Author Topic: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL  (Read 5250 times)

Online Comga

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SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« on: 01/11/2019 06:21 pm »
Moving a discussion from an inappropriate thread

Reminds me of the DC-X days with better coverage.

Thanks everyone!!

The DC-X was amazing.   It's surprising and disappointing that no one continued that line of design and thinking until Elon came along.

DC-X, Armadillo, Masten, SpaceX, Blue Origin,...

We could do a 3 or 4 variable plot of landed mass, max altitude, and number of reflights, or most reflights per vehicle, but it would need log scales to keep SpaceX from squishing the others against the small value edges.

I was also an avid follower of the DC-X flights.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #1 on: 01/11/2019 10:29 pm »
If you include flights per vehicle, you will need a log scale just for Xombie.
I tried it at home

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #2 on: 01/12/2019 07:49 am »
This was tweeted just a few hours ago. DC-X has had a lasting influence, but of course was not the first.

https://twitter.com/jamesncantrell/status/1083918433622749185

Quote
It's a common misconception that SpaceX conceived of the vertically landing rocket. While quite true that they perfected it, early efforts such as DCX preceded SpaceX. Many @vectorspacesys personnel worked on DCX & SpaceX.  Nice summary by @curiousdroid



Masten arenít mentioned in the video but deserve particular credit. Not least for influencing Elon/SpaceX when they realised parachute booster recover wasnít going to work. Of course Blue Origin were also working on VTVL before SpaceX. But no question that SpaceX have taken it way beyond anyone else.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2019 08:01 am by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline john smith 19

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #3 on: 01/12/2019 12:16 pm »
This was tweeted just a few hours ago. DC-X has had a lasting influence, but of course was not the first.

https://twitter.com/jamesncantrell/status/1083918433622749185

Quote
It's a common misconception that SpaceX conceived of the vertically landing rocket. While quite true that they perfected it, early efforts such as DCX preceded SpaceX. Many @vectorspacesys personnel worked on DCX & SpaceX.  Nice summary by @curiousdroid

Masten arenít mentioned in the video but deserve particular credit. Not least for influencing Elon/SpaceX when they realised parachute booster recover wasnít going to work. Of course Blue Origin were also working on VTVL before SpaceX. But no question that SpaceX have taken it way beyond anyone else.
Working semi reusable rocket delivery system in the case of F9
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Online Llian Rhydderch

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #4 on: 01/12/2019 01:41 pm »
Agree with Jim Cantrell:  SpaceX perfected vertical landing rockets.

But more importantly, we need to get our heads out of the technology-only sphere and think about technology development and "perfection" of it in a broader economic context.

SpaceX made the choice, the standard entrepreneurial choice, to take the "state of the world" (SOW) as it existed, and, at risk, apply capital and other resources to develop a whole series of technologies to innovate, build new tech, apply old tech, and generally stack up a number of things to make the "state of the world" be something else.  That is standard entrepreneurial theory, and action.  In this particular case, they did the several years of work, and many iterations of tech development, that (now) make landing of vertically-launched orbital booster rockets a regular and robust occurrence.  SOW2 (today) is definitely not the SOW1 we had in 2007.

They did this with private capital, at risk.  They did not merely use the OldSpace technique of sucking off the government teat to ask for $$$ to develop some particular government approved (and meta designed by gvmt) spaceflight technology.

So, yeah, SpaceX perfected this tech.  But thinking in terms of technology perfection in exclusively technical and engineering terms, as we engineers often tend to do, misses a lot of understanding.  Entrepreneurial action is mostly about human action, and choice being made while considering all benefits and all costs; i.e., it is economic.
 
« Last Edit: 01/12/2019 01:43 pm by Llian Rhydderch »
Re arguments from authority on NSF:  "no one is exempt from error, and errors of authority are usually the worst kind.  Taking your word for things without question is no different than a bracket design not being tested because the designer was an old hand."
"You would actually save yourself time and effort if you were to use evidence and logic to make your points instead of wrapping yourself in the royal mantle of authority.  The approach only works on sheep, not inquisitive, intelligent people."

Online AC in NC

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #5 on: 01/12/2019 03:34 pm »
Entrepreneurial action is mostly about human action, and choice being made while considering all benefits and all costs; i.e., it is economic.

The entire post was very good but I want to add one point which I think is underappreciated and reinforces exactly what you are saying.  Economics is fundamentally a "social science".

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #6 on: 01/12/2019 06:53 pm »
Entrepreneurial action is mostly about human action, and choice being made while considering all benefits and all costs; i.e., it is economic.

The entire post was very good but I want to add one point which I think is underappreciated and reinforces exactly what you are saying.  Economics is fundamentally a "social science".
These are profound points. Private enterpreneural action is where a lot of progress comes from. Built on predecessors and their success, to be sure, but watching SpaceX go is exhilarating. Even more exciting, their rate of change may be about to make a step change of a massive sort.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Luc

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #7 on: 02/04/2019 11:31 pm »
Entrepreneurial action is mostly about human action, and choice being made while considering all benefits and all costs; i.e., it is economic.

The entire post was very good but I want to add one point which I think is underappreciated and reinforces exactly what you are saying.  Economics is fundamentally a "social science".

The statement that "Economics is fundamentally a social science" is exactly wrong at the macro level. Economics is a hard science at that level and outcomes are entirely predictable using the same math as particle physics.  At the micro level, your point is well taken, because human beings do not always act rationally at the individual level, nor do they have perfect information; unfortunately your point has been misused politically which has resulted in certain politicians being elected based upon "economic policies," and certain "economists" winning Nobel Prizes while lacking a fundamental understanding of basic economics.

Think of it like trying to predict the exact position and behavior of an individual subatomic particle.  This is impossible, but that in no way invalidates the science itself or its usefulness in predicting "behavior" at the macro level.

Offline Lars-J

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #8 on: 02/05/2019 01:23 am »
The statement that "Economics is fundamentally a social science" is exactly wrong at the macro level. Economics is a hard science at that level and outcomes are entirely predictable using the same math as particle physics.

No, that is false. Unless you have a very different definition of 'hard science' than what physicists would use.

At the micro level, your point is well taken, because human beings do not always act rationally at the individual level, nor do they have perfect information;

And human beings act rationally at the macro level?  ;D  No. There is an element of predictability, yes, but since macro human behavior is not predictable, therefore macro economics can never be. And perfect information is a pipe dream, as the last decade has shown. The more information is available, the more people seek information based on confirmation bias.

Think of it like trying to predict the exact position and behavior of an individual subatomic particle.  This is impossible, but that in no way invalidates the science itself or its usefulness in predicting "behavior" at the macro level.

This is a false equivalence argument. Physics has some degree of unpredictability, economics has it as well, therefore they are just as unpredictable. No.

It's ok to not be a hard science. It really is. Not everything can be, and that's fine.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #9 on: 02/05/2019 01:52 am »
thread necromancy for this?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Ludus

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #10 on: 02/13/2019 04:22 pm »
Entrepreneurial action is mostly about human action, and choice being made while considering all benefits and all costs; i.e., it is economic.

The entire post was very good but I want to add one point which I think is underappreciated and reinforces exactly what you are saying.  Economics is fundamentally a "social science".
These are profound points. Private enterpreneural action is where a lot of progress comes from. Built on predecessors and their success, to be sure, but watching SpaceX go is exhilarating. Even more exciting, their rate of change may be about to make a step change of a massive sort.

I always had the sense that those old SciFi worlds where brilliant driven inventor/entrepreneurs opened up a new frontier in Space, taking risks and making rapid progress, were actually possible alternative realities that weíd just missed by chance to end up in a timeline with Space bogged down in bureaucratic politics and caution. Thereís a sense of that possibility again. A little of it is just the aesthetic of a serious polished stainless steel rocket that lands on its fin/legs and is a general purpose spaceship. Those old writers and artists donít seem so delusional anymore.
« Last Edit: 02/13/2019 04:24 pm by Ludus »

Offline Oersted

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #11 on: 02/13/2019 08:07 pm »
Entrepreneurial action is mostly about human action, and choice being made while considering all benefits and all costs; i.e., it is economic.

The entire post was very good but I want to add one point which I think is underappreciated and reinforces exactly what you are saying.  Economics is fundamentally a "social science".

You could go even further and say that economics is fundamentally a sub-category of psychology and it wouldn't be totally wrong.

Offline Luc

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #12 on: 02/19/2019 01:46 pm »
The EXACT same equations are used to predict economic outcomes. If that is not equivalent, I canít imagine what your looking for.

Offline Hominans Kosmos

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #13 on: 02/20/2019 11:56 pm »
The EXACT same equations are used to predict economic outcomes. If that is not equivalent, I canít imagine what your looking for.

I don't know what planet has "perfectly scientific macroeconomics" all of this "theory" is embedded in geopolitics. Sure you can have models that you can pick example cases for. But seriously, "economic forces predict futures?". For the borg and ants maybe. Not so for complex social animals with political whims stirred up by irrational actors.

Quote
Economics (/ɛkəˈnɒmɪks, iːkə-/)[1][2][3] is the social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.[4]

Quote
Social science is a category of academic disciplines, concerned with society and the relationships among individuals within a society.
 

Quote
Macroeconomics (from the Greek prefix makro- meaning "large" + economics) is a branch of economics dealing with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole.

Quote
An economy (from Greek οίκος Ė "household" and νέμoμαι Ė "manage") is an area of the production, distribution, or trade,[1] and consumption of goods and services by different agents. Understood in its broadest sense, 'The economy is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with the production, use, and management of resources'.[2] Economic agents can be individuals, businesses, organizations, or governments. Economic transactions occur when two parties agree to the value or price of the transacted good or service,

But yeah, SpaceX has a marked lead in economically feasible, profit-oriented vertical take off and landing transportation vehicles related to modes of travel through space.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2019 12:08 am by Hominans Kosmos »

Offline Luc

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #14 on: 02/22/2019 09:12 pm »
Your arguments are theoretical, and thatís fine. I can only speak to the mathematics and the corresponding real world data. As I have said, the equations are the same, And the predictive value of the equations at the macro level is nearly identical, irrespective of geopolitics. These are simple facts. That is why I assert that economics is a hard science at the macro level. You can rationalize all you like. The simple truth is that the same math has virtually the same predictive value for outcomes, and that your rationalizations cannot explain this away.

Added: as far as I know, that is the very definition of a hard science; my point is that for political reasons, pseudo-economists, camouflage this in order to promote policies that are not actually sound economics.
« Last Edit: 02/22/2019 09:22 pm by Luc »

Offline Lars-J

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #15 on: 02/22/2019 09:36 pm »
Your arguments are theoretical, and thatís fine. I can only speak to the mathematics and the corresponding real world data. As I have said, the equations are the same, And the predictive value of the equations at the macro level is nearly identical, irrespective of geopolitics. These are simple facts. That is why I assert that economics is a hard science at the macro level. You can rationalize all you like. The simple truth is that the same math has virtually the same predictive value for outcomes, and that your rationalizations cannot explain this away.

Added: as far as I know, that is the very definition of a hard science; my point is that for political reasons, pseudo-economists, camouflage this in order to promote policies that are not actually sound economics.

You writing this over and over does not make it so. You state that "the equations are the same" - same for mathematics and macro-economics? What equations?? Can you list even one?

I'm very interested in what those equations would be. And what is the cut off point between economics and macro-economics? And list specific predictions of these macro-economic equations, and their repeated accuracy.

You will not be able to.

Offline Luc

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #16 on: 02/23/2019 04:27 am »
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econophysics
https://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/35/fundamental-equations-in-economics
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50695/1/mpra_
https://www.imsc.res.in/~sitabhra/papers/sinha_chakrabarti_physicsnews_09.pdf
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1702.02763.pdf
https://ideas.repec.org/a/nea/journl/y2017i34p193-201.html
https://qz.com/16207/take-it-from-me-a-real-economist-who-needed-convincing-math-matters/
https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2018/preliminary/paper/FktKeZ8n
https://www.maths.tcd.ie/~coelhor/Transfer_Book.pdf
http://nautil.us/issue/33/attraction/describing-people-as-particles-isnt-always-a-bad-idea
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042815005984
https://aapt.scitation.org/doi/10.1119/1.19110

Here are a dozen references to get you started.

A hard science observes the real world and evaluates theory based upon its ability to accurately model it.
Value driven, pseudo-science, on the other hand is value driven and seeks to bend reality to match the theory, which was in turn developed to promote or support a belief which is deemed to have value in its own right.

Added: Please PM me, if you are genuinely interested in this discussion. I apologize to the thread for wandering. I will not continue this to the point where I need to be reprimanded 😊







« Last Edit: 02/23/2019 04:42 am by Luc »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #17 on: 02/23/2019 05:10 am »
Someone put this thread out of its misery.
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Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX leads in evolution of VTVL
« Reply #18 on: 02/23/2019 03:09 pm »
Yeah.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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