used for getting a view from the ground:
https://flightclub.io/earth?launches=1359
I did learn to change the reference frame to that best for viewing launches.

All whole bunch of simulated telemetry / parameters:
https://flightclub.io/result/2d?code=SC1B
(from a reply to this tweet: twitter.com/smvllstvrs/status/1298998491406974976 )

I dug through his twitter feed for relevant posts:
(all Twitter links here are intentionally suppressing the autoembed to keep this post compact)

View from downtown Jacksonville:
twitter.com/flightclubio/status/1298284501827633152

four Florida launch trajectories, one going way off:
twitter.com/flightclubio/status/1282702364189712386

Instantaneous Impact Points (IIPs) if the launch goes pear shaped:
twitter.com/flightclubio/status/1182056587290038273

Viewing notes after collecting all this:
- From the Cape to Vero Beach or even Port Saint Lucie, the staging event will basically appear to be straight overhead (the average Joe treats anything from 70 to 90 degrees as "straight up")
- Farther south, from West Palm Beach to Miami, you'll still get a great view.  The farther south of WPB you are, the more to the "left" you will be looking for the rocket to first appear over the horizon, since the coast curves west.  But at staging it will be really high up and pretty much aligned with the beach.
- If you are all the way down at the southern end of the peninsula, e.g. Miami or, you will obviously face north along the coast, but the rocket will first appear a little to the west so point yourself a little inland.

The attached screenshot shows the view looking EAST across the Florida peninsula, with the Cape at left (northern) edge and Miami at right (southern) edge, to provide general context of the trajectory, useful for the non-nerds that I will be hyping this to.

More links, guidance and corrections are appreciated!  If quoting this post, please trim your quote down to just the part you are commenting on.

(Why yes, I did have something else I was going to spend the past hour doing.  Darn it.)

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

ULA stated minimum recycle time for next launch attempt is 7 days. NET 5 Sept.

So earliest for SAOCOM 1B would be 6 Sept.

[kdhilliard]

Here's the layout of pads at KSC and CCAFS, showing why the Starlink v1.0 L11 mission will be allowed to launch to the northeast from LC-39A, but SAOCOM-1B can't launch to the south-southeast from LC-40 as it would overfly NROL-44 at LC-37B.

Edited to add distances and bearings:
LC-40 is 3.65 km (2.25 mi) NNW (336°) of SLC-37B.
LC-39A is 9.40 km (5.85 mi) NNW (340°) of SLC-37B.
Since the issue is more about direction (and thus overflight) than distance, shifting SAOCOM-1B to LC-39A won't help.

The Google Maps imagery is a bit more than three years old as it predates LZ-2 construction and still shows active pos-AMOS-6 repair work at LC-40.

[GWR64]

Here's the layout of pads at KSC and CCAFS, showing why the Starlink v1.0 L11 mission will be allowed to launch to the northeast from LC-39A, but SAOCOM-1B can't launch to the south-southeast from LC-40 as it would overfly NROL-44 at LC-37B.

Edit: Fixed cardinal directions.

So the Falcon launch has to wait until the Delta-IV Heavy with the billion-dollar satellite is lauched.
This can take a while.
My opinion: a strange idea from SpaceX to launch like this

Last polar launch in Florida was from LC-17B, a different situation. 1969 Delta-E with ESSA-9.

[Elthiryel]

Currently, with single stick Delta retired, Delta launches from SLC-37B are super rare and after this one flies, only two more are scheduled, one for 2022 and one for 2024. They are really unlucky that their first polar launch from Florida coincides with a Delta launch and not only a Delta launch, but the one with significant delays.

[KTigress]

Here's the layout of pads at KSC and CCAFS, showing why the Starlink v1.0 L11 mission will be allowed to launch to the northeast from LC-39A, but SAOCOM-1B can't launch to the south-southeast from LC-40 as it would overfly NROL-44 at LC-37B.

Edit: Fixed cardinal directions.

So the Falcon launch has to wait until the Delta-IV Heavy with the billion-dollar satellite is lauched.
This can take a while.
My opinion: a strange idea from SpaceX to launch like this

Last polar launch in Florida was from LC-17B, a different situation. 1969 Delta-E with ESSA-9.

I guess they wanted to move all the operations to Cape Canaveral and then didn’t have many options. It’s also been really bad timing.

[klod]

Is the any chances for rebuilding for instance Launch Complex 46? This LC may cover all need for polar launches SpaceX.

[Alexphysics]

LC-46 is already taken by Blue Origin. Once ULA stops flying Delta, 37B will abandoned and this won't be a problem anymore.

[klod]

Blue Origin has leased the launch site 36 not 46. But still LC 40/39 in south direction launches will pass through lots of LSs, except 46.

[spacenut]

Why can't SpaceX launch tomorrow while Delta is repaired?  Are they afraid that F9 will get off course and crash into Delta IV? 

A car engine not used for a long time can cause problems.  Delta IV is not used very often, so it must cause problems. 

I was hoping to see two F9 launches in one day.

[lucas071200]

L-1 Weather Forecast

Gesendet von meinem LM-G810 mit Tapatalk

[sferrin]

So will the ULA scrub bump the two SpaceX launches as well?

[Lee Jay]

Why can't SpaceX launch tomorrow while Delta is repaired?  Are they afraid that F9 will get off course and crash into Delta IV?

Because if something goes wrong, it could crash down onto Delta and, more importantly, it's secret and potentially billion-dollar payload.

A car engine not used for a long time can cause problems.  Delta IV is not used very often, so it must cause problems.

Delta IV is expendable.  Every one is brand new.

However, the same is not true of the GSE (Ground Support Equipment).

[gongora]

So will the ULA scrub bump the two SpaceX launches as well?

It shouldn't affect the Starlink launch

[sferrin]

So will the ULA scrub bump the two SpaceX launches as well?

It shouldn't affect the Starlink launch

I assume that while all are launched from the Cape, the Starlink pad is further away from ULA than the SOCOM pad?

[gongora]

So will the ULA scrub bump the two SpaceX launches as well?

It shouldn't affect the Starlink launch

I assume that while all are launched from the Cape, the Starlink pad is further away from ULA than the SOCOM pad?

The SAOCOM pad is next to the Delta IV pad (north of it), and that mission will be heading in a southerly direction.  The Starlink mission is flying from three pads away to the north.

[Ronpur50]

I am a bit confused by the ground track that would put this SpaceX launch over Delta Heavy. A track like that would put it over West Palm Beach as well as the Bahamas. I thought it was flying out to the southwest over the ocean and then turning south after it cleared the coast of Florida and Bahama. Is there a map that shows the path? Or is this just speculation.

[Alexphysics]

I am a bit confused by the ground track that would put this SpaceX launch over Delta Heavy. A track like that would put it over West Palm Beach as well as the Bahamas. I thought it was flying out to the southwest over the ocean and then turning south after it cleared the coast of Florida and Bahama. Is there a map that shows the path? Or is this just speculation.

Some undetermined number of comments above there's a track of that given the hazard areas plubished by the FAA and Eastern Range

[Ronpur50]

I am a bit confused by the ground track that would put this SpaceX launch over Delta Heavy. A track like that would put it over West Palm Beach as well as the Bahamas. I thought it was flying out to the southwest over the ocean and then turning south after it cleared the coast of Florida and Bahama. Is there a map that shows the path? Or is this just speculation.

Some undetermined number of comments above there's a track of that given the hazard areas plubished by the FAA and Eastern Range

I have been reading those comments, but I can not find any official word yet from SpaceX of a delay. And no official ground track that shows this flight path. My understanding was the dogleg happens with stage two. So stage one would not have to fly that close to the coast, which it what an over flight of ULA would do.

[spacenut]

Yes, the ground support equipment is what I was referring to.  Not used very much, so problems can arise.