Author Topic: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM  (Read 14298 times)

Offline jpo234

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #60 on: 01/16/2019 08:24 am »
Where are these thousands upon thousands of flat antennas and their installation infrastructure to do 1 million + installs. Good luck meeting that one.

Not StarLink, but here you go:
https://twitter.com/greg_wyler/status/1081989389453066240

You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Online docmordrid

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #61 on: 01/16/2019 08:29 am »
>
On that note, where do those Google Wifi balloons get their internet access from?

AIUI,

ISP <--> ground station <--> balloon mesh network <--> users
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 08:31 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline jpo234

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #62 on: 01/16/2019 08:50 am »
On that note, where do those Google Wifi balloons get their internet access from?

Or WebPass: https://webpass.net/about_us

Quote
In 2016, we were acquired by Google Fiber.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 08:52 am by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline envy887

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #63 on: 01/16/2019 01:05 pm »
* .3 (land coverage)

This is not the relevant metric. You need the percentage of time that the satellite is above the horizon of a subscriber, which is much higher since each satellite can see 1000 km sideways, plus ships and planes. There is enough ship and plane density in the latitudes covered by Starlink that this number will approach 1.

Also, SpaceX can get much more than 20 cents per gigabyte in the remote areas where the satellites will spend a lot of time. The subscriber fee will undoubtedly vary by location and application (fixed or vehicle-mounted).

Offline jpo234

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #64 on: 01/16/2019 01:20 pm »
My assumption has always been that the last mile model for StarLink is:
1) WebPass or similar local services for densely populated areas (e.g. Cities)
2) Loon for medium population density
3) individual StarLink terminals for sparsely populated areas

This has the assumption baked in that Google is the partner that provides the customer service.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 01:35 pm by jpo234 »
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #65 on: 01/16/2019 04:40 pm »
This funding round is for the Internet transport not content providers. It is also for the SH/SS development. So a little less about Starlink revenue speculation an d a little more on how the funds will be actually used.

Offline AC in NC

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #66 on: 01/16/2019 05:05 pm »
This funding round is for the Internet transport not content providers. It is also for the SH/SS development. So a little less about Starlink revenue speculation an d a little more on how the funds will be actually used.

That's a very good point.  In hopes that we can acknowledge a bit of what both "sides" were offering.

There are a few good numbers in the counterpoint arguing against a $100B valuation.  And the established and nascent competition is not to be discounted  nor ordinary business and time risk along with uptake..   

However, there are some arguable figures within those calculations as well as valuation factors discounted by the skeptical argument and some unique advantages for Starlink.

I think it's fair to say that a valuation of $100B at the aforementioned 4000 sats is certainly not a given, but far from an impossibility.  Let's leave that there and get back on-topic.

Cheers!!!   ;)
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 05:07 pm by AC in NC »

Online ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #67 on: 01/16/2019 06:02 pm »
* .3 (land coverage)

This is not the relevant metric. You need the percentage of time that the satellite is above the horizon of a subscriber, which is much higher since each satellite can see 1000 km sideways, plus ships and planes. There is enough ship and plane density in the latitudes covered by Starlink that this number will approach 1.

Also, SpaceX can get much more than 20 cents per gigabyte in the remote areas where the satellites will spend a lot of time. The subscriber fee will undoubtedly vary by location and application (fixed or vehicle-mounted).

With full satellite constellation utilization, that is $63 billion per year. The Atlantic Ocean is about 20% of the Earth's surface. Even if we assume 10% because satellites above the ocean can service coastal land masses out to 1000 km, they would need ~$6.3 billion per year from Trans-atlantic in just the 10% left over. That is $17.3 million per day.

Quote
In 2015, 44 million seats were offered on the transatlantic routes, an increase of 6% over the previous year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_flight

Let's assume that SpaceX services this entire market with no competitors and that is their revenue over the oceans. Project the 6% growth per year out to 2025. That is 79 million passengers per year or ~200,000 passengers per day. Revenue per passenger to be 1:1 with the revenue I use for terrestrial would have to be on the order of ~$80 per passenger. Looking at in flight wifi pricing, it seems like $20 for a day is ball park. That isn't even counting revenue sharing agreements with the airlines and that is revenue per user, not revenue per passenger. So, yes, over oceans, revenue is likely to drop off significantly.

Add in that they likely won't get landing rights over Russia and China (Russia is complaining about One Web and they have contracts with them via Arianespace), this substantially offsets the portion of the oceans that have land line of sight and a .3 utilization factor is as good as any. Utilization/revenue over land isn't going to be 100% and over water it isn't going to be 0%. Whether the reality vs the calculation works out in Starlinks favor or against it...who knows.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 06:29 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #68 on: 01/16/2019 08:15 pm »
If Starlink is successfully deployed, even the initial version, valuation will be like $100 billion or so, vying for the largest private company ever. Particularly if BFR reaches orbit and the whole thing is recovered (thus making second half of Starlink viable... reusable super heavy launch by itself isn't enough to dramatically increase SpaceX's value!).

Hmm, maybe. Direct TV is worth $20 billion. Dish is worth $13 billion. Iridium is worth $2 billion. ViaSat is worth $4. Intelsat is worth $3. Add them all to SpaceX's current valuation, and you get around $70 billion. And this isn't even factoring in that Starlink is already partially priced into their current valuation. Is Starlink internet going to go into iPhones and Samsung galaxy phones? Are people going to switch off their wired internet in favor of satellite? Those are not slam dunks to put it mildly. You could try a price war with the like of Comcast, but their network is already deployed and they would be forced to match you and they could as their network is already paid for. It would take a long time for that to atrophy.

Any reason why you didn't include Comcast's market cap?  They alone are $160+ billion (high around $200 B).  If Starlink is successful, they may actually do so being partners with the various ISPs and backbone providers.  Starlink can provide high-speed Internet to almost every place on Earth; many of those communities do not have good options currently.  So the upside potential for Starlink is very high if they can actually produce and launch those satellites for a reasonable cost.  And, they'll have to keep launching replacements so it's both a money sink and a forced upgrade cycle that could continually expand bandwidth to the system.

A lot of technical and financial hurdles to clear, but the reason why SpaceX is valued currently at $30 B is Starlink's potential.

The initial claim was the claim that the initial constellation of 4000 20 gbps satellites will support a valuation of $100 billion. To compete with comcast, you need to price internet around $.2 dollars per gigabyte. The per year revenue then is ((4000 satellites * 20 gbps) /8 (bits per byte)) * 3600 (seconds in day)* .3 (land coverage) * 365 (days in year) * .2 (dollars per gigabyte) or ~$19 billion per year. Comcast's net income is more than that. As such, it won't support a Comcast like valuation of $100 billion. Not in my opinion.
No, that wasnít the original claim. Valuation is anticipatory of the next big step. If the pieces are in place for the full constellation (ie successful orbital BFR plus deployment of the initial constellation), then market cap is likely to anticipate the rest of the constellation being deployed, too, just like the current market cap anticipates a reasonably high chance of the initial deployment succeeding.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline AC in NC

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #69 on: 01/16/2019 10:21 pm »
The initial claim was the claim that the initial constellation of 4000 20 gbps satellites will support a valuation of $100 billion.
No, that wasnít the original claim. Valuation is anticipatory of the next big step. If the pieces are in place for the full constellation (ie successful orbital BFR plus deployment of the initial constellation), then market cap is likely to anticipate the rest of the constellation being deployed, too, just like the current market cap anticipates a reasonably high chance of the initial deployment succeeding.

Those are really saying the same thing different ways.  ncb1387 though is (arguably incorrectly IMO) discounting the magnitude of the forward looking growth component of the valuation based on initial constellation (which I suspect we all think is basically dependent on BFR).  I don't think it's like he's saying his view of valuation is based on spinning-off the 4K Sats with no further plans.

We really need to accept the bigger picture being argued from both "endzones".  It's both true that initial constellation MAY NOT support a $100B valuation but it's also NOT TRUE that it CANNOT.  My opinion is it's a relatively sane "stake-in-the-ground" considering potential growth.  Optimistic but not outlandishly so.  Also matters of course what we're valuing (eg:  Starlink independently or SpaceX current valuation projected out a couple years plus the Starlink add-on).

« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 10:27 pm by AC in NC »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #70 on: 01/17/2019 02:25 am »
The initial claim was the claim that the initial constellation of 4000 20 gbps satellites will support a valuation of $100 billion.
No, that wasnít the original claim. Valuation is anticipatory of the next big step. If the pieces are in place for the full constellation (ie successful orbital BFR plus deployment of the initial constellation), then market cap is likely to anticipate the rest of the constellation being deployed, too, just like the current market cap anticipates a reasonably high chance of the initial deployment succeeding.

Those are really saying the same thing different ways. ...
No, they aren't, because ncb was referring to an "initial claim," which was mine, not his.

The current valuation of SpaceX anticipates the first part of Starlink probably succeeding. If the first part DOES succeed, that improves the odds that the next phase will succeed, thus supporting my claim that the full constellation (12000 birds, upgraded capability compared to original birds) may well support a valuation of $100 billion or more even though the 4000 satellite constellation probably won't produce enough revenue by itself to justify that price.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline AC in NC

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #71 on: 01/17/2019 02:35 am »
No, they aren't, because ncb was referring to an "initial claim," which was mine, not his.

No.  I know exactly what claim ncb was referring to and exactly where you are each talking past each other.  They are basically the same thing.  But it's not worth it.  I tried.  Carry on with your stalemate from the trenches.

Offline Mongo62

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #72 on: 01/20/2019 01:48 pm »
Musk often borrows money on his Tesla shares.  My guess is thatís what he did here.

Last known data point has his pledged shares at >40% of owned.  There is a 25%LTV requirement from the BOD on his Tesla borrowings that would trigger before other risks listed in Tesla filings.

The layoffs at both companies along with the WSJ article the day before raise announcement should be taken in context together.  It sheds light on what is happening in Boca Chica.

I don't follow Tesla that closely, but IMHO the layoffs at SpaceX were part of a shift away from F9/FH design/production and towards SS/SH design/production. You do not need CF engineers or kerolox propulsion experts for SS/SH. It's unpleasant for the people who have been let go, but absolutely standard -- and indeed required to survive -- for this to happen as part of a major shift in direction in this sort of industry.

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