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Which section should this thread be in

Advanced Topics
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SpaceX Section
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Total Members Voted: 14

Voting closed: 12/16/2018 01:24 pm


Author Topic: Re-purposing SpaceX hardware for near term exploration of Mars  (Read 9502 times)

Online rakaydos

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The problem is that the thread OP does not agree with the rest of the forum as to what "near term SpaceX hardware" means. Red Dragon, canceled years back, is "near term", but the ship that will begin testing in 2019 "will never happen" (though we've gotten past that statement, at least)

The fact is, there is only one manned mars lander that's left the powerpoint stage. We arnt going to mars until we can get back off of it, something Red Dragon isnt capable of. The ONLY near term mars exploration option is BFS/Starship, because it's the only way home.

Offline mikelepage

I'm with Speedevil, I reject the entire premise of this post and think it's not that interesting to speculate about counterfactuals.

We have seen lots of evidence of 9 meter tooling. Scaling down would completely waste that tooling.

The problem is that the thread OP does not agree with the rest of the forum as to what "near term SpaceX hardware" means. Red Dragon, canceled years back, is "near term", but the ship that will begin testing in 2019 "will never happen" (though we've gotten past that statement, at least)

The fact is, there is only one manned mars lander that's left the powerpoint stage. We arnt going to mars until we can get back off of it, something Red Dragon isnt capable of. The ONLY near term mars exploration option is BFS/Starship, because it's the only way home.

Can I suggest to the moderators that both of the "re-purposing SpaceX hardware" threads actually belong in the SpaceX section of the forums, where there are numerous similar threads?  I enjoy talking about SpaceX as much as the next guy, but that's why I go to the SpaceX section  ::)





Online zodiacchris

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I would prefer to not have this thread in the SpaceX section, it would really not add anything given itís messed up premise...🙄
« Last Edit: 12/13/2018 07:01 am by zodiacchris »

Offline Lar

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I stand corrected.
Re-purposing SpaceX hardware for mid term exploration of Mars
Re-purposing SpaceX hardware for near term exploration of Mars
Those titles are so wildly different that I don't really see how any one could be confused.
Those titles are so wildly similar that I don't really see how any one could NOT be confused.

One of those statements is correct.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Can I suggest to the moderators that both of the "re-purposing SpaceX hardware" threads actually belong in the SpaceX section of the forums, where there are numerous similar threads?  I enjoy talking about SpaceX as much as the next guy, but that's why I go to the SpaceX section  ::)
You certainly can suggest it. Use the report to mod function to do so rather than starting (or continuing) metadiscussion.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Chris Bergin

Report to mods suggesting different options. Temp poll added so we can go with the majority ;)

Offline Lar

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Poll is closed. 14 votes is not a lot,  but a pretty wide margin to move it to SpaceX section. Moving it.

The discussion seems to have died down though. Could it be that the relevance of this has been overcome by events, with a boilerplate hopper already under construction in Boca Chica?
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online docmordrid

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>
You've missed my point entirely..

BFS only works if you've got tens of thousands of willing customers.

SH/SS may well pay for itself simply by enabling the faster mass deployment (of v2+) and replacenent/upgrading (20%/yr) of StarLink.

Some published projections show StarLink having a revenue stream of $20-$30 billion a year.

Additional revenues would be sauce for the goose.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2018 02:17 am by docmordrid »
DM

Offline Lar

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>
You've missed my point entirely..

BFS only works if you've got tens of thousands of willing customers.

SH/SS may well pay for itself simply by enabling the faster mass deployment (of v2+) and replacenent/upgrading (20%/yr) of StarLink.

Some published projections show StarLink having a revenue stream of $20-$30 billion a year.

Additional revenues would be sauce for the goose.
That's just one customer. Imagine if there were tens of thousands of willing customers each with that demand level.

If BFS hits its cost numbers, it changes everything. Those numbers are not much more than FedEx prices per KG to the other side of the US.

There are two kinds of people, those that understand this and don't bother with the "it needs lots of launches to work" because that's kind of a given, and those that don't and tediously point it out over and over as if it was an argument worth mentioning.

If you build it, they will come.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline colbourne

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The fact is, there is only one manned mars lander that's left the powerpoint stage. We arnt going to mars until we can get back off of it, something Red Dragon isnt capable of. The ONLY near term mars exploration option is BFS/Starship, because it's the only way home.
Is this really the only option. I expect there would be many people willing to carry out a one way trip to Mars (at least with no option of return in the first 4 years). I would not expect a NASA mission to carry out a one way mission, but is there anything stopping volunteers from doing this. It makes more sense as the risk of the return trip is cut out, return trip fuel does not need to be made , the extra mass can be used to make surviving on Mars much more comfortable and safe with hundreds of extra tonnes of supplies.
Having a crew on Mars would make setting up the base much easier as robots are likely to have malfunctions caused by very minor problems easily fixed by an on-site engineer.

Offline Lar

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With a one way you've committed to resupply for .. 50 years or more... It's like getting a pet, you don't just stop feeding it when you're bored.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline colbourne

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As we will probably have to stay on Mars for at least two years anyway for the first mission, I think that just staying alive should be the top priority at first.
Provisions for a crew of four to last four years would be quite light, assuming water is available. If the budget is limited, I am sure many astronauts would prefer more provisions, equipment and living space than the extra weight and work of generating fuel.
I dont mean to force the crew to stay on Mars for 50 years, but removing the short term plan of return in two years will allow more capacity to increase the safety of the base, which I feel should always be the top priority.
Also I feel if the craft has to be refueled for return to Earth, the chance of people ever landing on Mars is probably much reduced. The probability of a person staying alive is probably much higher staying on Mars than attempting to return for the same budget.

Offline Lar

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As we will probably have to stay on Mars for at least two years anyway for the first mission, I think that just staying alive should be the top priority at first.
Provisions for a crew of four to last four years would be quite light, assuming water is available. If the budget is limited, I am sure many astronauts would prefer more provisions, equipment and living space than the extra weight and work of generating fuel.
I dont mean to force the crew to stay on Mars for 50 years, but removing the short term plan of return in two years will allow more capacity to increase the safety of the base, which I feel should always be the top priority.
Also I feel if the craft has to be refueled for return to Earth, the chance of people ever landing on Mars is probably much reduced. The probability of a person staying alive is probably much higher staying on Mars than attempting to return for the same budget.

Not sure I follow you.

Once ISRU is working, instead of one expendable(and expended) ship landing with supplies per synod, there will be an ever increasing swarm of traffic on both directions. More stuff sent means better survival chances (first aid to clinic to full blown hospital, for example) even if one stays.

I don't think you get the big picture, not completely.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Slarty1080

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As we will probably have to stay on Mars for at least two years anyway for the first mission, I think that just staying alive should be the top priority at first.
Provisions for a crew of four to last four years would be quite light, assuming water is available. If the budget is limited, I am sure many astronauts would prefer more provisions, equipment and living space than the extra weight and work of generating fuel.
I dont mean to force the crew to stay on Mars for 50 years, but removing the short term plan of return in two years will allow more capacity to increase the safety of the base, which I feel should always be the top priority.
Also I feel if the craft has to be refueled for return to Earth, the chance of people ever landing on Mars is probably much reduced. The probability of a person staying alive is probably much higher staying on Mars than attempting to return for the same budget.

Not sure I follow you.

Once ISRU is working, instead of one expendable(and expended) ship landing with supplies per synod, there will be an ever increasing swarm of traffic on both directions. More stuff sent means better survival chances (first aid to clinic to full blown hospital, for example) even if one stays.

I don't think you get the big picture, not completely.
I think the diference between you is is baked into the difference between first mission and subsequent missions as well as "once ISRU is working"
The first words spoken on Mars: "Humans have been wondering if there was any life on the planet Mars for many decades Ö well ... there is now!"

Offline Lar

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On the notional time line, first unmanned landings in 22, (2 ships) and manned landings in 24 (4 ships) ... ISRU will be *known to work* sometime in mid/late 22, well before the launch in 24. It will be *working* shortly after the landing in 24.

Adjust the dates as necessary for slips but... second landing and a few months == working. First mission.
« Last Edit: 01/02/2019 05:08 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline DecoLV

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It occurs to me that some of this, e.g. mining, could be done with Red Dragon. A small drill setup could fit inside a cargo Dragon, with robotics to open the side hatch and extend arms out the door, couldn't it? Maybe if it hadn't been cancelled in 2018, a Red Dragon could be probing for methane deposits right now!

Offline Yaotzin

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It occurs to me that some of this, e.g. mining, could be done with Red Dragon. A small drill setup could fit inside a cargo Dragon, with robotics to open the side hatch and extend arms out the door, couldn't it? Maybe if it hadn't been cancelled in 2018, a Red Dragon could be probing for methane deposits right now!
Would methane really help?

Offline Lar

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It occurs to me that some of this, e.g. mining, could be done with Red Dragon. A small drill setup could fit inside a cargo Dragon, with robotics to open the side hatch and extend arms out the door, couldn't it? Maybe if it hadn't been cancelled in 2018, a Red Dragon could be probing for methane deposits right now!
Would methane really help?
I don't think so. There would still remain oxygen generation, which would probably be from CO2. So you have avoided some things but not all (you still have to gather CO2 in either case)
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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