Author Topic: Predictions 2019  (Read 10936 times)

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #20 on: 12/01/2018 04:33 am »
Okay here goes:

- Geopolitical tensions come to a head like I thought they would this year. A “Cuban missile crisis” event overshadows DM-2 and Christmas/New Year’s, the idea of a Space Force gets big boost because of this, war drums ring in 2020, will severely disrupt the scheduled flights of Western satellites and astronauts flying aboard Russian rockets

- SpaceX flies 20 F9/FH launches next year, all successfully

- SpaceIL lander launched by SX lands successfully on Moon. By end of year more private lunar missions are on their way to the launch pad

- Elon Musk dials back his more “out there” antics, i.e. no more pot smoking on podcasts, etc., presents a more business-like demeanor

- BFS/Starship test prototype unveiled and transported to Boca Chica but no flights before end of year, close though

- Elon announces another customer for a human passenger Starship flight

- DM-1 successfully flies in June, DM-2 successfully flies with crew just two weeks before Christmas 2019

- Boeing Starliner uncrewed flight flies in November, crewed flight pushed into mid-2020

- One US orbital launch failure, probably involving a smaller launcher (Pegasus/Virgin Orbit/Vector, etc.) Big players are successful

- Electron flies 10 times with one anomaly, the Wallops pad is on line at end of year

- New Shepard FINALLY puts people over the Karman line, space tourist flights finally start

- Virgin Galactic puts people above USAF space line at 50 miles, one lightly loaded flight goes past Karman line

- Stratolaunch plane makes first flight, does Pegasus captive carry flight before end of 2019

- New Horizons flies past Ultima Thule and mission makes remarkable discovery regarding Kuiper Belt, Ultima Thule flyby shocks even veteran space observers with what it discovers

- InSight’s mole makes it down 16 feet and discovers habitable environment. Follow on plans made for an Insight 2 probe with ability to search for life underground

- TESS discovers system with possible Earth-like planet around a bright nearby star

- CHEOPS launches successfully and starts its exoplanet discovery mission

- First exomoon finally confirmed

- Another exoplanet found to have a Saturn style ring system

- Planet 9 confirmed, Planet 10 theorized in same manner as Planet 9 was

- Chandrayaan lunar mission flies successfully

- Chang’e 5 Chinese lunar mission delayed to 2020 after rocket and spacecraft issues

- Arianespace successfully flies all missions as do Japanese. Russians and Chinese suffer a few launch failures/partial failures, though none on crewed flights

- Soyuz crew capsule flies successfully during its missions

- Russians don’t fly Nauka

- SLS first flight officially announced for 2021. Toward the end of the year the SLS program finally gets on track toward its new launch date with more optimism about meeting it, even as Congress whispers about possibly cancelling it.

- By the end of the year JWST starts to overcome its problems, its 2021 launch date looks solid

- Europa lander shelved but Europa Clipper on solid footing toward 2022-24 launch

- Dragonfly picked as New Frontiers mission

- First mission under new commercial Moon initiative approved, funded, and given launch date at end of year

- Opportunity phones home early in 2019 and mission continues

- Curiosity makes a discovery that reignites debate about present Martian life

- Parker Solar Probe makes discovery about sun that dramatically improves CME/solar flare predictions

- There will be a supernova visible to the naked eye in the night sky sometime in 2019

- I will finish at least one space related model

- I will attend at least one test firing in Promontory, though no launch trips because I will be in transition from my current job
« Last Edit: 12/01/2018 04:57 am by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2019
« Reply #21 on: 12/01/2018 05:20 pm »
NASA and Breakthrough should have preliminary project requirements by June 2019 for their Enceladus mission. Provide a mission concept review later in the year, and arrive at a key decision point by next December.

Not really predictions by me as they are from New Scientist’s article on the proposed mission.
« Last Edit: 12/01/2018 05:24 pm by Star One »

Offline Ludus

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #22 on: 12/03/2018 04:33 am »

...
2. Space Tourism will still be pushed as being, "In the future" but with no dates given or hardware getting close to actually carrying people into space
I feel very confident in these predictions...  ;)

Thoughts and Questions:

* Would New Sheppard flying tourists negate your prediction?

You really think Blue Origin is going to be flying people into space next year? Maybe you know something I don't (which is very likely) but I wouldn't bet a buck on that happening next year.

...

Nah, I would not bet on it either.   They have flown their rocket several times, so there is that.  And they have a fancy website ....  kidding.   

I think that they have the capability, but will the lawyers deem the risks small enough?

I don’t see the evidence that they really have the capability to do what the business model calls for, launch at least once a week continuously. Before they launch paying customers I’d expect to see the thing launching on a weekly basis for at least a few months with employees aboard. A handful of widely spaced test flights doesn’t build confidence that this is a proven system.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #23 on: 12/10/2018 05:05 pm »
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019

This happened sooner than you thought!

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #24 on: 12/10/2018 05:18 pm »
ISS takes an orbital debris hit audible to the crew, but no hull breach or depressurization.

Offline Oumuamua

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #25 on: 12/14/2018 10:19 pm »
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019

This happened sooner than you thought!

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space

Don't worry! it can leave the solar system again in 2019.
Relevant xkcd link for voyager 1:



https://xkcd.com/1189/

Offline freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #26 on: 12/14/2018 11:49 pm »
- Voyager 2 reaches interstellar space in early 2019

This happened sooner than you thought!

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-s-voyager-2-probe-enters-interstellar-space

Don't worry! it can leave the solar system again in 2019.
Relevant xkcd link for voyager 1:



https://xkcd.com/1189/

Also waiting to hear that Insight has "discovered" water on Mars.

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #27 on: 12/17/2018 04:33 am »
My predictions for 2019... somewhat rehashed from 2018

2018:
  -- guesses: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1759927#msg1759927
  -- results: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44307.msg1888676#msg1888676

- SpaceX will not lose any payloads this year and will end the year with a robust flight cadence.  (I guessed 30 in the poll again, that's probably high but 15+ would be a win for this prediction)
- SpaceX will launch less than 6 missions with expendable cores (up from last year's prediction of 3 or less)
- SpaceX will recover at least 90% of the cores they attempt to recover (they missed 95% which was my prediction, so being more conservative)
- FH will launch at least twice, at least once with mission success but not all cores will necessarily be recovered
- Boca Chica will not launch anything orbital in 2019 but progress will be made and there will be suborbital hops (revised from last year)
- There will be revisions to various paperwork, or legislative action, to increase allowable flight cadence at BC (new)
- We'll see a testbed vehicle using Raptors to reduce BFS risk unveiled and something will fly from BC
- CommsX constellation will see at least another 10 test satellites launched (rideshare or dedicated mission)
- TBC will win at least one additional major infrastructure project and start serious tunneling on more than one project. Good progress on Dodger Stadium link, if not actually completed.
- Skeptics will continue to deny that TBC is doing anything special and doubt the speedups
- Dragon 2 will enter service, or at least trials, including with passengers (repeat of last year)
- Tesla will unveil a rover prototype (repeat of last year)
- SpaceX will solve fairing recovery and at least 40% of recoverable fairings will be recovered via either catching or fishing them out. At least 1 fairing half will be reused successfully.
- We will see at least one more radical change in BFS/Starship/SuperHeavy configuration
- There will be at least one more name change of one or the other or both elements in 2019
- Some non flight elements of the Mars plan will be revealed (ISRU, Habs, a rover or crane, etc)

- Starliner will not launch any passengers in 2019 (but Dragon 2 will, see above)

- ULA will get closer to ACES but won't be all the way there (threepeat)
- ULA will launch at least one IVF experiment on a Centaur (threepeat)
- ULA will remain in denial about reuse even as SpaceX eats their lunch (repeat, and kind of a gimme)

- Blue will launch New Shepard at least 6 times, some with paying cargo. and some with humans, but possibly not for pay.
- Blue will unveil a New Glenn vehicle of some sort (fit test, static test article, etc) and make progress on their pad. (repeat)
- Jeff Bezos will make at least one snarky and patently false comment about SpaceX, or will be snarky instead of congratulatory when SpaceX does something historic (repeat)
- Blue will continue to be way less open than SpaceX (repeat, gimme)

- SLS will not be cancelled but will slip in some way... (repeat, gimme)
- The Lunar Gateway will plod onwards, drawing lots of OldSpace interest like flies to honey but won't have a defined mission that actually makes engineering or technical sense. (gimme)

- Rocketlabs Electron will launch at least 8 times. At least six launches will be a success.

- VG WILL launch paying passengers in 2019
- VO will have a successful test launch from Cosmic Girl
- Stratolaunch's Roc will progress from taxi tests to have independent flight, and captive carry tests as well, but no launch of Pegasus or anything else.

- There will be a shakeout in the smallsat launcher biz. At least one of Vector/Firefly won't launch anything and at least one startup in existence at the start of 2019 will exit by the end of 2019
- XCOR won't come back from the dead, sadly

- Some private entity will succeed in landing their lander on the moon (possibly SpaceIL).

- NSF will debut a new look and many people will whinge about it (repeat, gimme)
- Tapatalk signatures will continue to plague forum posts (repeat, gimme)
« Last Edit: 12/20/2018 11:47 pm by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline saliva_sweet

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #28 on: 12/20/2018 08:22 pm »
- Elon Musk will show Jim Cantrell how business is done by selling a repurposed watertower (it will even vent lox) to investors for billions of additional capital.

- Insight seismometer will work and return interesting data, but exposes the inadequacy of the mission design. Proper mars seismometry mission with multiple landers will be included in the next decadal survey.

- Vulcan will continue to progress at a glacial pace (no visible progress will happen) even compared to SLS.

- SLS will make pregress, but fundamental design issues in the engine section mean years of additional delays.

Online Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #29 on: 12/20/2018 08:43 pm »
- VO will have a successful test launch from Roc
Fairly confident that is not in the plans, but I'd pay to see a LauncherOne and Pegasus drag race. :)
I tried it at home

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #30 on: 12/20/2018 11:41 pm »
- VO will have a successful test launch from Roc
Fairly confident that is not in the plans, but I'd pay to see a LauncherOne and Pegasus drag race. :)
LOL that was a slip. It's not 2019 yet so I'm going to fix that. But leaving this here as acknowledgment of my flub, er.. mashup.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #31 on: 12/21/2018 12:05 am »
- VO will have a successful test launch from Roc
Fairly confident that is not in the plans, but I'd pay to see a LauncherOne and Pegasus drag race. :)
LOL that was a slip. It's not 2019 yet so I'm going to fix that. But leaving this here as acknowledgment of my flub, er.. mashup.
Of course, now that you have changed it, it will defy all odds and actually happen.
I tried it at home

Offline spaceman100

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #32 on: 12/21/2018 03:12 pm »
I predict that an enigmatic multibillionaire will build an SSTO capable rocket sled system into the Rockies in 2019.

Also in 2019 an expedition will be commanded to explore and visit the moon of Jupiter called...EUROPA !

It takes 2 years to do the expedition, maybe starting early as 2035.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(moon)

No only has in oxygen to breath, but water and hydrogen too.

----

Also a constant small scale rocket sled launch company will start "everyman " space flights.

World will also see a fourth manned spaceflight capable nation.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2018 05:58 pm by spaceman100 »

Offline chairman888

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #33 on: 12/21/2018 04:05 pm »
Surprised that this hasn't been mentioned:

Chang'e 4 will successfully land on the lunar far-side.   Rover ends up lasting longer than Chang'e 3's rover Yutu (Jade Rabbit).
« Last Edit: 12/21/2018 04:09 pm by chairman888 »

Offline Lar

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #34 on: 12/21/2018 08:31 pm »
Also in 2019 an expedition will be commanded to explore and visit the moon of Jupiter called...EUROPA !

It takes 2 years to do the expedition, maybe starting early as 2035.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europa_(moon)

No only has in oxygen to breath, but water and hydrogen too.
Please use the edit (modify) function on your posts.Edit all your predictions into one post. If you need to make corrections, edit that post, don't just reply. Thank you. (we haven't yet enforced one post per poster but we will if we have to)

Edit: I made your correction to the original post, then moved your second prediction into the original post.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 02:44 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #35 on: 12/22/2018 02:22 am »
Spacex Dragon V2 visits ISS and they'll get closer to reaching 30 launches in one year the test article for Starship is revealed but it'll be more like Grasshopper than something close to the final design.

Virgin Galactic has more successful test flights and may carry it's first tourists at the end of the year while Virgin Orbit gets into space the first try.

The Boeing Starliner visits ISS.

SNC Dreamchaser flight prototype completed maybe a test flight at a the end of the year.

Masten Space reveals they have been working on a lunar lander along the lines of Xeus.

Blue Origin more flights of New Shepard New Glenn hardware shown.
They may announce they too will carry tourists on New Shepard.

Stratolaunch more tests of carrier aircraft and possible first flight.
Hardware for Karken shown.
More details on the Black ice space plane.

SLS and Orion will continue though the first flight may not happen until late 2020.
There's talk about possibly using Falcon Heavy, New Glenn or Vulcan for Orion missions instead.

Rocket lab launches 15 missions.

Russia will reveals they plan an RLV.

China Chang'e 4 lands  successfully and the rover is more successful.
They offer to buy RD-191s from Russia.

Japan Jaxa has 8 successful launches and a possible crew vehicle is announced.

Interstellar Technologies has a successful flight on their next try.

ESA ArianeGroup continues work on Ariane 6 as an expendable launcher while the  Prometheus engine and reusable vehicles based on it gain political traction.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 02:53 am by Patchouli »

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2019
« Reply #36 on: 12/22/2018 08:44 am »
Europa Clipper escapes from the SLS to be launched instead on a Falcon Heavy with a Star upper stage.

The Europa lander is formally cancelled.

The Enceladus mission moves ahead at Breakthrough with NASA assistance.

Planet Nine is finally observed.

The first Exomoon is confirmed.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2018 08:50 am by Star One »

Offline TakeOff

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #37 on: 12/23/2018 12:36 pm »
The Gatehell Moondoggle will be canceled by the new Congress and the president will make a show out of returning Americans to the surface of the Moon before the Chinese, using private American space companies in the American way to make America First on the Moon again. Without that "Oreo space raft capsicule" as the president has called it.
« Last Edit: 12/23/2018 12:40 pm by TakeOff »

Online Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #38 on: 12/24/2018 06:21 am »
NASA planetary program
        Europa lander canceled.
                Doesn't make sense to design until Europa orbiter studies Europa in detail first.

Space Tourism
        Blue Origin
                Manned flights of New Shepard by end of Q2
                Jeff Bezos takes flight in Q3 to show customers ready
                Commercial flights with tourists start in Q4
        Virgin Galactic
                FUll duration burn and flight above Karman line in Q1
                Richard Branson takes flight in Q2
                First tourist flight in Q3

Commercial Crew
        Dragon
                Demo 1 test flight a success in January
                Demo 2 with crew on board flies by end of July
                One crew rotation flight by end of year
        CST-100
                Crewed test flight pushed to October and successful

Space Telescopes
        Hubble
                Fails for good in Q4
                New debate starts on what to replace with
        James Webb
                Another $250 million in overruns
                Launch delayed until 2022

SLS
        Vote in house to cancel - survives by one vote.
        Congress asks questions about alternatives

Orion
        After close vote in Congress saves SLS discussion of alternative launchers heats up
                Possibility of using New Glenn privately discussed between Lockheed and Blue Origin
                Discussion also with ULA about Vulcan ACES with refueling
        Discuss with ESA possibility of bigger service module with greater Delta-V
        Look at using ACES or Centaur as service module

SpaceX
        Falcon 9 perfect record - One first stage gets to its fifth flight
        Two Falcon Heavy launches
        Dragon - See above
        Starship
                Steady development, but slower than expected
                Quiet discussions with NASA about possible alternative to SLS - specific Senator blows his top

Blue Origin
        New Glenn
                First stage prototype built and fit checked on launch pad that is not done
                Second stage details emerge - future version will be refuelable
                Space capsule details begin to emerge
        New Moon Lander
                Details of cargo version will be made public

ULA
        All Atlas V and Delta VI launches successful
        Vulcan development accelerates since engine selection done
        Proposes Centaur as tug for three stage lunar lander 

Small Launchers
        Virgin Orbit
                Two successful launches
        Rocket Lab
                Continues to grow

Stratolauncher
        Continues to move forward with test flights of carrier aircraft
        Rocket development continues - no launches on 2019

Lunar landers
        NASA continues to push 3 stage lander that includes tug
        At least 6 companies will propose a detailed path to manned landers

ISS
        Extended to 2030
        Commercial take over not deemed viable

Gateway
        Becomes official program with marginal support
        Orbit up in the air as SLS/Orion draws heat from Congress
        NASA, ESA and JAXA commit to build modules
        Russia - talk but no agreement to contribute
        PPE contract awarded
        UAE, Israel, South Korea, and Australia engage wanting to be part of return to Moon
                 Commit to Contribute something
        China - if trade deal worked out including respecting intellectual property (big if) talks to include start

I'm predicting an optimistic year with lots of positive activity

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Predictions 2019
« Reply #39 on: 12/24/2018 10:55 am »
What matters most to me is that 2019 will be the most interesting, significant and diverse year for spaceflight (both crewed and uncrewed) for a long time. Although I expect subsequent years to be even better.

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