SpaceX & Blue Origin VS Lockheed, Boeing, Northrop, Airbus, MHI,...

[rockets4life97]

Airbus and Arianespace would be my guess for the next reusable launcher. Europe will keep its launch ability and the commercial market has been important funding center. They will be late to the party, but they will eventually get there.

The Chinese will IMO get a reusable (or semi-reusable) launcher before Europe.

Right. I wasn't considering them old space per the OP.

[Ronsmytheiii]

I would say that if successful, Boeings XS-1 launch vehicle shows potential to redefine how they do launch. With a reusable first stage and low turnaround time it has the potential to dominate the small launch sector. Don't know how easily it scaled up in size, but shows that they do have the ability to innovate and to operate with agility.

[envy887]

ULA should try to implement engine recovery on Vulcan as early as possible. Might keep Vulcan competitive with F9/FH and New Glenn. Since the engines are the biggest expense on a booster, that might be good enough to keep them in the game.

Even without engine reuse, Vulcan looks to be pretty competitive with FH for most missions, at least with currently stated prices for both. Slightly cheaper for a very narrow sliver of the market, and only a bit pricier for most of the remainder (with capabilities that can probably make up the difference). Vulcan-SMART should be an easy winner for most contracts against FH. Still not nearly good enough for the scenario this thread presents though (BFR hitting all its cost/performance/schedule claims)

Vulcan's price is still pretty vague, less than $100 million but it's not clear how much less. SMART saves a pair of $8 million engines, but might cost $6 million SRB, a $10 million dollar delta or total cost right around FH. And it's not clear what this buys, since ULA hasn't published performance for the base Vulcan.

The problem is that the FH market is pretty small in terms of raw launch numbers. F9 ate Atlas 401's lunch on the smaller launches. Can ULA survive with mostly large launches and dual manifests?

[meekGee]

ULA should try to implement engine recovery on Vulcan as early as possible. Might keep Vulcan competitive with F9/FH and New Glenn. Since the engines are the biggest expense on a booster, that might be good enough to keep them in the game.

The engines are the biggest expense only when compared to a throw-away airframe...

When you're competing against a rocket whose only expense if fuel, both engines and airframe are prohibitively expensive.

[Stellvia]

The Chinese will IMO get a reusable (or semi-reusable) launcher before Europe.

Before the European aerospace majors, yes. Before European NewSpace, I'm not so sure.

Orbex (UK) are touting their #REFLIGHT reusability technology on Twitter, and have some kind of unveiling event scheduled for 7th Feb.

https://twitter.com/orbexspace/status/1082363662025789441

[Lar]

The latest tiny startup will always be there to throw doubt but their influence if any is years out.

[Lars-J]

The Chinese will IMO get a reusable (or semi-reusable) launcher before Europe.

Before the European aerospace majors, yes. Before European NewSpace, I'm not so sure.

Orbex (UK) are touting their #REFLIGHT reusability technology on Twitter, and have some kind of unveiling event scheduled for 7th Feb.

European Newspace? That's a thing?? I'd love to see it, but they should show some progress to be labeled that, IMO.

[Cherokee43v6]

Remember, big aerospace got to be big aerospace by starting out as small aerospace and then over the years merging with other small aerospace companies or buying them outright.

This will continue as big aerospace sees opportunities to do so.  The prime example currently being Northrop-Grumman's acquisition of OrbitalATK who had recently purchased Sierra Nevada Corporation (Dreamchaser).

Are they likely to be able to acquire the likes of SpaceX or Blue Origin who have deep pocketed founders handing out the KoolAid?  That is going to be dependent on what those folks believe once their companies have reached the goals they have set for them.

[zhangmdev]

Until the new space companies make strides into the market of those big ticket items, i.e. large comm sats, military and science spacecraft/payloads, I think the position of the old space is safe. The launch service market is not valuable enough to warrant big investments. The prospected Mars base, Lunar base, space tourism, LEO constellation etc is still too far away. They are waiting the mania of big reusable rockets to peter out. If there is certainty of big enough money in it, won't be too late to pile in. This business takes many years from a plan, to signing a contract to fruitation, if ever.

[TrevorMonty]

This will continue as big aerospace sees opportunities to do so.  The prime example currently being Northrop-Grumman's acquisition of OrbitalATK who had recently purchased Sierra Nevada Corporation (Dreamchaser).

Unless I missed this major take over, SNC are still privately owned according to their website. They grew and keep growing by buying smaller companies.

Orbital did merge with ATK a couple years ago before recent purchase by NG.

[TrevorMonty]

Until the new space companies make strides into the market of those big ticket items, i.e. large comm sats, military and science spacecraft/payloads, I think the position of the old space is safe. The launch service market is not valuable enough to warrant big investments. The prospected Mars base, Lunar base, space tourism, LEO constellation etc is still too far away. They are waiting the mania of big reusable rockets to peter out. If there is certainty of big enough money in it, won't be too late to pile in. This business takes many years from a plan, to signing a contract to fruitation, if ever.

With lunar and Mars bases, launch is only part of transport chain. LEO too these bases and return is just as important as earth to LEO. I'd expect the big companies go after this market first, they are all experts in developing and operating deep space vehicles. ULA are already working towards this with ACES US, which can be a OTV and basis for a lander.

[Stellvia]

European Newspace? That's a thing?? I'd love to see it, but they should show some progress to be labeled that, IMO.

SSTL pioneered the field of commercial small satellites. NewSpace isn't just about launch.

The latest tiny startup will always be there to throw doubt but their influence if any is years out.

Both Orbex and LinkSpace (the Chinese firm most visibly working on reusability) are small startup companies. Orbex is projecting first orbital launch in 2021. I would not be prepared to wager on whether they or LinkSpace will be first to successfully make it to orbit and recover the boost stage.

[Kryten]

Both Orbex and LinkSpace (the Chinese firm most visibly working on reusability) are small startup companies. Orbex is projecting first orbital launch in 2021. I would not be prepared to wager on whether they or LinkSpace will be first to successfully make it to orbit and recover the boost stage.

LinkSpace have a lot more tangible progress so far, Orbex mostly just make coy teasers.

[Steven Pietrobon]

ULA has been for sale for ages and no one wants it.

It has? That's news to me. If so, why did they turn down the offer from Aerojet Rocketdyne?

https://spacenews.com/aerojet-makes-2-billion-offer-for-united-launch-alliance-sources/

[Tywin]

With the recent fusion of Raytheon, and United Technologies, the aerospace companies continue more concentrate...(before Harris and L3 Technologies, Northrop -Orbital Atk, etc...)

https://futureofaerospacedefense.com/?gclid=Cj0KCQjwi43oBRDBARIsAExSRQG79k9W8NTpL9MhWJ16FuHLCNz1bHIwzOhpFmR5DtrorxhKHuFOUY0aAhzWEALw_wcB

I image, how go to change this sector in allies and fusions, when the Starship/BFR and the New Armstrong triumphs....

Will see...

[jjyach]

Merger of Raytheon and UT was simply to not let either company get swallowed up by Boeing/LM/NG.  It's actually a very interesting move to me as those companies have minimal overlap.

[spacenut]

LEO constellations are now being installed.  They will require a lot of smaller launchers (F9) or one big one (Starship).

Lunar activity, orbital lunar stations, lunar orbital communications, moon landings, a moon base.  All are to start within 5 years.  Two ways to do it, lots of smaller launchers using distributed method, or one large one (SLS and Starship). 

Mars with Starship is within 5, not more than 10 years. 

None of this is too far away.  It is beginning to happen now.  With Starship, SLS, and New Glenn coming on line within 2-3 years, smaller launchers will not get the business.  Starship and New Glenn might get all the business, unless ULA develops ACES. 

 

[russianhalo117]

Merger of Raytheon and UT was simply to not let either company get swallowed up by Boeing/LM/NG.  It's actually a very interesting move to me as those companies have minimal overlap.

And MAXAR Technologies has been making itself merger and acquisition ready and MDA unit personnel have indicated that a follow on merger is expected and there parent company MAXAR Technologies has been watching the RT merger like a hawk as has SNC.

[jjyach]

Merger of Raytheon and UT was simply to not let either company get swallowed up by Boeing/LM/NG.  It's actually a very interesting move to me as those companies have minimal overlap.

And MAXAR Technologies has been making itself merger and acquisition ready and MDA unit personnel have indicated that a follow on merger is expected and there parent company MAXAR Technologies has been watching the RT merger like a hawk as has SNC.

Very interesting.  Another I know of locally, Ball Aerospace has actively rebuffed some merger talks.  And despite SNC being right down the road from me, I don't get to hear much from them, besides from their talent recruiters.

[Robotbeat]

Good. I really like Ball Aerospace for some reason. Guess I like their Mason Jars, too.