Author Topic: ...and Iran?  (Read 14469 times)

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12846
  • Braga - Portugal
    • Em Órbita
  • Liked: 578
  • Likes Given: 368
...and Iran?
« on: 10/08/2006 11:34 am »
Well, the last months many things have been said about the iranian nuclear program. If they get the bomb (and they will get it!) they must have a launcg vehicle for it (and they have it). Last year we heard a lot about a possible iranian orbital launch from Emamshahr, Dash-E-Kabir. The launch eventualy was delayed (I don't think it was canceled...) and the Sinah-1 sat was launched by a 11K65M Kosmos-3M from GIK-1 Plesetsk on October 27th 2005.

So, can we expect a iranian orbital launch soon (maybe in 2007)? Or do you think that they will wait to see what happnes with all this nuclear problem (program)?


Offline Spirit

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 180
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #1 on: 10/08/2006 12:21 pm »
Wow, the Iranians are far from building an orbital launcher. They can barely reach Israel with their modified Shehab-3 missiles. They need to develop an upper stage, but for that they will need more powerful first stage, that they don't have. My prediction is at least 2009 if they don't get destroyed by USA and allies.
Regards,
Atanas

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12846
  • Braga - Portugal
    • Em Órbita
  • Liked: 578
  • Likes Given: 368
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #2 on: 10/08/2006 01:21 pm »
Quote
Spirit - 8/10/2006  7:04 AM

Wow, the Iranians are far from building an orbital launcher. They can barely reach Israel with their modified Shehab-3 missiles. They need to develop an upper stage, but for that they will need more powerful first stage, that they don't have. My prediction is at least 2009 if they don't get destroyed by USA and allies.


Hummm, well they have developed the Shahab-4 derived from the R-12. The Shahab-4 was said to be the base for the iranian orbital launch vheicle, but the project was abandoned. Later some sources stated that a stretched version of the Shahab-3 would be the basis of a space launcher that had it's first orbital atempt planned for 2005.

- http://www.spacetoday.org/Satellites/Iran/IranianSat.html
- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3370143.stm
- http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,61794,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_5
- http://www.spacedaily.com/news/microsat-04p.html

The 'fear' of an american intervention made that Russia proposed to launch the first iranian satellite... :o

Offline Spirit

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 180
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #3 on: 10/08/2006 01:26 pm »
The upgraded Shahab-3 has capacity of 700 kg. So in order to launch a satellite, the upper stage and the satellite should not exceed 700 kg combined! Well, they won't be able to laucnh something heavier than 70 kg.
Regards,
Atanas

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12846
  • Braga - Portugal
    • Em Órbita
  • Liked: 578
  • Likes Given: 368
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #4 on: 10/08/2006 01:39 pm »
Quote
Spirit - 8/10/2006  8:09 AM

The upgraded Shahab-3 has capacity of 700 kg. So in order to launch a satellite, the upper stage and the satellite should not exceed 700 kg combined! Well, they won't be able to laucnh something heavier than 70 kg.

Yeap! You're right! Notice that the launch mass of the Sinah-1 satellite was 20 kg.

Offline Spirit

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 180
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #5 on: 10/08/2006 02:04 pm »
Regards,
Atanas

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12846
  • Braga - Portugal
    • Em Órbita
  • Liked: 578
  • Likes Given: 368
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #6 on: 10/08/2006 02:42 pm »
In the next times we can expect the launch of the Zoreh communications satellite by a 8K82K Proton-K russian launch vehicle and the launch of the Mesbah satellite (maybe by another 11K65M Kosmos-3M). For more info about the Mesbah see http://www.itrc.ac.ir/ist2005/Keynote/K5/MESBAH_Conf.pdf

At some point the Mesbah sat was going to be launched toghether with Sinah-1, but the launch was delayed. See also http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=24912# and http://www.iran-daily.com/1384/2482/html/index.htm .

Offline Danderman

  • Extreme Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9654
  • Liked: 380
  • Likes Given: 465
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #7 on: 10/08/2006 11:43 pm »
Quote
Hummm, well they have developed the Shahab-4 derived from the R-12. The Shahab-4 was said to be the base for the iranian orbital launch vheicle, but the project was abandoned. Later some sources stated that a stretched version of the Shahab-3 would be the basis of a space launcher that had it's first orbital atempt planned for 2005.

Really? The Shahab-4 is based on the R-12? Does it actually exist?

Offline Satori

  • Moderator
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12846
  • Braga - Portugal
    • Em Órbita
  • Liked: 578
  • Likes Given: 368
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #8 on: 10/09/2006 12:04 am »
Quote
Danderman - 8/10/2006  6:26 PM

Really? The Shahab-4 is based on the R-12? Does it actually exist?

Well, see http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/shahab-4.htm

Offline MartianBase

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 209
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
RE: ...and Iran?
« Reply #9 on: 10/09/2006 03:35 am »
It's hard to tell what's real from Iran and what isn't - in August they claimed to have a new submarine missile but they test was bogus because of the smoke signature it was determined they stole an internet clip of a test from a foreign country and released it as a propaganda news report. The reason Tehran has a missile in the first place is because they got their hands on Korea's No-Dong missile technology, N.Koreans will have an IRBM long berfore Iran builds a real launcher. The bad news on Iran is they seem to be getting a nuclear program up and running, a war on three fronts would be difficult for the USA and any of the US troops in Iraq would be a prime target for their current missiles.

Offline meiza

  • Expert
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3068
  • Where Be Dragons
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #10 on: 10/09/2006 11:42 am »
Somewhat related, North Korea just did an underground nuclear test, 15 kilotons.

Offline MartianBase

  • Member
  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 209
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #11 on: 10/11/2006 11:18 am »
I don't think it was as big as 15 kilotons

U.S. Geological Survey records 4.2 magnitude
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/09/asia/AS_GEN_Koreas_Nuclear_Quake.php
Anyway the N.Korean missile program isn't advanced enough to carry a warhead yet

Who knows maybe Iran will be the next October surprise

Offline TyMoore

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 482
  • Eureka, CA, USA
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #12 on: 10/11/2006 06:37 pm »
I heard it was around 0.5 kilotons, which puts it suspiciusly in the realm of either a conventional blast (to make us think they have a working weapon in order to puff themselves up a bit,) or it was a nuclear fizzle (which indicates that their design is too crude to be used as a weapon yet.) Either way, they do not have anything small enough to be deliverable by their Taepo Dong or Nodong IRBM.

Offline Avron

  • Canadian Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4926
  • Liked: 151
  • Likes Given: 157
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #13 on: 10/11/2006 08:37 pm »
Quote
TyMoore - 11/10/2006  2:20 PM

I heard it was around 0.5 kilotons, which puts it suspiciusly in the realm of either a conventional blast (to make us think they have a working weapon in order to puff themselves up a bit,) or it was a nuclear fizzle (which indicates that their design is too crude to be used as a weapon yet.) Either way, they do not have anything small enough to be deliverable by their Taepo Dong or Nodong IRBM.


Hummm... nice play if it is one.. something the US would not say no... as its more money for CIA etc... just like the cold war... they know the truth but to confirm it would be to remove then need for themselves (CIA)...

Offline dbhyslop

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 193
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #14 on: 10/11/2006 09:02 pm »
I don't know the details of their shaft; but I imagine it would be quite a bit of trouble to assemble 100,000 lbs of TNT at the bottom of it.  If we believe a "trace" weapon is within their reach, I think we should assume they built one and it worked as advertised.

Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3356
  • Liked: 488
  • Likes Given: 846
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #15 on: 10/12/2006 12:23 am »
Quote
dbhyslop - 11/10/2006  1:45 PM

I don't know the details of their shaft; but I imagine it would be quite a bit of trouble to assemble 100,000 lbs of TNT at the bottom of it.  If we believe a "trace" weapon is within their reach, I think we should assume they built one and it worked as advertised.

Wouldn't 0.5 KT be closer to 1 million lbs of TNT ?

Offline MKremer

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3931
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 798
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #16 on: 10/12/2006 02:36 am »
No, KT is a measure of the equivalent explosive mass of TNT. So, 0.5KT would be equal to 1000lb of TNT (not that large an amount).


Offline hop

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3356
  • Liked: 488
  • Likes Given: 846
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #17 on: 10/12/2006 03:33 am »
Quote
MKremer - 11/10/2006  7:19 PM

No, KT is a measure of the equivalent explosive mass of TNT. So, 0.5KT would be equal to 1000lb of TNT (not that large an amount).

Huh ?
KT = kiloton = thousand tons TNT equiv.


Offline MKremer

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3931
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 798
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #18 on: 10/12/2006 04:29 am »
Yup, you're correct in the inital post - forgot about the decimal point. :)  1KT = 1000*2000 lb = 2,000,000 lb
so 0.5KT = 1,000,000 lb TNT

Still, that's considered in TNT explosive weights, and modern explosive chemistry has compounds that have the same explosive force but mass much less than actual TNT. So 0.5KT still doesn't take *that* much mass/volume for modern conventional explosives.

That's assuming, of course, they were trying for a total 'fake-out', which doesn't seem to be the case. But, considering both tests are now being regarded as fizzles, and assuming they were using brute-force compression/critical mass methods, somewhere around 500tons or much more of TNT-equivalent explosives shouldn't be too far beyond assumption.

Offline TyMoore

  • Veteran
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 482
  • Eureka, CA, USA
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: ...and Iran?
« Reply #19 on: 10/12/2006 06:18 am »
Even the most modern explosive compounds such as PETN, or RDX do not deliver more than a few times the explosive power of good ol' TNT, so the TNT equivalent is still a devently good measure of explosive power especially where nuclear explosives are concerned. It would take substantial engineering to carve out a cavity at the bottom of 10 ft diameter shaft big enough to emplace 300 tons of ammonium nitrate and sprinkle it with fuel oil. Still it could be done, especially if they think a 'fake' out would be politically worth it. My bottom dollar bet though says they tried a real nuke test, and it fizzled. If it fizzled, then there is a good chance that this was not an enriched uranium gun type bomb--which is an extremely inefficient (fissile material wise) but pretty reliable design, but an attempt at a real, honest to god implosion device. If that's the case, then their sophistication may be bit more than most folks give them credit for. If in the following weeks or months they test another one and it is 10-20 kt, then they may have something that is air deliverable, or road portable, but probably too heavy for their ballistic missiles.  And it will be many, many years before they develop a real strategic missile force able to project credible force across the globe. Still, it's a bit alarming...

Tags: