Author Topic: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM  (Read 14295 times)

Offline Dante2121

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #40 on: 01/03/2019 10:55 pm »
Musk often borrows money on his Tesla shares.  My guess is thatís what he did here.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #41 on: 01/04/2019 12:09 am »
SpaceX updates on new funding round

Quote
SpaceX (SPACE) discloses that it sold $227M worth of shares to 8 investors as part of its new $500M funding round.

Elon Musk is listed in the filing as one of the investors.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3420459-spacex-updates-new-funding-round

Edit: I found the SEC Form D that is the basis for the article:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000118141219000001/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml

Looks like 273 million sold. 227 million was the unsold amount.




Offline su27k

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #42 on: 01/04/2019 01:00 am »
Quote
Elon Musk is listed in the filing as one of the investors.

Is he? The form D lists him under "Related Persons", which is just a list of executives and directors, I don't think the form actually discloses who the investors are.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #43 on: 01/12/2019 02:35 am »
And it is incorrect that Musk could just choose to give himself SpaceX assets.  The board of directors would have to approve that...

maybe not?

Quote
Boring Company was spun out of SpaceX and Musk got 90 percent of its equity. And SpaceX's board -- which includes Peter Thiel, whose Founder's Fund invested in SpaceX, did not authorize Musk to channel the SpaceX funds to dig the Boring Company's tunnel.
https://www.inc.com/peter-cohan/elon-musk-just-took-peter-thiels-spacex-money-did-something-incredibly-unethical-with-it.html

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #44 on: 01/13/2019 07:15 am »
I assume the latest figure is derived from this funding round:

https://twitter.com/jonerlichman/status/1083905927999352832

Quote
SpaceX valuation:

Jan 2019: $30.5 billion
May 2018: $25 billion
Nov 2017: $20.8 billion
Jan 2015:  $10 billion
Oct 2010:   $1 billion
Jun 2009: $547 million
Aug 2008: $410 million
Mar 2007: $280 million
Mar 2005: $163 million
Dec 2002:  $27 million

Source: WSJ, Pitchbook

Edit to add: quick graph of the numbers - axis now corrected!
« Last Edit: 01/13/2019 08:50 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline philw1776

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #45 on: 01/13/2019 02:05 pm »
Log scale would help.
In round #s the first decade to 2010 growth was ~30x.  Coincidently the 2nd decade growth was also 30x to now.
IF SpaceX is worth another 30x more by 2019/2030 they will have accomplished their missions.  Although they won't need to be worth anywhere 30X more to have done so. 
"It'll bang right out!"

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #46 on: 01/13/2019 08:52 pm »
Log scale would help.
In round #s the first decade to 2010 growth was ~30x.  Coincidently the 2nd decade growth was also 30x to now.
IF SpaceX is worth another 30x more by 2019/2030 they will have accomplished their missions.  Although they won't need to be worth anywhere 30X more to have done so.

Log scale version now also attached to my previous post.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #47 on: 01/15/2019 02:45 pm »
Log scale would help.
In round #s the first decade to 2010 growth was ~30x.  Coincidently the 2nd decade growth was also 30x to now.
IF SpaceX is worth another 30x more by 2019/2030 they will have accomplished their missions.  Although they won't need to be worth anywhere 30X more to have done so.

Log scale version now also attached to my previous post.
This graph illustrates why SpaceX can get investments in the $100M's. The annual valuation increase rate is 40% (factor of 1.4).

Starlink success will maintain this valuation growth over the next decade.

Starship success will add to the growth in second half of next decade and keep it going into the next.

But they have to be successful. Else valuation growth slows and can even loose value.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2019 02:47 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #48 on: 01/16/2019 03:48 am »
If Starlink is successfully deployed, even the initial version, valuation will be like $100 billion or so, vying for the largest private company ever. Particularly if BFR reaches orbit and the whole thing is recovered (thus making second half of Starlink viable... reusable super heavy launch by itself isn't enough to dramatically increase SpaceX's value!).
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 03:49 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #49 on: 01/16/2019 03:59 am »
If Starlink is successfully deployed, even the initial version, valuation will be like $100 billion or so, vying for the largest private company ever. Particularly if BFR reaches orbit and the whole thing is recovered (thus making second half of Starlink viable... reusable super heavy launch by itself isn't enough to dramatically increase SpaceX's value!).

Hmm, maybe. Direct TV is worth $20 billion. Dish is worth $13 billion. Iridium is worth $2 billion. ViaSat is worth $4. Intelsat is worth $3. Add them all to SpaceX's current valuation, and you get around $70 billion. And this isn't even factoring in that Starlink is already partially priced into their current valuation. Is Starlink internet going to go into iPhones and Samsung galaxy phones? Are people going to switch off their wired internet in favor of satellite? Those are not slam dunks to put it mildly. You could try a price war with the like of Comcast, but their network is already deployed and they would be forced to match you and they could as their network is already paid for. It would take a long time for that to atrophy.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 04:09 am by ncb1397 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #50 on: 01/16/2019 04:09 am »
Yes, Starlink is going to be bigger than all of those combined. A lot bigger.


The world is growing.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 04:09 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #51 on: 01/16/2019 04:20 am »
Yes, Starlink is going to be bigger than all of those combined. A lot bigger.


The world is growing.

Dude, it is internet. There are a gazillion providers. And they aren't bad providers or providers in bad financial positions either that are easy targets. These players have Jeff Bezos' war chest, but with the advantage of being the established player. This isn't rocket launch. I am not talking about dialup (that is an option though if you want to pay $10 a month).
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 04:24 am by ncb1397 »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #52 on: 01/16/2019 04:26 am »
And? Youíre talking like 3-5 billion people on the Internet today, a number that will just grow. This is multiple trillion dollars per year... Not only is the market big enough for SpaceX, but itís big enough for multiple SpaceXes.

...and thereís no reason they couldnít bundle other services like TV.


Comcast has a market cap of $163 billion, and theyíre fairly US centric. Starlink will be global.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 04:28 am by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline lonestriker

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #53 on: 01/16/2019 04:47 am »
If Starlink is successfully deployed, even the initial version, valuation will be like $100 billion or so, vying for the largest private company ever. Particularly if BFR reaches orbit and the whole thing is recovered (thus making second half of Starlink viable... reusable super heavy launch by itself isn't enough to dramatically increase SpaceX's value!).

Hmm, maybe. Direct TV is worth $20 billion. Dish is worth $13 billion. Iridium is worth $2 billion. ViaSat is worth $4. Intelsat is worth $3. Add them all to SpaceX's current valuation, and you get around $70 billion. And this isn't even factoring in that Starlink is already partially priced into their current valuation. Is Starlink internet going to go into iPhones and Samsung galaxy phones? Are people going to switch off their wired internet in favor of satellite? Those are not slam dunks to put it mildly. You could try a price war with the like of Comcast, but their network is already deployed and they would be forced to match you and they could as their network is already paid for. It would take a long time for that to atrophy.

Any reason why you didn't include Comcast's market cap?  They alone are $160+ billion (high around $200 B).  If Starlink is successful, they may actually do so being partners with the various ISPs and backbone providers.  Starlink can provide high-speed Internet to almost every place on Earth; many of those communities do not have good options currently.  So the upside potential for Starlink is very high if they can actually produce and launch those satellites for a reasonable cost.  And, they'll have to keep launching replacements so it's both a money sink and a forced upgrade cycle that could continually expand bandwidth to the system.

A lot of technical and financial hurdles to clear, but the reason why SpaceX is valued currently at $30 B is Starlink's potential.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #54 on: 01/16/2019 05:19 am »
If Starlink is successfully deployed, even the initial version, valuation will be like $100 billion or so, vying for the largest private company ever. Particularly if BFR reaches orbit and the whole thing is recovered (thus making second half of Starlink viable... reusable super heavy launch by itself isn't enough to dramatically increase SpaceX's value!).

Hmm, maybe. Direct TV is worth $20 billion. Dish is worth $13 billion. Iridium is worth $2 billion. ViaSat is worth $4. Intelsat is worth $3. Add them all to SpaceX's current valuation, and you get around $70 billion. And this isn't even factoring in that Starlink is already partially priced into their current valuation. Is Starlink internet going to go into iPhones and Samsung galaxy phones? Are people going to switch off their wired internet in favor of satellite? Those are not slam dunks to put it mildly. You could try a price war with the like of Comcast, but their network is already deployed and they would be forced to match you and they could as their network is already paid for. It would take a long time for that to atrophy.

Any reason why you didn't include Comcast's market cap?  They alone are $160+ billion (high around $200 B).  If Starlink is successful, they may actually do so being partners with the various ISPs and backbone providers.  Starlink can provide high-speed Internet to almost every place on Earth; many of those communities do not have good options currently.  So the upside potential for Starlink is very high if they can actually produce and launch those satellites for a reasonable cost.  And, they'll have to keep launching replacements so it's both a money sink and a forced upgrade cycle that could continually expand bandwidth to the system.

A lot of technical and financial hurdles to clear, but the reason why SpaceX is valued currently at $30 B is Starlink's potential.

The initial claim was the claim that the initial constellation of 4000 20 gbps satellites will support a valuation of $100 billion. To compete with comcast, you need to price internet around $.2 dollars per gigabyte. The per year revenue then is ((4000 satellites * 20 gbps) /8 (bits per byte)) * 3600 (seconds in day)* .3 (land coverage) * 365 (days in year) * .2 (dollars per gigabyte) or ~$19 billion per year. Comcast's net income is more than that. As such, it won't support a Comcast like valuation of $100 billion. Not in my opinion.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 05:20 am by ncb1397 »

Offline docmordrid

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #55 on: 01/16/2019 05:29 am »
The article by WSJ quoting the StarLink satellite revenue estimates is paywalled, but this chart isn't

https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BZ810_SPACEX_9U_20170112174544.jpg
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Offline ncb1397

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #56 on: 01/16/2019 05:42 am »
The article by WSJ quoting the StarLink satellite revenue estimates is paywalled, but this chart isn't

https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BZ810_SPACEX_9U_20170112174544.jpg

These are SpaceX's own numbers (i.e. their pitch). It looks like about $500 million for internet revenue in 2019. The year is about 5% over and it is at 0. You need about a million subscribers for a whole year to reach that. That is 1 million installs. Where are these thousands upon thousands of flat antennas and their installation infrastructure to do 1 million + installs. Good luck meeting that one.

edit: Just looking at the last numbers for 2025. They are projecting 22 billion in profits on 36 billion in revenue. It is hard to find an example even close to comparable. At first, you would think Microsoft given they sell product with almost zero marginal cost. Google? Nope, not even close. If that is the case, anybody with a buck is going to be out to get them. They will be throwing money at Greg Wyler like a...well...you get the idea.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 06:03 am by ncb1397 »

Offline AC in NC

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #57 on: 01/16/2019 06:14 am »
If Starlink is successfully deployed, even the initial version, valuation will be like $100 billion or so
Hmm, maybe. Direct TV is worth ...
To compete with comcast, you need to price internet around $.2 dollars per gigabyte. The per year revenue then is ((4000 satellites * 20 gbps) /8 (bits per byte)) * 3600 (seconds in day)* .3 (land coverage) * 365 (days in year) * .2 (dollars per gigabyte) or ~$19 billion per year. Comcast's net income is more than that. As such, it won't support a Comcast like valuation of $100 billion. Not in my opinion.
They are projecting 22 billion in profits on 36 billion in revenue.
Global Internet Access Market Cap[1] is about $2T at a Price/Sales of about 1.85 and that discounts any penetration expanison or other service bundling.  A piece of the pie is large.

--  Comcast's valuation is constrained by its growth potential.
--  It's not necessarily required to compete with Comcast on price.
--  Revenue can be generated on the seas [2]
--  NIT:  Your math was right but there are 86,400 seconds in a day.
--  SEMI-NIT: Profit and Operating Income are different measures.

[1] - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-global-internet-access-market-had-total-revenues-of-9814bn-in-2016-300553419.html
[2] - https://assets.weforum.org/editor/LuTYoYw52_caPda9ay4cLZbNmFSEiqfWPoG_a5YjOSk.jpg
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 07:22 am by AC in NC »

Offline docmordrid

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #58 on: 01/16/2019 06:15 am »
>
These are SpaceX's own numbers (i.e. their pitch). It looks like about $500 million for internet revenue in 2019. The year is about 5% over and it is at 0. You need about a million subscribers for a whole year to reach that. That is 1 million installs.

Raw estimates which didn't account for unpredictables  like regulatory delays etc.

Quote
Where are these thousands upon thousands of flat antennas and their installation infrastructure to do 1 million + installs. Good luck meeting that one.
>

They've designed their own phased array, which they could farm out for fabrication or do themselves.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2018152439

They also have a silent partner; Google, which holds the rights to the meshed constellation patent and owns a piece of SpaceX. Larry Page is also a Friend of Elon from waaaayyyy back.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2019 06:18 am by docmordrid »
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Offline niwax

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Re: New purported SpaceX funding round of $500MM
« Reply #59 on: 01/16/2019 08:13 am »
Quote
Where are these thousands upon thousands of flat antennas and their installation infrastructure to do 1 million + installs. Good luck meeting that one.
>

They've designed their own phased array, which they could farm out for fabrication or do themselves.

https://patentscope.wipo.int/search/en/detail.jsf?docId=WO2018152439

They also have a silent partner; Google, which holds the rights to the meshed constellation patent and owns a piece of SpaceX. Larry Page is also a Friend of Elon from waaaayyyy back.

On that note, where do those Google Wifi balloons get their internet access from?
Which booster has the most soot? SpaceX booster launch history! (discussion)

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