Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2019?

1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
0 (0%)
11
0 (0%)
12
1 (0.7%)
13
0 (0%)
14
1 (0.7%)
15
2 (1.4%)
16
2 (1.4%)
17
3 (2.1%)
18
19 (13.4%)
19
6 (4.2%)
20
22 (15.5%)
21
10 (7%)
22
14 (9.9%)
23
12 (8.5%)
24
20 (14.1%)
25
11 (7.7%)
26
1 (0.7%)
27
1 (0.7%)
28
3 (2.1%)
29
4 (2.8%)
30
3 (2.1%)
31
0 (0%)
32
1 (0.7%)
33
0 (0%)
34
2 (1.4%)
35
1 (0.7%)
36
1 (0.7%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
0 (0%)
More than 40!!!
2 (1.4%)
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 142

Voting closed: 01/20/2019 03:18 am


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019  (Read 3101 times)

Offline vigleik

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #20 on: 12/25/2018 12:02 am »
I think they could probably do 30 if they had the payloads lined up. They obviously don’t, but I think they’ll find just a few more customers than what is currently on the manifest. I feel compelled to vote an odd number, so 23 it is.

Offline CraigLieb

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #21 on: 12/26/2018 01:25 pm »
Voted 18
The backlog burn down will reduce flights this year.
Rather be wrong on the low side this year.
On the ground floor of the National Space Foundation... Colonize Mars!

Offline Tomness

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #22 on: 12/26/2018 05:46 pm »
18.  16 from what's on the manifest and 2 Starlink.

21. I'll call the 16 on the manifest, but I show 19. 2 Starlink seems reasonable.

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #23 on: 12/28/2018 03:42 pm »
Here's a graph of one evaluation of the pace of SpaceX launches.
The main line is the number of launches in the preceding 365 days.
Make of it what you will.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #24 on: 12/28/2018 06:15 pm »
Here's a graph of one evaluation of the pace of SpaceX launches.
The main line is the number of launches in the preceding 365 days.
Make of it what you will.
Interesting, the baseline launch rate looks like 22 +-2. For 2019 this looks like it will help or true. But once Starlink starts launching in earnest, which will be a additive value for the most part above this baseline. For 2019 the couple of possible Starlink launches will disappear after into the baseline.

Online programmerdan

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #25 on: 12/28/2018 10:01 pm »
Going for 18. A bit pessimistic on crew flights, given known delays and unknown, but expected, delays.

Also expecting at least one major mission to shift to the right into 2020, either due to provider delay (payload not ready) or ripple effects of missed landings. Already some rumblings of that, and it could have carry-on impacts throughout the year.

Falcon Heavy is a big risk - so I was tempted to say only 17 - but I'll let my optimism grip me on this one and hope against hope for two successful flights for FH this coming year.

Online Stefan.Christoff.19

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #26 on: 01/03/2019 04:37 pm »
Voted 17. Same logic, but ended up one short. Shotwell's comments are what's doable if things don't get in the way. I see "things getting in the way" as more than one, but don't want to be too pessimistic and be more than two.

Offline chalz

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #27 on: 01/18/2019 10:28 pm »
Went for 15 and that is optimistic. Not many payloads and the new Dragon will shape the coming year.

The number of voters is way down on previous years. Perhaps flight rate is not something the new fans are interested in.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #28 on: 01/18/2019 10:50 pm »
L2019 = (L2018 - 2*(FH2019 -FH2018) - (F9S2019 -F9S2018)) * (WF2019/WF2018)

....

L2019 = (21 - 2*(2 - 1) - (1 -0)) * (6300/7000)

....

L2019 = 18 * ( . 9) = 16.2 ≈ 16

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2019
« Reply #29 on: 01/20/2019 05:22 am »
With the poll closed, some analysis
Same as previous years, consensus forms quickly, and doesn't change.
Using the same technique, that consensus is 21.4 +/- 3.9
Fewer than last year's 26.4 +/- 4.4, which proved to be optimistic.
Again, people had a strange preference for even numbers (90 votes) over odd (40 votes)
There is an "extremely optimistic fringe".  (I was among them.)
As before, we shall see.

edit 3.9 is the Half Width Half Max.  The plot has the value for Half Width e^-2 points.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2019 05:24 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

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