Author Topic: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype  (Read 5313 times)

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #20 on: 01/11/2019 07:23 am »
I'd rather assume that "Elon Must" is just a mispelling and answer in good faith.

-I have still yet to see concrete evidence that SpaceX can save money from recovering boosters.

The real question is suppose we make another single-use rocket that has the same launch capacity as a Falcon 9 in recover mode, how much will that smaller rocket cost?
Introduce a new "lighter model" would be require a lot of expensive engineering effort. It is much cheaper to have a single common model which can launch both light and heavy payloads.

Falcon 9 can do this by recovering the booster at the low end and expending it at the high end. Launching the same rocket at different price points is great! The Atlas V also does this by varying the number of SRBs.

Offline Star One

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Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #21 on: 01/11/2019 10:25 am »
I’d of thought people looking to post on here would be mostly enthusiastic about these developments.

I am as sceptical as the next man at Elon’s timescales but he does get stuff done.

Also getting someone’s name seemingly deliberately wrong is just plain rude.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2019 10:25 am by Star One »

Offline wardy89

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #22 on: 01/11/2019 11:25 am »
I have talked to a fair number of people about SpaceX and Mars and the one thing that comes up more than anything else is that people can't seem to get there head round that SpaceX hasn't been set up to make someone rich. 

At time see seem to live in a world where everything is about making money and your success is measured by the amount of money you make, because of that i think lots of people just struggle to accept that that improving the human races odds of survival is the goal not making shareholders richer and everything up to then is simply helping to pay for that dream.

Online Svetoslav

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #23 on: 01/11/2019 11:40 am »
I'd personally not pay too much attention to the misspelling. Not everyone here is a fluent English speaker, and I'd rather be generous. It took me a long time to write the name "Squyres" correctly. I had the habit to write it as "Squires", because it's close to the English word "squirrel". In this case, I also think it's an innocent mistake - "Musk" is close to the English word "must".

Now, the second criticism - about the cultism. There's a great article on The Space Review by Dwayne Day ( http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3231/1 ). Here's an interesting quote:

" A belief in space settlement shares many characteristics with religion (see “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids,” The Space Review, April 24, 2017). It is largely based upon emotion, although many of its adherents claim that it is based upon logic. In fact, some of the characteristics of this belief system are more akin to a cult. One of the surprising things about doomsday cults is that the failure of doomsday prophecies to occur does not usually destroy the cult and, in fact, can have the opposite effect, reinvigorating the faithful and reinforcing their devotion. This happens in many different ways, but a common one is the belief that something that the cult members did prevented, or more usually delayed, doomsday.

Without taking the analogy too far, one could ask why space settlement as an idea has been around for many decades now, has periodically increased in intensity, has not achieved any of its early key milestones, and yet still has adherents. Maybe that is because space enthusiasm is less about actual accomplishment than entertainment."
« Last Edit: 01/11/2019 11:43 am by Svetoslav »

Offline Star One

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #24 on: 01/11/2019 11:49 am »
I'd personally not pay too much attention to the misspelling. Not everyone here is a fluent English speaker, and I'd rather be generous. It took me a long time to write the name "Squyres" correctly. I had the habit to write it as "Squires", because it's close to the English word "squirrel". In this case, I also think it's an innocent mistake - "Musk" is close to the English word "must".

Now, the second criticism - about the cultism. There's a great article on The Space Review by Dwayne Day ( http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3231/1 ). Here's an interesting quote:

" A belief in space settlement shares many characteristics with religion (see “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids,” The Space Review, April 24, 2017). It is largely based upon emotion, although many of its adherents claim that it is based upon logic. In fact, some of the characteristics of this belief system are more akin to a cult. One of the surprising things about doomsday cults is that the failure of doomsday prophecies to occur does not usually destroy the cult and, in fact, can have the opposite effect, reinvigorating the faithful and reinforcing their devotion. This happens in many different ways, but a common one is the belief that something that the cult members did prevented, or more usually delayed, doomsday.

Without taking the analogy too far, one could ask why space settlement as an idea has been around for many decades now, has periodically increased in intensity, has not achieved any of its early key milestones, and yet still has adherents. Maybe that is because space enthusiasm is less about actual accomplishment than entertainment."

Well it’s going to occur at some point unless you’re a believer in the equally unlikely we are all doomed set of people. Whereas the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #25 on: 01/11/2019 11:54 am »
The beauty of American free enterprise is that anyone who get acquire enough capital can start up his/her own company to compete in the market place. I you think you have a better mouse trap, have at it... I personally am enjoying the current "rocket-wars"... no matter how crazy it seems sometimes...
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
~Rob: Physics instructor, Aviator, Vintage auto racer

Online Svetoslav

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #26 on: 01/11/2019 11:56 am »
Well it’s going to occur at some point unless you’re a believer in the equally unlikely we are all doomed set of people. Whereas the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

"Argument to moderation (Latin: argumentum ad temperantiam)—also known as false equivalence, false compromise, [argument from] middle ground, equidistance fallacy, and the golden mean fallacy[1]—is an informal fallacy which asserts that the truth must be found as a compromise between two opposite positions" :) 

But even though it could be a logical fallacy, I kinda agree with you. We may go to Mars some day, while the technological civilization may also enter a period of decline some time later.

However, I don't think that we're going to Mars any time soon. I've seen many plans falling to dust. That's why I say - I'll believe it when I see it.

I do think that if somebody can do it, it's Musk. Compared to other famous people from the not-so-distant past like O'Neill or Zubrin, Musk isn't the next popularizer or proponent. He's actually building rockets and spacecraft.

Before Mars, however, I'd like to see human spaceflight to LEO. An it's coming after many years of delays.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2019 11:57 am by Svetoslav »

Offline spaceman100

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #27 on: 01/11/2019 11:57 am »


As for complaining about his technical choices, please remember what SpaceX has done already that no one thought was possible, and then if you still think he is wrong I suggest you start your own rocket company and prove him wrong. There is only so much room in this world for armchair quarterbacks...  ::)

What exactly has SpaceX done that hasn't been done before ?

I bet Chen will found a space company and proof his claims, but give him some time to do it !

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #28 on: 01/11/2019 12:21 pm »
...

Now, the second criticism - about the cultism. There's a great article on The Space Review by Dwayne Day ( http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3231/1 ). Here's an interesting quote:

" A belief in space settlement shares many characteristics with religion (see “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids,” The Space Review, April 24, 2017). It is largely based upon emotion, although many of its adherents claim that it is based upon logic. In fact, some of the characteristics of this belief system are more akin to a cult. One of the surprising things about doomsday cults is that the failure of doomsday prophecies to occur does not usually destroy the cult and, in fact, can have the opposite effect, reinvigorating the faithful and reinforcing their devotion. This happens in many different ways, but a common one is the belief that something that the cult members did prevented, or more usually delayed, doomsday.

Without taking the analogy too far, one could ask why space settlement as an idea has been around for many decades now, has periodically increased in intensity, has not achieved any of its early key milestones, and yet still has adherents. Maybe that is because space enthusiasm is less about actual accomplishment than entertainment."
Maybe "Must" was a typo. But the only reason to use the word "cult" is to demean everyone associated with something. It's not a logical argument, it's basically an ad hoc used to dismiss proponents of a position rather than arguing against a position. It's a straw man without even bothering to invent the actual straw man.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2019 12:22 pm by mme »
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

Offline jded

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #29 on: 01/11/2019 12:32 pm »
Without taking the analogy too far, one could ask why space settlement as an idea has been around for many decades now, has periodically increased in intensity, has not achieved any of its early key milestones, and yet still has adherents. Maybe that is because space enthusiasm is less about actual accomplishment than entertainment."

Or maybe because space is still there, and the amount of resources (generaly speaking) outside Earth to amount of resources on Earth is still practically infinity : 1. So the perspective of going there and claiming them is still obvious from "first principles" POV, just still boggled in economical/technical problems. No amount of boggling makes it any less obvious, though.

The thing is, economy was always labor limited. So we always focused on resources in the order of how easily available it is, and there was always more resources on Earth than amount of work available to use them.

This is not a permanent situation. In near future automation will make economy resource-limited. And whoever goes out there first, at the right moment, will take a big chunk of it.

You may think that Musk has started too early, but eg. Jeff Bezos seems to disagree. Sapienti sat.

Offline nacnud

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #30 on: 01/11/2019 12:32 pm »
What exactly has SpaceX done that hasn't been done before ?

Demonstrated the capability to profitably launch 5 tonnes to GTO for around 10K per kg. (I think I'm reading the chart right)

The New Rockets Racing to Make Space Affordable
« Last Edit: 01/11/2019 12:40 pm by nacnud »

Offline Star One

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #31 on: 01/11/2019 12:57 pm »
Well it’s going to occur at some point unless you’re a believer in the equally unlikely we are all doomed set of people. Whereas the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

"Argument to moderation (Latin: argumentum ad temperantiam)—also known as false equivalence, false compromise, [argument from] middle ground, equidistance fallacy, and the golden mean fallacy[1]—is an informal fallacy which asserts that the truth must be found as a compromise between two opposite positions" :) 

But even though it could be a logical fallacy, I kinda agree with you. We may go to Mars some day, while the technological civilization may also enter a period of decline some time later.

However, I don't think that we're going to Mars any time soon. I've seen many plans falling to dust. That's why I say - I'll believe it when I see it.

I do think that if somebody can do it, it's Musk. Compared to other famous people from the not-so-distant past like O'Neill or Zubrin, Musk isn't the next popularizer or proponent. He's actually building rockets and spacecraft.

Before Mars, however, I'd like to see human spaceflight to LEO. An it's coming after many years of delays.

So are you saying that Elon & Space X are wasting their time and money at this point developing the Starship & Super Heavy, that there’s no need for them, especially from an economic standpoint?

Offline spaceman100

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #32 on: 01/11/2019 01:53 pm »
What exactly has SpaceX done that hasn't been done before ?

Demonstrated the capability to profitably launch 5 tonnes to GTO for around 10K per kg. (I think I'm reading the chart right)

The New Rockets Racing to Make Space Affordable

That is nowhere near the Energia from Russia that lifted 200 metric tons to LEO.

But I think SpaceX has done developement in returning the first stage to pad !

Online hkultala

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #33 on: 01/11/2019 02:04 pm »

What exactly has SpaceX done that hasn't been done before ?


The most important ones:

* Developed an orbital launcher with completely private funding (Falcon 1, Rocket lab has followed with electron)
* Landed and reused a booster used for orbital launch

The more technical ones:

* Developed a rocket engine which features face shutdown, allowing removal of many valves
* Developed a full-flow-static combustion methane rocket engine

The more questionable ones:

* Sent a used car into interplanetary space
* Posted rocket launch plan rendering videos with decent rock music (muse: uprising on reusable f9 plan video)
* Named his ships based on spaceship names from the "culture"-series

Online Svetoslav

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #34 on: 01/11/2019 02:47 pm »
Well it’s going to occur at some point unless you’re a believer in the equally unlikely we are all doomed set of people. Whereas the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

"Argument to moderation (Latin: argumentum ad temperantiam)—also known as false equivalence, false compromise, [argument from] middle ground, equidistance fallacy, and the golden mean fallacy[1]—is an informal fallacy which asserts that the truth must be found as a compromise between two opposite positions" :) 

But even though it could be a logical fallacy, I kinda agree with you. We may go to Mars some day, while the technological civilization may also enter a period of decline some time later.

However, I don't think that we're going to Mars any time soon. I've seen many plans falling to dust. That's why I say - I'll believe it when I see it.

I do think that if somebody can do it, it's Musk. Compared to other famous people from the not-so-distant past like O'Neill or Zubrin, Musk isn't the next popularizer or proponent. He's actually building rockets and spacecraft.

Before Mars, however, I'd like to see human spaceflight to LEO. An it's coming after many years of delays.

So are you saying that Elon & Space X are wasting their time and money at this point developing the Starship & Super Heavy, that there’s no need for them, especially from an economic standpoint?

What I think is that Super Heavy and Starship are not the best way to go to Mars. What we need is a modular interplanetary ship to be built in orbit, not another super-heavy launch vehicle.

Offline jded

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #35 on: 01/11/2019 03:46 pm »
Well it’s going to occur at some point unless you’re a believer in the equally unlikely we are all doomed set of people. Whereas the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

"Argument to moderation (Latin: argumentum ad temperantiam)—also known as false equivalence, false compromise, [argument from] middle ground, equidistance fallacy, and the golden mean fallacy[1]—is an informal fallacy which asserts that the truth must be found as a compromise between two opposite positions" :) 

But even though it could be a logical fallacy, I kinda agree with you. We may go to Mars some day, while the technological civilization may also enter a period of decline some time later.

However, I don't think that we're going to Mars any time soon. I've seen many plans falling to dust. That's why I say - I'll believe it when I see it.

I do think that if somebody can do it, it's Musk. Compared to other famous people from the not-so-distant past like O'Neill or Zubrin, Musk isn't the next popularizer or proponent. He's actually building rockets and spacecraft.

Before Mars, however, I'd like to see human spaceflight to LEO. An it's coming after many years of delays.

So are you saying that Elon & Space X are wasting their time and money at this point developing the Starship & Super Heavy, that there’s no need for them, especially from an economic standpoint?

What I think is that Super Heavy and Starship are not the best way to go to Mars. What we need is a modular interplanetary ship to be built in orbit, not another super-heavy launch vehicle.

So, you prefer the oldschool Battleship Galactica method that was replaced (thanks to Zubrin's Mars Direct etc.) by the simpler, less expensive (!!!) option, currently known as SLS/Orion *) ?

Which would be superior according to what metric?

*) yeah I know it does not even have full Mars architecture in plans anymore

Offline Star One

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #36 on: 01/11/2019 03:54 pm »
Well it’s going to occur at some point unless you’re a believer in the equally unlikely we are all doomed set of people. Whereas the truth probably falls somewhere in the middle.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_to_moderation

"Argument to moderation (Latin: argumentum ad temperantiam)—also known as false equivalence, false compromise, [argument from] middle ground, equidistance fallacy, and the golden mean fallacy[1]—is an informal fallacy which asserts that the truth must be found as a compromise between two opposite positions" :) 

But even though it could be a logical fallacy, I kinda agree with you. We may go to Mars some day, while the technological civilization may also enter a period of decline some time later.

However, I don't think that we're going to Mars any time soon. I've seen many plans falling to dust. That's why I say - I'll believe it when I see it.

I do think that if somebody can do it, it's Musk. Compared to other famous people from the not-so-distant past like O'Neill or Zubrin, Musk isn't the next popularizer or proponent. He's actually building rockets and spacecraft.

Before Mars, however, I'd like to see human spaceflight to LEO. An it's coming after many years of delays.

So are you saying that Elon & Space X are wasting their time and money at this point developing the Starship & Super Heavy, that there’s no need for them, especially from an economic standpoint?

What I think is that Super Heavy and Starship are not the best way to go to Mars. What we need is a modular interplanetary ship to be built in orbit, not another super-heavy launch vehicle.

That’s rather old fashioned approach in my view, as that’s half my issue with SLS/Orion that it’s arguably an old way that’s more complex than it needs to be.

Offline punder

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #37 on: 01/11/2019 04:05 pm »
I'd personally not pay too much attention to the misspelling. Not everyone here is a fluent English speaker, and I'd rather be generous. It took me a long time to write the name "Squyres" correctly. I had the habit to write it as "Squires", because it's close to the English word "squirrel". In this case, I also think it's an innocent mistake - "Musk" is close to the English word "must".

Now, the second criticism - about the cultism. There's a great article on The Space Review by Dwayne Day ( http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3231/1 ). Here's an interesting quote:

" A belief in space settlement shares many characteristics with religion (see “Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids,” The Space Review, April 24, 2017). It is largely based upon emotion, although many of its adherents claim that it is based upon logic. In fact, some of the characteristics of this belief system are more akin to a cult. One of the surprising things about doomsday cults is that the failure of doomsday prophecies to occur does not usually destroy the cult and, in fact, can have the opposite effect, reinvigorating the faithful and reinforcing their devotion. This happens in many different ways, but a common one is the belief that something that the cult members did prevented, or more usually delayed, doomsday.

Without taking the analogy too far, one could ask why space settlement as an idea has been around for many decades now, has periodically increased in intensity, has not achieved any of its early key milestones, and yet still has adherents. Maybe that is because space enthusiasm is less about actual accomplishment than entertainment."

Really have to take issue with Mr. Day on this point. For virtually everyone on the planet, everything is primarily about belief. The vast majority of people do not work things out from first principles. They don't even know the first principles. Even very knowledgeable, competent people, engineers and scientists, who deal with hard facts at work, are liable to opine without adequate knowledge on subjects outside their immediate field.

By Day's definition, we are all cultists now.

Online envy887

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #38 on: 01/11/2019 04:21 pm »
Elon Musk gets a tremendous amount of hate from the "rolling coal" crowd, because Tesla (EVs in general) get tax breaks.  (Of course, no tax dollars at all support the oil industry, of course not).
So they view Musk as just another corporate welfare mooch, and therefore SpaceX is also just living off their hard earned tax dollars.

There is literally nothing more to the Musk hate than that.

Ironically, most of those people don't even pay taxes.

Online envy887

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Re: Newcomer tired of the Elon hype
« Reply #39 on: 01/11/2019 04:23 pm »
What exactly has SpaceX done that hasn't been done before ?

Demonstrated the capability to profitably launch 5 tonnes to GTO for around 10K per kg. (I think I'm reading the chart right)

The New Rockets Racing to Make Space Affordable

That is nowhere near the Energia from Russia that lifted 200 metric tons to LEO.

But I think SpaceX has done developement in returning the first stage to pad !

Energia's largest payloads were around 100 tonnes; it could not get anywhere near 200 tonnes of payload to LEO.

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